Wiped away, never to come back?

pblakeney

pblakeney said:

Other opinions are available.

See! 🤣🤣🤣

rick_chasey

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Pross said:

pblakeney said:

morstar said:

So you went by coach then!?
No, so it was a combination of cost and convenience.
The convenience factor being provided by air travel.

It's not very convenient if you can't afford it though.
No company is going to survive offering low cost flights at a loss.
This is like the pro sports thread. "We want things to go back to how they were, now!"
Deluded.

I think it's more deluded to think that when this is finally over most people won't want to go back to their foreign holidays and that at some point companies will come back in to undercut the competition and provide flights that pushing profit margins to the limits. If most people end up holidaying in the UK then the likes of the Cornish coast and Lake District are going to struggle to cope without massive investment in facilities and infrastructure.

IAG CEO said it’d take 5 years to return to 2019 passenger levels.

Sounds a reasonable guess. It's a long way from from people predicting an end to cheap flights and any long term significant reduction in air travel though.

That’s pretty significant and all of them are either going bust or being bailed out by governments so I wouldn’t expect pricing to be as low as previously.

It is also a real problem for the plane manufacturers too.

Pross

rick_chasey said:

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Pross said:

pblakeney said:

morstar said:

So you went by coach then!?
No, so it was a combination of cost and convenience.
The convenience factor being provided by air travel.

It's not very convenient if you can't afford it though.
No company is going to survive offering low cost flights at a loss.
This is like the pro sports thread. "We want things to go back to how they were, now!"
Deluded.

I think it's more deluded to think that when this is finally over most people won't want to go back to their foreign holidays and that at some point companies will come back in to undercut the competition and provide flights that pushing profit margins to the limits. If most people end up holidaying in the UK then the likes of the Cornish coast and Lake District are going to struggle to cope without massive investment in facilities and infrastructure.

IAG CEO said it’d take 5 years to return to 2019 passenger levels.

Sounds a reasonable guess. It's a long way from from people predicting an end to cheap flights and any long term significant reduction in air travel though.

That’s pretty significant and all of them are either going bust or being bailed out by governments so I wouldn’t expect pricing to be as low as previously.

It is also a real problem for the plane manufacturers too.

Of course, it's huge but it's still a long way from being a permanent end to cheap flights and foreign holidays. I actually think that long term it is likely to be business flights that won't fully recover now people have been forced to adopt doing things differently. Companies will realise there's cost saving there and move away from it although mid to high level execs might not like it as a Zoom meeting doesn't make them look as important as a business class flight to New York (but you probably understand those people better than me). I think we might see a reduction in business and first class flights in the long term as a result.

Plane manufacturing is probably a bigger issue. It's a big industry in the UK and not just the big name makers of major components like engines and wings. One of the big industrial companies near me makes seats for planes. Then there's all the other related jobs to aviation such as companies that make in flight meals.

surrey_commuter

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Pross said:

pblakeney said:

morstar said:

So you went by coach then!?
No, so it was a combination of cost and convenience.
The convenience factor being provided by air travel.

It's not very convenient if you can't afford it though.
No company is going to survive offering low cost flights at a loss.
This is like the pro sports thread. "We want things to go back to how they were, now!"
Deluded.

I think it's more deluded to think that when this is finally over most people won't want to go back to their foreign holidays and that at some point companies will come back in to undercut the competition and provide flights that pushing profit margins to the limits. If most people end up holidaying in the UK then the likes of the Cornish coast and Lake District are going to struggle to cope without massive investment in facilities and infrastructure.

IAG CEO said it’d take 5 years to return to 2019 passenger levels.

Sounds a reasonable guess. It's a long way from from people predicting an end to cheap flights and any long term significant reduction in air travel though.

That’s pretty significant and all of them are either going bust or being bailed out by governments so I wouldn’t expect pricing to be as low as previously.

It is also a real problem for the plane manufacturers too.

