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Tour predictions thread, 2017 edition

rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 57,281 Lives Here
edited July 2017 in Pro race
Overall victory:

Points victory:

Breakaway points victory (see what I did there?):

Best overall under 25:

Team classification:

Rider with most number of stage wins:

Team with most number of stage wins:

Most unlikely stage winner:

Most attacking rider:

Biggest disappointment:

First of the following riders to DNS or DNF:
Chris Froome
Richie Porte
Nairo Quintana
Alberto Contador
Jakob Fuglsang
Alejandro Valverde
Romain Bardet
Fabio Aru
«13

Posts

  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 25,479
    Overall: Froome (but I'll pick Porte for PTP)
    Green: Sagan
    KOM: Bardet
    White: Meintjes if eligible, Latour if not
    Team: Movistar (because they care about it)
    Most stages: Kittel
    Most stages: Quick Step
    Unlikely stage winner: Swift
    In breaks: De Gendt
    Disappointment: Contador (not to me but to fans that still believe)
    First DNF: Quintana
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • salsiccia1salsiccia1 Posts: 3,715
    edited June 2017
    Overall: Froome
    Green: Sagan
    KOM: Pinot
    White: Simon Yates
    Team: Movistar
    Most stages: Kittel
    Most stages: Quick Step
    Unlikely stage winner: Frederik Backaert
    In breaks: someone from Fortuneo-Vital Concept
    Disappointment: BMC
    First DNF: Aru
    It's only a bit of sport, Mun. Relax and enjoy the racing.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 57,281 Lives Here
    RichN95 wrote:
    Overall: Froome (but I'll pick Porte for PTP)

    Prediction hedge.

    Noted :P.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 57,281 Lives Here
    Salsiccia1 wrote:
    Unlikely stage winner: Bouhanni

    I will post mine soon, but does the forum agree this person is an unlikely winner?
  • kingstongrahamkingstongraham Posts: 17,773
    Salsiccia1 wrote:
    Unlikely stage winner: Bouhanni

    I will post mine soon, but does the forum agree this person is an unlikely winner?

    Five previous GT stage wins, and past Giro points jersey winner? I think there might be a slightly less predictable stage winner out there.
  • salsiccia1salsiccia1 Posts: 3,715
    Salsiccia1 wrote:
    Unlikely stage winner: Bouhanni

    I will post mine soon, but does the forum agree this person is an unlikely winner?

    Five previous GT stage wins, and past Giro points jersey winner? I think there might be a slightly less predictable stage winner out there.

    Irony is hard to reproduce on t'interweb :wink:

    Just given that there's always shenanigans surrounding him I'd be surprised to see him win a stage :D

    I'll replace him with Frederik Backaert out of that there Wanty Group-Gobert
    It's only a bit of sport, Mun. Relax and enjoy the racing.
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 25,479
    RichN95 wrote:
    Overall: Froome (but I'll pick Porte for PTP)

    Prediction hedge.

    Noted :P.
    My PTP picks are like some sort of ancient curse on riders - so I never pick the person I want to win.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • kingstongrahamkingstongraham Posts: 17,773
    Salsiccia1 wrote:
    Salsiccia1 wrote:
    Unlikely stage winner: Bouhanni

    I will post mine soon, but does the forum agree this person is an unlikely winner?

    Five previous GT stage wins, and past Giro points jersey winner? I think there might be a slightly less predictable stage winner out there.

    Irony is hard to reproduce on t'interweb :wink:

    Just given that there's always shenanigans surrounding him I'd be surprised to see him win a stage :D

    I'll replace him with Frederik Backaert out of that there Wanty Group-Gobert

    Jokes are all very well in their place, but this is serious business.

