Joining the Van Looy, Merckx and De Vlaeminck club

TheBigBean
TheBigBean Posts: 21,927
edited April 2019 in Pro race
Which of the current riders do you think is most likely to join the all-conquering monument club? Probably best to ignore likely retirements.

Also, in which order do you think they are likely to do it?

I'm struggling to imagine Valverde or Gilbert winning P-R or Cancellara winning LBL / Lombardy.

So, Sagan it has to be. MSR, P-R, LBL and then Lombardy .
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Comments

  • timoid.
    timoid. Posts: 3,133
    Nobody. Sagan would never win LBL.

    And what the heck is Joinging. Is it a Belgie thing? :)
    It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.
  • Richmond Racer 2
    Richmond Racer 2 Posts: 4,698
    Lombardy maybe out of his reach?
  • timoid.
    timoid. Posts: 3,133
    Richmond Racer 2 wrote:
    Lombardy maybe out of his reach?

    If people tried, then probably. But it's Lombardy, the race that the calendar almost forgets. Much less depth of contenders.
    It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Once upon a time it would have been Gilbert.
    _
  • bigmat
    bigmat Posts: 5,134
    Kwiatkowski has the right balance, but not convinced he's good enough. Can't really see anybody doing it in this era, its a huge ask to be fair.
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/41991871@N ... otostream/
  • Richmond Racer 2
    Richmond Racer 2 Posts: 4,698
    Timoid. wrote:
    Richmond Racer 2 wrote:
    Lombardy maybe out of his reach?

    If people tried, then probably. But it's Lombardy, the race that the calendar almost forgets. Much less depth of contenders.



    if one judge this question on the basis of allowing an assumption hardly proper climbers pony up....
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,927
    Nibali?
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    If Sagan dropped about 10k in weight then maybe he could do it. But I can't see him trying.

    Kwiatkowski, Gilbert, Thomas and Nibali probably have the ability to be competitive in all five. Maybe Valverde too.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,106
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Nibali?

    Can't see it - can't sprint for toffee and isn't explosive enough to drop people on the Poggio or Flanders type power climbs. I'd say Valverde had a reasonable chance if he'd focused on it - very fast in his younger days, the distance doesn't bother him and has proven to have the bike handling for Paris Roubaix cobbles.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,700
    Gerraint Thomas is a great call Rich. Would probably have to be a break at LBL as he doesnt really have a puncheur sprint and then, conversely, hanging on to a group and winning a long sprint or a final km breakaway for Lombardia
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • inseine
    inseine Posts: 5,788
    "My dream is five monuments and I have three now. There aren’t so many riders in the peloton that have three. My motivation is always geared towards more than one race. Okay, now I have [Flanders], but in the next few years, it's possible I'm going to work on other ones."

    said Cancellara in 2010. 6 years later and he's still stuck on 3.
    http://cyclinganddesign.blogspot.fr/
  • Paulie Walnuts
    Paulie Walnuts Posts: 58
    edited April 2016
    looking forward, Benoot surely has the versatility be competitive in all of them

    Edit: well MSR not so much
  • epc06
    epc06 Posts: 216
    ddraver wrote:
    Gerraint Thomas is a great call Rich. Would probably have to be a break at LBL as he doesnt really have a puncheur sprint and then, conversely, hanging on to a group and winning a long sprint or a final km breakaway for Lombardia

    Really?

    That's a few assumptions without even mentioning the slim chance of MSR

    Anyway I though jack of all trades master of none was a GT man these days. His calender won't suit a monuments campaign each season
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,700
    edited April 2016
    I'd say that's Thomas' main issue but I can't think of a better answer. Can you name another rider than has won Paris Nice and a cobbled classic (i.e. E3) in the modern era?

    The reality is that riders have specialised now, so much so that people are discounting a rider who won RVV in dominant style from PR the week after. So the difference between a rider that could win LBL, GdL and a rider who could win the cobbled classics must be a chasm these days.

    If anyone does it they re going to need a heft slice of luck (i.e. the main contenders for the race all crashing or falling ill)
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,439
    Gerrans?

    Though based on a 95th place in Flanders as not only his best but only result at RVV/PR probably not.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    No way Sagan's going to win LBL or Lombardy at his current weight.

    Gilbert could have done but he's getting on now.

    Kwiatkowski is a possibility, as is Geraint but I think he's moving more towards stage racing now.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Gilbert has got nearest.

    Won liege, won Lombardy, twice podium in Flanders, twice podium in Milan San Remo, won the worlds and has won het Volk with a 50km solo.
    _
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,927
    As OP, just wanted to say the thread was meant to be about most likely as opposed to actually likely.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,927
    Milton50 wrote:
    No way Sagan's going to win LBL or Lombardy at his current weight.

