TDF 2021 - Rest day 1 - *SPOILERS *

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  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,320
    edited July 2021

    phreak said:



    I think this also underlines that the autobus are not just pootling along. They're still riding hard, they're just not as fast as those at the sharp end.

    There was a moment in Sunday where the Autobots had to average just over 18kmh to make the cut, and the fastest rider had averaged 19. That included the descent, where they'd probably match or exceed his speed, but still... Also it suggests it was the first part that really did the damage as by that point they were riding to 5% of the leading riders, not the 16% cut.
    Are you sure about those speeds? Do you mean mph rather than kmh?
    In 2019 on the day of the Tignes stage, I rode from Bourg to Tignes, and from Seez to the top of the dam at Tignes I averaged 18.4 kmh over the 21.4 kms of the strava segment. OK they went up the side road from Les Breviers and not the main road, but i wasn't exactly pushing it that day.
    Closest I've come in that area is Bourg St. Maurice to Lanslevillard which with detours took in Tignes, Iseran and Mont Cenis. Even fat old me on holiday managed the 106 km and 2968m climbing at over 17 kph. Not a boast, but a very good day. 😉😎
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,143
    Just looking at the PCS first week stats, and the last time the gap to 2nd and the gap to 10th was greater at this point than now was 2004, when Thomas Voeckler had a 2:53 gap over Stuart O'Grady in 2nd and 10th place was over 10 minutes down.

    Last comparable gap was 2012 when Wiggins had 1:53 over 2nd, and 5:29 over 10th.

    Last time the gap to 2nd was this large was 2007 when... err... Rasmussen had 2:35 over 2nd and 5:06 over 10th.
  • gsk82
    gsk82 Posts: 3,599
    If he gets to the end I think he'll win it comfortably. Are there many more short mountain stages? It seems to be those where they struggle to make the time cut, without vast expanses of flat land bumping up the cut off time.
    "Unfortunately these days a lot of people don’t understand the real quality of a bike" Ernesto Colnago
  • Lanterne_Rogue
    Lanterne_Rogue Posts: 4,332
    Just seen autobus got corrected to autobots. Kind of like that...

    With regards to Cavendish going HD, if he doesn't lose form (an unknown given his prep), where's he likely to be shifted? Stage 9 was worse for being relatively short and with a punchy climb very early on - the remaining stages seem to have relatively longer in the valleys or on false flats from the profiles, which has to work in favour of the gruppetto.
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,652
    Don't forget the rain. The gruppetto gain valuable time on descents, which would have been bloody tricky on the wet and ropey roads on Sunday.

    Things that are bad for the gruppetto:
    Short mountain stages
    Uphill starts
    Wet descents
    Manic racing
    Big breaks
    No flat sections
    Mountain top finishes

    Sunday had all of them.
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  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,320
    I remember the Col du Pre descent as being particularly slow and technical.
    That was in the dry.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,652
    pblakeney said:

    I remember the Col du Pre descent as being particularly slow and technical.
    That was in the dry.

    Watching it live was harrowing. Dodgy surface, off camber bends, uneven gradient, the moto did a close up of the road at one point, if the gruppetto had seen that I think they'd have got off then and there.
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  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,143
    edited July 2021
    pblakeney said:

    I remember the Col du Pre descent as being particularly slow and technical.
    That was in the dry.

    Col du Pre descent only went down a little bit to the barrage, then up the Cormet de Roseland. Roseland descent not that technical apart from one section, I think. I wasn't any slower than usual down that one...

    If you went down the way they climbed the Col du Pre, that would be pretty twisty.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    Cav has it sown up

    After watching the ITV 4 highlights show I'm less confident he'll make it to Paris

    I'd give him a 40 % chance
    If I was a bookie I'd think about offering you less than 10/1 for him to beat Merckx's record this Tour
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,320

    pblakeney said:

    I remember the Col du Pre descent as being particularly slow and technical.
    That was in the dry.

    Col du Pre descent only went down a little bit to the barrage, then up the Cormet de Roseland. Roseland descent not that technical apart from one section, I think. I wasn't any slower than usual down that one...

    If you went down the way they climbed the Col du Pre, that would be pretty twisty.
    That bit was enough to remove any chance of upping my average speed though. 😉
    Might be short but it was slow, slow, slow. Especially with cars coming the other way.
    Not their problem though.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,143
    pblakeney said:

    pblakeney said:

    I remember the Col du Pre descent as being particularly slow and technical.
    That was in the dry.

    Col du Pre descent only went down a little bit to the barrage, then up the Cormet de Roseland. Roseland descent not that technical apart from one section, I think. I wasn't any slower than usual down that one...

