BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,642
    EGhejFYXUAMnDf9.png:large
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 18,941
    TheBigBean wrote:
    EGhejFYXUAMnDf9.png:large


    "potential to strengthen bi lateral relations, including on Northern Ireland"

    That's a phrase worth keeping an eye on
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • Alejandrosdog
    Alejandrosdog Posts: 1,975
    Rolf F wrote:
    Alejandrosdog wrote:
    Britain is great we just need self belief and pride.

    And grammar.

    But more importantly, how does standing in the corner with your back to everyone and sulking equate to self belief and pride? How does sucking up to the Orange Shitgibbon equate to self belief and pride? How does ceasing to have a huge influence across the whole of the EU equate to self belief and pride?

    Just saying "Britain is great" doesn't mean it is - it has to be backed up by actions and behaviours. We seem to be pretty dismal at both right now.

    Standing up and facing everyone else reflects self belief. working with people with pride and self belief. these are all possible outside of the EU. The wailing cowering of the liberal minded lacks conviction. Not everyone can be a winner.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 18,941
    Denis Staunton
    @denisstaunton
    Irish side believes Varadkar/Johnson meeting has produced the basis for renewed negotiations between UK and EU. A tunnel could be in sight.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • veronese68
    veronese68 Posts: 27,329
    Alejandrosdog wrote:
    Veronese68 wrote:
    Alejandrosdog wrote:
    today I came home to find an EU citizen rifling my draws in my bedroom. Apparently there is a limit to my physical response.

    The sooner these immigrant scum are kicked out the better
    Too right, good job there are no British burglars.
    Tw@!

    Britain hating fool
    Far from it, there's a lot to like about Britain. I am undoubtedly a fool though.
    Kinesis Pro6
    Marin Nail Trail
    Cotic Solaris
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 18,941
    lisa o'carroll
    @lisaocarroll
    ·
    2m
    BREAKING: Leo Varadkar says "it is possible for us to come" to a "treaty" agreement "by the end of October.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Phillip Hammond has for some reason waited two years or more to point out the obvious fallacy behind the claim that the right to set our own trade policy will deliver some huge advantage.

    Benefit from all significant new trade deals +0.5% GDP. Loss from leaving CU for 'Canada minus' FTA -4 to -7%% GDP.

    Better late than never, I suppose.
    Over what period is that?

    By 2030. Figures from Treasury and NIESR, I believe. More details on Peter Foster's twitter feed and interview with PH in the Telegraph.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/pmdfoster/st ... 0741114881

    Ah, the fake 2030 numbers again. Osborne was using false 2030 predictions for his negative view back in 2016!
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 27,697
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Phillip Hammond has for some reason waited two years or more to point out the obvious fallacy behind the claim that the right to set our own trade policy will deliver some huge advantage.

    Benefit from all significant new trade deals +0.5% GDP. Loss from leaving CU for 'Canada minus' FTA -4 to -7%% GDP.

    Better late than never, I suppose.
    Over what period is that?

    By 2030. Figures from Treasury and NIESR, I believe. More details on Peter Foster's twitter feed and interview with PH in the Telegraph.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/pmdfoster/st ... 0741114881

    Ah, the fake 2030 numbers again. Osborne was using false 2030 predictions for his negative view back in 2016!
    If they are 'fake' you must have some idea what the 'real' numbers are. What GDP growth do you think is achievable from new trade deals?
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • veronese68
    veronese68 Posts: 27,329
    edited October 2019
    rjsterry wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    Fake news
    ...you must have some idea...
    I’m looking forward to this.
    Kinesis Pro6
    Marin Nail Trail
    Cotic Solaris
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 27,697
    Don't spoil it.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 25,803
    Imposter wrote:
    Alejandrosdog wrote:
    Britain is great we just need self belief and pride.

    Won't be long before you're advocating 'Strength through joy'...
    ... and 'work will set you free'...
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,549
    TailWindHome wrote:
    Denis Staunton
    @denisstaunton
    Irish side believes Varadkar/Johnson meeting has produced the basis for renewed negotiations between UK and EU. A tunnel could be in sight.
    There has certainly been an upward movement in the exchange rates on the back of this.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    rjsterry wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Phillip Hammond has for some reason waited two years or more to point out the obvious fallacy behind the claim that the right to set our own trade policy will deliver some huge advantage.

    Benefit from all significant new trade deals +0.5% GDP. Loss from leaving CU for 'Canada minus' FTA -4 to -7%% GDP.

    Better late than never, I suppose.
    Over what period is that?

