Paris Roubaix 2018

24

Comments

  • ShutupJens
    ShutupJens Posts: 1,373
    Money on Gilbert and WvA each way. Not a huge Gilbert fan but he's growing on me in his new role at Quickstep
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,398
    ShutupJens wrote:
    Money on Gilbert and WvA each way. Not a huge Gilbert fan but he's growing on me in his new role at Quickstep

    Despite Rick's poo-pooing I think Gilbert will go well. Feel it in my waters :)
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,645
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    ShutupJens wrote:
    Money on Gilbert and WvA each way. Not a huge Gilbert fan but he's growing on me in his new role at Quickstep

    Despite Rick's poo-pooing I think Gilbert will go well. Feel it in my waters :)

    What constitutes well?
    _
  • sherer
    sherer Posts: 2,460
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    UK bookie odds are weird.

    Surely Stybar EW at 12/1 is a no brainer? Unless someone tells me otherwise.
    yeah each way on Stybar looks like a very good shout.

    I'm envious of those that have done the sportive.. would love to do it, but not being a power rider I'm wondering how I would cope with it..
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,398
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    ShutupJens wrote:
    Money on Gilbert and WvA each way. Not a huge Gilbert fan but he's growing on me in his new role at Quickstep

    Despite Rick's poo-pooing I think Gilbert will go well. Feel it in my waters :)

    What constitutes well?

    Depends if the team works for him this week, it seems they might. I'll probably take him for PTP, I think he might win but if not he seems pretty guaranteed to get some decent PTP points (mechanical and crashes notwithstanding).
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,645
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    ShutupJens wrote:
    Money on Gilbert and WvA each way. Not a huge Gilbert fan but he's growing on me in his new role at Quickstep

    Despite Rick's poo-pooing I think Gilbert will go well. Feel it in my waters :)

    What constitutes well?

    Depends if the team works for him this week, it seems they might. I'll probably take him for PTP, I think he might win but if not he seems pretty guaranteed to get some decent PTP points (mechanical and crashes notwithstanding).

    Podium is absolute minimum for "good" ride for someone of his calibre, no?
    _
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,645
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/fr/rouba ... 32?hour=57

    Forecast in Roubaix.

    Warm, little wind. South South West so tailwindish.

    Chance of a shower at 1pm and 3pm.

    but 20 degrees.
    _
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,390
    Looks like the road sweeper has been deployed to clean up some of the sectors. :?
    http://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racing/truck-brought-in-to-clean-mud-off-paris-roubaix-cobbles-ahead-of-sunday-375700
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,645
    Yeah it's a road race after all, not a cross race.

    You want them riding over cobbles, not mud with cobbles underneath.
    _
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,532
    I'm surprised by the number of people that think Gilbert will win. He has only ridden P-R once before which was in 2007.

    It's going to be Sep this year.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,645
    TheBigBean wrote:
    I'm surprised by the number of people that think Gilbert will win. He has only ridden P-R once before which was in 2007.

    It's going to be Sep this year.

    viewtopic.php?f=40002&t=13089111&start=240#p20321483

    keep up ;).

    Won't be Sep. He's destined to be Leif Hoste incarnate.
    _
  • hanshotfirst
    hanshotfirst Posts: 397
    Little help please folks. Out on a date with a lovely lady on Sunday, absolutely not complaining about missing the race but having watched a few previews I'm gone and got myself a little buzzed. We're going to be about town and ducking into the odd bar or cafe so I'm thinking about stopping into a bike cafe showing the race, reckon she won't mind watching the last part of it. She didn't mind the end of Gent Wev and was interested in all that was going on.

    So, if you had to turn up at a cafe in time to see, lets say Darrefour de l'arbre -> end of race, what time would you aim for?
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,532
    Sep's problem is that there are no other riders on his level over the cobbles, and he doesn't have the engine to make it stick after the cobbles on his own.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,645
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Sep's problem is that there are no other riders on his level over the cobbles, and he doesn't have the engine to make it stick after the cobbles on his own.

    AKA, he's alright for 50km but pants for the other 200km.

    They should offer odds on whether the winning move will go on the cobbles or on the road.
    _
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,703
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Sep's problem is that there are no other riders on his level over the cobbles, and he doesn't have the engine to make it stick after the cobbles on his own.

    AKA, he's alright for 50km but pants for the other 200km.

    They should offer odds on whether the winning move will go on the cobbles or on the road.

    Maybe not a winner, but certainly not someone with a Paris-Roubaix record that I would describe as "pants".
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,645
    Terpstra's is better and people never bang on about him.

    FWIW he has to be the top favourite for this.
    _
  • On_What
    On_What Posts: 516
    I've got money on Stybar and WVA. I am surprised with Sagan as a bookies favourite, and can't see Gilbert making anything of it. Lampeart seems to have some form and has credentials in PR. Either way I thoroughly looking forward to watching the full coverage, and reminding myself of the pounding I got when I rode the route ad-hoc with a good friend last August.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,241
    hanshotfirst wrote:
    Little help please folks. Out on a date with a lovely lady on Sunday, absolutely not complaining about missing the race but having watched a few previews I'm gone and got myself a little buzzed. We're going to be about town and ducking into the odd bar or cafe so I'm thinking about stopping into a bike cafe showing the race, reckon she won't mind watching the last part of it. She didn't mind the end of Gent Wev and was interested in all that was going on.

