BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

briantrumpet

rick_chasey said:

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/1320629426858721281?s=21

🙌🏻

"Not disastrous" = good news

rick_chasey

It’s a good article actually.

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

It’s a good article actually.

Thanks for the in depth review

TheBigBean

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

It’s a good article actually.

Thanks for the in depth review

Probably this bit

There are also questions over banks’ longer-term commitment to a Britainless EU. They are being forced to relocate business against their will. “Allocating more capital to the euro zone right now feels odd, what with negative interest rates and an undynamic economy,” says a senior City figure. It does not help that the EU27’s share of global banking, insurance and capital-markets activity has been falling since before the global financial crisis: from 20% in 2006 to 13%, while America’s share has remained stable at around 40% and Asia’s has jumped from 18% to 28%. “Anyone for a market that’s relatively small in global terms, shrinking and inefficient?” asks another banker, acerbically.

rjsterry

I'm not sure if this is meant as a joke or not. So difficult to tell these days.

https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1320449587434397698?s=19

rjsterry

Well this tells a story.

https://twitter.com/NvOndarza/status/1320632828908998657?s=19

surrey_commuter

rjsterry said:

Well this tells a story.

https://twitter.com/NvOndarza/status/1320632828908998657?s=19

I of course have no idea who Nicolai is and feel nervous about stating the obvious when he could be a Harvard professor specialising in international trade

surrey_commuter

TheBigBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

It’s a good article actually.

Thanks for the in depth review

Probably this bit

There are also questions over banks’ longer-term commitment to a Britainless EU. They are being forced to relocate business against their will. “Allocating more capital to the euro zone right now feels odd, what with negative interest rates and an undynamic economy,” says a senior City figure. It does not help that the EU27’s share of global banking, insurance and capital-markets activity has been falling since before the global financial crisis: from 20% in 2006 to 13%, while America’s share has remained stable at around 40% and Asia’s has jumped from 18% to 28%. “Anyone for a market that’s relatively small in global terms, shrinking and inefficient?” asks another banker, acerbically.

Would you be so kind as to explain to a thicko what the negative impact on the UK economy of trillions of $ of bank capital being shifted out of London.

TheBigBean

surrey_commuter said:

TheBigBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

It’s a good article actually.

Thanks for the in depth review

Probably this bit

There are also questions over banks’ longer-term commitment to a Britainless EU. They are being forced to relocate business against their will. “Allocating more capital to the euro zone right now feels odd, what with negative interest rates and an undynamic economy,” says a senior City figure. It does not help that the EU27’s share of global banking, insurance and capital-markets activity has been falling since before the global financial crisis: from 20% in 2006 to 13%, while America’s share has remained stable at around 40% and Asia’s has jumped from 18% to 28%. “Anyone for a market that’s relatively small in global terms, shrinking and inefficient?” asks another banker, acerbically.

Would you be so kind as to explain to a thicko what the negative impact on the UK economy of trillions of $ of bank capital being shifted out of London.

It will probably change where profit is recognised, so less tax in the UK. Not an expert though.

surrey_commuter

TheBigBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

TheBigBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

It’s a good article actually.

Thanks for the in depth review

Probably this bit

There are also questions over banks’ longer-term commitment to a Britainless EU. They are being forced to relocate business against their will. “Allocating more capital to the euro zone right now feels odd, what with negative interest rates and an undynamic economy,” says a senior City figure. It does not help that the EU27’s share of global banking, insurance and capital-markets activity has been falling since before the global financial crisis: from 20% in 2006 to 13%, while America’s share has remained stable at around 40% and Asia’s has jumped from 18% to 28%. “Anyone for a market that’s relatively small in global terms, shrinking and inefficient?” asks another banker, acerbically.

Would you be so kind as to explain to a thicko what the negative impact on the UK economy of trillions of $ of bank capital being shifted out of London.

It will probably change where profit is recognised, so less tax in the UK. Not an expert though.

Thanks

Stevo_666

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/1320629426858721281?s=21

🙌🏻

"Not disastrous" = good news

Basically the minimum necessary, as I said some time ago. A far cry from the mass exodus many were hoping for on here.

