Will Success Spoil Geraint Thomas?

RichN95.

I think Thomas would have his best chance of another good Tour result as Froome's back-up again rather than taking him on as a leader of another team.

DeadCalm

RichN95 wrote:

I think Thomas would have his best chance of another good Tour result as Froome's back-up again rather than taking him on as a leader of another team.

I agree. Which team out there that would want him (and there would be a few) could realistically give him the support he would get, even as Froome's backup?

carbonclem

CarbonClem wrote:

I’d imagine remain at Sky, next year GT. Then return to classics with a possible turn at 2020 Okympics with Cav?

I don't get why classics keep coming up. Seems more like our wish fulfilment than anything pointing in that direction. His shift has clearly been away from classics and it would make enormously more financial sense for him to remain a GC contender.

I’m just recalling a pre tour interview where he said that was his plan

kleinstroker

RichN95 wrote:

I think Thomas would have his best chance of another good Tour result as Froome's back-up again rather than taking him on as a leader of another team.

I think this is on the ball, but you never know. All it would take is someone he trusts giving him bad advice

mouth

For me he stays at SKY, earning as much as a 'domestique' as he would leader elsewhere. In addition to this he probably gets some clearance to do other stuff he wants a crack at (Olympics) which he wouldn't get at, say Sunweb or Quick step.

He also becomes SKY's Classics man, supporting Froome/Bernal in the GT's.

The notion of moving Froome to one side is flawed on age alone.

BikerGroveish

He strikes me as the sort that won’t let success turn him into a bellend.

pblakeney

BikerGroveish wrote:

He strikes me as the sort that won’t let success turn him into a bellend.

An interesting conundrum. For someone to turn into a bellend would need for them not to be one in the first place. Geraint is currently not a bellend so the possibility is there.

DeVlaeminck

RichN95 wrote:

I think Thomas would have his best chance of another good Tour result as Froome's back-up again rather than taking him on as a leader of another team.

You may be right Rich but when you say good Tour result do you mean top 5 rather than a win?

I believe Froome was genuinely happy for Thomas - he already has his clean sweep of all 3 grand tours, he's had the relief of the adverse finding dismissed, his second child is on the way etc - but I can't imagine he'd be keen for Thomas to have such a free hand next July and risk the same thing happening again.

The other thing being of course that if Sky want Thomas as a super domestique does he get to lead at the Giro - and if he does how strong will his team be there?

I

RichN95.

BikerGroveish wrote:

He strikes me as the sort that won’t let success turn him into a bellend.

He's from Cardiff - and he's very typically a Cardiff bloke. We're not a city that turns out bellend celebrities. (Charlotte Church maybe)

RichN95.

DeVlaeminck wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

I think Thomas would have his best chance of another good Tour result as Froome's back-up again rather than taking him on as a leader of another team.

You may be right Rich but when you say good Tour result do you mean top 5 rather than a win?

I believe Froome was genuinely happy for Thomas - he already has his clean sweep of all 3 grand tours, he's had the relief of the adverse finding dismissed, his second child is on the way etc - but I can't imagine he'd be keen for Thomas to have such a free hand next July and risk the same thing happening again.

The other thing being of course that if Sky want Thomas as a super domestique does he get to lead at the Giro - and if he does how strong will his team be there?

I

By good result, I mean the best that he can get. I don't believe for a second that he's as good a GT rider as Froome. I don't think he does either.
Being a leader on another team brings pressure and expectation that he's not had before. Froome's presence took all of that off him this time.

hypster

I predict that wherever Thomas ends up he won't win another grand tour.

craigus89

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Craigus89 wrote:

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Of course Porte is a contender, he's one of the few that fit and in form could (not necessarily would) climb and TT with Froome, Dumoulin etc. He seems to fall off a lot and lack that killer instinct but wasn't that said about a certain Welshman up until 3 weeks ago?

I don't want to derail this thread but you could say that about at least 10 other guys.

I can't think of 5 who could match Froome on a climb and a TT with both on a good day. Yes there are riders who can do one or the other but 10??