    He's won some pretty hilly races in the past. One in Tirreno Adriatico comes to mind.
  • EKIMIKE
    EKIMIKE Posts: 2,232
    edited April 2016
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Gilbert has got nearest.

    Won liege, won Lombardy, twice podium in Flanders, twice podium in Milan San Remo, won the worlds and has won het Volk with a 50km solo.

    And on paper he should really suit the new Flanders course (Paterberg attack) - he's not ridden Flanders in anger since the Muur/Bosberg days. He always seemed to launch on the Bosberg but it wasn't long enough or steep enough to get a decisive gap.

    Couldn't see him winning Roubaix though.

    I think the problem with the 5 monuments is that no-one has it as a goal.

    The cobbled classics archetype is the sturdy sprinter turned strong-man, and that of course fits well with San Remo to but that type of rider is never going to win L-B-L/Lombardy (Museeuw, Boonen, Kristoff, Degenkolb, Démare). The Ardennes/Lombardy archetype is punchy climber that tends to dabble in the GC at stage races and it's the stage racing that usually extinguishes any focus on the cobbles (I can see this being Kwiatkowski's predicament at Sky).

    Sagan, Kwiatkowski, Benoot and Matthews are the most likely of the current generation in my eyes. If only Matthews was born and bred in Belgium...
    Canyon Endurace CF 2014 | Canyon Ultimate CF 2010
  • manic_esso
    manic_esso Posts: 92
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Milton50 wrote:
    No way Sagan's going to win LBL or Lombardy at his current weight.

    He's won some pretty hilly races in the past. One in Tirreno Adriatico comes to mind.

    And what about that stupendous slog up Mt. Baldy last year. Not sure I've seen that level of determination from any rider in the last few years. I wasn't much of a Sagan fan before but I was converted after that effort.

    Interesting article on his versatility here

    http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/rac ... nia-172191
  • EKIMIKE
    EKIMIKE Posts: 2,232
    Double post, ignore.
    Canyon Endurace CF 2014 | Canyon Ultimate CF 2010
  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    manic_esso wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Milton50 wrote:
    No way Sagan's going to win LBL or Lombardy at his current weight.

    He's won some pretty hilly races in the past. One in Tirreno Adriatico comes to mind.

    And what about that stupendous slog up Mt. Baldy last year. Not sure I've seen that level of determination from any rider in the last few years. I wasn't much of a Sagan fan before but I was converted after that effort.

    Sure, that Mount Baldy effort was a great ride. But that's different to riding a 250km classic with around 5000m of climbing. I just can't see him getting the better of the likes of Valverde, Rodriguez, Gerrans who are 10kg+ lighter than him.
  • thegibdog
    thegibdog Posts: 2,106
    It's hard to see anyone winning all 5 these days isn't it? I'd say Sagan would be more likely than anyone else at the moment though.

    Maybe a more pertinent question is who will be next to win 3 different monuments? I think we currently have Degenkolb, Gerrans, Kristoff & Gilbert on 2 - will Sagan beat them all to 3?
    https://gibworth.mypixieset.com
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Degenkolb is a decent shout.

    Can't see Kristoff winning PR.
    _
  • edhornby
    edhornby Posts: 1,780
    winning the full set of monuments is about as likely as winning all 3 GTs in a year (or even the tour and one other..)

    just too many good riders that are prepared to peak for a certain block of the season - but given that Sagan is so good throughout the year that you'd have to put him as the most likely. I could see him being good at a second half of a season and bagging the Falling Leaves by riding smart but LBL is the one probably beyond him because he's got to go up against the likes of a Dan Martin
    "I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, how good is that"
    --Jens Voight
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,106
    I would be surprised if Sagan doesn't win Flanders, I'd be surprised if he does win Lombardy, MSR I wouldn't be surprised if he does but he might find there is always a faster sprinter there at the end, LBL I think he has a good chance but I am open to the possibility I'm massively over estimating his ability to get over the lumps !
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • yorkshireraw
    yorkshireraw Posts: 1,632
    Dan Martin also currently on 2 different Monument wins.

    Possibly the best all-rounder (who you could see being up there to contend in all 5) is Greg Van Avermaet. But he'll possibly not even win 1.
    Kwiatkowski could challenge in all but PR you'd think. As noted, the issue is really about being able to finish them off, esp. MSR.

    Could new, climby focussed Geraint be in with a shout of Lombardy / LBL?
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,317
    Kwiatkowski has the physique to do that, but he might have already peaked in his career
    left the forum March 2023
  • deejay
    deejay Posts: 3,138
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    Kwiatkowski has the physique to do that, but he might have already peaked in his career
    I don't agree after the way he left Sagan to win the E3. ?
    `
    Organiser, National Championship 50 mile Time Trial 1972

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