LEAVE the Conservative Party and save your country!
Comments
-
Yeah so now is almost as bad as then. Which is what I said.TheBigBean said:
Worse. The peak is above the 6% line whereas today is below it.rick_chasey said:
Yeah. Almost as bad right?TheBigBean said:
Did you look at it?rick_chasey said:
So the chart is wrong?wallace_and_gromit said:Rick - Check out the late 80s / early 90s effective rate vs today's. It was tough back in those dark days, and not just because - as my kids tell me - everything was in black and white.
I’ve posted the rest of the thread above as none seems to click through things.
Because it’s happened before there should be no complaints now?
I suspect this argument will end up the same way as your argument with BoJo and his parties. Weren’t you defending the attendance of his wife at the work events?0 -
I confess I paid my £3 to Labour back in 2015. Maybe the best 3 quid ever spentkingstongraham said:
It's true though - Stevo is a remain voting paid up Labour supporter who voted for Corbyn.First.Aspect said:
Irony alert.Stevo_666 said:
I'm amused at the lazy leftie stereotyping hereFirst.Aspect said:
No, all the gammons like Stevorick_chasey said:
🤞🏻🤞🏻electoral collapse 🤞🏻🤞🏻verylonglegs said:So how much legs has this party meltdown got in it? It's difficult to see how it ends.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Whilst I'm critical of the way mortgages are priced, they do take into account the forward curve.
I still don't see your point. Rates may rise further which would make make mortgages effectively more expensive than 1991. Property prices might fall as well. At the moment, all it shows it is that mortgage payments were worse in the past.0 -
They are really very high at the moment and because they were once higher does not mean they are not high.TheBigBean said:Whilst I'm critical of the way mortgages are priced, they do take into account the forward curve.
I still don't see your point. Rates may rise further which would make make mortgages effectively more expensive than 1991. Property prices might fall as well. At the moment, all it shows it is that mortgage payments were worse in the past.
That’s what’s so frustrating about trying to discuss it.
It’s always framed as “late 80s we’re worse” sure, though increasingly not by much. That doesn’t mean this isn’t really tough, right?0 -
You've argued for many years that mortgage payments were high. The graph shows that you were not correct, but they are now becoming high, so perhaps it is a broken clock point.rick_chasey said:
They are really very high at the moment and because they were once higher does not mean they are not high.TheBigBean said:Whilst I'm critical of the way mortgages are priced, they do take into account the forward curve.
I still don't see your point. Rates may rise further which would make make mortgages effectively more expensive than 1991. Property prices might fall as well. At the moment, all it shows it is that mortgage payments were worse in the past.
That’s what’s so frustrating about trying to discuss it.
It’s always framed as “late 80s we’re worse” sure, though increasingly not by much. That doesn’t mean this isn’t really tough, right?
Anyway, yes, rates are now high. Property prices will fall in real terms.0 -
Isn't that quite normal throughout history? 1992-2007 being an exception with a few mini crashes along the way.Jezyboy said:
I think the problem is (sort of different) this time around, in that many millennials have waited slightly longer to get onto the housing ladder. I mean, an older relative was recalling working multiple jobs to keep above water. I think these days those jobs wouldn't have paid enough to get on the ladder in the first place (in the part of the country he was in).wallace_and_gromit said:Rick - Check out the late 80s / early 90s effective rate vs today's. It was tough back in those dark days, and not just because - as my kids tell me - everything was in black and white.
Either way, after graduating into a global financial crisis, a second economic catastrophe in your early 30s is certainly great fun!
0 -
Will they fall faster, or slower than salaries?TheBigBean said:
You've argued for many years that mortgage payments were high. The graph shows that you were not correct, but they are now becoming high, so perhaps it is a broken clock point.rick_chasey said:
They are really very high at the moment and because they were once higher does not mean they are not high.TheBigBean said:Whilst I'm critical of the way mortgages are priced, they do take into account the forward curve.
I still don't see your point. Rates may rise further which would make make mortgages effectively more expensive than 1991. Property prices might fall as well. At the moment, all it shows it is that mortgage payments were worse in the past.
That’s what’s so frustrating about trying to discuss it.
It’s always framed as “late 80s we’re worse” sure, though increasingly not by much. That doesn’t mean this isn’t really tough, right?
Anyway, yes, rates are now high. Property prices will fall in real terms.0 -
Some of us have spent the last couple of years trying to explain to you that it was far worse in the late 80s and early 90s than it has been over the last 13 years but you constantly rejected that.rick_chasey said:
They are really very high at the moment and because they were once higher does not mean they are not high.TheBigBean said:Whilst I'm critical of the way mortgages are priced, they do take into account the forward curve.
