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Will Cav make it too Paris?

JimD666JimD666 Posts: 98
Just wondering what everyone else thinks.
Heart say of course he will. Head says no chance in hell.
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  • First.AspectFirst.Aspect Posts: 6,695
    Hard two say.
  • Lanterne_RogueLanterne_Rogue Posts: 3,255
    Noo

    (hope I'm wrong though)
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 25,272
    Stage by stage:

    14 - No problem. Danger rating *
    15 - A problem with three big climbs, but not HC, and a small unclassified climb to start with that will mean a manic start. Get over that in the bunch and he should be OK. DR *****
    16 - Quite an early cat 2, but long stretches between climbs and a long run in. DR ***
    17 - A long flat 110km run-in to the first climb for 176km stage. DR **
    18 - Again a long run in to the first climb. Then Two HCs. Fatigue an issue for everyone at this stage. DR ****
    19 - Flat DR *
    20 - Time trial DR *
    21 - Flat DR *
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  • darkhairedlorddarkhairedlord Posts: 6,925
    He's riding better than he ever has.
    He'll roll in too Paris and win the sprint down the Champs-Elysees on one wheel.
  • pblakeneypblakeney Posts: 15,818
    Peace off cake.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • No_Ta_DoctorNo_Ta_Doctor Posts: 11,002
    Know problem imo.
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  • bianchi_davebianchi_dave Posts: 425
    Should doo. Sincerely hope he does. Sunday probably the biggest banana skin, especially if a major GC battle kicks off, but this doesn't seem likely, given the lead Pog has
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  • MattFalleMattFalle Posts: 5,121
    over all, why knot?
  • dannbodgedannbodge Posts: 975
    Yeah. They've managed the other hard days to perfection, getting in the time cut without giving too much time away
  • MattFalleMattFalle Posts: 5,121
    He's done it quite a few times before so I would have fought that he and his DS staff would know what they were doing to get him their.
  • amrushtonamrushton Posts: 1,027
    That team are all in now. Unless he gets sick or injured he's done it before enough times. On stage 19 when Evans won the tour, Cav did AdH in 55 mins. Thats a good time for anyone. Ok few yrs ago but why not. Get him to Paris in green, just that is a fairytale ending. To win there? Legendary. To stand on the podium, in green, look out and say I did it must be the way to bow out. The Gods have smiled on him so far but he is better being Daedalus than Icarus.
  • johnboy183johnboy183 Posts: 806
    Abso-bloody-lutely
  • ProssPross Posts: 28,252
    Stage 18 is probably the big risk due to its length meaning the cutoff will be quite short. The plus point is that all of the bigger mountain stages seem to be back loaded. A fast pace early on where it is quite flat could be helpful as it will push up the stage average speed and therefore increase the percentage of winners time allowed.

    Those medium mountain stages could possibly be tricky if the likes of Bike Exchange, JV or Bahrain push it hard early on.
  • above_the_cowsabove_the_cows Posts: 11,274
    amrushton said:

    That team are all in now. Unless he gets sick or injured he's done it before enough times. On stage 19 when Evans won the tour, Cav did AdH in 55 mins. Thats a good time for anyone. Ok few yrs ago but why not. Get him to Paris in green, just that is a fairytale ending. To win there? Legendary. To stand on the podium, in green, look out and say I did it must be the way to bow out. The Gods have smiled on him so far but he is better being Daedalus than Icarus.

    After having already done the Télégraphe almost from the gun and the Galibier on that stage, and the Agnel, Izoard and Galibier the day before.
    Correlation is not causation.
  • pblakeneypblakeney Posts: 15,818

    amrushton said:

    That team are all in now. Unless he gets sick or injured he's done it before enough times. On stage 19 when Evans won the tour, Cav did AdH in 55 mins. Thats a good time for anyone. Ok few yrs ago but why not. Get him to Paris in green, just that is a fairytale ending. To win there? Legendary. To stand on the podium, in green, look out and say I did it must be the way to bow out. The Gods have smiled on him so far but he is better being Daedalus than Icarus.

