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Brexit vote, guess the margin...

ugo.santaluciaugo.santalucia Posts: 24,219
edited March 2019 in The cake stop
Guess the margin by which TM will lose the Brexit vote tonight and win an entry to BRUM 200, a Loop of Birmingham!

C'mon let's see these guesses...
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  • Guess the margin by which TM will lose the Brexit vote tonight and win an entry to BRUM 200, a Loop of Birmingham!

    C'mon let's see these guesses...

    You are a rational person so you are projecting rational behaviour on a bunch of irrational people. Say the ERG are not mental and have two cells to rub together then they will be rushing to vote yes.

    It is a no bet for me
  • crispybug2crispybug2 Posts: 2,997
    Talking to an old friend from my old local Labour Party who is now quite high up in the party apparatus, she thinks it’ll be voted down by 50-100 votes which will be enough to to get a second vote on it, and a bit of further tweaking between the EU and the government!



    By the same token, when I asked her about the last election she thought Labour would lose by about 75 votes!
  • ugo.santaluciaugo.santalucia Posts: 24,219
    crispybug2 wrote:
    Talking to an old friend from my old local Labour Party who is now quite high up in the party apparatus, she thinks it’ll be voted down by 50-100 votes which will be enough to to get a second vote on it, and a bit of further tweaking between the EU and the government!



    By the same token, when I asked her about the last election she thought Labour would lose by about 75 votes!

    So, is 75 your bet?
  • john80john80 Posts: 828
    Government to win by 1 vote and then remainers to demand a recount:)
  • john80 wrote:
    Government to win by 1 vote and then remainers to demand a recount:)

    Do try and keep up, I will help as much as I can but you have to make an effort.

    Tonight’s vote (if it happens) is on the Withdrawal agreement. Labour/SNP will vote against it because that is what they do. Then you have a correlation between how mad you are and how much you hate the WA. If it passes by 1 vote the wailing will come from the extremist wing of the ERG.

    I appreciate that it is counter intuitive that the more years you have obsessed about leaving the EU the more likely you are to thwart it but you will have to trust me on this one.
  • laurentianlaurentian Posts: 1,687
    Government to lose by 20 - 30
    Wilier Izoard XP
  • ugo.santaluciaugo.santalucia Posts: 24,219
    laurentian wrote:
    Government to lose by 20 - 30

    Narrow it down to one number... I need to be able to pick a winner... shall we say 25?
  • ProssPross Posts: 22,116
    JRM is waiting to see what the DUP think (his own words). I reckon it will end up voted down by 68 votes.
  • orraloonorraloon Posts: 5,883
    53

    Tick
  • Mad_MalxMad_Malx Posts: 3,932
    govt lose by 9 votes
  • laurentianlaurentian Posts: 1,687
    laurentian wrote:
    Government to lose by 20 - 30

    Narrow it down to one number... I need to be able to pick a winner... shall we say 25?

    25 it is
    Wilier Izoard XP
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 14,402
    Lose by 200
    Believe that a farther shore
    Is reachable from here.
    Believe in miracles
    And cures and healing wells
  • rolf_frolf_f Posts: 15,959
    People have very low expectation of MPs ability to notice that the deal is exactly the same as it was last time it was put to the vote!

    110 (lose).
    Faster than a tent.......
  • mamil314mamil314 Posts: 1,103
    'TM will lose the Brexit vote tonight and win an entry to BRUM 200'

    Does she even cycle.
  • rolf_frolf_f Posts: 15,959
    mamil314 wrote:
    'TM will lose the Brexit vote tonight and win an entry to BRUM 200'

    Does she even cycle.

    She just back pedals.
    Faster than a tent.......
  • kingstongrahamkingstongraham Posts: 8,967
    185
    and then the next thing you know
  • FocusZingFocusZing Posts: 4,416
    edited March 2019
    I guess that somebody will get close to the result, it will give the impression that they are the enlightened one (in this instance) and that there is order amongst chaos.

    I'm an idiot by the way and don't have a clue.
  • ugo.santaluciaugo.santalucia Posts: 24,219
    Rolf F wrote:

    She just back pedals.

    She might start to pedal forward and out of no. 10 if she loses in 3 figures again. :lol:
  • ugo.santaluciaugo.santalucia Posts: 24,219
    So far...

    John80 +1 W
    Mad_Malx -9 L
    Laurentian -25 L
    Orraloon -53 L
    Pross -68 L
    Rolf F -110 L
    KG - 185 L
    TWH -200 L
  • ProssPross Posts: 22,116
    Based on the legal response I suspect the bottom 3 are currently the only ones left in the running.
  • daniel_bdaniel_b Posts: 8,473
    113 to lose :D
    Felt F70 05 (Turbo)
    Marin Palisades Trail 91 and 06
    Scott CR1 SL 12
    Cannondale Synapse Adventure 15 & 16 Di2
    Scott Foil 18
  • ugo.santaluciaugo.santalucia Posts: 24,219
    John80 +1 W
    Mad_Malx -9 L
    Laurentian -25 L
    Orraloon -53 L
    Pross -68 L
    Rolf F -110 L
    Daniel B -113 L
    KG - 185 L
    TWH -200 L
  • vimfuegovimfuego Posts: 1,788
    142 L
    CS7
    Surrey Hills
    What's a Zwift?
  • joe2008joe2008 Posts: 1,919
    222 L
  • ugo.santaluciaugo.santalucia Posts: 24,219
    edited March 2019
    John80 +1 W
    Mad_Malx -9 L
    Laurentian -25 L
    Orraloon -53 L
    Pross -68 L
    Rolf F -110 L
    Daniel B -113 L
    Vimfuego -142 L
    Singleton -165 L
    KG - 185 L
    TWH -200 L
    Joe 2008 -222L

    Copy, paste and insert your prediction
  • john80john80 Posts: 828
    So far...

    John80 +1 W
    Mad_Malx -9 L
    Laurentian -25 L
    Orraloon -53 L
    Pross -68 L
    Rolf F -110 L
    KG - 185 L
    TWH -200 L

    I thought this forum could do with a bit of unrealistic optimism.
  • rolf_frolf_f Posts: 15,959
    Pross wrote:
    Based on the legal response I suspect the bottom 3 are currently the only ones left in the running.

    I'm probably out now given that it does seem to be finally dawning on the MPs that the deal is exactly what it was before. They are slow on the uptake but not that slow. TM should have re-timetabled the vote for 5:30 this morning.

    I'd probably now go for more like 170 on the basis that surely there are only about 30 MPs of the sort of intellect of Andrea Leadsom who would think that the deal has actually changed and change their mind.
    Faster than a tent.......
  • singletonsingleton Posts: 1,536
    I think it will be less than last time, but still a big loss.
    I'll go with lose by 165.
  • ugo.santaluciaugo.santalucia Posts: 24,219
    John80 +1 W
    Mad_Malx -9 L
    Laurentian -25 L
    Orraloon -53 L
    Pross -68 L
    Rolf F -110 L
    Daniel B -113 L
    Vimfuego -142 L
    Singleton -165 L
    KG - 185 L
    TWH -200 L
    Joe 2008 -222L

    Copy, paste and insert your prediction
  • graeme_s-2graeme_s-2 Posts: 3,382
    John80 +1 W
    Mad_Malx -9 L
    Laurentian -25 L
    Orraloon -53 L
    Pross -68 L
    Rolf F -110 L
    Daniel B -113 L
    Graeme_S - 133 L
    Vimfuego -142 L
    Singleton -165 L
    KG - 185 L
    TWH -200 L
    Joe 2008 -222L

    Copy, paste and insert your prediction
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