Is 20mph average doable?

thejazman

rower63 wrote:

A few years ago, just out of curiosity, I built myself a model of the physics of cycling, and also spent a few days doing a “gradient-survey” of the RP circuit (i.e. walking round physically measuring the gradient at a few hundred points).

I can use it to give some quantities to your questions. Inputs include your and your bike’s weight, wheels moment of inertia, your (likely) coefficient of drag, your projected frontal area (which will scale with weight), tyres rolling res coefficient, and others. Using reasonable estimates for these parameters, I can then vary the “constant average rider power” input to arrive at your current time of 1hr17.

I have also assumed your “correct” weight is 85kg and you are currently 98kg. Assuming no wind, the power needed to achieve 1hr17 comes out around 200W.

Simply dropping 13kg (and scaling your size appropriately) and leaving power the same will give you an immediate 4 minutes, leading to 1hr13.

At the “new” weight, the power required to achieve 60 minutes for 3 laps is just over 300W, which is a considerable difference.

So it suggests you need to go from 200W at 98kg to 300W at 85kg to achieve a 17 minute improvement, all other things being equal. 300W for an hour is indicative of a reasonably good club cyclist.

So, to answer your questions:

1. Not by September, but with dedication and structured training, perhaps eventually yes.
2. As for 1. , by September highly unlikely unless you are a former high-achieving athlete who’s currently a bit unfit.
3. Ceteris paribus, 4 minutes.

As others have said, wind conditions make a big difference too, so choose a day of light NE wind if you can – that’s when I have observed the best times taking place, and it’s what the simulation predicts too.

I've also assumed you're always in the same position, but as you get better you'll learn to adopt more aero positioning, that will make a significant extra difference too.

To get a better idea of how such specific predictions can be made, and how the model works, visit my website-sig below. It contains several tables of predictions of RP lap times.

That's brilliant information, thank you for that and I will check out your website :-)

thejazman

Wow, what a difference the wind makes! I went clockwise for a change. Much windier than Tuesday plus some rain. I limped home after 3 laps at 1.25! 8 minutes slower. A long way to go me thinks.....

molteni_man

Good luck with this all Jazman. Cycling really is addictive- the ride is the best bit , but looking at new kit,bikes etc as well as consulting the data all adds to this addiction!
Think beyond September too especially to the next winter when it’s not always possible to get outside with the darker evenings and frost/ ice etc. I used Zwift across this winter for the first time and it has helped me out on the road massively. I’m approaching 54 soon and still continuing to improve. I find the whole looking at times etc very motivational and it’s good to see if you can beat previous times. You won’t beat it every time and don’t put yourself/ others at risk by going flat out - Strava can encourage this!
Best wishes

thejazman

Molteni Man wrote:

Good luck with this all Jazman. Cycling really is addictive- the ride is the best bit , but looking at new kit,bikes etc as well as consulting the data all adds to this addiction!
Think beyond September too especially to the next winter when it’s not always possible to get outside with the darker evenings and frost/ ice etc. I used Zwift across this winter for the first time and it has helped me out on the road massively. I’m approaching 54 soon and still continuing to improve. I find the whole looking at times etc very motivational and it’s good to see if you can beat previous times. You won’t beat it every time and don’t put yourself/ others at risk by going flat out - Strava can encourage this!
Best wishes

Thanks Molteni

First.Aspect

rower63 wrote:

Singleton wrote:

rower63 wrote:

Cube of speed actually, for aero power ... drag force varies with square of speed, and power = force x speed . Climbing power varies one-on-one with speed

I stand corrected. I actually meant to say that drag was related to the square of speed.

Just had a quick look around your website.

There are some clever buggers on here.

Is that a Bengal by the way?

webboo

Thejazman wrote:

SloppySchleckonds wrote:

Buy a Power Meter
Get a Coach
Stick to a Training Plan
Buy a Turbo Trainer
Get Zwift
Buy Faster Wheels

Do your 3 laps of RP at 20 mph

Devoted

Thank you for your suggestions. I will invest in a power meter, in terms of a coach I'm going to join a cycling club in RIchmond as a starting point for that. I'm not sure what turbo-trainers and Zwift are but I will certainly check them out. As for buying faster wheels... that is sooooo on my indulgent list and once I've done 5-laps I'm buying new wheels as a reward! I'm looking at some deep-rimmed Zipp things that look amazing. I'm sure they won't give me that much speed but the saving I make on red wine by cycling more those wheels will pay for themselves in 3 months! Plus they look great too

Buying Zipp wheels when you don’t yet know what a turbo trainer is,might just be getting ahead of your self. It might be better to get them when you can ride 20 mph for a lap or two as they are not much of a benefit at lower speeds.

rower63

First Aspect wrote:

Just had a quick look around your website ... Is that a Bengal by the way?

