Can Simon Yates win a Grand Tour?

ugo.santalucia

Spent too much too early and ran out of beans in the last week... it's typical of younger riders.
He will learn from his mistakes, he has shown that he can win a GT if he learns discipline...

OR he will become another Ritchie Porte... :-)

above_the_cows

Mad_Malx wrote:

I wonder if Yates might have made the podium without Froome’s resurrection. Maybe he was going to meltdown anyway, but it was Tom following Froome on stage 18 where he snapped. Similar I guess for Pozzo and peanut.

Yates was dropped well before Froome attacked. He was put under pressure by the speed at which Sky were going up the lower slopes of the Finestre. Pozzovivo was dropped by the Froome attack and Dumoulin Pinot follow. Yates was already out of the pink jersey by then.

MishMash95

Whilst Yates is a phenomenal climber, I wonder if lighter riders just get chipped away more on the flat stages where they have to work a little bit harder (even with good team support) than the all-rounders who have a higher base power. It seems to be a bit of a common trend that the all-rounder type riders just have better overall success, unless the course really suits pure climbers, such as having a mountain time trial e.g. 2014 Giro for Quintana.

Naturally it is hard to comment as Yates is young and definitely looked incredibly strong. Hopefully we'll see more of him, it was definitely great racing to watch nonetheless.

Pross

I said it when Yates was still in the lead after the TT but so far I can’t recall him (or his brother for that matter) being able to stay with the leaders on the longest climbs whilst the pressure is on. If you are a GT contender without a particularly strong TT then that’s the terrain where you really have to be the best and be able to make time back.

rick_chasey

Partly depends on where GT organisers go in terms of the amount of TTing.

From the comments I heard from his team, he went super deep in the TT and never felt the same afterwards.

There's a lot of focus on him popping off the front to pick up seconds here and there.

Much less on the fact that, even on banging form, he ships minutes in decent length TTs, not seconds.

Vino'sGhost

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Also Valverde climbs in a much higher gear - though his winning may have something to do with gear of another sort.

So does Froome

iainf72

No

[Happy to be wrong though]

morstar

Bo Duke wrote:

As to the psychological impact, he's sharing that same dark place with Pinot! Yates is better than Pinot who I don't think can win a GT but Yates has the ability.

I think Pinot has absolutely stacks of talent but like you I don't think he'll win a GT. He is the perfect example of why the French haven't won a GT since the 80's. Big fish in the French pond. Not able to match teams using modern training. Pinot is the sort of rider who would benefit from a Sky like structure. No compromise, built for success.

RichN95.

morstar wrote:

Bo Duke wrote:

As to the psychological impact, he's sharing that same dark place with Pinot! Yates is better than Pinot who I don't think can win a GT but Yates has the ability.

I think Pinot has absolutely stacks of talent but like you I don't think he'll win a GT. He is the perfect example of why the French haven't won a GT since the 80's. Big fish in the French pond. Not able to match teams using modern training. Pinot is the sort of rider who would benefit from a Sky like structure. No compromise, built for success.

I think there's been an existential battle within FdJ for some time now. Madiot, the arch traditionalist who thinks that the world has nothing to teach France about cycling against Fred Grappe, flanked by Julien Pinot, who have tried to drag him into the 21st century.

I think Barguil is a more interesting example. He won two stages, KOM and a top ten at the Tour, then takes a demotion to a Pro Conti team. Why he did that is probably at the heart of the problems with French cycling. AG2R have bucked the trend since Bardet became their main man. He's certainly ambitious but I think still burdened by this French need to show panache.

morstar

RichN95 wrote:

morstar wrote:

Bo Duke wrote:

As to the psychological impact, he's sharing that same dark place with Pinot! Yates is better than Pinot who I don't think can win a GT but Yates has the ability.

I think Pinot has absolutely stacks of talent but like you I don't think he'll win a GT. He is the perfect example of why the French haven't won a GT since the 80's. Big fish in the French pond. Not able to match teams using modern training. Pinot is the sort of rider who would benefit from a Sky like structure. No compromise, built for success.

I think there's been an existential battle within FdJ for some time now. Madiot, the arch traditionalist who thinks that the world has nothing to teach France about cycling against Fred Grappe, flanked by Julien Pinot, who have tried to drag him into the 21st century.

I think Barguil is a more interesting example. He won two stages, KOM and a top ten at the Tour, then takes a demotion to a Pro Conti team. Why he did that is probably at the heart of the problems with French cycling. AG2R have bucked the trend since Bardet became their main man. He's certainly ambitious but I think still burdened by this French need to show panache.

Interesting points. Don't get me wrong, I love the French passion for doing their own thing but, when is one of their big name riders going to fly the nest and head to a more successful (overseas) team stating their reason for doing so? Maybe the likes of Barguil doing that would be a more compelling story than stepping down a level. Then the French may have to address their systematic under-performance which is absolutely what we are talking about given their depth of talent.

