Can Simon Yates win a Grand Tour?

No_Ta_Doctor

No, he can't - and much as I'd like to be proved wrong - this is why:

He climbs in too high a gear.

Sure, this gives him an advantage on shorter steeper climbs, where he can attack or react with great top end power, but on long grinds he's susceptible. That gearing just does too much damage over longer climbs.

This is particularly noticeable in the third week of a GT, where the cumulative damage starts to add up and will inevitably lead to a crack or jour sans at some point.

He needs to learn to spin and save the heavy gearing for the key moments.

veronese68

Surely that should read he can’t unless he changes his technique and learns to spin. He’s young enough to do that.

DeVlaeminck

Well it's an interesting argument but he's been 2 days away from winning this one so yes he can win one but you may have a point that is worth looking at - we all know the feeling when cumulative fatigue just means the legs don't work like you want them to.

m.r.m.

I think he can. Has massively improved his TT ability and has been dominant for 2 of 3 weeks. He is way ahead of schedule. He does need to watch out he doesn't go the Kruiswijk route though.

As to spinning, that is something he can learn if it truly is an issue. People have certain predispositions but technique can always be improved. They can analyze their data and implement a technique change if needed. His TT improvement shows his willingness to practice.

DeVlaeminck

Also Valverde climbs in a much higher gear - though his winning may have something to do with gear of another sort.

redvision

No tA Doctor wrote:

No, he can't - and much as I'd like to be proved wrong - this is why:

He climbs in too high a gear.

Dumoulin. He won the giro last year and doesn't spin up hills, he grinds a larger gear.

With a strong team around him and the experience of a couple more gt's under his belt I think he can challenge.

Mistake made this giro was taking pink too soon and not having a strong enough team to help defend it.

lettingthedaysgoby

I think he’s shown in these last few weeks that’s he’s certainly capable. He’s got plenty of time yet to do so.

timothyw

He can win a GT, but he needs to manage his efforts more.

And it wasn't for want of a stronger team - admittedly Chavez collapse did him no favours but his team was plenty strong, and they were the ones making a lot of stages that might have been quiet breakaway stages into brutal slogs, because they wanted to grab the time bonuses - ultimately, they forgot that they had to keep riding for three weeks. Penny wise, pound poor.

It's Dumoulin who would have won with a stronger team. One or two super domestiques to work with him yesterday and he could have kept in touch of Froome, and been in Pink today at least.

Mad_Malx

I wonder if Yates might have made the podium without Froome’s resurrection. Maybe he was going to meltdown anyway, but it was Tom following Froome on stage 18 where he snapped. Similar I guess for Pozzo and peanut.

DeVlaeminck

TimothyW wrote:

He can win a GT, but he needs to manage his efforts more.

And it wasn't for want of a stronger team - admittedly Chavez collapse did him no favours but his team was plenty strong, and they were the ones making a lot of stages that might have been quiet breakaway stages into brutal slogs, because they wanted to grab the time bonuses - ultimately, they forgot that they had to keep riding for three weeks. Penny wise, pound poor.

It's Dumoulin who would have won with a stronger team. One or two super domestiques to work with him yesterday and he could have kept in touch of Froome, and been in Pink today at least.

Agree Dumoulin would have win with a stronger team, a couple of strong team mates to help yesterday limit his losses.

Not sure Yates needed to manage his efforts, he needed to take time to make up for his losses in the TTs, the only way to get time is to roll the dice and attack. Yes you could probably pick a couple of days when the attacks didn't pay off or pay off enough but that's with hindsight.

Bottom line is we don't know for sure if it was fatigue or an illness, or an illness brought on by fatigue. We don't know if pedalling a bigger gear actually affects cumulative fatigue or not. It is an interesting theory but I'd like to see some evidence.

bobmcstuff

Definitely needs to manage his efforts more I think. Think he built the TT up into a 2 or 3 minute loss and put way too much into it.

alanparsons

Yes I think both he and his Brother have the ability to win a Grand Tour.
They are still 3 years or more off their peak, and they are maturing well at a strong team.
These experiences are the things that make a GT rider, very few win on their first attempt.

