Who will win one, or more, of the three grand tours?

FreddieVonRost

So, due to CV19, the dates are:

TDF - 29/8 to 20/9,
Giro - 3/10 to 25/10,
Vuelta - 20/10 to 8/11,

Questions:

1. Who do we think will will the TDF?
2. Will Bernal be back in time and on top form?
3. Where does this leave Froome?
4. Will wonder boy Evenepoel compete in and win the Giro?
5. Is there one team strong enough to win more then one tour?
6. Will the late dates massively affect the weather, particularly for the Vuelta?
7. Since Spain is beginning to lock down some parts of the country will the Vuelta even take place?

Dorset_Boy

First, I think you need to reword your thread title. They are the Grand Tours, not classic tours.

1 Froome
2 Yes & yes
3 See 1
4 Yes and no
5 Possible for TdF & Vuelta
6 More likely to impact Giro than Vuelta as mountains are further north and higher
7 who knows

FreddieVonRost

Thanks, Dorset Boy,

Edited the title as per your suggestion.

Why Froome and not Bernal?

RichN95.

1. Roglic
2. Yes; Almost
3. No idea
4. Yes; No
5. Yes
6. Yes
7. Yes

ddraver

1) Froomey! Froomey! Froomey!
2) Yes
3) Fuc£ed
4) Yes, stages I expect, but not GC
5) It's such a weird year that I think anything could happen / Ineos obviously
6) It's gonna be cold and wet, no allergy excuses for once
7) I'm not sure any of it will to be honest

david37

I'm thinking the late nature of the races will make the mountains a very different prospect, much cooler in the Vuelta and possibly a better race for it.

joe_totale-2

1. Who do we think will will the TDF? - Roglic
2. Will Bernal be back in time and on top form? - Yes
3. Where does this leave Froome? - Third in the TDF and planning a holiday to Tel Aviv.
4. Will wonder boy Evenepoel compete in and win the Giro? - Yes, stage wins but no GC
5. Is there one team strong enough to win more then one tour? - I'll say no
6. Will the late dates massively affect the weather, particularly for the Vuelta? - It'll be a very different Vuelta, will be nice seeing Spain more verdant on the TV instead of the scorched brown and yellow it sometimes is.
7. Since Spain is beginning to lock down some parts of the country will the Vuelta even take place? - Yes although some last minute route diversions will be expected.

blazing_saddles

1) Roglic
2) Yes, Not quite good enough.
3) In limbo
4) Yes and no
5) Theoretically there are 2
6) The Giro: Mid May and October roughly the same odds of stage cancellations. La Vuelta little or no effect.
7) Yes, no reason why not if Catalunya can be sorted.

salsiccia1

1) Roglic
2) Yes, almost but will suffer from having 2 opponents in the same team
3) Waiting for 2021
4) Probably and No
5) Yes: Ineos and Jumbo
6) Not too much for the Giro, but possibly the Vuelta
7) Who knows, we might not even see the Tour so a lot of the above might be moot

gregster04

1. Bernal will win the Tour again.
2. Yes he will, he’ll be too good on the biggest climbs for opponents in his own team and others.
3. Froome will have to fall in line and plan for his move. I think a respectable top 10 would be an achievement given his crash and this being his first Grand Tour since. He won’t agree though.
4. Evenepoel will ride the Giro but won’t win it. He will light it up at times though.
5. Yes, Ineos are (as we know). Jumbo probably are too.
6. We’ve had interesting weather at the Giro anyway. It was miserable for first week a year or 2 back. We had that controversial Quintana stage and summits taken out too. I think it will be similar. The Vuelta will be business as usual but maybe a bit less humid on some of those long days in the interior.
7. Each and every race is at risk pretty much up to roll-out unfortunately. Let’s just hope we get some meaningful racing and winners.

pblakeney

blazing_saddles said:

6) The Giro: Mid May and October roughly the same odds of stage cancellations. La Vuelta little or no effect.

More mid April for the Giro.

davidof

25/10 is late for the Alps. For example last autumn snow blew through on the 15th October closing all the high cols for a few days - but they could be plowed and cleared pretty quickly. Even early October the descents are chilly needing a cape.

nickice

Looking at the media today and the increase in clusters in France, Spain etc I don't think any of the GT's will happen this year or, if they do, they'll be stopped at some point. I could see some one-day races happening but that's it.

blazing_saddles

nickice said:

Looking at the media today and the increase in clusters in France, Spain etc I don't think any of the GT's will happen this year or, if they do, they'll be stopped at some point. I could see some one-day races happening but that's it.

I think this is called Nick doing a Rick.

Depends.
Reading the very inflammatory report from the BBC, it does say this:

Public health agency Santé Publique France issued a warning for Mayenne after it passed the alert threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants in a week. Across France as a whole, that figure is about 10 per 100,000 inhabitants.

Those are extremely low thresholds (we should be so lucky) and as we know from Germany's recent R number leap: the R number variation depends on the number of active cases.

Spain seems to have two distinct hot spots which are fuel increases: Catalunya (Barcelona and surrounds being under restrictions) and Aragon.