UK Economy 2017/18 - Flatline or Recession?

Stevo_666

The forecast is still for growth, albeit slightly reduced from the last forecast.

coopster_the_1st

Rick Chasey wrote:

Bahaha Brexiter worrying about the eoconomy.

So voting to remain would have meant we never have another recession?

mr_goo

Rick Chasey wrote:

Bahaha Brexiter worrying about the eoconomy.

I'm not going to rake over old ground Rick. But I think that Cameron in a way was quite canny with the Brexit referendum. The UK has cyclic recessions about every 10 years and we are heading into that period now. With the referendum, whichever way it went Cameron and the remainers had their backsides covered.
Leave and enter recession = The Brexiteers fault.
Remain and enter recession = It's a European recession.

surrey_commuter

Mr Goo wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Bahaha Brexiter worrying about the eoconomy.

I'm not going to rake over old ground Rick. But I think that Cameron in a way was quite canny with the Brexit referendum. The UK has cyclic recessions about every 10 years and we are heading into that period now. With the referendum, whichever way it went Cameron and the remainers had their backsides covered.
Leave and enter recession = The Brexiteers fault.
Remain and enter recession = It's a European recession.

Saying we have a recession every ten years is too simplistic and takes no account of the profile of the last recession.

Construction is probably being hit by Govt policies and Brexit. The wider economy is being slowed by Brexit related inflation and confidence issues.

Your comments on the Brexit thread suggest you place sovereignty above economics. To paraphrase Hammond you voted to make yourself poorer so at least have the decency not to moan about it.

surrey_commuter

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Bahaha Brexiter worrying about the eoconomy.

So voting to remain would have meant we never have another recession?

We are not in recession. The rate of growth has slowed. Farage himself told you this would happen and that you would be worse off in the short-term which he estimated to be 2030.

Have you figured out why you can't nominate a pro-Brexit economic expert to balance up news reports?

If it helps it is the same reason Gove denounced all experts rather than wheeling his own out

veronese68

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Bahaha Brexiter worrying about the eoconomy.

So voting to remain would have meant we never have another recession?

No, but even the leave side concede that we will be worse off for a while. I believe you admitted it yourself. If we go into a recession it will be made worse by leaving, you voted for it. We haven't left yet so the effect is lessened for now.
Nobody knows if we will be better off long term. So please remember you voted to make the country poorer short term and for an unknown long term.

BelgianBeerGeek

I am looking at fields now. My local council will build 6500 housing units on it (sorry, much needed family homes). This will come with three schools, retail and work stuff, new roads, motorway junctions etc.
This will happen, as the council say there is no alternative and by CPO if necessary.
That's just Fareham, so cheer up Mr Goo, there will be plenty of work for you yet.

Pross

Mr Goo wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

As an architect in a London practice specialising in high spec domestic work (so not an accurate reflection of the country as a whole, but another point on the graph nonetheless), I am currently rushed off my feet. We are interviewing at the moment and candidates seem to have some fairly bullish ideas on what they should be paid.

Doing any high end res' in Devon?

I think that a downturn in construction will take till back end of 2018 before it bites.

As for job losses in the last recession. The numbers that lost their positions is incredible, yet very little is publicised. The manufacturer I was working for in 2008 laid off over 1000 in one go. Yet it never got a mention on the news.

Depends on your definition of high end I guess but I've worked on several developments in Devon recently (large, detached bespoke homes selling at circa £750k). The problem in the provinces is that those looking at that sort of range are either retiring to the country or city types looking for a second home. There's not the high earning economy to attract high end appartments or family homes. Holiday home developments are rare as the people buying them want sea views and sites are therefore very limited.

Pross

BelgianBeerGeek wrote:

I am looking at fields now. My local council will build 6500 housing units on it (sorry, much needed family homes). This will come with three schools, retail and work stuff, new roads, motorway junctions etc.
This will happen, as the council say there is no alternative and by CPO if necessary.
That's just Fareham, so cheer up Mr Goo, there will be plenty of work for you yet.

I was working on one around there at my previous company but 'only' 2500 homes between Fareham and Stubbington. Sorry!

rjsterry

Mr Goo wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

As an architect in a London practice specialising in high spec domestic work (so not an accurate reflection of the country as a whole, but another point on the graph nonetheless), I am currently rushed off my feet. We are interviewing at the moment and candidates seem to have some fairly bullish ideas on what they should be paid.