    By 2030. Figures from Treasury and NIESR, I believe. More details on Peter Foster's twitter feed and interview with PH in the Telegraph.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/pmdfoster/st ... 0741114881

    Ah, the fake 2030 numbers again. Osborne was using false 2030 predictions for his negative view back in 2016!
    If they are 'fake' you must have some idea what the 'real' numbers are. What GDP growth do you think is achievable from new trade deals?

    If we are focusing solely on gdp then heaven help us. There is currently a fairly last protest going on where they are questioning our current economic model. Maybe being outside the eu will allow us a bit more flexibility in this large shift.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 27,697
    john80 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Phillip Hammond has for some reason waited two years or more to point out the obvious fallacy behind the claim that the right to set our own trade policy will deliver some huge advantage.

    Benefit from all significant new trade deals +0.5% GDP. Loss from leaving CU for 'Canada minus' FTA -4 to -7%% GDP.

    Better late than never, I suppose.
    Over what period is that?

    By 2030. Figures from Treasury and NIESR, I believe. More details on Peter Foster's twitter feed and interview with PH in the Telegraph.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/pmdfoster/st ... 0741114881

    Ah, the fake 2030 numbers again. Osborne was using false 2030 predictions for his negative view back in 2016!
    If they are 'fake' you must have some idea what the 'real' numbers are. What GDP growth do you think is achievable from new trade deals?

    If we are focusing solely on gdp then heaven help us. There is currently a fairly last protest going on where they are questioning our current economic model. Maybe being outside the eu will allow us a bit more flexibility in this large shift.

    Clearly it's only part of the picture, but if the argument is being put forward that we can't possibly be 'shackled' to the Customs Union because it is somehow holding us back, then I think that needs challenging. If someone said it's not holding us back but we just want to be able to do things our way, and that will come at a cost, then fine.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • PhilipPirrip
    PhilipPirrip Posts: 616
    PBlakeney wrote:
    Imposter wrote:
    Alejandrosdog wrote:
    Britain is great we just need self belief and pride.

    Won't be long before you're advocating 'Strength through joy'...
    ... and 'work will set you free'...
    Invoke the Nazis? Surely they'd never stoop that low.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 17,928
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    TailWindHome wrote:
    Denis Staunton
    @denisstaunton
    Irish side believes Varadkar/Johnson meeting has produced the basis for renewed negotiations between UK and EU. A tunnel could be in sight.
    There has certainly been an upward movement in the exchange rates on the back of this.
    I'm not going to go buying lots of Euros for a while yet. My 1.16 a while ago wasn't too bad a choice, in retrospect... unlike not buying a load at 1.40ish.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    rjsterry wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Phillip Hammond has for some reason waited two years or more to point out the obvious fallacy behind the claim that the right to set our own trade policy will deliver some huge advantage.

    Benefit from all significant new trade deals +0.5% GDP. Loss from leaving CU for 'Canada minus' FTA -4 to -7%% GDP.

    Better late than never, I suppose.
    Over what period is that?

    By 2030. Figures from Treasury and NIESR, I believe. More details on Peter Foster's twitter feed and interview with PH in the Telegraph.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/pmdfoster/st ... 0741114881

    Ah, the fake 2030 numbers again. Osborne was using false 2030 predictions for his negative view back in 2016!
    If they are 'fake' you must have some idea what the 'real' numbers are. What GDP growth do you think is achievable from new trade deals?

    They are fake because they are unable to predict 11 years into the future. If they made a prediction for 2020 today, their prediction would be wrong. And that is not taking into account the remain bias to the fake prediction covering the next 11 years.

    These predictions have the same credibility as astrology.

    I'm just glad Hammond is no longer at the tiller and him not being there can only be positive for the UK in the long term.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,866
    rjsterry wrote:
    john80 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Phillip Hammond has for some reason waited two years or more to point out the obvious fallacy behind the claim that the right to set our own trade policy will deliver some huge advantage.

    Benefit from all significant new trade deals +0.5% GDP. Loss from leaving CU for 'Canada minus' FTA -4 to -7%% GDP.

    Better late than never, I suppose.
    Over what period is that?

    By 2030. Figures from Treasury and NIESR, I believe. More details on Peter Foster's twitter feed and interview with PH in the Telegraph.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/pmdfoster/st ... 0741114881

    Ah, the fake 2030 numbers again. Osborne was using false 2030 predictions for his negative view back in 2016!
    If they are 'fake' you must have some idea what the 'real' numbers are. What GDP growth do you think is achievable from new trade deals?