I still don't see your point. Rates may rise further which would make make mortgages effectively more expensive than 1991. Property prices might fall as well. At the moment, all it shows it is that mortgage payments were worse in the past.
That’s what’s so frustrating about trying to discuss it.
It’s always framed as “late 80s we’re worse” sure, though increasingly not by much. That doesn’t mean this isn’t really tough, right?
Are you now finally accepting that it was far worse then than it has ever been for you?
Only now it is becoming as bad. But you effectively had free money from 2009 to 2022.1 -
They really aren't.rick_chasey said:
They are really very high at the moment and because they were once higher does not mean they are not high.TheBigBean said:Whilst I'm critical of the way mortgages are priced, they do take into account the forward curve.
I still don't see your point. Rates may rise further which would make make mortgages effectively more expensive than 1991. Property prices might fall as well. At the moment, all it shows it is that mortgage payments were worse in the past.
That’s what’s so frustrating about trying to discuss it.
It’s always framed as “late 80s we’re worse” sure, though increasingly not by much. That doesn’t mean this isn’t really tough, right?0 -
I imagine the hope is that wages are flat in real terms and that property is flat in nominal terms.First.Aspect said:
Will they fall faster, or slower than salaries?TheBigBean said:
You've argued for many years that mortgage payments were high. The graph shows that you were not correct, but they are now becoming high, so perhaps it is a broken clock point.rick_chasey said:
They are really very high at the moment and because they were once higher does not mean they are not high.TheBigBean said:Whilst I'm critical of the way mortgages are priced, they do take into account the forward curve.
I still don't see your point. Rates may rise further which would make make mortgages effectively more expensive than 1991. Property prices might fall as well. At the moment, all it shows it is that mortgage payments were worse in the past.
That’s what’s so frustrating about trying to discuss it.
It’s always framed as “late 80s we’re worse” sure, though increasingly not by much. That doesn’t mean this isn’t really tough, right?
Anyway, yes, rates are now high. Property prices will fall in real terms.0 -
Not for living memory (with the associated real wage growth)TheBigBean said:
Isn't that quite normal throughout history? 1992-2007 being an exception with a few mini crashes along the way.Jezyboy said:
I think the problem is (sort of different) this time around, in that many millennials have waited slightly longer to get onto the housing ladder. I mean, an older relative was recalling working multiple jobs to keep above water. I think these days those jobs wouldn't have paid enough to get on the ladder in the first place (in the part of the country he was in).wallace_and_gromit said:Rick - Check out the late 80s / early 90s effective rate vs today's. It was tough back in those dark days, and not just because - as my kids tell me - everything was in black and white.
Either way, after graduating into a global financial crisis, a second economic catastrophe in your early 30s is certainly great fun!0 -
SC - as you say, interest rates aren't historically high, they are pretty much at the average over the last 400 years, but Rick is referring to mortgage costs relative to other things here.2
-
I was going to say similar. I think the stagnant period post GFC led people into a false sense of security regarding low interest rates.TheBigBean said:
Isn't that quite normal throughout history? 1992-2007 being an exception with a few mini crashes along the way.Jezyboy said:
I think the problem is (sort of different) this time around, in that many millennials have waited slightly longer to get onto the housing ladder. I mean, an older relative was recalling working multiple jobs to keep above water. I think these days those jobs wouldn't have paid enough to get on the ladder in the first place (in the part of the country he was in).wallace_and_gromit said:Rick - Check out the late 80s / early 90s effective rate vs today's. It was tough back in those dark days, and not just because - as my kids tell me - everything was in black and white.
Either way, after graduating into a global financial crisis, a second economic catastrophe in your early 30s is certainly great fun!
Financial security has always been a rollercoaster ride.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]1 -
if property prices stagnate for 3 years and wage increase continue at 7% it will make a huge difference.First.Aspect said:
Will they fall faster, or slower than salaries?TheBigBean said:
You've argued for many years that mortgage payments were high. The graph shows that you were not correct, but they are now becoming high, so perhaps it is a broken clock point.rick_chasey said:
They are really very high at the moment and because they were once higher does not mean they are not high.TheBigBean said:Whilst I'm critical of the way mortgages are priced, they do take into account the forward curve.
I still don't see your point. Rates may rise further which would make make mortgages effectively more expensive than 1991. Property prices might fall as well. At the moment, all it shows it is that mortgage payments were worse in the past.
That’s what’s so frustrating about trying to discuss it.
It’s always framed as “late 80s we’re worse” sure, though increasingly not by much. That doesn’t mean this isn’t really tough, right?