Doing any high end res' in Devon?

I think that a downturn in construction will take till back end of 2018 before it bites.

As for job losses in the last recession. The numbers that lost their positions is incredible, yet very little is publicised. The manufacturer I was working for in 2008 laid off over 1000 in one go. Yet it never got a mention on the news.

Would love to if the opportunity arose. 98% of our work is within the M25, so something further afield makes a nice change.

Agree on the delayed reaction of the construction industry. In the last recession, we were able to hoover up enough work to last us another year after the enquiries stopped before things started getting really tight. The contractors were 6-9 months behind that.

coopster_the_1st

Veronese68 wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Bahaha Brexiter worrying about the eoconomy.

So voting to remain would have meant we never have another recession?

No, but even the leave side concede that we will be worse off for a while. I believe you admitted it yourself. If we go into a recession it will be made worse by leaving, you voted for it. We haven't left yet so the effect is lessened for now.
Nobody knows if we will be better off long term. So please remember you voted to make the country poorer short term and for an unknown long term.

Brexit is disruptive so there was a risk it would cause economic issues. With the sheer number of politicised economic experts (IMF, Mark Carney, OECD, etc) talking down the UK economy upon a Brexit vote it was going to be very hard for it not to have a negative effect. This was obvious.

Since the vote even I have been surprised at the strength of the UK economy in the face of all this negativity via Project Fear. Funnily enough, all of these experts have revised upwards their UK forecasts with no shame at all or admittance that they were wrong.

And don't reply with the usual cr@p that we have not left yet. Markets are forward looking and after the initial shock of markets pricing Brexit wrong, they know it is going happen and they are not forecasting or pricing in negativity from Brexit.

I voted and accepted there would be a short term hit on the economy upon a leave vote. This has not happened and something I am happy to be wrong about. None of those who voted remain are happy about this. Why is that? It is because it proves them to be wrong?

surrey_commuter

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Veronese68 wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Bahaha Brexiter worrying about the eoconomy.

So voting to remain would have meant we never have another recession?

No, but even the leave side concede that we will be worse off for a while. I believe you admitted it yourself. If we go into a recession it will be made worse by leaving, you voted for it. We haven't left yet so the effect is lessened for now.
Nobody knows if we will be better off long term. So please remember you voted to make the country poorer short term and for an unknown long term.

Brexit is disruptive so there was a risk it would cause economic issues. With the sheer number of politicised economic experts (IMF, Mark Carney, OECD, etc) talking down the UK economy upon a Brexit vote it was going to be very hard for it not to have a negative effect. This was obvious.

Since the vote even I have been surprised at the strength of the UK economy in the face of all this negativity via Project Fear. Funnily enough, all of these experts have revised upwards their UK forecasts with no shame at all or admittance that they were wrong.

And don't reply with the usual cr@p that we have not left yet. Markets are forward looking and after the initial shock of markets pricing Brexit wrong, they know it is going happen and they are not forecasting or pricing in negativity from Brexit.

I voted and accepted there would be a short term hit on the economy upon a leave vote. This has not happened and something I am happy to be wrong about. None of those who voted remain are happy about this. Why is that? It is because it proves them to be wrong?

So to summarise - a coalition of international NGOs made a concerted attempt to sabotage the UK economy by pessimistic forecasting. I wonder why we bother with sanctions against rogue states when we could submit lowervforecastsi

The notion that we have not left yet is just plain wrong.

You think the economy looks as good now as if Brexit had never happened?

You think the FX markets have not priced in negativity about Brexit.

You value a vague notion of sovereignty higher than slowing the economy for at least 14 years.

coopster_the_1st

Surrey Commuter wrote:

You value a vague notion of sovereignty higher than slowing the economy for at least 14 years.

George Osborne's Project Fear bullsh1t!

At least we'll get an additional £350m a week to spend on the NHS

surrey_commuter

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

You value a vague notion of sovereignty higher than slowing the economy for at least 14 years.

George Osborne's Project Fear bullsh1t!

At least we'll get an additional £350m a week to spend on the NHS

Too long in Wetherspoons?

