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The Le Tour Thread: Spoliers

DonDaddyDDonDaddyD Posts: 12,689
edited July 2015 in Commuting chat
With poll

It's almost upon us chaps, the greatest sporting event involving shaved legs and two wheels. We are also in for a treat as well, four guys around their peak who are legitimate Grand Tour contenders and past Grand Tour winners.

So who is gonna win, Froome, Nibali, Contador or Quintana?

With poll, discuss.

Oh and discuss the Tour in general as well.

Who will the Le Tour de France 53 votes

Contador
15% 8 votes
Nibali
3% 2 votes
Quintana
24% 13 votes
Froome
56% 30 votes
Food Chain number = 4

A true scalp is not only overtaking someone but leaving them stopped at a set of lights. As you, who have clearly beaten the lights, pummels nothing but the open air ahead. ~ 'DondaddyD'. Player of the Unspoken Game
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  • DonDaddyDDonDaddyD Posts: 12,689
    I want to say Contador but he has the Giro in his legs and the past has shown us that Contador can win the Giro and Vuelta but never the Giro and Tour.

    Quintana is an unknown quantity to me.

    Nibali looks like he could contribute to breaking any of the other three but not someone who could outright win GV against the other three.

    Having watched Froome at this years Crit, it may be his to lose. He relies on his team too much and I can see Contador being unfazed by the Sky train.

    It gonna be one hell of a battle, I hope they all ride at the front and avoid injury this year.
    Food Chain number = 4

    A true scalp is not only overtaking someone but leaving them stopped at a set of lights. As you, who have clearly beaten the lights, pummels nothing but the open air ahead. ~ 'DondaddyD'. Player of the Unspoken Game
  • dhopedhope Posts: 6,699
    The Le Tour?

    Yeah, pedantic, I know
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  • itboffinitboffin Posts: 19,686
    judging by this mornings performance ...ME! 8)
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  • pblakeneypblakeney Posts: 12,671
    Having watched Froome at this years Crit, it may be his to lose. He relies on his team too much and I can see Contador being unfazed by the Sky train.

    Assuming that he can recover, then I see Contador merrily sitting on the Sky train and dropping Chris when it counts.
    Quintana could be the one to upset that.
    Or Nibali if the hills aren't too steep.
    Who have Amaury chosen the route for?
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  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 50,088 Lives Here
    Few journos have been making knowing nods & winks about Quintana, saying this could be the beginning of a long career dominating.
  • rubertoerubertoe Posts: 3,994
    [quote="[url=htt
    n making knowing nods & winks about Quintana, saying this could be the beginning of a long career dominating.[/quote]

    Providing he doesnt loose minutes on the cobbles.
    "If you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you've always got."

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  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 50,088 Lives Here
    He was alright at E3.
  • msmancuniamsmancunia Posts: 1,457
    Can someone get rid of that "the" or the "le" in the header? My pedant meter is going off the scale :roll:

    And I think it will be Quintana.
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  • BikequinBikequin Posts: 402
    Depends how much steak Contador has been eating in the run up.

    The lack of a decent individual time trial - and especially no TT in the last week will certainly play into Quintana's hands.

    Hopefully whatever happens its will tight going into the last two mountainous stages.
    You'll not see nothing like the mighty Quin.
  • LefthookLefthook Posts: 124
    I think Quintana is the only one good enough to drop Froome in the mountains, or stay with Froome's short accelerations and then attack him. Froome's attacks at the CdD did not seems to be pressed on. He accelerated and then others could ride back to him.

    Contador best tactic might be to just hang on to the Sky train and attack in the last few KM. But it almost seems to me that the less confident he feels the more aggressive he becomes. So maybe with the Giro in his legs and limited racing against the others he might get the team to ride hard on multiple mountain stages and attack early. Good TV.

    The time differences in the TTT could actually dictate the style of riding/attacks we see.