    Anyway, he has to get to the start line yet.
  • milton50milton50 Posts: 3,856
    Overall: Froome (Porte will find some way not to win)
    Points: Sagan
    Breakaway: Hopefully De Ghendt
    Best Overall Under 25: Buchmann
    Best Team: Movistar
    Most Individual Stage Wins: Greipel
    Most Team Wins: Lotto
    Most Unlikely Stage Winner: No idea
    Most Attacking Rider: Pantano
    Biggest Disappointment: Depends on what your expectations are but I'll go for Quintana
  • TashmanTashman Posts: 2,826
    Overall victory: Froome
    Points victory: Sagan
    KOM: Froome
    Best overall under 25: Yates
    Team classification: Movistar
    Rider with most number of stage wins: Kittel
    Team with most number of stage wins: Quick-Step
    Most unlikely stage winner: Cavendish
    Most attacking rider: Valverde
    Biggest disappointment: Contador
    First of the following riders to DNS or DNF: Romain Bardet
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 57,281 Lives Here
    Overall victory: Froome

    Points victory: Sagan

    Breakaway points victory (see what I did there?): Rafał Majka

    Best overall under 25: Yates

    Team classification: Trek

    Rider with most number of stage wins: Kittel

    Team with most number of stage wins: QS

    Most unlikely stage winner: Benoot

    Most attacking rider: TdG

    Biggest disappointment: The course.

    First of the following riders to DNS or DNF:
    Porte :O :O :O
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 25,479
    Biggest disappointment: The course.
    Barring some earthquake or landslide, the course will be exactly what it says it is. The time for disappointment was October.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 57,281 Lives Here
    RichN95 wrote:
    Biggest disappointment: The course.
    Barring some earthquake or landslide, the course will be exactly what it says it is. The time for disappointment was October.

    Yeah, that's fair.

    Although you don't know quite how disappointing the course will be until you've seen the racing on it.

    But if you want a rider from me, I'll offer up Porte as a hedge :P.
  • bobmcstuffbobmcstuff Posts: 10,219
    Overall: Froome
    Green: Sagan
    KOM: Pinot
    White: Meintjes
    Team: Movistar
    Most stages: Kittel
    Most stages: Quick Step
    Unlikely stage winner: Too hard. Everyone I pick is either so unlikely as to be increbil or a viable outsider. So Tsgabu Grmay just because he has a cool name.
    In breaks: De Gendt
    Disappointment: Quintana
    First DNF: Aru

    I will get the PTP thread up soon, I thought one week in advance of the Grand Depart would be appropriate?
  • bobmcstuffbobmcstuff Posts: 10,219
    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/cycling/t ... ids=276495

    Who let Eddie Dunbar's dad at Paddypower...

    He seems like he's on to become a very good rider but 20/1 to win the tour in his career??
  • okgookgo Posts: 4,368
    edited June 2017
    Its paddy power isn't it. Look after their own and all that. But they're stupid odds.
    Blog on my first and now second season of proper riding/racing - www.firstseasonracing.com
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 16,666
    Breakaway points victory (see what I did there?):

    Took a while but I got there eventually :oops:
    Believe that a farther shore
    Is reachable from here.
    Believe in miracles
    And cures and healing wells
  • kleinstrokerkleinstroker Posts: 2,133
    edited June 2017
    Overall victory: Froome

    Green: Sagan

    KOM: Pantano

    Breakaway: Gilbert

    Best overall under 25: Pierre Latour

    Team classification: Movistar

    Rider with most number of stage wins: Cav

    Team with most number of stage wins: DD

    Most unlikely stage winner: Dan Martin

    Most attacking rider: Pantano

    Biggest disappointment: Quintana

    First of the following riders to DNS or DNF:

    Nairo Quintana
  • sherersherer Posts: 2,450
    Overall: Froome
    Green: Sagan
    KOM: Porte, although hoping to see Thomas Voeckler in it for a few days
    White: No idea
    Team: Movistar
    Most stages: Sagan
    Most stages: QuickStep
    Unlikely stage winner: Anyone from Wanty
    In breaks: Thomas Voeckler
    Disappointment: Kirby and has rubbish commentating
    First DNF: Jakob Fuglsang
  • mamil314mamil314 Posts: 1,103
    Overall: Porte
    Disappointment: Dumoulin
    DNF: Froome
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 25,479
    mamil314 wrote:
    Disappointment: Dumoulin
    If you're expecting him to be at the Tour, then he will certainly disappoint.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • mamil314mamil314 Posts: 1,103
    Probably, because i hold him in high regard, I am disappointed. Froome is attempting 2 in a row for a few years now, isn't he.
  • wombly_kneeswombly_knees Posts: 657
    Overall victory: Froome