    So, if you had to turn up at a cafe in time to see, lets say Darrefour de l'arbre -> end of race, what time would you aim for?
    Around 3.30 UK time. They hit Cdl'A at 3.40 last year and 3.33 the year before. A little after two o'clock have a comfort break and check on you phone what time they hit Arenberg. Add about 1 hour 45 to that.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • hanshotfirst
    hanshotfirst Posts: 397
    RichN95 wrote:
    Around 3.30 UK time. They hit Cdl'A at 3.40 last year and 3.33 the year before. A little after two o'clock have a comfort break and check on you phone what time they hit Arenberg. Add about 1 hour 45 to that.

    Ideal, thanks Rich :)
  • graeme_s-2
    graeme_s-2 Posts: 3,382
    So we'd expect them to get to Arenberg about 1:45 UK time? According to the live updates on Cycling News it looked to be 1:48 in 2017 and 1:40 in 2016.
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,031
    TheBigBean wrote:
    I'm surprised by the number of people that think Gilbert will win. He has only ridden P-R once before which was in 2007.

    It's going to be Sep this year.

    Depends how the tactics pan out, the money has to be on one of the Quickstep boys and Terpstra may be marked pretty tightly after his performance at Flanders. I'd have thought a Gilbert win would suit Quickstep as a team too - big name rider both he and they will want to justify his salary.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,790
    why not Niki Terpstra again with Gilbert following the wheels behind again. ain't broke why fix?
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,154
    On_What wrote:
    I've got money on Stybar and WVA. I am surprised with Sagan as a bookies favourite, and can't see Gilbert making anything of it. Lampeart seems to have some form and has credentials in PR. Either way I thoroughly looking forward to watching the full coverage, and reminding myself of the pounding I got when I rode the route ad-hoc with a good friend last August.

    Surely a bookies odds just reflect where people are placing their money (other than the original values)? I doubt cycling really makes a dent in their accounts anyway so the early odds are probably set on who they have heard of.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,241
    Pross wrote:
    On_What wrote:
    I've got money on Stybar and WVA. I am surprised with Sagan as a bookies favourite, and can't see Gilbert making anything of it. Lampeart seems to have some form and has credentials in PR. Either way I thoroughly looking forward to watching the full coverage, and reminding myself of the pounding I got when I rode the route ad-hoc with a good friend last August.

    Surely a bookies odds just reflect where people are placing their money (other than the original values)? I doubt cycling really makes a dent in their accounts anyway so the early odds are probably set on who they have heard of.
    Even the original values will be based on data from previous races and who tends to attract the money. For example a Tony McCoy horse would usually be priced shorter than it merited because punters loved McCoy. Sagan is probably similar.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,645
    mididoctors wrote:
    why not Niki Terpstra again with Gilbert following the wheels behind again. ain't broke why fix?

    Thaaank you.
    _
  • dish_dash
    dish_dash Posts: 5,642
    DeVlaeminck wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    I'm surprised by the number of people that think Gilbert will win. He has only ridden P-R once before which was in 2007.

    It's going to be Sep this year.

    Depends how the tactics pan out, the money has to be on one of the Quickstep boys and Terpstra may be marked pretty tightly after his performance at Flanders. I'd have thought a Gilbert win would suit Quickstep as a team too - big name rider both he and they will want to justify his salary.

    Isn't Pip on a low base with large win bonuses? Reckon that's what much of QS are running on given their sponsorship issues.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,645
    dish_dash wrote:
    DeVlaeminck wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    I'm surprised by the number of people that think Gilbert will win. He has only ridden P-R once before which was in 2007.

    It's going to be Sep this year.

    Depends how the tactics pan out, the money has to be on one of the Quickstep boys and Terpstra may be marked pretty tightly after his performance at Flanders. I'd have thought a Gilbert win would suit Quickstep as a team too - big name rider both he and they will want to justify his salary.

    Isn't Pip on a low base with large win bonuses? Reckon that's what much of QS are running on given their sponsorship issues.

    He re-signed on a bigger package IIRC.
    _
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,398
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Yeah it's a road race after all, not a cross race.

    You want them riding over cobbles, not mud with cobbles underneath.

    I rode one of the Cheshire cobbled sections last weekend which was like that (out by Adlington, really nice proper cobbles), part is just a footpath normally and it was thick mud with cobbles underneath. Very slippy and had to walk the first bit because it was so muddy, then my cleats were full of mud and wouldn't clip in... Had planned to go and ride a load this Sunday morning but it's forecast to be wet so I'm not sure how much fun it will be.
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,398
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    ShutupJens wrote:
    Money on Gilbert and WvA each way. Not a huge Gilbert fan but he's growing on me in his new role at Quickstep

    Despite Rick's poo-pooing I think Gilbert will go well. Feel it in my waters :)

    What constitutes well?

    Depends if the team works for him this week, it seems they might. I'll probably take him for PTP, I think he might win but if not he seems pretty guaranteed to get some decent PTP points (mechanical and crashes notwithstanding).

    Podium is absolute minimum for "good" ride for someone of his calibre, no?

    Yes, and he's going well so that makes him a pretty good PTP pick in my book ;)

    I think the winning spot is fairly open, it's tough to call (and the odds seem to back that up with quite a narrow spread, Sagan's inflated position aside). Terpstra might do it but he's won Flanders this year and already has a P-R to his name so will QS be riding for someone else?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,645
    OPQS don't 'ride' for others.

    They have 3-4 good guys who can control it from far out; Boonen was talking on Wednesday about how OPQS like to control it really fast for a long time so it takes an age to get a break, so that the race breaks open much sooner later on, because everyone's already pooped.

    The rest of the guys are there to swarm the front as it gets more and more selective. At that point, they assess the situation and, usually, make the most of their numerical advantage.

    It's not about 'riding for' guys in classics. It's about getting the right guys in the final and having numbers.
    _

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