    I think hard to call between Quintana and Froome, and then Contador third but playing a role in cracking one of the others.
  • DonDaddyDDonDaddyD Posts: 12,689
    Can someone get rid of that "the" or the "le" in the header? My pedant meter is going off the scale :roll:

    .
    You do realise its deliberate - continuing a tradition...
    Food Chain number = 4

    A true scalp is not only overtaking someone but leaving them stopped at a set of lights. As you, who have clearly beaten the lights, pummels nothing but the open air ahead. ~ 'DondaddyD'. Player of the Unspoken Game
  • veronese68veronese68 Posts: 22,789 Lives Here
    Can someone get rid of that "the" or the "le" in the header? My pedant meter is going off the scale :roll:
    I'm glad you and Dhope mentioned it. I could probably do it but I think DDD should fix it himself as punishment. ;-)
    To answer the original question, I have no idea.
  • dhopedhope Posts: 6,699
    Can someone get rid of that "the" or the "le" in the header? My pedant meter is going off the scale :roll:

    .
    You do realise its deliberate - continuing a tradition...
    That's the spoliers thread
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  • DonDaddyDDonDaddyD Posts: 12,689
    Updated the title.

    I am also looking forward to the young rider Jersey battle. Simon Yates for the win or his brother.
    Food Chain number = 4

    A true scalp is not only overtaking someone but leaving them stopped at a set of lights. As you, who have clearly beaten the lights, pummels nothing but the open air ahead. ~ 'DondaddyD'. Player of the Unspoken Game
  • Ian.BIan.B Posts: 732
    Can someone get rid of that "the" or the "le" in the header? My pedant meter is going off the scale :roll:

    .
    You do realise its deliberate - continuing a tradition...
    That's the spoliers thread

    Indeed. Spoliers.

    Are we arguing about the first "The Le" or the second "the Le", or both? The first reads OK to me (though could possibly be improved with quotes: The 'Le Tour' thread), the second doesn't.
  • veronese68veronese68 Posts: 22,789 Lives Here
    Updated the title.
    Thank you. I think me forgetting and being irritated by the title is also becoming a tradition. :oops:
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 15,297
    Never ceases to amaze me how underrated Nibali is a GT rider/winner.
    One of only 6 riders to have won all 3 GTs and on the podium for 7 of 8 GT starts since 2009
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  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 50,088 Lives Here
    Never ceases to amaze me how underrated Nibali is a GT rider/winner.
    One of only 6 riders to have won all 3 GTs and on the podium for 7 of 8 GT starts since 2009

    Doesn't have a good record beating the other 3 a pedale (or whatever the phrase is - i.e. wheel to wheel.)
  • I just hope they all stay upright and we have a race between them over the whole 3 weeks.

    I see:
    - Valverde in Yellow after the Muur De Huy
    - Nibali taking it after the cobbles and extending his lead after the TTT
    - Froome to take it in the mountains after epic battles with Quintana and to a lessor extent Contador. I don't think Nibali can stay with the other 3 when the pace is on in a mountain.
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  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 50,088 Lives Here
    Think it's fairly unlikely we'll have a 4 way race by the time we get to the first rest day.

    Week 1 is far too tricky/dangerous.

    Tricky week one, boring week two, tough week three.
  • First.AspectFirst.Aspect Posts: 4,318
    Can someone get rid of that "the" or the "le" in the header? My pedant meter is going off the scale :roll:

    And I think it will be Quintana.
    Would you be happy with: The "Le Tour" Thread?
  • timothywtimothyw Posts: 2,482
    edited June 2015
    Seeing as I'm the only one that has backed Nibali, I suppose I ought try and justify it.

    Nibali is a very canny racer - before Froome and Contador crashed out of the tour last year, he'd already built up a considerable margin on them, and seeing his climbing form last year I honestly don't think they'd have been able to overhaul him - he was streets ahead of the remaining riders. With time bonuses back in the tour this year, I think that will also play to his strengths.

    Admittedly, he didn't look strong in the Dauphine, but it was much the same story last year - he came into the Tour having underperformed for months, then found a completely different level at the tour.

    Contador could pull it off, but it remains to be seen what effect riding the Giro will have had - the whole Giro was ridden at a ferocious pace, and he had a couple of bad days - if that happens at the tour, I'm sure one of the others will punish him for it where Aru was unable.

    Froome looks to be in decent form, but he's not so fabulously strong as he was in 2012/13. Although he won the Dauphine, it's fair to point out that it was only with some difficulty that he managed to drop Tejay Van Garderen - he'll need something a bit more special to get Contador/Quintana off his wheel!