RichN95.

morstar wrote:

Interesting points. Don't get me wrong, I love the French passion for doing their own thing but, when is one of their big name riders going to fly the nest and head to a more successful (overseas) team stating their reason for doing so? Maybe the likes of Barguil doing that would be a more compelling story than stepping down a level. Then the French may have to address their systematic under-performance which is absolutely what we are talking about given their depth of talent.

Alaphilippe is doing well. Sivakov is an interesting one at Sky - Russian in the same way as Froome is British - he's basically French, but not a slave to national identity.

Ultimately I think French cycling is overindulged by ASO and has got flabby and complacent. They've had the same four main teams for twenty years, three with the same sponsor and three of them led by the same men. ASO wildcards assured. There's no jeopardy.

knedlicky

Jan Ullrich said “ I've seen lots of thin riders in the peloton, but only a few Tour winners“.

I don't think he was justifying his regular winter weight gains.

I think he's mostly right and it's the reason why Yates (and for that matter, Barguil and Bardet) won't win the TdF unless the route is cut out for them. Colombians too.
Pity for the French that Pinot lacks something.
Spain have Landa but I'm unsure if he has the right mentality.
Dumoulin in 2019?

m.r.m.

Judging by the TT kilometres in the recent Tours de France and the short super steep MTF, the route is trying to be modelled to help Bardet as much as possible.

m.r.m.

knedlicky wrote:

Homer Simpson said “D'oh, I've seen lots of thin riders in the peloton, but only a few Tour winners“.

philbar72

the answer is of course yes. if the TT(s) are short and he gets a bike that fits him in the Timetrials, then yes as he can limit his losses. if the course doesn't suit, I see him doing a Dan martin and going for the occasional stage win, where the stage does suit his punchier than an average GC contender finish.

I also think he could win a hilly monument. or 2.

RichN95.

I wouldn't have said Pereiro, Cobo, Horner and Hesjedal would win a Grand Tour, but they did. So Yates definitely can. In the long run I think he'll be like a British version of Romain Bardet.

above_the_cows

Or J-Rod.

rick_chasey

knedlicky wrote:

Jan Ullrich said “ I've seen lots of thin riders in the peloton, but only a few Tour winners“.

Was that before or after he got spanked by Pantani?

inseine

Since there seems to have been quite a few riders to have won GTs who we never thought would have and others who should have but never did, i think it's fair to say ther's no way of telling.

morstar

knedlicky wrote:

Pity for the French that Pinot lacks something.
Spain have Landa but I'm unsure if he has the right mentality.
Dumoulin in 2019?

What Pinot lacks is the right coaching. Already a podium contender in GT's for several years and hasn't improved.
Contrast that to Sky who have consistently got riders maximising their potential.

gsk82

morstar wrote:

Bo Duke wrote:

As to the psychological impact, he's sharing that same dark place with Pinot! Yates is better than Pinot who I don't think can win a GT but Yates has the ability.

I think Pinot has absolutely stacks of talent but like you I don't think he'll win a GT. He is the perfect example of why the French haven't won a GT since the 80's. Big fish in the French pond. Not able to match teams using modern training. Pinot is the sort of rider who would benefit from a Sky like structure. No compromise, built for success.

I don't think pinot is mentally strong enough to ride for sky. He comes across like a spoilt child to me. He couldn't handle the pressure to race or train

yorkshireraw

Barguil previously tried going down the GT contender lifestyle route - moving to Nice etc. Admitted he couldn't handle it and moved back to Brittany to be near family & friends etc.
His 10th place in the TDF last year was almost by default, resulting from his attacking to win stages and the Mountains points.
His move down to Pro-conti level with Fortunao means he can be the main man and choose his objectives, plus be fairly sure they will get a TDF spot. Sunweb probably wanted him to focus more on GC, or were quite happy for him to go as they have Matthews to work for in the GTs that Tom D doesn't do.

He looks really good on a bike though, so that gives him extra points vs Pinot.

Am sure there was some quote from Bardet, even as late as last year, that he didn't really train on his TT bike much (if at all) because it bores him. AG2R should be rather annoyed at that.

morstar

gsk82 wrote:

morstar wrote:

Bo Duke wrote:

As to the psychological impact, he's sharing that same dark place with Pinot! Yates is better than Pinot who I don't think can win a GT but Yates has the ability.

I think Pinot has absolutely stacks of talent but like you I don't think he'll win a GT. He is the perfect example of why the Trench haven't won a GT since the 80's. Big fish in the French pond. Not able to match teams using modern training. Pinot is the sort of rider who would benefit from a Sky like structure. No compromise, built for success.