No_Ta_Doctor

redvision wrote:

No tA Doctor wrote:

No, he can't - and much as I'd like to be proved wrong - this is why:

He climbs in too high a gear.

Dumoulin. He won the giro last year and doesn't spin up hills, he grinds a larger gear.

With a strong team around him and the experience of a couple more gt's under his belt I think he can challenge.

Mistake made this giro was taking pink too soon and not having a strong enough team to help defend it.

Dumoulin does grind a bigger gear, but on the other hand he's a far more powerful rider just in terms of raw power and muscle mass. You rarely see him out of the saddle. Yates is always up on his pedals.

Dumoulin also has a TT to compensate for time losses in the mountains where he rides a little within himself. Yates doesn't have that luxury.

redvision

No tA Doctor wrote:

redvision wrote:

No tA Doctor wrote:

No, he can't - and much as I'd like to be proved wrong - this is why:

He climbs in too high a gear.

Dumoulin. He won the giro last year and doesn't spin up hills, he grinds a larger gear.

With a strong team around him and the experience of a couple more gt's under his belt I think he can challenge.

Mistake made this giro was taking pink too soon and not having a strong enough team to help defend it.

Dumoulin does grind a bigger gear, but on the other hand he's a far more powerful rider just in terms of raw power and muscle mass. You rarely see him out of the saddle. Yates is always up on his pedals.

You mean like contador??!! One of the greatest gt riders of the last decade.

Mentally this giro could be hard to recover from but I think it's clear the talent is there.

High cadence does not increase chances of a tour win. Ability and team strength does.

RichN95.

He just needs to structure his three weeks better. He went chasing seconds for two weeks while Sky knew there were minutes to be had in the last few days (they'd rather have been less down than they were though)

Dorset_Boy

He's still a few years away from his 'peak years' some potentially could win, if he keeps improving and can last the full 21 stages. However, there are others also maturing nicely that may get in his way.

RichN95.

Dorset Boy wrote:

He's still a few years away from his 'peak years' some potentially could win, if he keeps improving and can last the full 21 stages. However, there are others also maturing nicely that may get in his way.

The sport has never gone more than two or three years without a dominant GC rider (at least as far as the Tour goes). The next one will win the Tour by 2021 at the latest. (It's probably Bernal)

mrfpb

As I'm fairly new to GT viewing, can anyone tell me if Yates taking Pink was Plan A for the team. I thought Chavez was their GC hopeful, and Yates getting Pink (and "gifting" the stage win to Chazvez) was a bit of a surprise for them. They seemed to waste manpower protecting Chavez when he cracked, when they could have been putting more support into protecting the Pink. If Chavez had been in Pink, would they have spent as much time protecting Yates in week 1?


Yates can definitely win a GT if he gets the full support he needs from the team from day one.

RichN95.

mrfpb wrote:

As I'm fairly new to GT viewing, can anyone tell me if Yates taking Pink was Plan A for the team. I thought Chavez was their GC hopeful, and Yates getting Pink (and "gifting" the stage win to Chazvez) was a bit of a surprise for them. They seemed to waste manpower protecting Chavez when he cracked, when they could have been putting more support into protecting the Pink. If Chavez had been in Pink, would they have spent as much time protecting Yates in week 1?

I think they were intending to keep both in play, protecting both, and finding which one was the strongest - but not stopping either attacking. Chaves was seen as by most as the more likely to challenge at the start of the race due to greater experience..

When Chaves cracked they only sent back riders like Bewley and Jensen - riders who aren't going to be at the sharp end of a hard stage anyway.

DeVlaeminck

RichN95 wrote:

He just needs to structure his three weeks better. He went chasing seconds for two weeks while Sky knew there were minutes to be had in the last few days (they'd rather have been less down than they were though)

Know what you are saying but isn't his strength the ability to sprint away and take 10 or 20 seconds in the last few k ? I think pretty much all GC riders do take time where they can - even Froome. The big effort he made attacking on the penultimate climb got him a decent reward too so hard to say that was a mistake.