Haha yes, he's the most charming creature known to exist, and exploits it to the full. Even though he's half the size of one of our other cats, he always gets his way when he can be bothered

kingstongraham

Thejazman wrote:

Currently I'm comfortably doing 3 laps in 1.17 (c.16mph) and I ride solo. I don't smash it but I'm nicely worked out by the end.

How fast can you do it if you don't ride comfortably?

First.Aspect

rower63 wrote:

First Aspect wrote:

Just had a quick look around your website ... Is that a Bengal by the way?

Haha yes, he's the most charming creature known to exist, and exploits it to the full. Even though he's half the size of one of our other cats, he always gets his way when he can be bothered

We have two. They are like endearing Gremlins.

sloppyschleckonds

KingstonGraham wrote:

Thejazman wrote:

Currently I'm comfortably doing 3 laps in 1.17 (c.16mph) and I ride solo. I don't smash it but I'm nicely worked out by the end.

How fast can you do it if you don't ride comfortably?

He's sticking to Z1

kingstonian

I’d not bother with buying anything new for the time being. Just concentrate on getting miles in. Having a Strava account is useful because over time you’ll be able to see how your times on specific segments differ. So for example, my times going up Dark Hill were always pretty much the same and I then tried a completely different approach (upped the cadence by about 10rpm) and I found my times reduced by about 10secs plus I could attack the flat more.

Over time, as you drop weight it should help you on the climbs as you’re lugging less up the gradient, and your times will drop.

Also, give it some beans on the downhills (on an ACW lap that’d be heading towards Robin Hood Gate and also from Richmond Gate to Ham Cross). It is really easy to slacken off a bit but you can really make some good time gains by pushing hard 9n these stretches, plus you find your inner 6 year old and remember how much of a laugh it was as a kid to fly down a hill full pelt !!!

I have a colleague at work who was consistently doing 23 min laps. He was fit enough to be quicker but hadn’t put any thought into how to go about it, so I did half a dozen laps with him one Sat morning and just gave him a few tips - he was grinding away so I suggested he just goes up a cog to spin his legs a little more, push hard on the downhills rather than slackening off, let his legs do the work and try to keep his body still rather than heave his body all over the place (I took a brief video clip and he said he “looked like an excited crab on a bike”) - a few days later he’d dropped around 90 secs from his lap time.

shimanobottombracket

Simon E wrote:

It's early days so there is plenty of scope for improving your average speed

If you only do one kind of riding your improvement will plateau presently so variety is needed. As well as intervals one good way to bring on your fitness is to do longer rides with people who are a bit stronger than you, so that you are hanging on at the end - it's surprising how much longer you can do this than when you're on your own.

On losing weight, I'll repeat these responses to previous questions re. diet:
"Too many carbs, too much sugar, not enough veg."
and
"Move more, eat less, mostly vegetables." - use fresh ingredients your grandparents would've recognised.

Whats the point in being slim or fast if you have to eat loads of vegetables? YUCK! I'm sure every man wants to be the sexiest bloke alive, but not if it meant only attracting other men. I do eat some healthy stuff, but no way am I giving up the other stuff I like such as meat and beer. For me its a balance between being healthy and being alive and not regretting it.

Frank Wilson

ShimanoBottomBracket wrote:

Simon E wrote:

It's early days so there is plenty of scope for improving your average speed

If you only do one kind of riding your improvement will plateau presently so variety is needed. As well as intervals one good way to bring on your fitness is to do longer rides with people who are a bit stronger than you, so that you are hanging on at the end - it's surprising how much longer you can do this than when you're on your own.

On losing weight, I'll repeat these responses to previous questions re. diet:
"Too many carbs, too much sugar, not enough veg."
and
"Move more, eat less, mostly vegetables." - use fresh ingredients your grandparents would've recognised.

Whats the point in being slim or fast if you have to eat loads of vegetables? YUCK! I'm sure every man wants to be the sexiest bloke alive, but not if it meant only attracting other men. I do eat some healthy stuff, but no way am I giving up the other stuff I like such as meat and beer. For me its a balance between being healthy and being alive and not regretting it.

