Better palmares 2: Sagan vs. Kwiatkowski

Richmond Racer 2

M.R.M. wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

M.R.M. wrote:

So prediction time: who will have won more monuments at the end of their career?

Cancellara and Boonen retiring helps Sagan. Valverde eventually retiring helps Kwiatkowski, albeit Nibali being so strong in Lombardia makes it harder since he has a good shot only at LBL whereas Sagan has MSR, RVV and PR.

Kwiatkowski already has 1 MSR....

I am aware. He is hardly a favourite for it every year.

Que?

No_Ta_Doctor

Richmond Racer 2 wrote:

M.R.M. wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

M.R.M. wrote:

So prediction time: who will have won more monuments at the end of their career?

Cancellara and Boonen retiring helps Sagan. Valverde eventually retiring helps Kwiatkowski, albeit Nibali being so strong in Lombardia makes it harder since he has a good shot only at LBL whereas Sagan has MSR, RVV and PR.

Kwiatkowski already has 1 MSR....

I am aware. He is hardly a favourite for it every year.

Que?

Yeah, that seems a bit weird. Though MSR seems to have quite a spread of winners.

m.r.m.

I think with the advent of Gaviria and other sprinters still being there like Sagan, Kristoff, Degenkolb, possibly Cavendish, Demare, Viviani and Boasson Hagen if I'm being very generous, Kwiatkowski could always win in a reduced group like he did or off an attack on the Poggio, but I would see that rather as an outside shot than something that will happen every now and again.

Sagan however should have all the tools to be in contention every single year.

So, I wasn't saying that Kwiatkowski could never win another MSR. Just that I wouldn't expect it year after year compared to some other riders whose specialization is more suited to the course.

ocdupalais

It’s my feeling (which means can’t be arsed to research) that when it’s come down to those 2 at the end of a hard race, Kwiatkowski has got Sagan figured out and has generally won.
The 2 races that stand out that back that up (2 examples count as fact, right?): Strada Bianchi 2014 and MSR 2017.
But when you listen to Kwiatkowski in those situations, you realise that maybe his game plan is to wait to see what Sagan does. Which is the attitude of the smarter boxer (if not most gifted).
Of the MSR ride:
“Sagan was well into his tactical trap and generously dragged the three-rider attack to the finish. Then Kwiatkowski rode the sprint up the Via Roma perfectly, putting out - according to his Strava file - a staggering maximum power of 1220W after more than seven hours of racing (17.9W/Kg).

Those numbers aren't surprising for the Pole, whose characteristics are more like Sagan's than their physiques show.

"As juniors, we were at a very similar level, I had more chances to race against him than any other guy perhaps. I know that Peter is beatable. You just have to believe it," Kwiatkowski said.

"Maybe half the bunch think that he's from another planet, but I know that I'm able to follow him”.
In other words, Sagan has possibly blown his trumpet too early.
Whilst the comparison of these 2 is interesting, what gets forgotten in this long list of examples (ahem) is that the rest of the field is almost incidental (if not blown away).

m.r.m.

I don't disagree. Kwiatkowski is my favourite rider and I think he can beat Sagan in Sprints in future as well. I think this is down to him being a smarter racer than raw power. In MSR 2017 Sagan initiated the decisive attack and solo'd while Kwiatkowski and Alaphilippe split the work to bridge. Even after that Sagan kept pulling as he always does and both the others were able to conserve even more energy while still doing some turns. And despite Sagan expending so much extra energy it was still incredibly close.

In a regular sprint Sagan can beat any sprinter in the world outside and maybe even Kittel. Kwiatkowski can't, so if it ever comes to a bunch sprint like 2015 when Degenkolb won or 2016 when Demare won e.g. he is not winning.

Amstel Gold 2017 Kwiatkowski lost to Gilbert in a sprint, by going too early (like Sagan in MSR). Gilbert is hardly a (sprint) favourite for MSR either, is he?

ocdupalais

M.R.M. wrote:

I don't disagree. Kwiatkowski is my favourite rider and I think he can beat Sagan in Sprints in future as well. I think this is down to him being a smarter racer than raw power. In MSR 2017 Sagan initiated the decisive attack and solo'd while Kwiatkowski and Alaphilippe split the work to bridge. Even after that Sagan kept pulling as he always does and both the others were able to conserve even more energy while still doing some turns. And despite Sagan expending so much extra energy it was still incredibly close.

In a regular sprint Sagan can beat any sprinter in the world outside and maybe even Kittel. Kwiatkowski can't, so if it ever comes to a bunch sprint like 2015 when Degenkolb won or 2016 when Demare won e.g. he is not winning.

Amstel Gold 2017 Kwiatkowski lost to Gilbert in a sprint, by going too early (like Sagan in MSR). Gilbert is hardly a (sprint) favourite for MSR either, is he?

That’s what I’m saying: if Kwiatkowski is in line for victory, it will have been brutal up until that point. When Sagan surged forward in Strada Bianchi 2014 with 23km to go, everyone looked dead in the water (and we’re talking Valverde and Cancellara also in the group, to mention 2 - and therefore scientifically watertight) until Kwiatkowski cruised up like it weren’t no thing. I couldn’t help myself but to find that clip again - as soon as Kwiatkowski catches him and comes through, he’s looking at Sagan to do his bit...
I doubt he’s realistically expecting to be victorious in a cagey run in of teams lining up with their sprint trains...

With Kwiatkowski’s climbing performance in the Tour last year, I think he’ll be moving away from what he’s done in the past to GC contender... Paris-Nice/ T-A beware!

m.r.m.

I agree. This is all in the context of which rider will win more monuments in future.

I'd say Sagan has 3 favourable races (MSR, RVV, PR). Kwiatkowski has 2 (LBL & Lombardia). So in that context it follows that Sagan has 3 good opportunities per year compared to 2 for Kwiatkowski (2.5 if you want to give him "kind of a favourite for the win" status on MSR).

I think at the end of their careers Sagan will have won more monuments. I think Kwiatkowski can win a non Tour GT.

philbar72

Kwiatko could win all of the monuments I'd say. he's got a canny finish, has a better race awareness than Sagan, but doesn't have his top end on a pure sprint. if however they'd been doing turns, he often has a way of surprising others (traditionally its a case that he leaves 2/3 bike lengths then uses his fast jump to get a slingshot and holds on. the cassic example was the finish of MSR, but where it went wrong was the finish of Amstel gold last year, electrifying jump, then headwind and Gilbert got him with 5 m to go, as he'd popped.

the only doubt is how good is he on the rougher cobbles of Roubaix?