If he left it to the last few days there is no saying he would have been any better - Yates isn't the only rider to suffer a collapse - Aru, Chaves, Pinot - and they didn't all go chasing seconds at the end of stages for 3 weeks.

RichN95.

DeVlaeminck wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

He just needs to structure his three weeks better. He went chasing seconds for two weeks while Sky knew there were minutes to be had in the last few days (they'd rather have been less down than they were though)

Know what you are saying but isn't his strength the ability to sprint away and take 10 or 20 seconds in the last few k ? I think pretty much all GC riders do take time where they can - even Froome. The big effort he made attacking on the penultimate climb got him a decent reward too so hard to say that was a mistake.

If he left it to the last few days there is no saying he would have been any better - Yates isn't the only rider to suffer a collapse - Aru, Chaves, Pinot - and they didn't all go chasing seconds at the end of stages for 3 weeks.

His attack from 18km out the day after the Zoncolan in retrospect seemed like a move of someone who was focusing too much on having the jersey after the time trial and not seeing beyond it.

Chaves collapsed early and only had one attack. Aru has been bad since the Tour of the Alps and Pinot was in great form at the Tour of the Alps. Almost half the climbing in this Giro was in stages 18-20.

johnboy183

Yes. But question should perhaps be Will he win a GT?

DeVlaeminck

RichN95 wrote:

DeVlaeminck wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

He just needs to structure his three weeks better. He went chasing seconds for two weeks while Sky knew there were minutes to be had in the last few days (they'd rather have been less down than they were though)

Know what you are saying but isn't his strength the ability to sprint away and take 10 or 20 seconds in the last few k ? I think pretty much all GC riders do take time where they can - even Froome. The big effort he made attacking on the penultimate climb got him a decent reward too so hard to say that was a mistake.

If he left it to the last few days there is no saying he would have been any better - Yates isn't the only rider to suffer a collapse - Aru, Chaves, Pinot - and they didn't all go chasing seconds at the end of stages for 3 weeks.

His attack from 18km out the day after the Zoncolan in retrospect seemed like a move of someone who was focusing too much on having the jersey after the time trial and not seeing beyond it.

Chaves collapsed early and only had one attack. Aru has been bad since the Tour of the Alps and Pinot was in great form at the Tour of the Alps. Almost half the climbing in this Giro was in stages 18-20.

He got 40-50 seconds with that attack with a rest day straight afterwards. We can speculate about whether he'd have gone better had he not attacked there or maybe he should have gone easier in the TT etc but he didn't have a huge lead over Dumoulin, he was attacking just to stay in the lead.

RichN95.

DeVlaeminck wrote:

He got 40-50 seconds with that attack with a rest day straight afterwards. We can speculate about whether he'd have gone better had he not attacked there or maybe he should have gone easier in the TT etc but he didn't have a huge lead over Dumoulin, he was attacking just to stay in the lead.

Sure. He made the best of his form when he had it. But then he lost it. Timing is important. Planning is important.

Bo Duke

Two days from home in the pink suggests if he learns from his weaknesses he has a great chance of taking any GT Froome doesn't enter.

As to the psychological impact, he's sharing that same dark place with Pinot! Yates is better than Pinot who I don't think can win a GT but Yates has the ability.

Bo Duke

I know how Simon Yates is feeling but he is young and will be stronger for this Giro d'Italia experience
GERAINT THOMAS

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cycling/201 ... xperience/

davidof

alanparsons

I wouidn't be at all surprised if Michelton Scott send a sprint team to the TdF with Trentin, Mezgec and Albasini to the fore.
Then load up a power team for Simon to have a real dig at the Vuelta.

m.r.m.

Chaves hasn't been going all out for 1.5 weeks. Why not try him for the Tour?

alanparsons

M.R.M. wrote:

Chaves hasn't been going all out for 1.5 weeks. Why not try him for the Tour?

I would put Chaves in the Vuelta team as a super domestique for the 3rd week.
Likely to give the TdF to Adam.

Andymaxy

I don't think Yates is covered by his team as well as Chris Froome. Also you have to take into consideration that scott has to take care of up to three riders, inclucding both Adam and Simon, as well as Chavez.