LEAVE the Conservative Party and save your country!
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Who is that? It reads like nonsense.rick_chasey said:https://www.pragcap.com/everything-wrong-with-the-money-printer-go-brrrr-meme/
So a lot of you have voiced concerned about the inflationary pressure of QE, despite the evidence from the last decade.
Here's an American article (same logic, just different names for entities) describing why QE isn't inflationary (and is in fact about fiscal policy)0 -
How is it nonsense? it's a fairly readable explanation of what actually happens.
He's a published writer on these kinds of topics.0 -
Sounds like a conspiracy theory.rick_chasey said:How is it nonsense? it's a fairly readable explanation of what actually happens.
He's a published writer on these kinds of topics.2 -
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My unique understanding of the monetary system and financial markets has allowed me to provide contrarian and valuable insights in a world that is filled with opaque salesmanship.0
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After having his main advisor (who he wanted to keep on so much that he compromised coronavirus rules compliance) tell MPs that he is chaotic and unfit to be prime minister, Johnson is.....meeting Orban.
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It's not that bad. Market implation inflation forwards. If you disagree take a position.rick_chasey said:If you want to provide evidence that QE is actually inflationary I'd love to see it.
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Here's a graph putting the amount of QE in perspective, and historic inflation.
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And here's a graph of M4 increase each year. Note how the QE after the financial crash prevents it from crashing. At the time, banks held on to the cash because their reserves were severely depleted by the crash, new requirements were brought in and they were really not in a position to lend. None of that is the case this time, so it is not a great example to use when considering the impact of QE. That doesn't mean inflation will go wild, the M4 increase is still not that great, but more inflation remains a possibility.
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Just me that thinks most will go on a spending splurge once the shackles are off then?The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.1 -
Given how busy local tradesmen seem to be currently, my anecdotal non evidence would suggest those who are cash flush have been spending their resturant and holidays budget on home improvement.pblakeney said:Just me that thinks most will go on a spending splurge once the shackles are off then?
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Im not saying (in this instance) more inflation is not possible but that QE on its own is not the cause as the mechanism (as explained in the article) does not generate higher prices.TheBigBean said:And here's a graph of M4 increase each year. Note how the QE after the financial crash prevents it from crashing. At the time, banks held on to the cash because their reserves were severely depleted by the crash, new requirements were brought in and they were really not in a position to lend. None of that is the case this time, so it is not a great example to use when considering the impact of QE. That doesn't mean inflation will go wild, the M4 increase is still not that great, but more inflation remains a possibility.
Most senior economists agree QE across the western world had not caused a material increase in inflation.
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Indeed. For all this talk of people going out again and splurging what restaurants and bars etc have lost that can not be recovered is time. For all the days closed they can't just magically produce extra tables to supply meals that were never eaten and likewise those going out can not eat and drink twice as much to make up for lost business. The spare cash is already being spent on other goods and services from what I can tell.Jezyboy said:
Given how busy local tradesmen seem to be currently, my anecdotal non evidence would suggest those who are cash flush have been spending their resturant and holidays budget on home improvement.pblakeney said:Just me that thinks most will go on a spending splurge once the shackles are off then?
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Must be different circles. All I hear is people planning to go to this restaurant, that restaurant, this pub, that pub, this place on holiday and got to get back there...verylonglegs said:
Indeed. For all this talk of people going out again and splurging what restaurants and bars etc have lost that can not be recovered is time. For all the days closed they can't just magically produce extra tables to supply meals that were never eaten and likewise those going out can not eat and drink twice as much to make up for lost business. The spare cash is already being spent on other goods and services from what I can tell.Jezyboy said:
Given how busy local tradesmen seem to be currently, my anecdotal non evidence would suggest those who are cash flush have been spending their resturant and holidays budget on home improvement.pblakeney said:Just me that thinks most will go on a spending splurge once the shackles are off then?
