North Korea/US

pinno

Wtf?

Is this posturing or deadly serious?

rjsterry

Did you see the bit with 5 or 6 NK school boys singing a song in front of a large screen showing footage of a missile launch?

I can certainly see why China is asking everyone to calm the **** down.

pinno

I did, I saw that clip.

Someone has to get that f*cking idiot out of the Whitehouse.

TheBigBean

Can't imagine North Korea doing anything, sadly, Trump is a whole lot less predictable.

mr_goo

Pretty rich from China to say everyone should calm down. They're the ones that have given N Korea the financial clout and technology to develop nuclear weapons. How else could heavily sanctioned country do so otherwise?
The UN and diplomatic measures have proved impotent. China want N Korea as their own extended sort of DMZ. S Korea and Japan are under threat from N Korean missiles and encouraged to take it up the a**e. And the US are now threatened with ICBMs.

Something has to give and its gonna end in tears.

capt_slog

Pinno wrote:

I did, I saw that clip.

Someone has to get that f*cking idiot out of the Whitehouse.

Although i don't like the man and agree he should be out, I don't think he will be the problem. He's a fool but at least he is accountable, whereas Kim isn't just bonkers and treated like a god by his people.

Lookyhere

Mr Goo wrote:

Pretty rich from China to say everyone should calm down. They're the ones that have given N Korea the financial clout and technology to develop nuclear weapons. How else could heavily sanctioned country do so otherwise?
The UN and diplomatic measures have proved impotent. China want N Korea as their own extended sort of DMZ. S Korea and Japan are under threat from N Korean missiles and encouraged to take it up the a**e. And the US are now threatened with ICBMs.

Something has to give and its gonna end in tears.

China has allowed this situation to develop, in order to prevent hoards of economic refugees fleeing into china if the place collapsed.

Of course a regional nuclear war would lead to far far worse and even if contained, would make the worst predictions of project fear seem like utopia compared to the global economic impact.

Kim Jong is nt mad at all, just cornered and that makes him very dangerous.

But Trump made no secret of what he would do if elected and as we all now, the electorate are ALWAYS right.

bendertherobot

Has anyone seen Idiocracy?

TheBigBean

Lookyhere wrote:

China has allowed this situation to develop, in order to prevent hoards of economic refugees fleeing into china if the place collapsed.

Of course a regional nuclear war would lead to far far worse and even if contained, would make the worst predictions of project fear seem like utopia compared to the global economic impact.

Kim Jong is nt mad at all, just cornered and that makes him very dangerous.

But Trump made no secret of what he would do if elected and as we all now, the electorate are ALWAYS right.

There are plenty of refugees already in China. They are mostly being exploited due to the Chinese government's less than legal position on refugees. If everything collapsed then presumably most would head for South Korea, so that is not the reason that China lends support.

North Korea is highly unlikely to make any move against any other country as it is perfectly happy to live in complete isolation. This is the fundamental teaching of Kim Il Sung - self sufficiency. Sure, they would be delighted to unite Korea, but the leaders aren't stupid, they know this would be completely impossible. Therefore, the most dangerous thing that any country can do is stir the hornet's nest and attack. This is why Trump is such a danger.

Back to why China supports North Korea. I'm not sure anyone truly knows. There's clearly something in the supposed communist name of China that makes North Korea a comrade, but there must be more to it than that. Maybe it is simply better the devil you know.

There was speculation that the Chinese would like to have used Kim Jong Nam as a puppet leader hence his demise, but in the end, very little is known about the inner workings of North Korea's government outside of North Korea.

bendertherobot

Trump is a danger. But, on this week's evidence, he seems to have abrogated responsibility for action to his military preferring instead to opine on delicious chocolate cake.

I'm sure he hasn't actually delegated all authority to the military but it sure as hell looked like it.

slowmart

In the context of North Korea, Trumps unpredictability will be an assist as he's off the scale in how he's commonly perceived for unhinged and over the top reaction. North Korea aren't fools, nor mad as they would have lasted this long without either the patronage of China who see a unified Korea as detrimental to their interests, nor a political and military machine with a degree of capability. Maybe Trumps potential for unpredictable action will make China see that a unified Korea is a better option than military action.

If Trump has deferred to the military he must have set a context or a series of aims which on the whole is better than Hitleresk behaviour when a ex corporal commanded the entire German military.

If North Korea does test a nuclear bomb today I'd suggest the US will target the top echelon of North Korea's military and political leadership which is why hopefully we see a deceleration of activity from both sides.

Two nut jobs with nuclear weapons and king size ego's........let's hope it will end well but we're kicking a can down the road with both leaders

Lookyhere

TheBigBean wrote:

Lookyhere wrote:

China has allowed this situation to develop, in order to prevent hoards of economic refugees fleeing into china if the place collapsed.

Of course a regional nuclear war would lead to far far worse and even if contained, would make the worst predictions of project fear seem like utopia compared to the global economic impact.

Kim Jong is nt mad at all, just cornered and that makes him very dangerous.