I don't think pinot is mentally strong enough to ride for sky. He comes across like a spoilt child to me. He couldn't handle the pressure to race or train

We have clearly made the same assessment of the rider.
That is why I think he needs a strong, structured environment. But equally agree he would likely resist. But you never really know. Some rise to the challenge while some shy away.
I think it is far too comfortable at FdJ. He must have been a major prospect coming through the junior ranks in France and has got by on talent. If he wants to be world class he now needs to eek every last drop out of that talent.
Might just have to break an egg to make an omelette.

Pross

Why are so many people saying if the TT miles are cut and there's more climbing he might win? He lost less time than expected in the TTs, it's the long climbs where he blew up spectacularly.

Mad_Malx

4 days from the end of the Giro it looked odds on.
It wasn't the TT that failed him.
Yes.

m.r.m.

He went so deep in the TT that he blew up after. When you are better at TT's as a GC rider, you don't have to go so deep, you don't try to win the stage. You manage your effort to gain time or manage the time loss in a way to ensure the jersey.

Pross

M.R.M. wrote:

He went so deep in the TT that he blew up after. When you are better at TT's as a GC rider, you don't have to go so deep, you don't try to win the stage. You manage your effort to gain time or manage the time loss in a way to ensure the jersey.

I don’t buy that, all GC contenders will give it everything on a TT. Whilst it’s a big effort it is over a relatively short time and distance. If the TT affected him more than others then it would suggest he was struggling with recovery rather than the effort itself. Being able to recover from efforts whether TTs, mountains or long hard flat stages is what ultimately makes a GT rider. People were commenting how gaunt Yates was looking by half way so maybe he was struggling to put the calories in and get a decent rest.

adr82

Pross wrote:

M.R.M. wrote:

He went so deep in the TT that he blew up after. When you are better at TT's as a GC rider, you don't have to go so deep, you don't try to win the stage. You manage your effort to gain time or manage the time loss in a way to ensure the jersey.

I don’t buy that, all GC contenders will give it everything on a TT. Whilst it’s a big effort it is over a relatively short time and distance. If the TT affected him more than others then it would suggest he was struggling with recovery rather than the effort itself. Being able to recover from efforts whether TTs, mountains or long hard flat stages is what ultimately makes a GT rider. People were commenting how gaunt Yates was looking by half way so maybe he was struggling to put the calories in and get a decent rest.

IIRC after stage 19 Matt White said something about him having some kind of stomach trouble that left him struggling to eat as much as he needed.

DeVlaeminck

Pross wrote:

M.R.M. wrote:

He went so deep in the TT that he blew up after. When you are better at TT's as a GC rider, you don't have to go so deep, you don't try to win the stage. You manage your effort to gain time or manage the time loss in a way to ensure the jersey.

I don’t buy that, all GC contenders will give it everything on a TT. Whilst it’s a big effort it is over a relatively short time and distance. If the TT affected him more than others then it would suggest he was struggling with recovery rather than the effort itself. Being able to recover from efforts whether TTs, mountains or long hard flat stages is what ultimately makes a GT rider. People were commenting how gaunt Yates was looking by half way so maybe he was struggling to put the calories in and get a decent rest.

It's possible that the TT affected him simply because you use muscles differently on a TT bike, like a lesser version of when you go for a short run for the first time in years and can hardly walk the next day when seasoned runners wouldn't feel the affects.

m.r.m.

Pross wrote:

M.R.M. wrote:

He went so deep in the TT that he blew up after. When you are better at TT's as a GC rider, you don't have to go so deep, you don't try to win the stage. You manage your effort to gain time or manage the time loss in a way to ensure the jersey.

I don’t buy that, all GC contenders will give it everything on a TT. Whilst it’s a big effort it is over a relatively short time and distance. If the TT affected him more than others then it would suggest he was struggling with recovery rather than the effort itself. Being able to recover from efforts whether TTs, mountains or long hard flat stages is what ultimately makes a GT rider. People were commenting how gaunt Yates was looking by half way so maybe he was struggling to put the calories in and get a decent rest.

I don't think it always works that way. If the TT format forces you to go that deep it doesn't matter if it's physiologically no different to climbing or anything else. He simply wouldn't need to go that deep climbing due to his weight and talent.
Having to go that deep regardless of why makes him susceptible to attacks and to cratering in subsequent stages. Having greater TT ability still allows you to keep enough in reserve.
While it may look like GC contenders go all out on every TT, Contador is a good example of often doing enough to retain GC lead, but not winning the stage. When Froome or Dumoulin win a TT in the GC lead, that doesn't mean they had to have gone 100%. Maybe they went 95% and it was enough to win. It's all really hard to quantify objectively, but I'm sure you get my gist.