TdF 2016 Stage 10 *Contains spoilers*

pottssteve
pottssteve Posts: 4,069
edited July 2016 in Pro race
Stage 10 is 197km from somewhere Sean Kelly is possibly unable to pronounce to the town of Revel, presumably where the chocolates come from:

CARTE.jpg

Straight into it with a bonkers Cat 1 up the Port d'Envalira for the Souvenir Henri Desgrange, so expect to see lots of warming up on the rollers before the stage starts. Henri would no doubt frown on the use of a derailleur:

PROFIL.png

Weather forecast from the Le Tour website, which is apparently fluent in Google Translate:

"The start of the stage will be under a variable sky. The risk of showers will be present. There will be wind gusts up to 60 km/h when arriving at Port d'Envalira.
While arriving in the plain,the sky will be grey with temporarily showers and northwesterly crosswind. Temperatures will range between 12°C in the Pyrénées at 2400m and 21°C in Revel."

Plenty of chance to discuss crosswinds on the plain, and an interesting stage finish with a little Cat 3 followed by a flat last 1km.

Will there be a breakaway? Will there be a sprint finish? Will the flame rouge manage to maintain an erection? For answers to these and other questions, stay tuned.....
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Comments

  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
    Looks like a small Milan-Sanremo, so the obvious favourite are Sagan, Cancellara, Cavendish, Van Aevermat and the German sprinters... Rui Costa might strike lucky in a breakaway and Majka-Pinot will surely breakaway
    left the forum March 2023
  • pottssteve
    pottssteve Posts: 4,069
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    Looks like a small Milan-Sanremo, so the obvious favourite are Sagan, Cancellara, Cavendish, Van Aevermat and the German sprinters... Rui Costa might strike lucky in a breakaway and Majka-Pinot will surely breakaway


    Most of it does, with the obvious exception of the bl00dy great hill at the start...

    Gerrans?
    Another one for Cummings? (although I'd be surprised if he was allowed to mug them twice in one tour)
    Bling?
    Kristoff?
    Boasson Hagen?

    Could be interesting if they are all together near the end.
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  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,704
    The weather forecast, which could well become the crucial factor over the course of the next 3 days.

    etape_10.png

    Will this wind arrive in time for the finish?
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • kleinstroker
    kleinstroker Posts: 2,133
    Le Cheval Merens

    merens-2.jpg
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
    pottssteve wrote:
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    Looks like a small Milan-Sanremo, so the obvious favourite are Sagan, Cancellara, Cavendish, Van Aevermat and the German sprinters... Rui Costa might strike lucky in a breakaway and Majka-Pinot will surely breakaway


    Most of it does, with the obvious exception of the bl00dy great hill at the start...

    .

    I can see the breakaway going full on up the climb, but the rest of the peloton will probably pace it... I expect Cavendish to keep up after a rest day. In Tarascon the breakaway will have 10 minutes or so... then it's up to the teams to catch them or let them go. The last 10 Km are exactly like Milan-Sanremo
    left the forum March 2023
  • pottssteve
    pottssteve Posts: 4,069
    Blazing Saddles wrote:
    The weather forecast, which could well become the crucial factor over the course of the next 3 days.

    etape_10.png

    Will this wind arrive in time for the finish?

    From my post above:

    "While arriving in the plain,the sky will be grey with temporarily showers and northwesterly crosswind."

    So yes, possibly. If it's strong enough it might make holding a small break difficult.
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  • pottssteve
    pottssteve Posts: 4,069
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    pottssteve wrote:
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    Looks like a small Milan-Sanremo, so the obvious favourite are Sagan, Cancellara, Cavendish, Van Aevermat and the German sprinters... Rui Costa might strike lucky in a breakaway and Majka-Pinot will surely breakaway


    Most of it does, with the obvious exception of the bl00dy great hill at the start...

    .

    I can see the breakaway going full on up the climb, but the rest of the peloton will probably pace it... I expect Cavendish to keep up after a rest day. In Tarascon the breakaway will have 10 minutes or so... then it's up to the teams to catch them or let them go. The last 10 Km are exactly like Milan-Sanremo

    I agree some of them will be caning it over the first climb. If anything the run in is a little easier than MSR, with a bit less climbing. Also it's about 100km shorter, but the headwind could make it interesting...
    Head Hands Heart Lungs Legs
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,704
    Never mind possible crosswinds for a moment.
    What they have got to contend with is this:-

    https://twitter.com/mcewenrobbie/status ... 9161399296

    Had the same, last September and it was really, really bad.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • pottssteve
    pottssteve Posts: 4,069
    edited July 2016
    Interesting to see what, if anything, the organisers plan to do...

    Webcams in the area showing a mix of fog/mist and blue sky, so hopefully the winds will blow it away...

    http://www.snoweye.com/?page=ad
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  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
    pottssteve wrote:
    Interesting to see what, if anything, the organisers plan to do...

    Business as usual? I really despise the recent "formula 1-like" attitude of cancelling/neutralising a race every time the forecast contain an element of danger... they are professionals who spend their life on a bicycle, surely they have been down a misty mountain before and 25 metres visibility is not bad... maybe bad for TV, but it's definitively race-able...
    left the forum March 2023
  • pottssteve
    pottssteve Posts: 4,069
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    pottssteve wrote:
    Interesting to see what, if anything, the organisers plan to do...

    Business as usual? I really despise the recent "formula 1-like" attitude of cancelling/neutralising a race every time the forecast contain an element of danger... they are professionals who spend their life on a bicycle, surely they have been down a misty mountain before and 25 metres visibility is not bad... maybe bad for TV, but it's definitively race-able...

    I hope so. They have a couple of hours for it to blow over, anyway.
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  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,241
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    pottssteve wrote:
    Interesting to see what, if anything, the organisers plan to do...