Of course, it's huge but it's still a long way from being a permanent end to cheap flights and foreign holidays. I actually think that long term it is likely to be business flights that won't fully recover now people have been forced to adopt doing things differently. Companies will realise there's cost saving there and move away from it although mid to high level execs might not like it as a Zoom meeting doesn't make them look as important as a business class flight to New York (but you probably understand those people better than me). I think we might see a reduction in business and first class flights in the long term as a result.

Plane manufacturing is probably a bigger issue. It's a big industry in the UK and not just the big name makers of major components like engines and wings. One of the big industrial companies near me makes seats for planes. Then there's all the other related jobs to aviation such as companies that make in flight meals.

Nobody flies business class to NYC to look important

If you start thinking through the ramifications it gets very scary very quickly

rick_chasey

I suspect flights will become much more expensive as this whole episode will take out massive swathes of competition.

DeVlaeminck

Rolls Royce have already announced plans to cut 8k staff, and a number of contractors have already been cut.

coopster_the_1st

Pross said:

pblakeney said:

morstar said:

So you went by coach then!?
No, so it was a combination of cost and convenience.
The convenience factor being provided by air travel.

It's not very convenient if you can't afford it though.
No company is going to survive offering low cost flights at a loss.
This is like the pro sports thread. "We want things to go back to how they were, now!"
Deluded.

I think it's more deluded to think that when this is finally over most people won't want to go back to their foreign holidays and that at some point companies will come back in to undercut the competition and provide flights that pushing profit margins to the limits. If most people end up holidaying in the UK then the likes of the Cornish coast and Lake District are going to struggle to cope without massive investment in facilities and infrastructure.

Many low cost flights are cargo flights with passengers as a bonus. Add in incentive payments by the tourist destinations and the low cost model can return very quickly. It's whether the companies can make it out the other side of this. The longer the restrictions are in place the less chance they have.

ugo.santalucia

There has been a push to move to a more responsible and environmentally sustainable way to live for a long time now. The government knows this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to do just that and the 14 day quarantine is yet another kick in the teeth of the travel and aviation industry.
I can see a big push for electric vehicles of all sorts, human powered motion of all sorts and less unnecessary international travel. We will also feel compelled to help our own hospitality industry, before jetting off to Spain. I think Holidays in the UK will come back strong, maybe as early as this summer

Pross

ugo.santalucia said:

There has been a push to move to a more responsible and environmentally sustainable way to live for a long time now. The government knows this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to do just that and the 14 day quarantine is yet another kick in the teeth of the travel and aviation industry.
I can see a big push for electric vehicles of all sorts, human powered motion of all sorts and less unnecessary international travel. We will also feel compelled to help our own hospitality industry, before jetting off to Spain. I think Holidays in the UK will come back strong, maybe as early as this summer

The Government are saying the right things about a once in a lifetime opportunity but in the end it will come down to who lobbies them hardest and money.

thistle_

Pross said:

ugo.santalucia said:

There has been a push to move to a more responsible and environmentally sustainable way to live for a long time now. The government knows this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to do just that and the 14 day quarantine is yet another kick in the teeth of the travel and aviation industry.
I can see a big push for electric vehicles of all sorts, human powered motion of all sorts and less unnecessary international travel. We will also feel compelled to help our own hospitality industry, before jetting off to Spain. I think Holidays in the UK will come back strong, maybe as early as this summer

The Government are saying the right things about a once in a lifetime opportunity but in the end it will come down to who lobbies them hardest and money.

Greenest Government Ever - remember that?

ugo.santalucia

It's the perfect scenario... can't use public transport, can't jam cities with cars, got to cycle or walk, no alternative. Like it or not, it's the only ready available option. And it comes with a bunch of attractive side effects, in terms of health.
Equally, can't pack aircrafts like we used to, hence airlines are no longer profitable, let them dog eat dog and a few to go bust, what else can you do? Subsidise Virgin so that folks can have their stag do in Vegas using taxpayer's money?

rick_chasey

If I was a boss of a professional services firm
i would look into saving on office costs by looking at maybe having a big chunk of the work force work from home on certain days and have maybe desks for only 70% of your staff.