    If we are focusing solely on gdp then heaven help us. There is currently a fairly last protest going on where they are questioning our current economic model. Maybe being outside the eu will allow us a bit more flexibility in this large shift.

    Clearly it's only part of the picture, but if the argument is being put forward that we can't possibly be 'shackled' to the Customs Union because it is somehow holding us back, then I think that needs challenging. If someone said it's not holding us back but we just want to be able to do things our way, and that will come at a cost, then fine.

    I really think that is what the Leave leadership are saying. Some time back I googled for Leavers arguing Brexit will make us better off and could not find anything
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 27,697
    It's OK to say you don't know.

    I would dispute that it's impossible to predict 3 months into the future. How do you think businesses produce a cashflow forecast? The numbers won't match exactly because it's a projection not a guaranteed outcome, but you should be able to predict within an acceptable margin of error. Indeed the NIESR projections give a range, not a precise figure.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • robert88
    robert88 Posts: 2,696
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    TailWindHome wrote:
    Denis Staunton
    @denisstaunton
    Irish side believes Varadkar/Johnson meeting has produced the basis for renewed negotiations between UK and EU. A tunnel could be in sight.
    There has certainly been an upward movement in the exchange rates on the back of this.

    And share prices. May take some profits tomorrow. Or I might wait a bit longer.
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    Ah the myth of forecasts being lies.

    A forecast is what it is. A forecast. However, with one, you can measure actual performance vs it. If you exceed it, you know things are going well, if you fall short, you have early notice that expectations are not being met and can respond.

    Organisations that don't forecast tend to be much slower to react to variances as they can only measure actuals retrospectively and against prior years. Prior years may be based on an entirely different cost /business model whereas your forecast is based on your corresponding model for that period.
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    morstar wrote:
    Ah the myth of forecasts being lies.

    A forecast is what it is. A forecast. However, with one, you can measure actual performance vs it. If you exceed it, you know things are going well, if you fall short, you have early notice that expectations are not being met and can respond.

    Organisations that don't forecast tend to be much slower to react to variances as they can only measure actuals retrospectively and against prior years. Prior years may be based on an entirely different cost /business model whereas your forecast is based on your corresponding model for that period.

    I have no problem with 12-24 month forecasts. They will be wrong though and we all know this. However this is an 11 year forecast and remainers blindly accept and promote it :lol: You are an idiot if you believe an 11 year economic forecast, especially one as complex as trade!

    Just like you are an idiot if you believed Osborne's 14 year economic forecasts in 2016 and made your referendum choice on it!
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    morstar wrote:
    Ah the myth of forecasts being lies.

    A forecast is what it is. A forecast. However, with one, you can measure actual performance vs it. If you exceed it, you know things are going well, if you fall short, you have early notice that expectations are not being met and can respond.

    Organisations that don't forecast tend to be much slower to react to variances as they can only measure actuals retrospectively and against prior years. Prior years may be based on an entirely different cost /business model whereas your forecast is based on your corresponding model for that period.

    I have no problem with 12-24 month forecasts. They will be wrong though and we all know this. However this is an 11 year forecast and remainers blindly accept and promote it :lol: You are an idiot if you believe an 11 year economic forecast, especially one as complex as trade!

    Just like you are an idiot if you believed Osborne's 14 year economic forecasts in 2016 and made your referendum choice on it!
    Where do you stand on buses as a mechanism for informing opinions?
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 18,941
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/u ... 7?mode=amp

    Possible Irish Sea Border soln.


    Apologies if posted earlier, haven't kept up with what other posters have been posting over the last couple of days
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • mr_goo
    mr_goo Posts: 3,770
    morstar wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    morstar wrote:
    Ah the myth of forecasts being lies.

    A forecast is what it is. A forecast. However, with one, you can measure actual performance vs it. If you exceed it, you know things are going well, if you fall short, you have early notice that expectations are not being met and can respond.

    Organisations that don't forecast tend to be much slower to react to variances as they can only measure actuals retrospectively and against prior years. Prior years may be based on an entirely different cost /business model whereas your forecast is based on your corresponding model for that period.

    I have no problem with 12-24 month forecasts. They will be wrong though and we all know this. However this is an 11 year forecast and remainers blindly accept and promote it :lol: You are an idiot if you believe an 11 year economic forecast, especially one as complex as trade!

    Just like you are an idiot if you believed Osborne's 14 year economic forecasts in 2016 and made your referendum choice on it!
    Where do you stand on buses as a mechanism for informing opinions?

