La Vuelta a España 2018 - Pre race chat

DeadCalm

All but a few teams have been announced. What are people's predictions? A year ago, with this parcours and startlist, Quintana would have been overwhelming favourite. Not so much now I suspect, but who will be the main challengers? Nibali and Porte have both played down their chances. So has Pinot. Kruijswijk? But Jumbo have said that Bennett is their main man. Can Carapaz and Lopez step up and take their rivalry from the Giro to the next level? Will Quintana's biggest rival will be from within his own team? Who have I forgotten?

Tom Dean

Your men les Yates

salsiccia1

If Nibali has recovered OK from his crash at the Tour, he's favourite for me.

carbonclem

Was Portes injuries ever really confirmed? It seemed at the time he may have over reacted a bit and wasn't as hurt as originally thought, but had to see it through. If he wasn't badly injured he'll surely be looking for another chance to muck it up?
Can't see Nibali being in good enough shape for GC. Simon Yates has the chance to chill his boots a bit and come good, maybe. No idea on Quintana

I hope a genuine new GC rider wins though, and not some chancer in a weakened field.

dstev55

Nibali or Porte for me, dependent on their injury recovery.

Would love to see Kruijswijk do something after his near miss at the Giro a couple of years back.

Can't see El Ratface delivering, just don't think he's got it in him at the moment.

blazing_saddles

Another heads up that there won't be any fancy threads from me until Friday of week 1, if folks still would like them.

Landa out after failing to recover in time and the latest drop out is Sunweb's Phil Bauhaus who will be replaced by Max Walscheid. So, just swap one German sprinter for another.

The race does appear very unpredictable to me, with Giro riders doing battle with the crocked, failed or just riding on returnees from Le Tour.
Hard to know who will go well early on, let alone by the time the third week comes around.

DeadCalm

Tom Dean wrote:

Your men les Yates

Would love them to mount a challenge but the route looks too hard to me. And I don't want to jinx them by predicting too much. Can see them picking up a stage or two though.

specialgueststar

Must be the best opportunity that Pinot is going to get. A good build up to the Giro and a good Giro until exhaustion. Its how he has come back from that but apparently is in good form looking untroubled in Poland

Got to be thinking about Dan Martin for a possible podium?

joe_totale-2

SpecialGuestStar wrote:

Got to be thinking about Dan Martin for a possible podium?

Depends on if he will get any support as the UAE team leader will be Aru.

Something in my bones feels tells me that Miguel Angel Lopez will get the win.

yorkshireraw

Would have said Landa vs Lopez, but now Landa is out, I think Quintana has a shot - he's not looking like a TDF winner anytime soon, but Movistar know how to play this one, esp with no big GC hitter from Sky.

All the noises from Nibali suggest it's not for him, but hopefully he's bluffing.

Contador retired a year too early.

poweredbyidris

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Another heads up that there won't be any fancy threads from me until Friday of week 1, if folks still would like them.

Landa out after failing to recover in time and the latest drop out is Sunweb's Phil Bauhaus who will be replaced by Max Walscheid. So, just swap one German sprinter for another.

The race does appear very unpredictable to me, with Giro riders doing battle with the crocked, failed or just riding on returnees from Le Tour.
Hard to know who will go well early on, let alone by the time the third week comes around.

I for one would like to see the info posts heading the spoiler threads again - they're a great read

indyp

Seconded on pre stage thread for Vuelta please. They add to the race and I enjoy reading them before watching any stage. best on the web imo.

As for the race think the inclusion of so many quality riders stages should be exciting viewing, hopefully.

RichN95.

Tom Dean wrote:

les Yates

He looks a bit old to me, but if Horner can win....

knedlicky

Tom Dean wrote:

Your men les Yates

Or maybe one of Los Izaguirres?
Nibali to drop out before the end, to get ready for the WC, thus allowing one of the Izaguirres a good degree of freedom from the start.

Or, perhaps a little more realistically, ...... Keldermann?
With S Yates and Lopez the other main contenders

m.r.m.

I find it really hard to call because most of the favourites are also targeting worlds (Nibali, Kwiatkowski, Valverde etc.), or rather are mainly targeting worlds. So you need a GC pick who isn't really interested in worlds.

shirley_basso

Would Tao geogehan get the call up? Sorry I've not seen any starting lists.

RichN95.

Shirley Basso wrote:

Would Tao geogehan get the call up? Sorry I've not seen any starting lists.

Almost certainly, I'd think. Sky haven't named their team yet (only team left)

RichN95.