    If you went down the way they climbed the Col du Pre, that would be pretty twisty.
    That bit was enough to remove any chance of upping my average speed though. 😉
    Might be short but it was slow, slow, slow. Especially with cars coming the other way.
    Not their problem though.
    Only a mile though. All I remember is that after that climb I just wanted my lunch at the restaurant overlooking the lake.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,697

    pblakeney said:

    I remember the Col du Pre descent as being particularly slow and technical.
    That was in the dry.

    Watching it live was harrowing. Dodgy surface, off camber bends, uneven gradient, the moto did a close up of the road at one point, if the gruppetto had seen that I think they'd have got off then and there.
    Driving up Col de Pre is fairly harrowing

    (only fairly as I was sent up way worse so in comparison...)
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,549

    phreak said:



    I think this also underlines that the autobus are not just pootling along. They're still riding hard, they're just not as fast as those at the sharp end.

    There was a moment in Sunday where the Autobots had to average just over 18kmh to make the cut, and the fastest rider had averaged 19. That included the descent, where they'd probably match or exceed his speed, but still... Also it suggests it was the first part that really did the damage as by that point they were riding to 5% of the leading riders, not the 16% cut.
    Are you sure about those speeds? Do you mean mph rather than kmh?
    In 2019 on the day of the Tignes stage, I rode from Bourg to Tignes, and from Seez to the top of the dam at Tignes I averaged 18.4 kmh over the 21.4 kms of the strava segment. OK they went up the side road from Les Breviers and not the main road, but i wasn't exactly pushing it that day.
    Had you done three climbs beforehand, and were you on the ninth day of a three week long trip?
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,908
    Cav is focused relaxed. Looking good in those interviews.
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,557
    andyp said:

    phreak said:



    I think this also underlines that the autobus are not just pootling along. They're still riding hard, they're just not as fast as those at the sharp end.

    There was a moment in Sunday where the Autobots had to average just over 18kmh to make the cut, and the fastest rider had averaged 19. That included the descent, where they'd probably match or exceed his speed, but still... Also it suggests it was the first part that really did the damage as by that point they were riding to 5% of the leading riders, not the 16% cut.
    Are you sure about those speeds? Do you mean mph rather than kmh?
    In 2019 on the day of the Tignes stage, I rode from Bourg to Tignes, and from Seez to the top of the dam at Tignes I averaged 18.4 kmh over the 21.4 kms of the strava segment. OK they went up the side road from Les Breviers and not the main road, but i wasn't exactly pushing it that day.
    Had you done three climbs beforehand, and were you on the ninth day of a three week long trip?
    Well, it was day 8 at the end of a week that had included the Etape (Albertville to Val Thorens) on the Sunday, a day up the Petit St Bernard, a ride up to and around Lake Annecy in 40+ degrees, the Galibier and Telegraph the day before, and about 15,000 m of climbing that week, so for an amateur probably not incomparable!

    Top pros climbing from BSM to Tignes at 19 kmh is them pootling. I averaged 21.5 kmh for that Etape which was 134 kms with 4,275 m of climbing and I'm in my mid-50s.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,143
    Greg Van Avermaet on strava - last inside the limit, 18.6kmh up the last climb:

    https://www.strava.com/activities/5575063565/segments/2846809858242638174

    Ben O'Connor: 22.8kmh https://www.strava.com/activities/5575272763/segments/2846818954904603842
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,652
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  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    There definitely is a bit of chat in Belgium and Holland about a step change this year in speed.

    A lot of the oldies finding the numbers that would keep them in contention really aren't anymore.

    Hmm.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    The organisers may consider the impact of an animal like MDVP tearing up the race for a week knowing he didn't have to worry about week 2 and 3.

    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,143

    The organisers may consider the impact of an animal like MDVP tearing up the race for a week knowing he didn't have to worry about week 2 and 3.

    Cipollini used to do that every year didn't he?
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436

    Cav has it sown up

    After watching the ITV 4 highlights show I'm less confident he'll make it to Paris

    I'd give him a 40 % chance
    If I was a bookie I'd think about offering you less than 10/1 for him to beat Merckx's record this Tour
    Having a quick look he has opportunities on 10,12,13,19 & 21

    Inner Ring suggests there's a unclassified climb atvthe end of 12 that may cause an issue.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,652
    Imagine the pre tour odds you could have got on a green, Paris & Merckx record accumulator? All three looking entirely possible now.
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  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,910

    The organisers may consider the impact of an animal like MDVP tearing up the race for a week knowing he didn't have to worry about week 2 and 3.

    Cipollini used to do that every year didn't he?
    The tour got a bit grumpy with it by the end.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463

    The organisers may consider the impact of an animal like MDVP tearing up the race for a week knowing he didn't have to worry about week 2 and 3.

    Have to admit I'm not a fan of riders entering a GT and openly saying they have no plans to complete it. I'm not sure what anyone can do though, I know there is a rule that they can't do another race until the one they were riding has ended without permission but other than that maybe dock any UCI points gained in a race if a rider retires without medical grounds (they'd probably then just ride to miss the time limit though).