    A hell of a lot more than your blind faith in the EU.
    Always be yourself, unless you can be Aaron Rodgers....Then always be Aaron Rodgers.
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    TailWindHome wrote:
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/customs-border-in-irish-sea-emerges-as-the-only-basis-of-a-brexit-deal-1.4046877?mode=amp

    Possible Irish Sea Border soln.


    Apologies if posted earlier, haven't kept up with what other posters have been posting over the last couple of days
    The sea is the logical solution. Obviously an emotive one, but what proposal won't be emotive? Even the status quo is a very fragile solution.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 18,941
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    morstar wrote:
    Ah the myth of forecasts being lies.

    A forecast is what it is. A forecast. However, with one, you can measure actual performance vs it. If you exceed it, you know things are going well, if you fall short, you have early notice that expectations are not being met and can respond.

    Organisations that don't forecast tend to be much slower to react to variances as they can only measure actuals retrospectively and against prior years. Prior years may be based on an entirely different cost /business model whereas your forecast is based on your corresponding model for that period.

    I have no problem with 12-24 month forecasts. They will be wrong though and we all know this. However this is an 11 year forecast and remainers blindly accept and promote it :lol: You are an idiot if you believe an 11 year economic forecast, especially one as complex as trade!

    Just like you are an idiot if you believed Osborne's 14 year economic forecasts in 2016 and made your referendum choice on it!

    If you don't accept longer range forecast models how would you suggest longer term decisions are made?
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    Mr Goo wrote:
    morstar wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    morstar wrote:
    Ah the myth of forecasts being lies.

    A forecast is what it is. A forecast. However, with one, you can measure actual performance vs it. If you exceed it, you know things are going well, if you fall short, you have early notice that expectations are not being met and can respond.

    Organisations that don't forecast tend to be much slower to react to variances as they can only measure actuals retrospectively and against prior years. Prior years may be based on an entirely different cost /business model whereas your forecast is based on your corresponding model for that period.

    I have no problem with 12-24 month forecasts. They will be wrong though and we all know this. However this is an 11 year forecast and remainers blindly accept and promote it :lol: You are an idiot if you believe an 11 year economic forecast, especially one as complex as trade!

    Just like you are an idiot if you believed Osborne's 14 year economic forecasts in 2016 and made your referendum choice on it!
    Where do you stand on buses as a mechanism for informing opinions?

    A hell of a lot more than your blind faith in the EU.

    What the heck are you on about? Play the ball, not the man!

    My post is about the reason for forecasts. The response suggests people put too much faith in forecasts which is a reasonable argument. I highlighted a counter point about other sources of information for informing Brexit opinions.

    Seems I've touched a nerve. Did you believe the bus?
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,549
    morstar wrote:
    Ah the myth of forecasts being lies.

    A forecast is what it is. A forecast. However, with one, you can measure actual performance vs it. If you exceed it, you know things are going well, if you fall short, you have early notice that expectations are not being met and can respond.

    Organisations that don't forecast tend to be much slower to react to variances as they can only measure actuals retrospectively and against prior years. Prior years may be based on an entirely different cost /business model whereas your forecast is based on your corresponding model for that period.
    A forecast is an educated guess. And in general the longer the timeline, the less accurate a forecast is likely to be.

    The main problem with your point above is that we are trying to compare future actual economic performance to a performance in a hypotherical future scenario of us not leaving - which may or may not be right. So there is no way of knowing if the variation between the two is valid or not.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    morstar wrote:
    Ah the myth of forecasts being lies.

    A forecast is what it is. A forecast. However, with one, you can measure actual performance vs it. If you exceed it, you know things are going well, if you fall short, you have early notice that expectations are not being met and can respond.

    Organisations that don't forecast tend to be much slower to react to variances as they can only measure actuals retrospectively and against prior years. Prior years may be based on an entirely different cost /business model whereas your forecast is based on your corresponding model for that period.
    A forecast is an educated guess. And in general the longer the timeline, the less accurate a forecast is likely to be.

    The main problem with your point above is that we are trying to compare future actual economic performance to a performance in a hypotherical future scenario of us not leaving - which may or may not be right. So there is no way of knowing if the variation between the two is valid or not.

    I was more just making a case for why forecasting is worthwhile but to respond to your particular point...

    Agreed, we are talking about comparing one forecast to another. Both are inherently wrong and more so the further out you look.

    That doesn't however mean that sensible comparisons can't be made between different likely outcomes. There is nothing wrong with that exercise. The only question here is whether you agree with the assumptions of the forecast models used.

    Obviously they are subjective and the crowd has partisan opinions.

    I guess the fact that nobody is making an economic case for Brexit, there are some fairly widely accepted economic consequences.

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