Porte, Dumoulin, Roglic, Thomas and you could argue about some of them.

Like Porte?

m.r.m.

hypster wrote:

I predict that wherever Thomas ends up he won't win another grand tour.

I'll take that bet. I think staying at Sky will give him repeated opportunities to benefit from their incredibly strong lineups. All he has to do is not screw up and turn up in shape. If he targets the GT with the weakest contenders every year, he will be in with a shout for 3-4 GT victories. Just not the Tour multiple times.

RichN95.

M.R.M. wrote:

hypster wrote:

I predict that wherever Thomas ends up he won't win another grand tour.

I'll take that bet. I think staying at Sky will give him repeated opportunities to benefit from their incredibly strong lineups. All he has to do is not screw up and turn up in shape. If he targets the GT with the weakest contenders every year, he will be in with a shout for 3-4 GT victories. Just not the Tour multiple times.

I expect next year Sky will turn up to the Tour with Thomas and Froome, neither having done the Giro - which Bernal will lead. Froome will be leader and if he wins Thomas will lead the Vuelta.

prawny

DeVlaeminck wrote:

The other thing being of course that if Sky want Thomas as a super domestique does he get to lead at the Giro - and if he does how strong will his team be there?

He had a crack at the Giro last year(?) IIRC the team was solid but he got I'll early doors and went home and back to being No1 no2.

I can't see him leaving Sky, I get the impression he's happy with his lot. I think he'll probably go the way of Wiggins (giro, PR, back to the track), but with more success due to his age.

I'd be gutted if he went to Astana.

RichN95.

prawny wrote:

I'd be gutted if he went to Astana.

At least it will get him away from the insinuations of the UK media (they don't know who Astana are)

prawny

That's true. It amazes me the passes that some teams get at least in the English speaking media.

hypster

As a little adjunct to this thread, it's my impression that riders are generally less successful after leaving Sky for other teams than they were at Sky as "domestiques with benefits" shall we say. What do we think?

m.r.m.

When they leave they no longer get the 5 star support of the team and have to face the big dog who still rides for Sky. Since they most likely are only possibly better in select areas than Froome and not everywhere, everything has to go perfect for them to win. That is unlikely, especially since they are prone to mistakes due to the added pressure.

RichN95.

hypster wrote:

As a little adjunct to this thread, it's my impression that riders are generally less successful after leaving Sky for other teams than they were at Sky as "domestiques with benefits" shall we say. What do we think?

It depends how you define successful. Richie Porte certainly has better palmares since leaving. Landa went from number two at Sky to number two (or three) at Movistar. Of others, Nieve is really only as good as his leader.

amrushton

Sky have the magic for certain riders. Not everyone wants a part of it but guys like Luke Rowe and Froome are at their best in that organization. Those who leave seem to achieve limited success. Thomas will stay. Better to be #2 in the #1 team thnn Romain Bardet or Richie Porte

G Hincapie

RichN95 wrote:

M.R.M. wrote:

hypster wrote:

I predict that wherever Thomas ends up he won't win another grand tour.

I'll take that bet. I think staying at Sky will give him repeated opportunities to benefit from their incredibly strong lineups. All he has to do is not screw up and turn up in shape. If he targets the GT with the weakest contenders every year, he will be in with a shout for 3-4 GT victories. Just not the Tour multiple times.

I expect next year Sky will turn up to the Tour with Thomas and Froome, neither having done the Giro - which Bernal will lead. Froome will be leader and if he wins Thomas will lead the Vuelta.

That sucks for Thomas TBH. So he kills himself in the TdF and then goes to the Vuelta completely knackered?

RichN95.

G Hincapie wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

M.R.M. wrote:

hypster wrote:

I predict that wherever Thomas ends up he won't win another grand tour.

I'll take that bet. I think staying at Sky will give him repeated opportunities to benefit from their incredibly strong lineups. All he has to do is not screw up and turn up in shape. If he targets the GT with the weakest contenders every year, he will be in with a shout for 3-4 GT victories. Just not the Tour multiple times.

