Election 2015 - who are you going to vote and predictions
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My constituency (Broxtowe in Nottingam) is a very marginal seat between Conservatives (Anna Soubry) and Nick Palmer.
Soubry won last time by just 389 votes after Palmer had been in since 1997.
There's been a lot of "hoo ha" about the tram works and they have differing views on HS2.
Only Palmer has responded to the CTC's cycling survey.
We also have a really odd party called 'Justice for Men and Boys' standing, had some of their garbage through the door today, ridiculous!
My favourite "broxtowe constituency" trivia is that between 1929 and 1953 the MP was a Mr Seymour Cocks.
My vote is going to Labour, and I'm quite a fan of Milliband, although if I could vote for Nicola Sturgeon I would!0 -
Sorry, but you've got to vote, or spoil the paper. Exercise your right (fought and died for remember) and then you can moan and bleat to your hearts content.
I'm a headteacher - probably one of the few to encourage my staff to vote in union ballots. Exercise your rights and stand together - even if it gives me and other colleagues a cruddy day.
I'll be voting and noticeable that there's a lot of action here in Southampton with Denham stepping down on a 192 majority. UKIP might be getting a look in with adults, but many students here are vehemently against their policies - I almost had a riot in an election special lesson on tuesday (it is a severe EBD school tho).0 -
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Nice to see you've lost none of your old touch, shortie.
It's all self interest: much as I love paying tax, there comes a point, much like with green vegetables or hot twins on the run from the Playboy Mansion, when even I have to say "no more".0 -
Yeah.
To be honest, personally, certainly in the short term anyway, I'd probably benefit from tory policy.
But I guess I fundamentally feel that I don't need help, i'm fairly privileged, so see no reason to vote for a system which gives me more when there are plenty of people who have less than me are losing out in the process.
Generally a more equal society is better for everyone, ultimately, and I don't think the tories do that. In fact, I think they make it worse. Rise of food banks in past 5 years is a big red flag for me. Why this doesn't get more people up in arms I have no idea.
Selfish bastards probably.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:Yeah.
To be honest, personally, certainly in the short term anyway, I'd probably benefit from tory policy.
But I guess I fundamentally feel that I don't need help, i'm fairly privileged, so see no reason to vote for a system which gives me more when there are plenty of people who have less than me are losing out in the process.
Generally a more equal society is better for everyone, ultimately, and I don't think the tories do that. In fact, I think they make it worse. Rise of food banks in past 5 years is a big red flag for me. Why this doesn't get more people up in arms I have no idea.
Selfish bastards probably.
Wait and see whether you feel that way when you have a family of your own to provide for, and a Govt itching to put its hand ever deeper into your pocket.
Not trying to be patronising: it's just that perspective changes. We had more disposable income pre kids when Mrs66 was in a well paid job, even though total income was lower then than it is now.0 -
Doorknob!? It's more of a door handle, a very large handle for a very large door. Hangs a little to the left.vermin wrote:Me too. doorknob or not, DDD is more interesting that endless gabba this, alpha that ...Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:
The Tories won't get anywhere with UKIP or the DUP.
Have a look here: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk.
The bottom line is that unless the Tories start peeling back from Labour some of the 25 or so seats they are projected to lose (partly due to desertions to UKIP) and then some more besides, they won't have a majority even with the LDs. The SNP will join with Labour to block a minority Tory govt or Tory/LD coalition, because they hate the Tories. That means the Miliband & Balls Show play Downing Street for the next five years, with a script written, directed and produced by the short one from the Krankies and the fat one who looks like Shrek (but isn't funny)
I hope everyone likes paying lots and lots of tax, and watching it migrate to the Scottish NHS. If student fees are anything to go by it won't be long before the Scottish NHS ceases to be free at the point of use to Sassenach b'stards!
Extreme, but in principle not wrong. I also think the Tories will have a lot more support than the media is playing up. They haven't actually done much wrong. They helped pull the country back from recession, they've managed to share the platitudes of good Lib Dem policies while avoiding being blamed for the bad policies - Nick Clegg becoming toxic as a result. The NHS... well this is their way of doing it and much of the challenges would still be there (like A&E closures) if we had Labour.
For me it came down to this:
Do I want to pay more tax or do I want more austerity? Labour and Lib Dem tax policies won't affect me, I don't earn enough, in fact I'm likely to benefit. Whereas I'm likely to suffer in the face of more austerity directly and indirectly.
