is Porte a GT man?

jam1e

I think it's too early to say what potential he has as a GC contender in his own right rather than as a domestique - on the back of this Giro there's nothing to suggest he isn't. Sitting pretty right up until he loses a bucketload of time in a fairly unexpected penalty situation and then injures himself the day before the TT in which he was expecting to either gain time on the leader or, worse case scenario, consolidate a podium position.

So now he's bloody miles down mostly as a result of bad luck, has a knackered leg and absolutely no motivation to go through the motions. I can imagine a time in the future when Porte's leading the Giro by a country mile, gets struck down by a stray meteorite on the final stage and the same old people come out with "well I knew he didn't have it in him..."

If he'd been comprehensively dropped towards the end of the race then there may be something in it but at the minute there's nothing.

Prone to injury - no worse than anyone else as far as I can see.
Prone to illness - he was ill last year, does that make him prone?
Mental weakness - not sure this is based on anything, certainly I've never considered it to be the case and there are a few cases where the opposite could be argued to be the case.

ugo.santalucia

jam1e wrote:

I think it's too early to say what potential he has as a GC contender in his own right rather than as a domestique - on the back of this Giro there's nothing to suggest he isn't. Sitting pretty right up until he loses a bucketload of time in a fairly unexpected penalty situation and then injures himself the day before the TT in which he was expecting to either gain time on the leader or, worse case scenario, consolidate a podium position.

So now he's bloody miles down mostly as a result of bad luck, has a knackered leg and absolutely no motivation to go through the motions. I can imagine a time in the future when Porte's leading the Giro by a country mile, gets struck down by a stray meteorite on the final stage and the same old people come out with "well I knew he didn't have it in him..."

If he'd been comprehensively dropped towards the end of the race then there may be something in it but at the minute there's nothing.

Prone to injury - no worse than anyone else as far as I can see.
Prone to illness - he was ill last year, does that make him prone?
Mental weakness - not sure this is based on anything, certainly I've never considered it to be the case and there are a few cases where the opposite could be argued to be the case.

The thing is if you have not proved to be a contender by the age of 30, nobody will commit a decent team to support you... so he might end up captain in a crap team and have no chance of winning because of that or he might end up lieutenant to some better rider in a decent team. Either way, I don't think he will have another chance as good as this one.

Everything points in the direction of him being a safe bet for short stage races, where he can be a force to reckon with.

As for GT: 2011 was poor, 2012 was poor... 2013 was decent, considering he was helping Froome... 2014 was a big disappointment, given he was given a chance by luck and 2015 has been a complete and utter disappointment... worth insisting?

I'd say no

DeVlaeminck

jam1e wrote:

I think it's too early to say what potential he has as a GC contender in his own right rather than as a domestique - on the back of this Giro there's nothing to suggest he isn't. Sitting pretty right up until he loses a bucketload of time in a fairly unexpected penalty situation and then injures himself the day before the TT in which he was expecting to either gain time on the leader or, worse case scenario, consolidate a podium position.

So now he's bloody miles down mostly as a result of bad luck, has a knackered leg and absolutely no motivation to go through the motions. I can imagine a time in the future when Porte's leading the Giro by a country mile, gets struck down by a stray meteorite on the final stage and the same old people come out with "well I knew he didn't have it in him..."

If he'd been comprehensively dropped towards the end of the race then there may be something in it but at the minute there's nothing.

Prone to injury - no worse than anyone else as far as I can see.
Prone to illness - he was ill last year, does that make him prone?
Mental weakness - not sure this is based on anything, certainly I've never considered it to be the case and there are a few cases where the opposite could be argued to be the case.

In which case why is his record as a Gc man so abysmal for a rider with aspirations to lead a major team in a grand tour?

jam1e

What is his record as a "GC man"?

Surprise field promotion from domestique to team leader in TDF 2014 - ill.
2015 Giro - unexpected time penalty then caught in a crash not of his making.

That's it for his "GC man" aspirations - 1.5 attempts. Every other GT he was riding as domestique.

DeVlaeminck

jam1e wrote:

What is his record as a "GC man"?

Surprise field promotion from domestique to team leader in TDF 2014 - ill.
2015 Giro - unexpected time penalty then caught in a crash not of his making.

That's it for his "GC man" aspirations - 1.5 attempts. Every other GT he was riding as domestique.

OK so maybe he is still uproven rather than proven failure buthe has had other chances.

2010 Giro he was in pink midway through the race after getting in that break and couldn't hold on to it so you can add that in, think he finished 7th. He would have led in the 2014 Giro but was withdrawn due to lack of form so that's another opportunity gone.

He's also 30 years old so had plenty of time to force his way into a leadership role and had offers from Orica which he turned down. I do think it's possible he could still win a Vuelta or Giro I just don't think he has the credentials to lead a major team. If I ran a major team and he phoned me up asking about the chance of him joining as a Grand Tour leader I'd be wondering why his best finish is a somewhat fortunate 7th.

phreak

DeVlaeminck wrote:

jam1e wrote:

What is his record as a "GC man"?

Surprise field promotion from domestique to team leader in TDF 2014 - ill.
2015 Giro - unexpected time penalty then caught in a crash not of his making.

That's it for his "GC man" aspirations - 1.5 attempts. Every other GT he was riding as domestique.

OK so maybe he is still uproven rather than proven failure buthe has had other chances.

2010 Giro he was in pink midway through the race after getting in that break and couldn't hold on to it so you can add that in, think he finished 7th. He would have led in the 2014 Giro but was withdrawn due to lack of form so that's another opportunity gone.

He's also 30 years old so had plenty of time to force his way into a leadership role and had offers from Orica which he turned down. I do think it's possible he could still win a Vuelta or Giro I just don't think he has the credentials to lead a major team. If I ran a major team and he phoned me up asking about the chance of him joining as a Grand Tour leader I'd be wondering why his best finish is a somewhat fortunate 7th.

Which was a lot higher than Wiggins at the time. Another rider who didn't really challenge for GTs until his 30s.

DeVlaeminck

Wiggins is hardly typical but he did have a 4th (upgraded to third) in the Tour by the time he was Porte's age,so even a late starter like Wiggins had already staked his claim. A good example though, Wiggins didn't get leadership of a grand tour team until he demonstrated he deserved it, remember he didn't come into that Tour as Garmin team leader, Even as a domestique Porte could have done more to force the issue as Froome did riding in support of Wiggins.

I've said it's possible Porte could win a GT but there isn't enough to suggest he will to merit team leadership at Sky.