Tour predictions thread, 2017 edition

rick_chasey

Overall victory:

Points victory:

Breakaway points victory (see what I did there?):

Best overall under 25:

Team classification:

Rider with most number of stage wins:

Team with most number of stage wins:

Most unlikely stage winner:

Most attacking rider:

Biggest disappointment:

First of the following riders to DNS or DNF:
Chris Froome
Richie Porte
Nairo Quintana
Alberto Contador
Jakob Fuglsang
Alejandro Valverde
Romain Bardet
Fabio Aru

RichN95.

Overall: Froome (but I'll pick Porte for PTP)
Green: Sagan
KOM: Bardet
White: Meintjes if eligible, Latour if not
Team: Movistar (because they care about it)
Most stages: Kittel
Most stages: Quick Step
Unlikely stage winner: Swift
In breaks: De Gendt
Disappointment: Contador (not to me but to fans that still believe)
First DNF: Quintana

salsiccia1

Overall: Froome
Green: Sagan
KOM: Pinot
White: Simon Yates
Team: Movistar
Most stages: Kittel
Most stages: Quick Step
Unlikely stage winner: Frederik Backaert
In breaks: someone from Fortuneo-Vital Concept
Disappointment: BMC
First DNF: Aru

rick_chasey

RichN95 wrote:

Overall: Froome (but I'll pick Porte for PTP)

Prediction hedge.

Noted :P.

rick_chasey

Salsiccia1 wrote:

Unlikely stage winner: Bouhanni

I will post mine soon, but does the forum agree this person is an unlikely winner?

kingstongraham

Rick Chasey wrote:

Salsiccia1 wrote:

Unlikely stage winner: Bouhanni

I will post mine soon, but does the forum agree this person is an unlikely winner?

Five previous GT stage wins, and past Giro points jersey winner? I think there might be a slightly less predictable stage winner out there.

salsiccia1

KingstonGraham wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Salsiccia1 wrote:

Unlikely stage winner: Bouhanni

I will post mine soon, but does the forum agree this person is an unlikely winner?

Five previous GT stage wins, and past Giro points jersey winner? I think there might be a slightly less predictable stage winner out there.

Irony is hard to reproduce on t'interweb

Just given that there's always shenanigans surrounding him I'd be surprised to see him win a stage

I'll replace him with Frederik Backaert out of that there Wanty Group-Gobert

RichN95.

Rick Chasey wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

Overall: Froome (but I'll pick Porte for PTP)

Prediction hedge.

Noted :P.

My PTP picks are like some sort of ancient curse on riders - so I never pick the person I want to win.

kingstongraham

Salsiccia1 wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Salsiccia1 wrote:

Unlikely stage winner: Bouhanni

I will post mine soon, but does the forum agree this person is an unlikely winner?

Five previous GT stage wins, and past Giro points jersey winner? I think there might be a slightly less predictable stage winner out there.

Irony is hard to reproduce on t'interweb

Just given that there's always shenanigans surrounding him I'd be surprised to see him win a stage

I'll replace him with Frederik Backaert out of that there Wanty Group-Gobert

Jokes are all very well in their place, but this is serious business.

Anyway, he has to get to the start line yet.

milton50

Overall: Froome (Porte will find some way not to win)
Points: Sagan
Breakaway: Hopefully De Ghendt
Best Overall Under 25: Buchmann
Best Team: Movistar
Most Individual Stage Wins: Greipel
Most Team Wins: Lotto
Most Unlikely Stage Winner: No idea
Most Attacking Rider: Pantano
Biggest Disappointment: Depends on what your expectations are but I'll go for Quintana

Tashman

Overall victory: Froome
Points victory: Sagan
KOM: Froome
Best overall under 25: Yates
Team classification: Movistar
Rider with most number of stage wins: Kittel
Team with most number of stage wins: Quick-Step
Most unlikely stage winner: Cavendish
Most attacking rider: Valverde
Biggest disappointment: Contador
First of the following riders to DNS or DNF: Romain Bardet

rick_chasey

Overall victory: Froome

Points victory: Sagan

Breakaway points victory (see what I did there?): Rafał Majka

Best overall under 25: Yates

Team classification: Trek

Rider with most number of stage wins: Kittel

Team with most number of stage wins: QS

Most unlikely stage winner: Benoot

Most attacking rider: TdG

Biggest disappointment: The course.

First of the following riders to DNS or DNF:
Porte :O :O :O

RichN95.

Rick Chasey wrote:

Biggest disappointment: The course.

Barring some earthquake or landslide, the course will be exactly what it says it is. The time for disappointment was October.

rick_chasey

RichN95 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Biggest disappointment: The course.

Barring some earthquake or landslide, the course will be exactly what it says it is. The time for disappointment was October.

Yeah, that's fair.

Although you don't know quite how disappointing the course will be until you've seen the racing on it.

But if you want a rider from me, I'll offer up Porte as a hedge :P.

bobmcstuff

Overall: Froome
Green: Sagan
KOM: Pinot
White: Meintjes
Team: Movistar
Most stages: Kittel
Most stages: Quick Step
Unlikely stage winner: Too hard. Everyone I pick is either so unlikely as to be increbil or a viable outsider. So Tsgabu Grmay just because he has a cool name.
In breaks: De Gendt
Disappointment: Quintana
First DNF: Aru

I will get the PTP thread up soon, I thought one week in advance of the Grand Depart would be appropriate?

bobmcstuff

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/cycling/t ... ids=276495

Who let Eddie Dunbar's dad at Paddypower...

