Stage TT Legs Bonus Crosswinds
8 20TP 8TP
14 36TP 10TP
15 49TP 6TP
Total 47GT 1m48TP 24TP 1m40GT
I think it will be Thomas.
On the road, excluding TT and crosswinds, Pinot's "legs" have earned him 4 finishes ahead of Thomas, accruing 1m50 time gaps and 24s bonuses, so 2m14s advantage. Thomas' legs have gained him 2s on Pinot on road stages, and 47s in TTT / ITT advantage. That's a net 1m25s in favour of Pinot, which becomes a net 15s in favour of Thomas when the crosswinds day losses of 1m40 comes into play.
This is where the gaps have come, and who they have benefited
Let's assume that there isn't a repeat of the brain fade that lost Pinot the crosswinds time, and with no opportunity for any more TT advantage to play into Thomas' hands, the prediction would be for Pinot to gain around 35-40s on Thomas over the next few stages, perhaps a few less if bonus seconds are discounted.
I know it's not as simple as all that, but just a different way of looking at it. Bring on Thursday / Friday / Saturday!
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