Brexit vote, guess the margin...

ugo.santalucia
ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
edited March 2019 in The cake stop
Guess the margin by which TM will lose the Brexit vote tonight and win an entry to BRUM 200, a Loop of Birmingham!

C'mon let's see these guesses...
left the forum March 2023
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Comments

  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    Guess the margin by which TM will lose the Brexit vote tonight and win an entry to BRUM 200, a Loop of Birmingham!

    C'mon let's see these guesses...

    You are a rational person so you are projecting rational behaviour on a bunch of irrational people. Say the ERG are not mental and have two cells to rub together then they will be rushing to vote yes.

    It is a no bet for me
  • crispybug2
    crispybug2 Posts: 2,915
    Talking to an old friend from my old local Labour Party who is now quite high up in the party apparatus, she thinks it’ll be voted down by 50-100 votes which will be enough to to get a second vote on it, and a bit of further tweaking between the EU and the government!



    By the same token, when I asked her about the last election she thought Labour would lose by about 75 votes!
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
    crispybug2 wrote:
    Talking to an old friend from my old local Labour Party who is now quite high up in the party apparatus, she thinks it’ll be voted down by 50-100 votes which will be enough to to get a second vote on it, and a bit of further tweaking between the EU and the government!



    By the same token, when I asked her about the last election she thought Labour would lose by about 75 votes!

    So, is 75 your bet?
    left the forum March 2023
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    Government to win by 1 vote and then remainers to demand a recount:)
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    john80 wrote:
    Government to win by 1 vote and then remainers to demand a recount:)

    Do try and keep up, I will help as much as I can but you have to make an effort.

    Tonight’s vote (if it happens) is on the Withdrawal agreement. Labour/SNP will vote against it because that is what they do. Then you have a correlation between how mad you are and how much you hate the WA. If it passes by 1 vote the wailing will come from the extremist wing of the ERG.

    I appreciate that it is counter intuitive that the more years you have obsessed about leaving the EU the more likely you are to thwart it but you will have to trust me on this one.
  • laurentian
    laurentian Posts: 2,526
    Government to lose by 20 - 30
    Wilier Izoard XP
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
    laurentian wrote:
    Government to lose by 20 - 30

    Narrow it down to one number... I need to be able to pick a winner... shall we say 25?
    left the forum March 2023
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,342
    JRM is waiting to see what the DUP think (his own words). I reckon it will end up voted down by 68 votes.
  • orraloon
    orraloon Posts: 13,227
    53

    Tick
  • Mad_Malx
    Mad_Malx Posts: 5,174
    govt lose by 9 votes
  • laurentian
    laurentian Posts: 2,526
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    laurentian wrote:
    Government to lose by 20 - 30

    Narrow it down to one number... I need to be able to pick a winner... shall we say 25?

    25 it is
    Wilier Izoard XP
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,312
    Lose by 200
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • rolf_f
    rolf_f Posts: 16,015
    People have very low expectation of MPs ability to notice that the deal is exactly the same as it was last time it was put to the vote!

    110 (lose).
    Faster than a tent.......
  • mamil314
    mamil314 Posts: 1,103
    'TM will lose the Brexit vote tonight and win an entry to BRUM 200'

    Does she even cycle.
  • rolf_f
    rolf_f Posts: 16,015
    mamil314 wrote:
    'TM will lose the Brexit vote tonight and win an entry to BRUM 200'

    Does she even cycle.

    She just back pedals.
    Faster than a tent.......
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 27,948
    185
  • FocusZing
    FocusZing Posts: 4,373
    edited March 2019
    I guess that somebody will get close to the result, it will give the impression that they are the enlightened one (in this instance) and that there is order amongst chaos.

    I'm an idiot by the way and don't have a clue.
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
    Rolf F wrote:

    She just back pedals.

    She might start to pedal forward and out of no. 10 if she loses in 3 figures again. :lol:
    left the forum March 2023
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
    So far...

    John80 +1 W
    Mad_Malx -9 L
    Laurentian -25 L
    Orraloon -53 L
    Pross -68 L
    Rolf F -110 L
    KG - 185 L
    TWH -200 L
    left the forum March 2023
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,342
    Based on the legal response I suspect the bottom 3 are currently the only ones left in the running.
  • daniel_b
    daniel_b Posts: 11,921
    113 to lose :D
    Felt F70 05 (Turbo)
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  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
    John80 +1 W
    Mad_Malx -9 L
    Laurentian -25 L
    Orraloon -53 L
    Pross -68 L
    Rolf F -110 L
    Daniel B -113 L
    KG - 185 L
    TWH -200 L
    left the forum March 2023
  • vimfuego
    vimfuego Posts: 1,783
    142 L
    CS7
    Surrey Hills
    What's a Zwift?
  • joe2008
    joe2008 Posts: 1,531
    222 L
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
    edited March 2019
    John80 +1 W
    Mad_Malx -9 L
    Laurentian -25 L
    Orraloon -53 L
    Pross -68 L
    Rolf F -110 L
    Daniel B -113 L
    Vimfuego -142 L
    Singleton -165 L
    KG - 185 L
    TWH -200 L
    Joe 2008 -222L

    Copy, paste and insert your prediction
    left the forum March 2023
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    So far...

    John80 +1 W
    Mad_Malx -9 L
    Laurentian -25 L
    Orraloon -53 L
    Pross -68 L
    Rolf F -110 L
    KG - 185 L
    TWH -200 L

    I thought this forum could do with a bit of unrealistic optimism.
  • rolf_f
    rolf_f Posts: 16,015
    Pross wrote:
    Based on the legal response I suspect the bottom 3 are currently the only ones left in the running.

    I'm probably out now given that it does seem to be finally dawning on the MPs that the deal is exactly what it was before. They are slow on the uptake but not that slow. TM should have re-timetabled the vote for 5:30 this morning.

    I'd probably now go for more like 170 on the basis that surely there are only about 30 MPs of the sort of intellect of Andrea Leadsom who would think that the deal has actually changed and change their mind.
    Faster than a tent.......
  • singleton
    singleton Posts: 2,523
    I think it will be less than last time, but still a big loss.
    I'll go with lose by 165.
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
    John80 +1 W
    Mad_Malx -9 L
    Laurentian -25 L
    Orraloon -53 L
    Pross -68 L
    Rolf F -110 L
    Daniel B -113 L
    Vimfuego -142 L
    Singleton -165 L
    KG - 185 L
    TWH -200 L
    Joe 2008 -222L

    Copy, paste and insert your prediction
    left the forum March 2023
  • graeme_s-2
    graeme_s-2 Posts: 3,382
    John80 +1 W
    Mad_Malx -9 L
    Laurentian -25 L
    Orraloon -53 L
    Pross -68 L
    Rolf F -110 L
    Daniel B -113 L
    Graeme_S - 133 L
    Vimfuego -142 L
    Singleton -165 L
    KG - 185 L
    TWH -200 L
    Joe 2008 -222L

    Copy, paste and insert your prediction

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