Just one of the large banks cut many times that number of jobs over the last few years for totally non- Brexit reasons, to put this into perspective. But nobody is moaning about that.

Stevo_666

TheBigBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

It’s a good article actually.

Thanks for the in depth review

Probably this bit

There are also questions over banks’ longer-term commitment to a Britainless EU. They are being forced to relocate business against their will. “Allocating more capital to the euro zone right now feels odd, what with negative interest rates and an undynamic economy,” says a senior City figure. It does not help that the EU27’s share of global banking, insurance and capital-markets activity has been falling since before the global financial crisis: from 20% in 2006 to 13%, while America’s share has remained stable at around 40% and Asia’s has jumped from 18% to 28%. “Anyone for a market that’s relatively small in global terms, shrinking and inefficient?” asks another banker, acerbically.

A timely reminder of London's status as a global financial centre rather than just a European financial centre.

Stevo_666

Looks like Macron is one of the last remaining obstacles to a deal. He's holding out for the sake of French fishermen, apparently:
https://telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/25/macron-vows-scupper-brexit-deal-sacrifices-french-fishermen/

Stevo_666

briantrumpet said:

surrey_commuter said:

briantrumpet said:

Post a comment saying it is about sovereignty and was never about economics. Obviously interspersed with, bed wetting, traitor, embarrassed, nappy and end with fvck off and live in Brussels

Weird, after criticism of posting stuff from the leftie Guardian, post something by one of the chief writers from The Telegraph, and it gets no comment at all about whingeing, or any of the other things the 'losers' are accused of.

Unfortunately my late mum's subscription to The Telegraph seems to have run out (well, I got three months extra), and I can't find this piece on Pressreader. Maybe @Stevo_666 will be able to help us out to see the whinge.

Since you asked nicely Brian, here's a few snippets:

"One of the most powerful arguments for Brexit was that the UK economy, after years of lacklustre performance and stagnant living standards, needs the shock therapy of departure from the EU to restructure and rebalance for the 21st century.

There has been very little appreciation in Europe of the sort of economic dynamism we are seeing in other parts of the world; to properly plug into it, and rejuvenate the economy accordingly, we needed to cast off.

It’s no-one’s fault in particular, but unfortunately we could scarcely have chosen a worse moment for doing so. At a time when as a nation we need to be reducing the tax and regulatory burden, and finally ridding ourselves of the debilitating dependency culture of recent decades, Covid has conspired to put us on an entirely different path, with much of the economy now seemingly dependent on state handouts."

"The collective psychology of the nation is, I fear, going in exactly the wrong direction to meet challenges as big as those of Brexit, or to exploit its supposed “opportunities”. The great irony is that despite our imminent divorce, we look more like France every day. Singapore on Thames, Tyne, Mersey or wherever, is most assuredly not the direction of travel."

"Elsewhere, a Biden victory in US presidential elections threatens to make a meaningful US trade deal very much more difficult than it perhaps would be under Trump, who as we know has a soft spot for Brexit Britain and seemed willing to cut some slack in reaching a satisfactory arrangement."

"As for China itself, a potentially vast internal market and the only major economy in the world to have returned to decent levels of growth, could there ever have been less appropriate time to declare the place persona non grata?"

rjsterry

surrey_commuter said:

rjsterry said:

Well this tells a story.

https://twitter.com/NvOndarza/status/1320632828908998657?s=19

I of course have no idea who Nicolai is and feel nervous about stating the obvious when he could be a Harvard professor specialising in international trade

Here you go. https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/scientist-detail/nicolai-von-ondarza/

Original source of the data is the CIA World Facebook according to the video https://youtu.be/5aloAQAAzTo

Figures are for goods only.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

It’s a good article actually.

Thanks for the in depth review

Probably this bit

There are also questions over banks’ longer-term commitment to a Britainless EU. They are being forced to relocate business against their will. “Allocating more capital to the euro zone right now feels odd, what with negative interest rates and an undynamic economy,” says a senior City figure. It does not help that the EU27’s share of global banking, insurance and capital-markets activity has been falling since before the global financial crisis: from 20% in 2006 to 13%, while America’s share has remained stable at around 40% and Asia’s has jumped from 18% to 28%. “Anyone for a market that’s relatively small in global terms, shrinking and inefficient?” asks another banker, acerbically.