This man speaks sense.

sloppyschleckonds

Frank Wilson wrote:

ShimanoBottomBracket wrote:

Simon E wrote:

It's early days so there is plenty of scope for improving your average speed

If you only do one kind of riding your improvement will plateau presently so variety is needed. As well as intervals one good way to bring on your fitness is to do longer rides with people who are a bit stronger than you, so that you are hanging on at the end - it's surprising how much longer you can do this than when you're on your own.

On losing weight, I'll repeat these responses to previous questions re. diet:
"Too many carbs, too much sugar, not enough veg."
and
"Move more, eat less, mostly vegetables." - use fresh ingredients your grandparents would've recognised.

Whats the point in being slim or fast if you have to eat loads of vegetables? YUCK! I'm sure every man wants to be the sexiest bloke alive, but not if it meant only attracting other men. I do eat some healthy stuff, but no way am I giving up the other stuff I like such as meat and beer. For me its a balance between being healthy and being alive and not regretting it.

This man speaks sense.

It may be sense to you, but it goes against all recent studies on health, diet, obesity and links to chronic illnesses and cancers.

simon_e

Frank Wilson wrote:

ShimanoBottomBracket wrote:

Whats the point in being slim or fast if you have to eat loads of vegetables? YUCK! I'm sure every man wants to be the sexiest bloke alive, but not if it meant only attracting other men. I do eat some healthy stuff, but no way am I giving up the other stuff I like such as meat and beer. For me its a balance between being healthy and being alive and not regretting it.

This man speaks sense.

Correction, he speaks what you want to hear.

No-one said you & SBB have to give anything up and none of us is preventing you from eating as much meat as you like and drinking all the beer you want. If you don't want to be faster / fitter / whatever that's fine, but why comment here? You could pop over to the Cake Stop and talk burgers & fries, booze, pies and fags and so on.

I genuinely like vegetables. I also like cake, beer and other naughty things as well but I understand those things are treats, not an important part of my daily nutrition. Unfortunately advertising, supermarkets, TV programmes et al have convinced us that we should eat 'treat' food all the time. Big platefuls of calorie-dense, tasty, cheap and ever-so-moreish processed gunk that gets us acting like junkies. From breakfast cereals all the way through to puddings we think we deserve it.

But our bodies have not evolved to do that; combined with a sedentary lifestyle it's a recipe for disaster. You are what you eat.

Frank Wilson

Fair do's, none of you wannabe Alberto Contadors are ever going to be more than Strava hopefulls so why not just enjoy your cycling and your life.

pblakeney

SloppySchleckonds wrote:

Frank Wilson wrote:

This man speaks sense.

It may be sense to you, but it goes against all recent studies on health, diet, obesity and links to chronic illnesses and cancers.

Do any of these studies factor in fun, enjoyment and quality of life?
Swapping those for an extra 5 years in a care home doesn’t appeal.

rick_chasey

ShimanoBottomBracket wrote:

Whats the point in being slim or fast if you have to eat loads of vegetables? YUCK! I'm sure every man wants to be the sexiest bloke alive, but not if it meant only attracting other men.

I think you need to spell this one out.

kingstongraham

Frank Wilson wrote:

Fair do's, none of you wannabe Alberto Contadors are ever going to be more than Strava hopefulls so why not just enjoy your cycling and your life.

What characterises a "Strava hopefull"?

sloppyschleckonds

Simon E wrote:

Frank Wilson wrote:

ShimanoBottomBracket wrote:

Whats the point in being slim or fast if you have to eat loads of vegetables? YUCK! I'm sure every man wants to be the sexiest bloke alive, but not if it meant only attracting other men. I do eat some healthy stuff, but no way am I giving up the other stuff I like such as meat and beer. For me its a balance between being healthy and being alive and not regretting it.

This man speaks sense.

Correction, he speaks what you want to hear.

No-one said you & SBB have to give anything up and none of us is preventing you from eating as much meat as you like and drinking all the beer you want. If you don't want to be faster / fitter / whatever that's fine, but why comment here? You could pop over to the Cake Stop and talk burgers & fries, booze, pies and fags and so on.

I genuinely like vegetables. I also like cake, beer and other naughty things as well but I understand those things are treats, not an important part of my daily nutrition. Unfortunately advertising, supermarkets, TV programmes et al have convinced us that we should eat 'treat' food all the time. Big platefuls of calorie-dense, tasty, cheap and ever-so-moreish processed gunk that gets us acting like junkies. From breakfast cereals all the way through to puddings we think we deserve it.