That is the reckoning of your leader - Farage

Are you saying that Farage was a part of Project Fear?

rick_chasey

Coopster the 1st wrote:

At least we'll get an additional £350m a week to spend on the NHS

BelgianBeerGeek

Pross wrote:

BelgianBeerGeek wrote:

I am looking at fields now. My local council will build 6500 housing units on it (sorry, much needed family homes). This will come with three schools, retail and work stuff, new roads, motorway junctions etc.
This will happen, as the council say there is no alternative and by CPO if necessary.
That's just Fareham, so cheer up Mr Goo, there will be plenty of work for you yet.

I was working on one around there at my previous company but 'only' 2500 homes between Fareham and Stubbington. Sorry!

That too. The old "Solent City" project creeping forward.

rolf_f

Mr Goo wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Bahaha Brexiter worrying about the eoconomy.

I'm not going to rake over old ground Rick. But I think that Cameron in a way was quite canny with the Brexit referendum. The UK has cyclic recessions about every 10 years and we are heading into that period now. With the referendum, whichever way it went Cameron and the remainers had their backsides covered.
Leave and enter recession = The Brexiteers fault.
Remain and enter recession = It's a European recession.

You think that, from the remain perspective, being able to blame a recession on Brexit is 'covering your backside'? That would translate as "Well have a referendum and if we lose and the economy tanks, the environment gets trashed, we have to accept lower animal welfare standards for food production, we end up desperately seeking trade agreements with deplorable countries in a futile bid to remedy some of the economic damage this whole thing has caused and we can't do anything useful legislatively for 20 years as everybody is working all hours to make sense of the mess but it's OK as we can blame it on the Brexiteers"? That isn't really very canny.

The outcomes are a bit more important than whose fault it is.

veronese68

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

You value a vague notion of sovereignty higher than slowing the economy for at least 14 years.

George Osborne's Project Fear bullsh1t!

At least we'll get an additional £350m a week to spend on the NHS

Too long in Wetherspoons?

That is the reckoning of your leader - Farage

Are you saying that Farage was a part of Project Fear?

I think quoting the £350m a week going to the NHS shows that either Coopster really is that clueless or he is just plain trolling.

kingstongraham

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Veronese68 wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Bahaha Brexiter worrying about the eoconomy.

So voting to remain would have meant we never have another recession?

No, but even the leave side concede that we will be worse off for a while. I believe you admitted it yourself. If we go into a recession it will be made worse by leaving, you voted for it. We haven't left yet so the effect is lessened for now.
Nobody knows if we will be better off long term. So please remember you voted to make the country poorer short term and for an unknown long term.

Brexit is disruptive so there was a risk it would cause economic issues. With the sheer number of politicised economic experts (IMF, Mark Carney, OECD, etc) talking down the UK economy upon a Brexit vote it was going to be very hard for it not to have a negative effect. This was obvious.

Since the vote even I have been surprised at the strength of the UK economy in the face of all this negativity via Project Fear. Funnily enough, all of these experts have revised upwards their UK forecasts with no shame at all or admittance that they were wrong.

And don't reply with the usual cr@p that we have not left yet. Markets are forward looking and after the initial shock of markets pricing Brexit wrong, they know it is going happen and they are not forecasting or pricing in negativity from Brexit.

I voted and accepted there would be a short term hit on the economy upon a leave vote. This has not happened and something I am happy to be wrong about. None of those who voted remain are happy about this. Why is that? It is because it proves them to be wrong?

Happy that it hasn't happened yet, but not overjoyed because I still think it's coming. And won't be short term.

veronese68

Coopster the 1st wrote:

And don't reply with the usual cr@p that we have not left yet. Markets are forward looking and after the initial shock of markets pricing Brexit wrong, they know it is going happen and they are not forecasting or pricing in negativity from Brexit.

So do you believe the worst impact as a result of voting out has already happened and actually leaving won't have an effect?

rick_chasey

If we ignore Brexit, there is an underlying productivity issue.

A French person needs to work 4 days to earn what a Brit earns in 5.

Headline GDP figures look ok but that's for 2 reasons: 1) immigration: importing people who immediately start earning means more people are earning, ergo the overall figures rise.
2) Brits have been working longer hours.

Post crash, workers have been taking on lower wages rather than unemployment. This has pushed down wages and deincentivised firms to invest in more productive means and machines; why would you invest in making your workforce more productive and machines when it's cheaper to hire someone on a low wage. Best example you see is car washes. Once upon a time they were big machines. Now it's cheaper to have 5 guys work on it.