What you are talking about is people spending what they would have last year, just on different things. I read it as people are going to celebrate the recovered freedom in spades.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.1 -
People can eat out more and spend more, so restaurants will be busier mid-week.verylonglegs said:
Indeed. For all this talk of people going out again and splurging what restaurants and bars etc have lost that can not be recovered is time. For all the days closed they can't just magically produce extra tables to supply meals that were never eaten and likewise those going out can not eat and drink twice as much to make up for lost business. The spare cash is already being spent on other goods and services from what I can tell.Jezyboy said:
Given how busy local tradesmen seem to be currently, my anecdotal non evidence would suggest those who are cash flush have been spending their resturant and holidays budget on home improvement.pblakeney said:Just me that thinks most will go on a spending splurge once the shackles are off then?
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Correct.Jezyboy said:
Given how busy local tradesmen seem to be currently, my anecdotal non evidence would suggest those who are cash flush have been spending their resturant and holidays budget on home improvement.pblakeney said:Just me that thinks most will go on a spending splurge once the shackles are off then?
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Part of me also thinks the celebrations coming out are going to be slightly muted
Lost loved ones, spectre of a 4th wave, lots of lost jobs.
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No-one my age is really thinking that far ahead to be honest. Still August & later for most of us getting the 2nd jab. The idea of "celebrating" seems a long way off. It's lots of "We should do something in Sept/Oct" at least amongst my circle of friends and colleagues.pblakeney said:
Must be different circles. All I hear is people planning to go to this restaurant, that restaurant, this pub, that pub, this place on holiday and got to get back there...verylonglegs said:
Indeed. For all this talk of people going out again and splurging what restaurants and bars etc have lost that can not be recovered is time. For all the days closed they can't just magically produce extra tables to supply meals that were never eaten and likewise those going out can not eat and drink twice as much to make up for lost business. The spare cash is already being spent on other goods and services from what I can tell.Jezyboy said:
Given how busy local tradesmen seem to be currently, my anecdotal non evidence would suggest those who are cash flush have been spending their resturant and holidays budget on home improvement.pblakeney said:Just me that thinks most will go on a spending splurge once the shackles are off then?
What you are talking about is people spending what they would have last year, just on different things. I read it as people are going to celebrate the recovered freedom in spades.0 -
are people really going out to celebrate? I just see a gradual return to normality as people recalibrate the risk0
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I agree, it's not exactly VE day is it. More like, we got most of the enemy but they are still all over the country - head out but keep an eye over your shoulder.surrey_commuter said:are people really going out to celebrate? I just see a gradual return to normality as people recalibrate the risk
- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
I think it's overblown by the newspapers, with the opening of retail there were queues for a few shops in the city centre on the local TV news but I was told a week later it was fairly dead again.0
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I cycled through the centre of town last weekend - that was as busy as pre-pandemic (mainly under 30 to be honest) but there weren't many queues outside of shops and given the fairly strict limits to the number of people in shops I can't imagine they were all splashing the cash.verylonglegs said:I think it's overblown by the newspapers, with the opening of retail there were queues for a few shops in the city centre on the local TV news but I was told a week later it was fairly dead again.
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At the same time we are asked to believe that Johnson was unaware that someone else had stepped in and settled the bill for his fiancé's interior design tastes *without him realising*. It almost makes Cummings claim of an eye test seem plausible.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Wasn't he in hospital at the time?rjsterry said:At the same time we are asked to believe that Johnson was unaware that someone else had stepped in and settled the bill for his fiancé's interior design tastes *without him realising*. It almost makes Cummings claim of an eye test seem plausible.
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HIGNFY absolutely decimated the Cummings interview. Was rather amusing0
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Fake news. It hasn't been amusing for about 25 years.shirley_basso said:HIGNFY absolutely decimated the Cummings interview. Was rather amusing
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No, it was settled in October.TheBigBean said:
Wasn't he in hospital at the time?rjsterry said:At the same time we are asked to believe that Johnson was unaware that someone else had stepped in and settled the bill for his fiancé's interior design tastes *without him realising*. It almost makes Cummings claim of an eye test seem plausible.
He had £200,000 worth of work done without knowing how it was going to be paid for, and the one who gets hacked over the coals is the official who didn't tell him that someone else has paid it.
He really is chaotic.0 -
I’d have thought given you’re posting private eye front covers it’d be exactly what you likeshortfall said:
Fake news. It hasn't been amusing for about 25 years.shirley_basso said:HIGNFY absolutely decimated the Cummings interview. Was rather amusing
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