But our bodies have not evolved to do that; combined with a sedentary lifestyle it's a recipe for disaster. You are what you eat.

The food industry has 'normalised' junk processed food and alcohol. Everybody is having great fun eating and drink what they want. Or so they want you to believe.

sloppyschleckonds

Frank Wilson wrote:

Fair do's, none of you wannabe Alberto Contadors are ever going to be more than Strava hopefulls so why not just enjoy your cycling and your life.

Looking after your body has nothing to do with strava or alberto contador wannabes

sloppyschleckonds

PBlakeney wrote:

SloppySchleckonds wrote:

Frank Wilson wrote:

This man speaks sense.

It may be sense to you, but it goes against all recent studies on health, diet, obesity and links to chronic illnesses and cancers.

Do any of these studies factor in fun, enjoyment and quality of life?
Swapping those for an extra 5 years in a care home doesn’t appeal.

A long healthy life means not any years in a care home. Probably.

surrey_commuter

Kingstonian wrote:

I’d not bother with buying anything new for the time being. Just concentrate on getting miles in. Having a Strava account is useful because over time you’ll be able to see how your times on specific segments differ. So for example, my times going up Dark Hill were always pretty much the same and I then tried a completely different approach (upped the cadence by about 10rpm) and I found my times reduced by about 10secs plus I could attack the flat more.

Over time, as you drop weight it should help you on the climbs as you’re lugging less up the gradient, and your times will drop.

Also, give it some beans on the downhills (on an ACW lap that’d be heading towards Robin Hood Gate and also from Richmond Gate to Ham Cross). It is really easy to slacken off a bit but you can really make some good time gains by pushing hard 9n these stretches, plus you find your inner 6 year old and remember how much of a laugh it was as a kid to fly down a hill full pelt !!!

I have a colleague at work who was consistently doing 23 min laps. He was fit enough to be quicker but hadn’t put any thought into how to go about it, so I did half a dozen laps with him one Sat morning and just gave him a few tips - he was grinding away so I suggested he just goes up a cog to spin his legs a little more, push hard on the downhills rather than slackening off, let his legs do the work and try to keep his body still rather than heave his body all over the place (I took a brief video clip and he said he “looked like an excited crab on a bike”) - a few days later he’d dropped around 90 secs from his lap time.

This is the response you should be concentrating on.

I would emphasise anti-clockwise

Strava is your friend in spotting areas for improvement.

Set yourself a target of 1:10 as that should be relatively easy. After that things will get harder.

kingstongraham

And if you find you are putting yourself in danger because you are overtaking cars that are slowing you down between Richmond and Ham - always remind yourself that it doesn't really matter.

alan_sherman

Do not attempt an hour for three laps at a busy time (all weekend, during rush hour and the afternoon school run). Really the park is so much busier than it used to be, and safety needs to come above an arbitrary target. Also be a\ware of the 20mph speed limit. The police have nicked cyclists in the park for breaking it. Also give way to deer, it is their home, not yours.

I'd say do an attempt in the hour before dusk on a Monday evening when it is quiet. Start at the Roehampton Cafe and go anticlockwise. When the wind is light.

manglier

I'd be very careful about trying to AVERAGE 20MPH around Richmond park. The speed LIMIT is 20MPH and the park authorities are pretty keen to uphold it.

SHHH

Plus the (relatively new) speed bumps slow down traffic significantly, making the 20mph target much harder.

kingstongraham

Manglier wrote:

I'd be very careful about trying to AVERAGE 20MPH around Richmond park. The speed LIMIT is 20MPH and the park authorities are pretty keen to uphold it.

Hahaha. Hahahahahaha. Hahaha.

svetty

Frank Wilson wrote:

Fair do's, none of you wannabe Alberto Contadors are ever going to be more than Strava hopefulls so why not just enjoy your cycling and your life.

You won't enjoy your life once you've had your self-inflicted heart attack, stroke, cancer.......

simon_e

PBlakeney wrote:

Do any of these studies factor in fun, enjoyment and quality of life?
Swapping those for an extra 5 years in a care home doesn’t appeal.

Eh?

Perhaps you have missed the many headlines about the strain on the NHS due to the obesity epidemic, type 2 diabetes etc etc...

Quality of life is about so much more than how much junk food you can shovel in your mouth each day.