But Trump made no secret of what he would do if elected and as we all now, the electorate are ALWAYS right.

There are plenty of refugees already in China. They are mostly being exploited due to the Chinese government's less than legal position on refugees. If everything collapsed then presumably most would head for South Korea, so that is not the reason that China lends support.

North Korea is highly unlikely to make any move against any other country as it is perfectly happy to live in complete isolation. This is the fundamental teaching of Kim Il Sung - self sufficiency. Sure, they would be delighted to unite Korea, but the leaders aren't stupid, they know this would be completely impossible. Therefore, the most dangerous thing that any country can do is stir the hornet's nest and attack. This is why Trump is such a danger.

Back to why China supports North Korea. I'm not sure anyone truly knows. There's clearly something in the supposed communist name of China that makes North Korea a comrade, but there must be more to it than that. Maybe it is simply better the devil you know.

There was speculation that the Chinese would like to have used Kim Jong Nam as a puppet leader hence his demise, but in the end, very little is known about the inner workings of North Korea's government outside of North Korea.

24 million ill educated and malnourished Koreans... why would they head to the south? there are 2 million NK refugees in china, they cant cross the border to the south, also they ve been told for generations that the SK are the enemy, sure though some would. Collapse would mean US troops on the Chinese border too, unacceptable for Beijing.

China and the N Koreans certainly have a very ill tempered relationship, they cant even agree on where the borders are.

I agree NK should be left alone or i would have, if they didnt have and want the means to have nuclear weapons capable of reaching the 'states, so i dont agree the NK want to be left in isolation, given the rhetoric and the continued missile tests, the USA will be forced to react or even act first and god alone knows where that will lead.

TheBigBean

They can't currently cross the border to the south, but would be able to if North Korea collapsed. The goal of the refugees in China is to get to the South - do you think they like their current status as illegal exploited migrants? They haven't been told that South Koreans are the enemy, they have been told that the "puppet government" is the enemy. Nonetheless, after watching a few South Korean TV shows, it becomes apparent that life is more tolerable in the south.

Furthermore, if all 24m North Koreans left (unlikely), China would be delighted to pick up all the natural resources left behind whilst providing absolutely nothing for the refugees.

There is a video online of North Koreans storming a South Korean embassy in China with the Chinese police "protecting" the embassy and trying to prevent TV crews from filming.

I'm not sure that China is in agreement about its borders with any of its many neighbouring countries.

Ben6899

bendertherobot wrote:

Has anyone seen Idiocracy?

Seen it. Once on DVD and now the real life theatrical version... started last May/June.

bendertherobot

Ben6899 wrote:

bendertherobot wrote:

Has anyone seen Idiocracy?

Seen it. Once on DVD and now the real life theatrical version... started last May/June.

All we need now is electrolytes.

kingstonian

TheBigBean wrote:

They can't currently cross the border to the south, but would be able to if North Korea collapsed. The goal of the refugees in China is to get to the South - do you think they like their current status as illegal exploited migrants? They haven't been told that South Koreans are the enemy, they have been told that the "puppet government" is the enemy. Nonetheless, after watching a few South Korean TV shows, it becomes apparent that life is more tolerable in the south.

Furthermore, if all 24m North Koreans left (unlikely), China would be delighted to pick up all the natural resources left behind whilst providing absolutely nothing for the refugees.

There is a video online of North Koreans storming a South Korean embassy in China with the Chinese police "protecting" the embassy and trying to prevent TV crews from filming.

I'm not sure that China is in agreement about its borders with any of its many neighbouring countries.

What natural resources are there in North Korea? Believe they largely live off coal imports from China, so can't be coal. But I have no idea what else there might be in the country.

TheBigBean

Kingstonian wrote:

What natural resources are there in North Korea? Believe they largely live off coal imports from China, so can't be coal. But I have no idea what else there might be in the country.

North Korea is a coal exporter; hence Chinese threats to stop importing and deprive North Korea of revenues. Note that statements like this have been made before.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northko ... 51315.html

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mining_in_North_Korea

North Korea is naturally abundant in metals such as magnesite, zinc, tungsten, and iron; with magnesite resources of 6 billion tonnes (second largest in the world),

Then you get articles like this

http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/north-ko ... re-earths/

which suggest North Korea has the same amount of rare earth oxides as the rest of the world put together. China currently has something of a monopoly on these due it its lax mining standards.

TheBigBean

Further to the above, outside of Pyongyang, it is like going back in time. Nothing is exploited (other than the people). So farming is still done with an ox and cart. This provides very low, but organic, yields. The thing is, it is an example of how tough life is without using stored energy in the form of oil.