    Business as usual? I really despise the recent "formula 1-like" attitude of cancelling/neutralising a race every time the forecast contain an element of danger... they are professionals who spend their life on a bicycle, surely they have been down a misty mountain before and 25 metres visibility is not bad... maybe bad for TV, but it's definitively race-able...
    Let's hope for a really bad crash to bring some excitement into what looks like a dull stage. I agree about F1. It really lost its soul when drivers stopped dying.

    (Yes, I'm being sacastic. The first climb won't even be on TV. You'll miss a twenty second clip in the highlights show at most)
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,704
    edited July 2016
    RichN95 wrote:
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    pottssteve wrote:
    Interesting to see what, if anything, the organisers plan to do...

    Business as usual? I really despise the recent "formula 1-like" attitude of cancelling/neutralising a race every time the forecast contain an element of danger... they are professionals who spend their life on a bicycle, surely they have been down a misty mountain before and 25 metres visibility is not bad... maybe bad for TV, but it's definitively race-able...
    Let's hope for a really bad crash to bring some excitement into what looks like a dull stage. I agree about F1. It really lost its soul when drivers stopped dying.

    (Yes, I'm being sacastic. The first climb won't even be on TV. You'll miss a twenty second clip in the highlights show at most)


    Surely the issue isn't about whether we get any gruesome crash images, but how any possible neutralisation could effect the breakaway?

    https://twitter.com/willfoth/status/752782316259381248

    https://twitter.com/willfoth/status/752782316259381248
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,536
    The stage depends whether Tinkoff are willing to work all day. Tinkoff plus another team could remove most of the sprinters from the stage and hand Sagan lots of green jersey points.
  • specialgueststar
    specialgueststar Posts: 3,418
    kom short stage for Pinot vs Majka
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,310
    Blazing Saddles wrote:
    RichN95 wrote:
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    pottssteve wrote:
    Interesting to see what, if anything, the organisers plan to do...

    Business as usual? I really despise the recent "formula 1-like" attitude of cancelling/neutralising a race every time the forecast contain an element of danger... they are professionals who spend their life on a bicycle, surely they have been down a misty mountain before and 25 metres visibility is not bad... maybe bad for TV, but it's definitively race-able...
    Let's hope for a really bad crash to bring some excitement into what looks like a dull stage. I agree about F1. It really lost its soul when drivers stopped dying.

    (Yes, I'm being sacastic. The first climb won't even be on TV. You'll miss a twenty second clip in the highlights show at most)


    Surely the issue isn't about whether we get any gruesome crash images, but how any possible neutralisation could effect the breakaway?

    https://twitter.com/willfoth/status/752782316259381248

    https://twitter.com/willfoth/status/752782316259381248

    That's the point... the initial climb/descent is the opportunity to make this into an interesting stage... if you take it away, you can be 100% sure it will be a sprint finish
    left the forum March 2023
  • Vino'sGhost
    Vino'sGhost Posts: 4,129
    Sagan having a dig

    you can watch this live on franceTV already
  • jscl
    jscl Posts: 1,015
    Vino'sGhost wrote:
    Sagan having a dig

    you can watch this live on franceTV already
    I think he won't be winning the stage. Some good efforts being put in to try and gap and he REALLY wants that intermediate sprint.
    Follow me on Twitter - http://twitter.com/scalesjason - All posts are strictly my personal view.
  • pottssteve
    pottssteve Posts: 4,069
    repeated attacks, but all together at present
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  • jscl
    jscl Posts: 1,015
    pottssteve wrote:
    repeated attacks, but all together at present
    Costa has 40 seconds.
    Follow me on Twitter - http://twitter.com/scalesjason - All posts are strictly my personal view.
  • pottssteve
    pottssteve Posts: 4,069
    Looks like Costa will be first over the top...
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  • epc06
    epc06 Posts: 216
    Vino'sGhost wrote:
    Sagan having a dig

    you can watch this live on franceTV already

    I know they aren't, but I was sure I read somewhere that Eurosport were going to televise stages from start to finish this year
  • pottssteve
    pottssteve Posts: 4,069
    Costa is first over and wins the Desgrage prize and 10 KOM points
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  • pottssteve
    pottssteve Posts: 4,069
    Descending onto the flat plain now as they travel into France. If it's not too early where you are you may like to join me playing "crosswinds bingo". Very simply, you get a drink every time crosswinds are mentioned. An extra mouthful it's specific, such as a cross-tail. If you are watching D. Millar on ITV 4 you will be drunk within about 15 minutes......
    Head Hands Heart Lungs Legs
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,310
    Etixx - Quick-Step ‏@Etixx_QuickStep · 7m7 minutes ago

    Rui Costa, Michael Matthews, Vincenzo Nibali and Peter Sagan are in the lead. Peloton 50 seconds adrift. #TDF2016
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,536
    What's wrong with proper rollers?
  • RonB
    RonB Posts: 3,984
    Lead group has swelled a bit and things "might" settle down now as Sky and Movistar have riders in there in Landa and Izagirre respectively.
  • pottssteve
    pottssteve Posts: 4,069
    Break:
    Sagan, Matthews, Nibali, Costa, Cummings, Landa, G. Izaguirre, Sam Dumoulin, Caruso, Boasson Hagen, Gallopin, Durbridge and Impey.

    They have about 3 minutes on the peloton
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  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    I was thinking about Matthews for PTP. Some properly strong riders in that breakaway.
  • pottssteve
    pottssteve Posts: 4,069
    Milton50 wrote:
    I was thinking about Matthews for PTP. Some properly strong riders in that breakaway.

    Indeed. There is a headwind, so they will have to work together to stay out. They have about 3'15" at the moment, but still over 100km to go.
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