He seems like he's on to become a very good rider but 20/1 to win the tour in his career??

okgo

Its paddy power isn't it. Look after their own and all that. But they're stupid odds.

tailwindhome

Rick Chasey wrote:

Breakaway points victory (see what I did there?):

Took a while but I got there eventually :oops:

kleinstroker

Overall victory: Froome

Green: Sagan

KOM: Pantano

Breakaway: Gilbert

Best overall under 25: Pierre Latour

Team classification: Movistar

Rider with most number of stage wins: Cav

Team with most number of stage wins: DD

Most unlikely stage winner: Dan Martin

Most attacking rider: Pantano

Biggest disappointment: Quintana

First of the following riders to DNS or DNF:

Nairo Quintana

sherer

Overall: Froome
Green: Sagan
KOM: Porte, although hoping to see Thomas Voeckler in it for a few days
White: No idea
Team: Movistar
Most stages: Sagan
Most stages: QuickStep
Unlikely stage winner: Anyone from Wanty
In breaks: Thomas Voeckler
Disappointment: Kirby and has rubbish commentating
First DNF: Jakob Fuglsang

mamil314

Overall: Porte
Disappointment: Dumoulin
DNF: Froome

RichN95.

mamil314 wrote:

Disappointment: Dumoulin

If you're expecting him to be at the Tour, then he will certainly disappoint.

mamil314

Probably, because i hold him in high regard, I am disappointed. Froome is attempting 2 in a row for a few years now, isn't he.

wombly_knees

Overall victory: Froome

Points victory: Sagan

Best overall under 25: Meintjes

Team classification: movistar

Rider with most number of stage wins: Kittel

Team with most number of stage wins: quickstep

Most unlikely stage winner: Tsgabu Grmay

Most attacking rider: Sagan

Biggest disappointment: The route. Apart from that, Porte and Cannondale

First of the following riders to DNS or DNF: Contador

timoid.

Overall victory: Froome

Points victory: Sagan

KOM: Quintana

Best overall under 25: Yates

Team classification: Movistar

Rider with most number of stage wins: Kittel

Team with most number of stage wins: QS

Most unlikely stage winner: Dunbar

Most attacking rider: Sagan

Biggest disappointment: Porte

First of the following riders to DNS or DNF:
Alberto Contador

tailwindhome

Biggest disappointment: Dan Martin


Don't get me wrong, I like him, I hope he does well, but I fear he's going to 'waste' these prime years chasing GC Top Tens when he is more than capable of racking up some high quality mountain/hilly stages.

jimmythecuckoo

Overall victory: Richie Porte

Points victory: Peter Sagan

Breakaway points victory (see what I did there?): Thomas de Gendt

Best overall under 25: Romain Bardet

Team classification: Movistar

Rider with most number of stage wins: Marcel Kittel

Team with most number of stage wins: Quick Step Floors

Most unlikely stage winner: Albert Timmer

Most attacking rider: Thomas Voeckler

Biggest disappointment: Chris Froomes defence

First of the following riders to DNS or DNF: Fabio Aru

josame

Overall: Contador
Points: Sagan
Breakaway: Meintjes
Best Overall Under 25: Meintjes
Best Team: Sky
Most Individual Stage Wins: Greipel
Most Team Wins: Lotto
Most Unlikely Stage Winner: ?
Most Attacking Rider: Pantano
Biggest Disappointment: Froome
First of the following riders to DNS or DNF: Aru

thestrand

Overall victory: Quintana
Points victory: Sagan
Breakaway points victory (see what I did there?): Landa
Best overall under 25: Meintjes
Team classification: Movistar
Rider with most number of stage wins: Sagan
Team with most number of stage wins: Lotto NL-Jumbo
Most unlikely stage winner: Keukeleire
Most attacking rider: De Gendt
Biggest disappointment: Porte and his BMC teammates
First of the following riders to DNS or DNF: Contador

shockedsoshocked

Most unlikely stage winner: Betancur.

yourpaceormine

Overall victory: Froome
Points victory: Sagan
Breakaway: Landa
Best overall under 25: Meintjes
Team classification: Movistar
Rider with most number of stage wins: Sagan
Team with most number of stage wins: Dimension Data
Most unlikely stage winner: plucky little TV
Most attacking rider: De Gendt
Biggest disappointment: Porte and his BMC teammates
First of the following riders to DNS or DNF: Contador

I see the overall as a pretty close run thing, potentially going several ways; individual experience and team experience being the deciding factor for a Sky victory. I also see Cav taking a couple of stages once he has found his mojo (not remembering which are the sprinters' stages I'd say towards the end of week 2 early week 3). Steve C will of course take a stage too. France will declare a national holiday when PLTV wins a stage, he will be awrded the Legion d'Honneur. CK will be admitted to hospital having burst several blood vessels getting over excited in the final km of several stages in a row. Bertie will have a shocker on a pissy wet stage, take an innocuous tumble then claim to have broken several bones, retire from the race and hang up his bibshorts within the month. Returning as a DS to a small team with big ambitions (and an overdrawn account at the Bank of Sporting Morals) in the New Year. Matt Rendell will doorstep a former French rider (with questionable victories) who has got all mouthy about doping (think Jaja a couple of years back). Sir Boardman will be knighted for services to podcasting. Rendell will be overlooked for a gong due to the return of scouse Nairo.