I expect next year Sky will turn up to the Tour with Thomas and Froome, neither having done the Giro - which Bernal will lead. Froome will be leader and if he wins Thomas will lead the Vuelta.

That sucks for Thomas TBH. So he kills himself in the TdF and then goes to the Vuelta completely knackered?

I'm not anticipating him killing himself - more riding as a co-leader with Froome as they did this year.

m.r.m.

Thomas could probably place on the podium or win the Vuelta this year. Didn't really seem to have to go super deep at any point this Tour. Was in complete control the entire time.

ddraver

G Hincapie wrote:

pat1cp wrote:

http://www.sttewdricshouse.co.uk/home/

How lovely! I think this is a very astute investment. Nice

Trying to imagine Gee+10 years now as a wedding planner...

hypster

RichN95 wrote:

hypster wrote:

As a little adjunct to this thread, it's my impression that riders are generally less successful after leaving Sky for other teams than they were at Sky as "domestiques with benefits" shall we say. What do we think?

It depends how you define successful. Richie Porte certainly has better palmares since leaving. Landa went from number two at Sky to number two (or three) at Movistar. Of others, Nieve is really only as good as his leader.

But Richie Porte has been away from Sky for a few years now, who's to say his palmares wouldn't have been even better had he stayed at Sky? He was the #2 when he left and would have been in the box seat that Thomas now occupies for non-Froome ambitions.

amrushton wrote:

Sky have the magic for certain riders. Not everyone wants a part of it but guys like Luke Rowe and Froome are at their best in that organization. Those who leave seem to achieve limited success. Thomas will stay. Better to be #2 in the #1 team thnn Romain Bardet or Richie Porte

That's pretty much the way I feel about it. Thomas would be mad to leave Sky and what would induce him, money?

I think the big budget and the attitude/support at Sky make it possible for riders there to reach their full potential in terms of performance. I would also guess performance is expected for the sort of money they pay. I get the impression that riders on other teams are allowed to do their own thing and maybe not maximise their performance, Quintana for instance.

hanshotfirst

RichN95 wrote:

BikerGroveish wrote:

He strikes me as the sort that won’t let success turn him into a bellend.

He's from Cardiff - and he's very typically a Cardiff bloke. We're not a city that turns out bellend celebrities. (Charlotte Church maybe)

I'd say Charlotte Church is a good lass actually. Her ex-man on the other hand....

Find a lot of hot takes in this thread quite baffling to be honest. Up until, what... stage 19(?) he was still towing the party line saying he'd ride for Froome despite looking the better of the 2. If it comes to next year and Brailsford says you're backup to Chris and if he crashes out it's all yours, he's not going to turn around and say "wait a minute Dave, I won the tour last year, I'm the star now" he's going to say "yeah, alright, fair enough" and ride as a domestique.

As Rich said, there's no other team that could offer him a leader role and a team capable of out-performing Sky's roster so why would he move? Even if it was for more money, which would be matched by Sky anyway.

RichN95.

hanshotfirst wrote:

I'd say Charlotte Church is a good lass actually. Her ex-man on the other hand....

Yeah, he's from Bridgend

indyp

Is the talk of listening to offers from other teams and DB saying Sky is the best place for him just a way of upping his salary? (not unlike some footballers when their contract is near an end). Maybe I'm too cynical but I don't think Thomas will be riding for a different team next season. If he was mid twenties or so then fair enough but not this late in his career.

DeVlaeminck

hanshotfirst wrote:

As Rich said, there's no other team that could offer him a leader role and a team capable of out-performing Sky's roster so why would he move? Even if it was for more money, which would be matched by Sky anyway.

Well I agree he probably wont move because if he was going to he'd have done it a few years ago but as to why should he move...to lead a team.

He's a world class bike racer - he's reigning Tour champion - it's be *almost* unprecedented to ride the next year as a domestique. Would most people not want to see what they could do head to head with Froome, to prove to himself what his limits are. Thomas may not be "most people" and if he should do what makes him happy but ultimately he should move for sporting reasons. Plus if he won another Tour he becomes a star and the money he could make eclipses whatever Sky pay him.