Weird bit to pick out but ok

surrey_commuter

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

rjsterry said:

Well this tells a story.

https://twitter.com/NvOndarza/status/1320632828908998657?s=19

I of course have no idea who Nicolai is and feel nervous about stating the obvious when he could be a Harvard professor specialising in international trade

Here you go. https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/scientist-detail/nicolai-von-ondarza/

Original source of the data is the CIA World Facebook according to the video https://youtu.be/5aloAQAAzTo

Figures are for goods only.

I think he is being naughty as exchange rates will account for most of that drop

Stevo_666

surrey_commuter said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

rjsterry said:

Well this tells a story.

https://twitter.com/NvOndarza/status/1320632828908998657?s=19

I of course have no idea who Nicolai is and feel nervous about stating the obvious when he could be a Harvard professor specialising in international trade

Here you go. https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/scientist-detail/nicolai-von-ondarza/

Original source of the data is the CIA World Facebook according to the video https://youtu.be/5aloAQAAzTo

Figures are for goods only.

I think he is being naughty as exchange rates will account for most of that drop

It also excludes exports of services which is quite a large item for the UK.

rjsterry

Sure. FWIW, I don't think the story was "look at the impact on the UK while everyone else carries on as normal". The acceleration of other manufacturing nations is what I noticed.

darkhairedlord

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

rjsterry said:

Well this tells a story.

https://twitter.com/NvOndarza/status/1320632828908998657?s=19

I of course have no idea who Nicolai is and feel nervous about stating the obvious when he could be a Harvard professor specialising in international trade

Here you go. https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/scientist-detail/nicolai-von-ondarza/

Original source of the data is the CIA World Facebook according to the video https://youtu.be/5aloAQAAzTo

Figures are for goods only.

I think he is being naughty as exchange rates will account for most of that drop

It also excludes exports of services which is quite a large item for the UK.

services the equivalent of "hold my bag for me"

Stevo_666

darkhairedlord said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

rjsterry said:

Well this tells a story.

https://twitter.com/NvOndarza/status/1320632828908998657?s=19

I of course have no idea who Nicolai is and feel nervous about stating the obvious when he could be a Harvard professor specialising in international trade

Here you go. https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/scientist-detail/nicolai-von-ondarza/

Original source of the data is the CIA World Facebook according to the video https://youtu.be/5aloAQAAzTo

Figures are for goods only.

I think he is being naughty as exchange rates will account for most of that drop

It also excludes exports of services which is quite a large item for the UK.

services the equivalent of "hold my bag for me"

You'll have to explain that one.

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

Sure. FWIW, I don't think the story was "look at the impact on the UK while everyone else carries on as normal". The acceleration of other manufacturing nations is what I noticed.

£1 of services exports are worth the same as £1 of goods exports, so not sure why they are slicing it up like that rather than looking at the totals.

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Sure. FWIW, I don't think the story was "look at the impact on the UK while everyone else carries on as normal". The acceleration of other manufacturing nations is what I noticed.

£1 of services exports are worth the same as £1 of goods exports, so not sure why they are slicing it up like that rather than looking at the totals.

I would guess they were trying to say something about manufacturing. As I said, the data was originally from the CIA.

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Sure. FWIW, I don't think the story was "look at the impact on the UK while everyone else carries on as normal". The acceleration of other manufacturing nations is what I noticed.

£1 of services exports are worth the same as £1 of goods exports, so not sure why they are slicing it up like that rather than looking at the totals.

I would guess they were trying to say something about manufacturing. As I said, the data was originally from the CIA.

Maybe, but for an economy that is strong in services like the UK, that could paint a rather unfavourable picture compared to those that are more centred on manufacturing. Wonder why he didn't do a services version?

rick_chasey

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Sure. FWIW, I don't think the story was "look at the impact on the UK while everyone else carries on as normal". The acceleration of other manufacturing nations is what I noticed.