    After having already done the Télégraphe almost from the gun and the Galibier on that stage, and the Agnel, Izoard and Galibier the day before.
    That's quite the collection of climbs.
    I can't get people's obsession with AdH. Dutch Corner aside all it has going for it is that it is short enough to race up.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • above_the_cowsabove_the_cows Posts: 11,274
    pblakeney said:

    amrushton said:

    That team are all in now. Unless he gets sick or injured he's done it before enough times. On stage 19 when Evans won the tour, Cav did AdH in 55 mins. Thats a good time for anyone. Ok few yrs ago but why not. Get him to Paris in green, just that is a fairytale ending. To win there? Legendary. To stand on the podium, in green, look out and say I did it must be the way to bow out. The Gods have smiled on him so far but he is better being Daedalus than Icarus.

    After having already done the Télégraphe almost from the gun and the Galibier on that stage, and the Agnel, Izoard and Galibier the day before.
    That's quite the collection of climbs.
    I can't get people's obsession with AdH. Dutch Corner aside all it has going for it is that it is short enough to race up.
    Me neither to be honest... I mean it's a hard climb but there are other hard climbs around there e.g. Granon which is much higher, plus there are too many trees meaning censored views when riding up and too much undergrowth for large things to die in and cause an almighty stink for six hairpins (yes I am still haunted by the smell so rank that I could taste it because there was no way I was able to regulate my breathing by breathing in through my nose).
    Correlation is not causation.
  • fliteflite Posts: 119
    DQS will need Declerq to recover from todays crash and help control the race?
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 25,272
    edited 9 July
    pblakeney said:



    That's quite the collection of climbs.
    I can't get people's obsession with AdH. Dutch Corner aside all it has going for it is that it is short enough to race up.

    And even then the crowds are too dense for a lot of it to allow actual racing.

    (Dense has two meanings)

    I think the multiple hairpins make it quite good for photos which will have added to its mythology
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  • mididoctorsmididoctors Posts: 9,860
    flite said:

    DQS will need Declerq to recover from todays crash and help control the race?

    JA has drawn the short straw I think as a stand in
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  • First.AspectFirst.Aspect Posts: 6,695
    I don't think heel bough too the presser. Two much hat steak.
  • blazing_saddlesblazing_saddles Posts: 17,909
    One thing for sure, if he does get to Paris, he will be the first rider to finish the 2021 Tour de France.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 25,272

    One thing for sure, if he does get to Paris, he will be the first rider to finish the 2021 Tour de France.


    For the archives back in 2009.

    https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/sport/sport-headlines/british-guy-did-not-win-tour-de-france-200907271935
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • larkimlarkim Posts: 2,369
    Didn't Declerque miss the cut off?
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  • orraloonorraloon Posts: 8,548
    Not according to PCS.
  • Lanterne_RogueLanterne_Rogue Posts: 3,255
    larkim said:

    Didn't Declerque miss the cut off?

    No, had something around two and a half minutes in hand. What shape he's in for toomorrow is the big unknown.
  • davidofdavidof Posts: 2,512



    After having already done the Télégraphe almost from the gun and the Galibier on that stage, and the Agnel, Izoard and Galibier the day before.

    From memory he was outside the time limit on that stage after some of the punchers decided to put him to the sword.

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  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 25,272
    There should be a special dispensation for riders like DeClerq that sit on the front for stage after stage.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • Lanterne_RogueLanterne_Rogue Posts: 3,255
    RichN95. said:

    There should be a special dispensation for riders like DeClerq that sit on the front for stage after stage.

    I don't know about that, but for the last few years I've wondered if the time limits aren't a bit harsh, especially with the trend towards shorter mountain stages that are raced harder from the start. Where's the fun in sprint stages when most of the sprinters have already been sent home?
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 25,272

    RichN95. said:

    There should be a special dispensation for riders like DeClerq that sit on the front for stage after stage.

    I don't know about that, but for the last few years I've wondered if the time limits aren't a bit harsh, especially with the trend towards shorter mountain stages that are raced harder from the start. Where's the fun in sprint stages when most of the sprinters have already been sent home?

    If you go and find the Formigal thread from the 2016 Vuelta, I think you will find there was a big debate as to whether half the field should be sent home (including all but one of Sky). Now that stage is just remembered for the GC implications of Froome losing time. Nobody lost anything from keeping riders in the race.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 55,921 Lives Here
    Course he’ll get there.

    Honestly.

    You guys to know the TV plays up the jeopardy to make it more exciting, right?
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