    Quintana is somewhat the unknown factor for me, I haven't actually watched him race since his Giro victory last year - I'm looking forward to see what he can do. Obviously the lack of TT stages plays into his hands.
  • pblakeneypblakeney Posts: 12,671
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 50,088 Lives Here

    Quintana is somewhat the unknown factor for me, I haven't actually watched him race since his Giro victory last year - I'm looking forward to see what he can do. Obviously the lack of TT stages plays into his hands.

    Matched Contador on the Port de Bales today.

    Lost a few seconds on the descent and never made it back up.

    Looks there or there about form wise - as does Contador.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 50,088 Lives Here
    Seeing as I'm the only one that has backed Nibali, I suppose I ought try and justify it.

    & other pro Nibali stuff
    .

    When was the last time Nibali beat any of the other big 3 wheel-to-wheel?
  • pollys_bottpollys_bott Posts: 981
    TimothyW[/url]"]Seeing as I'm the only one that has backed Nibali, I suppose I ought try and justify it.

    & other pro Nibali stuff
    .

    When was the last time Nibali beat any of the other big 3 wheel-to-wheel?

    Yes, fair shout...

    2011 - third in Giro behind Contador who's then busted for bovine supplements so promoted to second
    seventh in Vuelta behind Froome
    2012 - third in Tour behind Froome
    Moves to Astana...
    2013 - won Giro, 2nd in Vuelta to Chris Horner
    2014 - won Tour, (Froome & Contador crash out).

    FWIW if he's on the same form as last year then I think he'll win it. Froome just hasn't been the same since winning in 2013, although there were flashes of old at the Dauphine. Contador has the Giro in his legs (but who knows what else?) Quintana clearly has the climbing pedigree, he's the joker in the pack.
    I like Nibali's racing attitude and style, like Contador he's not afraid to rip it up and attack. However the ease with which he was climbing last year didn't fill me with confidence, far too reminiscent of Basso in the 2005(?) Giro, Landis' ride to Morzine in 2006 and Contador's 2011 Giro. Throw in all the [email protected] around Astana over the last year and it's hard to look at his performances in a non-cynical light... :?
  • First.AspectFirst.Aspect Posts: 4,318
    Admittedly, he didn't look strong in the Dauphine, but it was much the same story last year - he came into the Tour having underperformed for months, then found a completely different level at the tour.
    :?

    #Astana
  • TimothyW[/url]"]Seeing as I'm the only one that has backed Nibali, I suppose I ought try and justify it.

    & other pro Nibali stuff
    .

    When was the last time Nibali beat any of the other big 3 wheel-to-wheel?

    Yes, fair shout...

    2011 - third in Giro behind Contador who's then busted for bovine supplements so promoted to second
    seventh in Vuelta behind Froome
    2012 - third in Tour behind Froome
    Moves to Astana...
    2013 - won Giro, 2nd in Vuelta to Chris Horner
    2014 - won Tour, (Froome & Contador crash out).

    FWIW if he's on the same form as last year then I think he'll win it. Froome just hasn't been the same since winning in 2013, although there were flashes of old at the Dauphine. Contador has the Giro in his legs (but who knows what else?) Quintana clearly has the climbing pedigree, he's the joker in the pack.
    I like Nibali's racing attitude and style, like Contador he's not afraid to rip it up and attack. However the ease with which he was climbing last year didn't fill me with confidence, far too reminiscent of Basso in the 2005(?) Giro, Landis' ride to Morzine in 2006 and Contador's 2011 Giro. Throw in all the [email protected] around Astana over the last year and it's hard to look at his performances in a non-cynical light... :?

    Antoine Vayer posted pretty much the same summary
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  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 50,088 Lives Here
    Nah it wasn't - not if you look at the competition.

    And tbh if Vayer says it you know it's BS.

    I can't remember a TT or mtf which nibs has won when any of the other 3 have been present.

    He's a smart rider, good bike handler, and mentally strong, but the legs aren't quite as good....
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 15,297
    Think it's fairly unlikely we'll have a 4 way race by the time we get to the first rest day.

    Week 1 is far too tricky/dangerous.


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    Believe that a farther shore
    Is reachable from here.
    Believe in miracles
    And cures and healing wells
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