£1 of services exports are worth the same as £1 of goods exports, so not sure why they are slicing it up like that rather than looking at the totals.

I would guess they were trying to say something about manufacturing. As I said, the data was originally from the CIA.

Maybe, but for an economy that is strong in services like the UK, that could paint a rather unfavourable picture compared to those that are more centred on manufacturing. Wonder why he didn't do a services version?

Are you now sealioning professional researchers?

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Sure. FWIW, I don't think the story was "look at the impact on the UK while everyone else carries on as normal". The acceleration of other manufacturing nations is what I noticed.

£1 of services exports are worth the same as £1 of goods exports, so not sure why they are slicing it up like that rather than looking at the totals.

I would guess they were trying to say something about manufacturing. As I said, the data was originally from the CIA.

Maybe, but for an economy that is strong in services like the UK, that could paint a rather unfavourable picture compared to those that are more centred on manufacturing. Wonder why he didn't do a services version?

Because he was making a point about manufacturing, not worrying about whether it painted unfavourable pictures for this or that country. Feel free to search for a comparable animation for services.

TheBigBean

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Sure. FWIW, I don't think the story was "look at the impact on the UK while everyone else carries on as normal". The acceleration of other manufacturing nations is what I noticed.

£1 of services exports are worth the same as £1 of goods exports, so not sure why they are slicing it up like that rather than looking at the totals.

I would guess they were trying to say something about manufacturing. As I said, the data was originally from the CIA.

Maybe, but for an economy that is strong in services like the UK, that could paint a rather unfavourable picture compared to those that are more centred on manufacturing. Wonder why he didn't do a services version?

Because he was making a point about manufacturing, not worrying about whether it painted unfavourable pictures for this or that country. Feel free to search for a comparable animation for services.

Do you feel you provide a service or manufacture something? I would expect it to be the former, but think the latter would be reasonable.

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Sure. FWIW, I don't think the story was "look at the impact on the UK while everyone else carries on as normal". The acceleration of other manufacturing nations is what I noticed.

£1 of services exports are worth the same as £1 of goods exports, so not sure why they are slicing it up like that rather than looking at the totals.

I would guess they were trying to say something about manufacturing. As I said, the data was originally from the CIA.

Maybe, but for an economy that is strong in services like the UK, that could paint a rather unfavourable picture compared to those that are more centred on manufacturing. Wonder why he didn't do a services version?

Because he was making a point about manufacturing, not worrying about whether it painted unfavourable pictures for this or that country. Feel free to search for a comparable animation for services.

I

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Sure. FWIW, I don't think the story was "look at the impact on the UK while everyone else carries on as normal". The acceleration of other manufacturing nations is what I noticed.

£1 of services exports are worth the same as £1 of goods exports, so not sure why they are slicing it up like that rather than looking at the totals.

I would guess they were trying to say something about manufacturing. As I said, the data was originally from the CIA.

Maybe, but for an economy that is strong in services like the UK, that could paint a rather unfavourable picture compared to those that are more centred on manufacturing. Wonder why he didn't do a services version?

Because he was making a point about manufacturing, not worrying about whether it painted unfavourable pictures for this or that country. Feel free to search for a comparable animation for services.

Can't be bothered. Just questioning the motives that's all.

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Sure. FWIW, I don't think the story was "look at the impact on the UK while everyone else carries on as normal". The acceleration of other manufacturing nations is what I noticed.

£1 of services exports are worth the same as £1 of goods exports, so not sure why they are slicing it up like that rather than looking at the totals.

I would guess they were trying to say something about manufacturing. As I said, the data was originally from the CIA.

Maybe, but for an economy that is strong in services like the UK, that could paint a rather unfavourable picture compared to those that are more centred on manufacturing. Wonder why he didn't do a services version?

Are you now sealioning professional researchers?

You think I've contacted the bloke to ask him? You really need to think things through sometimes before jumping in with stuff like that.

briantrumpet

Stevo_666 said:

Since you asked nicely Brian, here's a few snippets:

Thanks Stevo.