If Nibali doesn't ride for GC as he says, this will be only the fifth GC this decade (including 2010) without Froome, Contador or Nibali on the podium. That's 22 of the last 26 that have featured at least one of them on the podium. The last without them was the 2015 Vuelta.

m.r.m.

So GC favourites are:

Simon Yates
Quintana
Landa
Uran
Kruiswijk
Lopez
Porte
Mollema
Nibali

?

Amazingly open race!

RonB

M.R.M. wrote:

So GC favourites are:

Simon Yates
Quintana
Landa
Uran
Kruiswijk
Lopez
Porte
Mollema
Nibali

?

Amazingly open race!

Swop Landa for Aru/ Martin?

RichN95.

RonB wrote:

M.R.M. wrote:

So GC favourites are:

Simon Yates
Quintana
Landa
Uran
Kruiswijk
Lopez
Porte
Mollema
Nibali

?

Amazingly open race!

Swop Landa for Aru/ Martin?

And add in Pinot too, although I seem to remember he's not great in the heat.

m.r.m.

Doubt Martin is capable. He is a great 1 day racer. But I will concede that he has as much an outside shot as Uran or Mollema.
Aru & Pinot definitely. Is Movistar's leadership settled? Will Landa ride for Quintana? AFAIK the big 3 are all riding. I'd guess Valverde will be aiming for worlds.

RichN95.

M.R.M. wrote:

Doubt Martin is capable. He is a great 1 day racer. But I will concede that he has as much an outside shot as Uran or Mollema.
Aru & Pinot definitely. Is Movistar's leadership settled? Will Landa ride for Quintana? AFAIK the big 3 are all riding. I'd guess Valverde will be aiming for worlds.

Landa's not riding

DeadCalm

RichN95 wrote:

Shirley Basso wrote:

Would Tao geogehan get the call up? Sorry I've not seen any starting lists.

Almost certainly, I'd think. Sky haven't named their team yet (only team left)

Hopefully my man Sivakov gets called up too. He's been dropped from the Deutschland Tour lineup which he was originally scheduled to do so fingers crossed. I'd like to see him and TGH given freedom to see what they can achieve rather than being forced to waste energy supporting a de la Cruz top 10 bid.

Mountains09

Really looking forward to this. I a,ways watch the tour and have done since 89 but ever since I started watching the Giro and Vuelta regularly I've enjoyed the more open racing.

Interested to see how Pinot goes in this and how Tao gets on for sky

RonB

Add Sergio Henao to the list (assuming he will be on the start list!)?

Btw, can’t see Bernal being in the team. Probably was never going to be likely, even prior to his recent injuries.

inseine

Is Wilco Kelderman a contender? I guess it's too mountainous for Kwiatkowski but are Sky really not going to challenge at all for the GC?
Majka and Zakarin could both be top ten or better, probably not podium though.

salsiccia1

Read something yesterday that said if one of the Yates boys (or Tao Geoghegan Hart ) wins, it would be the first time all three GTs in a year have been won by riders from the same country.

DeadCalm

Yay. My man rides.

Team Sky for the Vuelta a Espana: Michal Kwiatkowski, David de la Cruz, Tao Geoghegan Hart, Jonathan Castroviejo, Sergio Henao, Salvatore Puccio, Pavel Sivakov and Dylan van Baarle

Sky being fairly vague as to their objectives:

"Having enjoyed a period of sustained success – winning the last four Grand Tours, including the Giro d’Italia in May and the Tour de France last month – the team will now be looking to leave its mark on the Vuelta a España.

The squad of Michal Kwiatkowski, David de la Cruz, Tao Geoghegan Hart, Jonathan Castroviejo, Sergio Henao, Salvatore Puccio, Pavel Sivakov and Dylan van Baarle represents an exciting blend of youth and experience – riders making their Grand Tour debuts at the start of their careers; riders who have experience of winning Grand Tours with Team Sky; and riders looking to make the final step in performance as GC riders in their own right."

inseine

Salsiccia1 wrote:

Read something yesterday that said if one of the Yates boys (or Tao Geoghegan Hart ) wins, it would be the first time all three GTs in a year have been won by riders from the same country.

I heard the Cycling Podcast joking about three British winners being a first. I quick wiki search says that the French won all three in 1964

inseine

inseine wrote:

Salsiccia1 wrote:

Read something yesterday that said if one of the Yates boys (or Tao Geoghegan Hart ) wins, it would be the first time all three GTs in a year have been won by riders from the same country.

I heard the Cycling Podcast joking about three British winners being a first. I quick wiki search says that the French won all three in 1964

and Spain in 2008