Anyway, yes, rates are now high. Property prices will fall in real terms.0 -
Only they won't and they won't.surrey_commuter said:
if property prices stagnate for 3 years and wage increase continue at 7% it will make a huge difference.First.Aspect said:
Will they fall faster, or slower than salaries?TheBigBean said:
You've argued for many years that mortgage payments were high. The graph shows that you were not correct, but they are now becoming high, so perhaps it is a broken clock point.rick_chasey said:
They are really very high at the moment and because they were once higher does not mean they are not high.TheBigBean said:Whilst I'm critical of the way mortgages are priced, they do take into account the forward curve.
I still don't see your point. Rates may rise further which would make make mortgages effectively more expensive than 1991. Property prices might fall as well. At the moment, all it shows it is that mortgage payments were worse in the past.
That’s what’s so frustrating about trying to discuss it.
It’s always framed as “late 80s we’re worse” sure, though increasingly not by much. That doesn’t mean this isn’t really tough, right?
Anyway, yes, rates are now high. Property prices will fall in real terms.0 -
No. Just highlighting things have been as tough re affordability in the past as they are now, which you've always struggled to accept.rick_chasey said:
So the chart is wrong?wallace_and_gromit said:Rick - Check out the late 80s / early 90s effective rate vs today's. It was tough back in those dark days, and not just because - as my kids tell me - everything was in black and white.
4 -
Hasn't he said exactly that? Pretty much he was also previously saying that things were a lot harder than headline rates suggest in comparison to the 80s.wallace_and_gromit said:
No. Just highlighting things have been as tough re affordability in the past as they are now, which you've always struggled to accept.rick_chasey said:
So the chart is wrong?wallace_and_gromit said:Rick - Check out the late 80s / early 90s effective rate vs today's. It was tough back in those dark days, and not just because - as my kids tell me - everything was in black and white.
I normally hate to agree with RC, but there seems to be no other option.
0 -
The problem for most millennials hasn't been the affordability of the mortgage payments...which were often lower than the rent payments they previously paid, but getting into the market in the first place.1
-
I graduated straight into Gulf War I (the uncertainty associated with it, not the battlefield itself) and the fallout from the "Lawson Boom" / negative equity, then went through Black Wednesday, the Dot Com saga (very bad for the consulting world in which I worked at the time), 9/11, Gulf War II and then the GFC by my late 30s!Jezyboy said:Either way, after graduating into a global financial crisis, a second economic catastrophe in your early 30s is certainly great fun!
I'm not saying things are easy / great now. Just that there were challenges in the "Old Days" too. The last 10-15 years of virtually non-existent interest rates is a historical anomaly really.
0 -
The early 90s was pretty grim for graduates. Lots of my 1990 cohort got canned in 1991/92 and a fair few who took a year out were unemployed or doing bar work etc. until 1994. They weren't called "Major's Millions" for nothing!TheBigBean said:
Isn't that quite normal throughout history? 1992-2007 being an exception with a few mini crashes along the way.Jezyboy said:
I think the problem is (sort of different) this time around, in that many millennials have waited slightly longer to get onto the housing ladder. I mean, an older relative was recalling working multiple jobs to keep above water. I think these days those jobs wouldn't have paid enough to get on the ladder in the first place (in the part of the country he was in).wallace_and_gromit said:Rick - Check out the late 80s / early 90s effective rate vs today's. It was tough back in those dark days, and not just because - as my kids tell me - everything was in black and white.
Either way, after graduating into a global financial crisis, a second economic catastrophe in your early 30s is certainly great fun!0 -
Was it that easy in 1990? Clearly 1998-2002 was a good time to buy.Jezyboy said:The problem for most millennials hasn't been the affordability of the mortgage payments...which were often lower than the rent payments they previously paid, but getting into the market in the first place.
It is never going to be the same for every generation. I accept that I paid more for property, but benefited in other ways e.g. years spent travelling.
0 -
Rates are irrelevant without taking the cost of mortgage servicing into account. The chart is more illustrative than just talking rates.wallace_and_gromit said:
I graduated straight into Gulf War I (the uncertainty associated with it, not the battlefield itself) and the fallout from the "Lawson Boom" / negative equity, then went through Black Wednesday, the Dot Com saga (very bad for the consulting world in which I worked at the time), 9/11, Gulf War II and then the GFC by my late 30s!Jezyboy said:Either way, after graduating into a global financial crisis, a second economic catastrophe in your early 30s is certainly great fun!
I'm not saying things are easy / great now. Just that there were challenges in the "Old Days" too. The last 10-15 years of virtually non-existent interest rates is a historical anomaly really.