To solve the absence of oil problem, North Korea has always been very keen to build a nuclear power station. On this basis Kim Jong Il agreed with Bill Clinton in 1994 that if the North Korea ceased development of nuclear weapons the US would assist after 8 years with the development of a nuclear power station. Unfortunately, after 8 years, Clinton had left and been replaced by Bush and the new war on terrorism. Therefore, instead of nuclear assistance, North Korea was branded part of the axis of evil. Noting, that another part of the axis was invaded shortly afterwards, Kim Jong Il determined that nuclear weapons were essential and recommenced development. Alternatively, the agreement was broken by North Korea's continued development of nuclear weapons. Either way, that's where we are now. No nuclear power stations, but nuclear weapons instead.

mamba80

can any of this be verified? i mean how would we know what NK has or hasnt got mineral wise?

for a country you say wants to be "left in isolation and is highly unlikely to move against any country" why build nuclear weapons and delivery systems (but not a nuclear power station? i m sure if the US wouldnt help their chinese friends would?) and again over night attempt another - this time failed - missile launch?

its not as if the yanks would know some projectile heading toward the Japanese sea is a test weapon or.....

TheBigBean

mamba80 wrote:

can any of this be verified? i mean how would we know what NK has or hasnt got mineral wise?

You'll need to ask a geologist. I would imagine the exports are fairly well known, but the stuff in the ground is an educated guess.

mamba80 wrote:

for a country you say wants to be "left in isolation and is highly unlikely to move against any country" why build nuclear weapons and delivery systems

Defence - North Korea not unreasonably fears it may be invaded in the same way Iraq was. Also, North Korea needs enemies in order to keep the regime going, so any reaction from the South Korean "puppet government" or the US is always useful in cementing power in North Korea.

mamba80 wrote:

(but not a nuclear power station? i m sure if the US wouldnt help their chinese friends would?)

North Korea would absolutely love a nuclear power station, but I'm guessing doesn't have the technological capability or resources to build one. (Nor does the UK it seems). China is clearly not interested in helping much either. As noted above, China is currently pretending not to be buying North Korean coal, and I imagine its international development budget is small to non-existent.

Also, presumably power stations are bit harder to hide and conceal.

pinno

North Korean missile launch (presumably an ICBM) failed this morning.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39612095

slowmart

Pinno wrote:

North Korean missile launch (presumably an ICBM) failed this morning.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39612095

I doubt (hopefully) that it wasn't an ICBM as that would be viewed as a significant provocation and escalation by the American administration. Regardless of the success the intent would be palpable and viewed as only a second to a nuclear weapon going off.

ugo.santalucia

It's all theatre... Trump needs approval as his domestic policy is stagnating, the Koreans are happy they can do a bit of propaganda... nothing meaningful will happen

slowmart

Well no one is evacuating Seoul nor have the Americans issued a notice to their citizens to vacate the area.

I'd argue his domestic policy hasn't stalled, certainly there have been some high profile loses in the courts but the economy is doing fine and all the legislation which in essence is being repealed means a conducive environment for business.

Although the long term effects for the environment and business will be detrimental

Let's hope the Security apparatus of the American military and intelligence community are starting to gain traction and reduce the bumps from a unpredictable President

Mikey23

Closest weve been to nuclear holocaust for many a long year. They are a strange people. And so are the North Koreans. But hey, no worries the sun is shining so lets concentrate on the trite and the trivial like we always do...

kingstongraham

Mikey23 wrote:

Closest weve been to nuclear holocaust for many a long year. They are a strange people. And so are the North Koreans. But hey, no worries the sun is shining so lets concentrate on the trite and the trivial like we always do...

What can I actually do, other than worry? And that seems like a waste of valuable time.

Garry H

KingstonGraham wrote:

Mikey23 wrote:

Closest weve been to nuclear holocaust for many a long year. They are a strange people. And so are the North Koreans. But hey, no worries the sun is shining so lets concentrate on the trite and the trivial like we always do...

What can I actually do, other than worry? And that seems like a waste of valuable time.

Stock up on tinned food and head for the hills!

Stevo_666

Garry H wrote:

Stock up on tinned food and head for the hills!

So you don't have to do anything then Garry?

bianchimoon

Stevo 666 wrote:

Garry H wrote:

Stock up on tinned food and head for the hills!

So you don't have to do anything then Garry?

just legalise the marriage to his sisters cusin'

jokin

pinno

^

The actual logistics of dropping a Nuke on North Korea is a tricky one, those strategic points so close to S Korea.
I expect that Kim Jong very Ill has to maintain the ante: it's all part of the control/dictatorial "together we're united against the evil enemy" rhetoric. So I am wondering exactly how diplomacy in any form will work as that may be seen as concessions to the enemy.

bianchimoon

Pinno wrote:

^

The actual logistics of dropping a Nuke on North Korea is a tricky one, those strategic points so close to S Korea.
I expect that Kim Jong very Ill has to maintain the ante: it's all part of the control/dictatorial "together we're united against the evil enemy" rhetoric. So I am wondering exactly how diplomacy in any form will work as that may be seen as concessions to the enemy.

yes, he's been backed into a corner, he can't really not have any more tests/firings and retain the unquestioned power he has. If I lived in Seoul, i'd be taking a holiday further south sharpish