Who will win the 2019 Tour?

I'd have no objection to any one of those six winning it. But I think it'll be Thomas, especially if Ineos get over whatever has been causing their drop in form.

Much as I want Thomas to win again, the story so far I don't think supports a Thomas win without something changing in the third week - and that could be as simple as fatigue on either side.

On the road, excluding TT and crosswinds, Pinot's "legs" have earned him 4 finishes ahead of Thomas, accruing 1m50 time gaps and 24s bonuses, so 2m14s advantage. Thomas' legs have gained him 2s on Pinot on road stages, and 47s in TTT / ITT advantage. That's a net 1m25s in favour of Pinot, which becomes a net 15s in favour of Thomas when the crosswinds day losses of 1m40 comes into play.

This is where the gaps have come, and who they have benefited

Stage	TT	Legs	Bonus	Crosswinds
 2		12GT
 3				5TB
 6				2GT
 8				20TP	8TP
10									1m40GT
13		35GT
14				36TP	10TP
15				49TP	6TP
Total	47GT 1m48TP 24TP	  1m40GT

Let's assume that there isn't a repeat of the brain fade that lost Pinot the crosswinds time, and with no opportunity for any more TT advantage to play into Thomas' hands, the prediction would be for Pinot to gain around 35-40s on Thomas over the next few stages, perhaps a few less if bonus seconds are discounted.

I know it's not as simple as all that, but just a different way of looking at it. Bring on Thursday / Friday / Saturday!

Surprisingly it seems to be a two horse race on this forum.