Lower overheads.

If more staff commute only 3 days a week then those who go by train could save some money too, plus any mental health benefits.

I am certainly considering asking to become a tw@t (Tuesdays Wednesdays and Thursdays) on return.

thistle_

rick_chasey said:

If I was a boss of a professional services firm
i would look into saving on office costs by looking at maybe having a big chunk of the work force work from home on certain days and have maybe desks for only 70% of your staff.

That's what our company was doing pre lockdown - 100 people assigned to our regional office but only 60 desks. The assumption was that the other 40 would be working elsewhere or on holiday at any one time.
Doesn't make much of a dent in the overheads though when you're paying for 3 floors in a brand new central London office which is only half full.

rick_chasey

thistle_(mbnw) said:

rick_chasey said:

If I was a boss of a professional services firm
i would look into saving on office costs by looking at maybe having a big chunk of the work force work from home on certain days and have maybe desks for only 70% of your staff.

That's what our company was doing pre lockdown - 100 people assigned to our regional office but only 60 desks. The assumption was that the other 40 would be working elsewhere or on holiday at any one time.
Doesn't make much of a dent in the overheads though when you're paying for 3 floors in a brand new central London office which is only half full.

Sure but presumably you’ll be able to move to smaller premises?

pblakeney

Not if keeping 2m minimum between desks.
It is the practicalities that destroy wishes of returning to "normal".

Jeremy.89

Sharing desks between people coming in on different days would seem problematic when there's a pandemic on

rick_chasey

Sure I mean once things return to normal. Not least as most leases are quite long on offices.

ugo.santalucia

rick_chasey said:

Sure I mean once things return to normal. Not least as most leases are quite long on offices.

There will be a lot of on and off and false normalities for several months... I just read that one bundesliga team is in self isolation, after three players tested positive and they've not even restarted playing...

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

If I was a boss of a professional services firm
i would look into saving on office costs by looking at maybe having a big chunk of the work force work from home on certain days and have maybe desks for only 70% of your staff.

Lower overheads.

If more staff commute only 3 days a week then those who go by train could save some money too, plus any mental health benefits.

I am certainly considering asking to become a tw@t (Tuesdays Wednesdays and Thursdays) on return.

I think you are overestimating the rental cost. Our rent is less than the salary of the lowest paid member of staff. If you include service charges and rates as well, then only one member of staff has a lower salary.

coopster_the_1st

pblakeney said:

Not if keeping 2m minimum between desks.
It is the practicalities that destroy wishes of returning to "normal".

Unsurprisingly you are fixated on one issue and missing the bigger issues.

It's pointless keeping 2m minimum between desks in sealed offices blocks with air conditioning/air circulation systems.

pblakeney

coopster_the_1st said:

pblakeney said:

Not if keeping 2m minimum between desks.
It is the practicalities that destroy wishes of returning to "normal".

Unsurprisingly you are fixated on one issue and missing the bigger issues.

It's pointless keeping 2m minimum between desks in sealed offices blocks with air conditioning/air circulation systems.

Which is yet another of the practicalities destroying the wishes of returning to "normal". Thanks for pointing it out.

morstar

The thread title is specifically about ‘never to come back’.

Some of the arguments seem to be confusing short to mid term disruption and change with permanent change.

pblakeney

morstar said:

The thread title is specifically about ‘never to come back’.

Some of the arguments seem to be confusing short to mid term disruption and change with permanent change.

Rather depends on whether the virus solution is short to mid term, or not.
Then there are the change of attitudes post virus.
I'd happily wfh till retirement for example. No great need to go to an office.

morstar

I think the more practical changes are more likely to be permanent whereas the more desire driven behaviour changes are less likely to be so.
Changes to working environments and behaviours (especially ones with clear cost benefits) are highly likely to become permanent.
Changes enforced upon things we like to do (dine out, socialise, holiday etc.) are far more likely to be temporary. Whilst accepting that temporary may be quite prolonged for economic reasons.

