Joining the Van Looy, Merckx and De Vlaeminck club
TheBigBean
Posts: 18,164
Which of the current riders do you think is most likely to join the all-conquering monument club? Probably best to ignore likely retirements.
Also, in which order do you think they are likely to do it?
I'm struggling to imagine Valverde or Gilbert winning P-R or Cancellara winning LBL / Lombardy.
So, Sagan it has to be. MSR, P-R, LBL and then Lombardy .
Also, in which order do you think they are likely to do it?
I'm struggling to imagine Valverde or Gilbert winning P-R or Cancellara winning LBL / Lombardy.
So, Sagan it has to be. MSR, P-R, LBL and then Lombardy .
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And what the heck is Joinging. Is it a Belgie thing?
If people tried, then probably. But it's Lombardy, the race that the calendar almost forgets. Much less depth of contenders.
if one judge this question on the basis of allowing an assumption hardly proper climbers pony up....
Kwiatkowski, Gilbert, Thomas and Nibali probably have the ability to be competitive in all five. Maybe Valverde too.
Can't see it - can't sprint for toffee and isn't explosive enough to drop people on the Poggio or Flanders type power climbs. I'd say Valverde had a reasonable chance if he'd focused on it - very fast in his younger days, the distance doesn't bother him and has proven to have the bike handling for Paris Roubaix cobbles.
- @ddraver
said Cancellara in 2010. 6 years later and he's still stuck on 3.
Edit: well MSR not so much
Really?
That's a few assumptions without even mentioning the slim chance of MSR
Anyway I though jack of all trades master of none was a GT man these days. His calender won't suit a monuments campaign each season
The reality is that riders have specialised now, so much so that people are discounting a rider who won RVV in dominant style from PR the week after. So the difference between a rider that could win LBL, GdL and a rider who could win the cobbled classics must be a chasm these days.
If anyone does it they re going to need a heft slice of luck (i.e. the main contenders for the race all crashing or falling ill)
- @ddraver
Though based on a 95th place in Flanders as not only his best but only result at RVV/PR probably not.
Gilbert could have done but he's getting on now.
Kwiatkowski is a possibility, as is Geraint but I think he's moving more towards stage racing now.
Won liege, won Lombardy, twice podium in Flanders, twice podium in Milan San Remo, won the worlds and has won het Volk with a 50km solo.
He's won some pretty hilly races in the past. One in Tirreno Adriatico comes to mind.
And on paper he should really suit the new Flanders course (Paterberg attack) - he's not ridden Flanders in anger since the Muur/Bosberg days. He always seemed to launch on the Bosberg but it wasn't long enough or steep enough to get a decisive gap.
Couldn't see him winning Roubaix though.
I think the problem with the 5 monuments is that no-one has it as a goal.
The cobbled classics archetype is the sturdy sprinter turned strong-man, and that of course fits well with San Remo to but that type of rider is never going to win L-B-L/Lombardy (Museeuw, Boonen, Kristoff, Degenkolb, Démare). The Ardennes/Lombardy archetype is punchy climber that tends to dabble in the GC at stage races and it's the stage racing that usually extinguishes any focus on the cobbles (I can see this being Kwiatkowski's predicament at Sky).
Sagan, Kwiatkowski, Benoot and Matthews are the most likely of the current generation in my eyes. If only Matthews was born and bred in Belgium...
And what about that stupendous slog up Mt. Baldy last year. Not sure I've seen that level of determination from any rider in the last few years. I wasn't much of a Sagan fan before but I was converted after that effort.
Interesting article on his versatility here
http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/rac ... nia-172191
Sure, that Mount Baldy effort was a great ride. But that's different to riding a 250km classic with around 5000m of climbing. I just can't see him getting the better of the likes of Valverde, Rodriguez, Gerrans who are 10kg+ lighter than him.
Maybe a more pertinent question is who will be next to win 3 different monuments? I think we currently have Degenkolb, Gerrans, Kristoff & Gilbert on 2 - will Sagan beat them all to 3?
Can't see Kristoff winning PR.
just too many good riders that are prepared to peak for a certain block of the season - but given that Sagan is so good throughout the year that you'd have to put him as the most likely. I could see him being good at a second half of a season and bagging the Falling Leaves by riding smart but LBL is the one probably beyond him because he's got to go up against the likes of a Dan Martin
--Jens Voight
Possibly the best all-rounder (who you could see being up there to contend in all 5) is Greg Van Avermaet. But he'll possibly not even win 1.
Kwiatkowski could challenge in all but PR you'd think. As noted, the issue is really about being able to finish them off, esp. MSR.
Could new, climby focussed Geraint be in with a shout of Lombardy / LBL?
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