The reasons more broadly are complex. I think a lot of it is to do with shrinking levels of investment (which has continued to slow down post-Brexit).

I think the overvaluation of FS which is roughly 10% of GDP hid how productive the U.K. really was and now that has been corrected it's clearer to see.

A lot of it is also due to poor investment in education and infrastructure. Education is quite old fashioned and too focused on being measured as well as too focused at the top end.

For me anyway it's a technocratic solution, but the Uk public want a populist and political one.

milton50

Surrey Commuter wrote:

You value a vague notion of sovereignty higher than slowing the economy for at least 14 years.

Where did that figure come from?

surrey_commuter

Milton50 wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

You value a vague notion of sovereignty higher than slowing the economy for at least 14 years.

Where did that figure come from?

Farage - it is his definition of the short-term.

milton50

Ha. I was going to discuss how predictions on the economic affect of Brexit beyond a few years out are pointless. But I don't think I need to now, given who made that remark.

surrey_commuter

Milton50 wrote:

Ha. I was going to discuss how predictions on the economic affect of Brexit beyond a few years out are pointless. But I don't think I need to now, given who made that remark.

Predictions are guesswork but I am always happy to discuss long term economic trends

shortfall

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Milton50 wrote:

Ha. I was going to discuss how predictions on the economic affect of Brexit beyond a few years out are pointless. But I don't think I need to now, given who made that remark.

Predictions are guesswork but I am always happy to discuss long term economic trends

Maybe you should get out a bit more?

surrey_commuter

Shortfall wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Milton50 wrote:

Ha. I was going to discuss how predictions on the economic affect of Brexit beyond a few years out are pointless. But I don't think I need to now, given who made that remark.

Predictions are guesswork but I am always happy to discuss long term economic trends

Maybe you should get out a bit more?

An actuary thought I was taking the p1ss at my interest in mortality rates so long term economic trends really is light relief

coopster_the_1st

Veronese68 wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

And don't reply with the usual cr@p that we have not left yet. Markets are forward looking and after the initial shock of markets pricing Brexit wrong, they know it is going happen and they are not forecasting or pricing in negativity from Brexit.

So do you believe the worst impact as a result of voting out has already happened and actually leaving won't have an effect?

I cannot answer that as there are some scenarios e.g. labour getting into power, that I see putting the economy into recession. I am confident that Brexit will not be the cause of the next recession and do believe even reverting to WTO trade rules will not be the cause of a recession.

Do you believe voting to remain would stop the next recession occurring?

surrey_commuter

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Veronese68 wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

And don't reply with the usual cr@p that we have not left yet. Markets are forward looking and after the initial shock of markets pricing Brexit wrong, they know it is going happen and they are not forecasting or pricing in negativity from Brexit.

So do you believe the worst impact as a result of voting out has already happened and actually leaving won't have an effect?

I cannot answer that as there are some scenarios e.g. labour getting into power, that I see putting the economy into recession. I am confident that Brexit will not be the cause of the next recession and do believe even reverting to WTO trade rules will not be the cause of a recession.

Do you believe voting to remain would stop the next recession occurring?

It is not about recession or not - it is about shaving approximately 0.5% off our long term rate of growth due to less favourable trade terms with our major market and a tightening of the labour market.

You have still not named anybody to go on the BBC and argue this is wrong.

veronese68

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Veronese68 wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

And don't reply with the usual cr@p that we have not left yet. Markets are forward looking and after the initial shock of markets pricing Brexit wrong, they know it is going happen and they are not forecasting or pricing in negativity from Brexit.

So do you believe the worst impact as a result of voting out has already happened and actually leaving won't have an effect?

I cannot answer that as there are some scenarios e.g. labour getting into power, that I see putting the economy into recession. I am confident that Brexit will not be the cause of the next recession and do believe even reverting to WTO trade rules will not be the cause of a recession.

Do you believe voting to remain would stop the next recession occurring?

Does that mean you do believe the worst has already happened? We'll have to assume the status quo with regards to the election.
I don't think remaining will stop all future recessions? No, that's ridiculous. Do I think remaining would have caused a recession? No. Do I believe we would be better off remaining? Yes. Do I believe leaving could cause a recession? Yes. Do I think we'll be worse off leaving? Yes.