I don’t think the uptake of cycling and walking places will be permanent in many beyond a small minority who just needed a nudge anyway.
As soon as it rains...
Especially if car / train commutes are slightly easier with more people wfh.

coopster_the_1st

pblakeney said:

coopster_the_1st said:

pblakeney said:

Not if keeping 2m minimum between desks.
It is the practicalities that destroy wishes of returning to "normal".

Unsurprisingly you are fixated on one issue and missing the bigger issues.

It's pointless keeping 2m minimum between desks in sealed offices blocks with air conditioning/air circulation systems.

Which is yet another of the practicalities destroying the wishes of returning to "normal". Thanks for pointing it out.

Returning to "normal" is accepting living with this virus in society.

It's whether it takes you day, weeks, months or even years to accept this.

shortfall

morstar said:

I think the more practical changes are more likely to be permanent whereas the more desire driven behaviour changes are less likely to be so.
Changes to working environments and behaviours (especially ones with clear cost benefits) are highly likely to become permanent.
Changes enforced upon things we like to do (dine out, socialise, holiday etc.) are far more likely to be temporary. Whilst accepting that temporary may be quite prolonged for economic reasons.

I don’t think the uptake of cycling and walking places will be permanent in many beyond a small minority who just needed a nudge anyway.
As soon as it rains...
Especially if car / train commutes are slightly easier with more people wfh.

Agreed. I used to cycle to work quite often but we had showers at work and not everyone does. I also live where there are lots of hills and that would deter a lot of people, also those who live any distance from work. I hated it when it was cold or wet and didn't bother cycling in those conditions and I also got knocked off a couple of times in traffic and that put even me off in the end.

pblakeney

coopster_the_1st said:

pblakeney said:

coopster_the_1st said:

pblakeney said:

Not if keeping 2m minimum between desks.
It is the practicalities that destroy wishes of returning to "normal".

Unsurprisingly you are fixated on one issue and missing the bigger issues.

It's pointless keeping 2m minimum between desks in sealed offices blocks with air conditioning/air circulation systems.

Which is yet another of the practicalities destroying the wishes of returning to "normal". Thanks for pointing it out.

Returning to "normal" is accepting living with this virus in society.

It's whether it takes you day, weeks, months or even years to accept this.

That depends on how you define "normal".
If it is a per pre-virus then that's not coming back.
If you think it will be a new as yet undefined "normal" then I accepted this 2 months ago. It is those thinking that we will return that have to accept things.

ugo.santalucia

Can an air recirculating device be retrofitted with an HEPA filter of some sort?

Surely this could be a lucrative industry... a bit like those boys in lunar landing suits that come to remove a couple of slabs of asbestos...

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

If I was a boss of a professional services firm
i would look into saving on office costs by looking at maybe having a big chunk of the work force work from home on certain days and have maybe desks for only 70% of your staff.

Lower overheads.

If more staff commute only 3 days a week then those who go by train could save some money too, plus any mental health benefits.

I am certainly considering asking to become a tw@t (Tuesdays Wednesdays and Thursdays) on return.

A lot of them already have done. So have we and we're not in professional services.

surrey_commuter

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

If I was a boss of a professional services firm
i would look into saving on office costs by looking at maybe having a big chunk of the work force work from home on certain days and have maybe desks for only 70% of your staff.

Lower overheads.

If more staff commute only 3 days a week then those who go by train could save some money too, plus any mental health benefits.

I am certainly considering asking to become a tw@t (Tuesdays Wednesdays and Thursdays) on return.

A lot of them already have done. So have we and we're not in professional services.

I imagine a lot of companies will downsize square foot by a lot more than a third. This will of course have a knock on effect on businesses dependent upon office workers. This will be a double whammy for property companies. And council revenues, but at least they have not been borrowing money to invest in property.