    Points victory: Sagan

    Best overall under 25: Meintjes

    Team classification: movistar

    Rider with most number of stage wins: Kittel

    Team with most number of stage wins: quickstep

    Most unlikely stage winner: Tsgabu Grmay

    Most attacking rider: Sagan

    Biggest disappointment: The route. Apart from that, Porte and Cannondale

    First of the following riders to DNS or DNF: Contador
  • timoid.timoid. Posts: 3,133
    Overall victory: Froome

    Points victory: Sagan

    KOM: Quintana

    Best overall under 25: Yates

    Team classification: Movistar

    Rider with most number of stage wins: Kittel

    Team with most number of stage wins: QS

    Most unlikely stage winner: Dunbar

    Most attacking rider: Sagan

    Biggest disappointment: Porte

    First of the following riders to DNS or DNF:
    Alberto Contador
    It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 16,666
    Biggest disappointment: Dan Martin


    Don't get me wrong, I like him, I hope he does well, but I fear he's going to 'waste' these prime years chasing GC Top Tens when he is more than capable of racking up some high quality mountain/hilly stages.
    Believe that a farther shore
    Is reachable from here.
    Believe in miracles
    And cures and healing wells
  • jimmythecuckoojimmythecuckoo Posts: 4,558
    Overall victory: Richie Porte

    Points victory: Peter Sagan

    Breakaway points victory (see what I did there?): Thomas de Gendt

    Best overall under 25: Romain Bardet

    Team classification: Movistar

    Rider with most number of stage wins: Marcel Kittel

    Team with most number of stage wins: Quick Step Floors

    Most unlikely stage winner: Albert Timmer

    Most attacking rider: Thomas Voeckler

    Biggest disappointment: Chris Froomes defence

    First of the following riders to DNS or DNF: Fabio Aru
  • josamejosame Posts: 1,057
    Overall: Contador
    Points: Sagan
    Breakaway: Meintjes
    Best Overall Under 25: Meintjes
    Best Team: Sky
    Most Individual Stage Wins: Greipel
    Most Team Wins: Lotto
    Most Unlikely Stage Winner: ?
    Most Attacking Rider: Pantano
    Biggest Disappointment: Froome
    First of the following riders to DNS or DNF: Aru
    'Do not compare your bike to others, for always there will be greater and lesser bikes'
  • thestrandthestrand Posts: 112
    Overall victory: Quintana
    Points victory: Sagan
    Breakaway points victory (see what I did there?): Landa
    Best overall under 25: Meintjes
    Team classification: Movistar
    Rider with most number of stage wins: Sagan
    Team with most number of stage wins: Lotto NL-Jumbo
    Most unlikely stage winner: Keukeleire
    Most attacking rider: De Gendt
    Biggest disappointment: Porte and his BMC teammates
    First of the following riders to DNS or DNF: Contador
    Felt F95 2012

    Hello to Jason Isaacs
  • Most unlikely stage winner: Betancur.
    "A cyclist has nothing to lose but his chain"

    PTP Runner Up 2015
  • yourpaceormineyourpaceormine Posts: 1,245
    Overall victory: Froome
    Points victory: Sagan
    Breakaway: Landa
    Best overall under 25: Meintjes
    Team classification: Movistar
    Rider with most number of stage wins: Sagan
    Team with most number of stage wins: Dimension Data
    Most unlikely stage winner: plucky little TV
    Most attacking rider: De Gendt
    Biggest disappointment: Porte and his BMC teammates
    First of the following riders to DNS or DNF: Contador

    I see the overall as a pretty close run thing, potentially going several ways; individual experience and team experience being the deciding factor for a Sky victory. I also see Cav taking a couple of stages once he has found his mojo (not remembering which are the sprinters' stages I'd say towards the end of week 2 early week 3). Steve C will of course take a stage too. France will declare a national holiday when PLTV wins a stage, he will be awrded the Legion d'Honneur. CK will be admitted to hospital having burst several blood vessels getting over excited in the final km of several stages in a row. Bertie will have a shocker on a pissy wet stage, take an innocuous tumble then claim to have broken several bones, retire from the race and hang up his bibshorts within the month. Returning as a DS to a small team with big ambitions (and an overdrawn account at the Bank of Sporting Morals) in the New Year. Matt Rendell will doorstep a former French rider (with questionable victories) who has got all mouthy about doping (think Jaja a couple of years back). Sir Boardman will be knighted for services to podcasting. Rendell will be overlooked for a gong due to the return of scouse Nairo.
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