After all, rates were so low because growth was so anaemic / non existent0 -
I'd be tempted to argue the GFC and COVID have been worse and longer lasting. However, I don't want to get into a four Yorkshireman type sketch! I also know a few older people who lost a lot in 2008 and had life plans ruined, so I appreciate it's not like it didn't screw over other generations.wallace_and_gromit said:
I graduated straight into Gulf War I (the uncertainty associated with it, not the battlefield itself) and the fallout from the "Lawson Boom" / negative equity, then went through Black Wednesday, the Dot Com saga (very bad for the consulting world in which I worked at the time), 9/11, Gulf War II and then the GFC by my late 30s!Jezyboy said:Either way, after graduating into a global financial crisis, a second economic catastrophe in your early 30s is certainly great fun!
I'm not saying things are easy / great now. Just that there were challenges in the "Old Days" too. The last 10-15 years of virtually non-existent interest rates is a historical anomaly really.0 -
I don't know, but I'm not sure it's fair to compare the level of difficulty in entering the market across the last 10 years, with that of (potentially) the worst year in the last 40. The lucky millennials who have been able to get into the market have benefited from low interest rates, and seen their house value go up, but if you're looking to move up the ladder, the rising market isn't necessarily helpful.TheBigBean said:
Was it that easy in 1990? Clearly 1998-2002 was a good time to buy.Jezyboy said:The problem for most millennials hasn't been the affordability of the mortgage payments...which were often lower than the rent payments they previously paid, but getting into the market in the first place.
It is never going to be the same for every generation. I accept that I paid more for property, but benefited in other ways e.g. years spent travelling.
0 -
Whereas now it's both?Jezyboy said:The problem for most millennials hasn't been the affordability of the mortgage payments...which were often lower than the rent payments they previously paid, but getting into the market in the first place.
1 -
Sure. Cost of having a roof over your head has grown versus wages for a while now. Renting or mortgages, or indeed if you want to buy cash.Jezyboy said:
I don't know, but I'm not sure it's fair to compare the level of difficulty in entering the market across the last 10 years, with that of (potentially) the worst year in the last 40. The lucky millennials who have been able to get into the market have benefited from low interest rates, and seen their house value go up, but if you're looking to move up the ladder, the rising market isn't necessarily helpful.TheBigBean said:
Was it that easy in 1990? Clearly 1998-2002 was a good time to buy.Jezyboy said:The problem for most millennials hasn't been the affordability of the mortgage payments...which were often lower than the rent payments they previously paid, but getting into the market in the first place.
It is never going to be the same for every generation. I accept that I paid more for property, but benefited in other ways e.g. years spent travelling.0 -
Agreed, I just referenced the same time period at my age as was referenced in the post to which I responded i.e. graduation age to late 30s.Jezyboy said:
I'd be tempted to argue the GFC and COVID have been worse and longer lasting.wallace_and_gromit said:
I graduated straight into Gulf War I (the uncertainty associated with it, not the battlefield itself) and the fallout from the "Lawson Boom" / negative equity, then went through Black Wednesday, the Dot Com saga (very bad for the consulting world in which I worked at the time), 9/11, Gulf War II and then the GFC by my late 30s!Jezyboy said:Either way, after graduating into a global financial crisis, a second economic catastrophe in your early 30s is certainly great fun!
I'm not saying things are easy / great now. Just that there were challenges in the "Old Days" too. The last 10-15 years of virtually non-existent interest rates is a historical anomaly really.
The cumulative impact of the GFC is huge. Though the "F" is the wrong letter really. Financial crises - whether causes by oil price shocks or other geopolitical instability - historically don't last too long. The 2008 crisis was a banking crisis and banking crises historically take a longer time to play out, simply because of the long term nature of the balance sheets.
1 -
That's why I pointed you to the "relative rate" curve, as that adjusts for such things. I may not have plied my trade in the heady world of recruitment, but I've learnt a thing or two over the years in my various corners of FS...rick_chasey said:
Rates are irrelevant without taking the cost of mortgage servicing into account. The chart is more illustrative than just talking rates.wallace_and_gromit said:
I graduated straight into Gulf War I (the uncertainty associated with it, not the battlefield itself) and the fallout from the "Lawson Boom" / negative equity, then went through Black Wednesday, the Dot Com saga (very bad for the consulting world in which I worked at the time), 9/11, Gulf War II and then the GFC by my late 30s!Jezyboy said:Either way, after graduating into a global financial crisis, a second economic catastrophe in your early 30s is certainly great fun!
I'm not saying things are easy / great now. Just that there were challenges in the "Old Days" too. The last 10-15 years of virtually non-existent interest rates is a historical anomaly really.
0 -
Haha, Johnson writing for the Mail, just perfect.0