The other larger issue is this:
The Government is giving cash incentives to Councils that build the most houses. So our Tory Council and MP are planning to squeeze as many houses into The Weald as possible, going as far as increasing my village size/population by around 35% (40% of these properties are to be social housing) building on arable farmland and green fields. No real plan for infrastructure, no new roads or public facilities for what could easily become a stretched community. No consultation, no listening to public opinion or the independent and Water company review that the sewage system is in desperate and costly need of updating to serve the current population. The developers money to invest in my village went to the school at the next village. It costs £5 to travel 8 miles by bus (that is something I cannot believe) and they put up my council tax, twice.
The Lib Dem guy, a local, quit his job two years ago to campaign tirelessly mostly against the above.
the Tory Candidate is Helen Grant who owns a law firm in Croydon, wanted to be MP of Hammersmith/Fulham and whose financial handlings are quite questionable.
The Labour candidate is a guy who went to Maidstone Grammar - but now lives in Dulwich. In 2010 they got 9% of the vote, I don't even think they're trying to win this seat.
UKIP candidate is local, but I'll never vote for them.
So Lib Dem it is.Food Chain number = 4
A true scalp is not only overtaking someone but leaving them stopped at a set of lights. As you, who have clearly beaten the lights, pummels nothing but the open air ahead. ~ 'DondaddyD'. Player of the Unspoken Game0 -
You are all right to be afraid. Shouty Scottish people banging on all the time at the side of a government would not be good for anyone.
People are stupid. They don't realise that SNP policies rely on being part of the UK. Extended to the UK as a whole, they wouldn't work. We'd pay Scandanavian taxes, have Italian services and only be able to log on when its windy. Oh, and we'd have a small defence force armed with pointy sticks.
Here's an SNP poitical debate:
SNP: We will make everything free. We will build stuff. A few bridges maybe, and some steam railways. We will increase spending everywhere.
Anyone else: Erm, but you don't have any money.
SNP: That's insulting. That's rediculous.
Still, all the ex miners and steel workers and ship builders who hated Thatch for shutting down internationally competetive and profitable industries will vote SNP.
The rest of us will wait until we pay more tax than people 100 miles south after fiscal devo-hell, then we'll move 100 miles south. Won't change the SNPs polularity though, because they don't rely too heavily on people who pay tax.0 -
Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:
Wait and see whether you feel that way when you have a family of your own to provide for, and a Govt itching to put its hand ever deeper into your pocket.
Not trying to be patronising: it's just that perspective changes. We had more disposable income pre kids when Mrs66 was in a well paid job, even though total income was lower then than it is now.
Never stopped my parents from voting leftish so I would be surprised if that perspective changes.0 -
Only a Ginger wrote:
My favourite "broxtowe constituency" trivia is that between 1929 and 1953 the MP was a Mr Seymour Cocks.
POTW! Had to double check that - it's true! Marvellous....0 -
I ticked the "independent" button. What really puzzles me is the way people assume this is some kind of presidential election and we are voting for Cameron or Miliband.
My area (Fareham) is massively Conservative. A wheelie bin would get in if it had a blue rosette. And like DDD, the plan is to concrete over every flipping square inch of this part of the world to build lots of £300,000 "affordable" houses. The local Tory council have forced this through with no meaningful consultation. And now we are having a Tory candidate parachuted in as the last one realised his interests lie elsewhere (the City, where he can earn £loads).
One of the independents is an independent councillor. I have seen him in action in the council chamber and I like the cut of his jib. He gets my vote.Ecrasez l’infame0 -
Doesn't really matter as my part of East London is Labour through and through and everyone loves Stella (the current incumbent). My heart always says Labour because my upbringing was very modes in Lincolnshire where outside of Lincoln itself and Grimsby area, it's 100% Conservative and always will be. It's like some feudal system where you just vote for the rich toff. Peter Tapsell, current Father of the House has been an MP there since 1966 FFS. I have to say though that I think my views are slowly turning more towards the Tories, who I think have done a decent job since they were elected.0
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My MP is Michael Meacher, and I'll be voting to keep him in, although I think Miliband is the weakest leader Labour have had for as long as I can remember.
I'd be quite tempted to vote Green - I think this is the first year we've had a candidate - but he hasn't got a cat in hell's chance of even getting a seat on the council so it would just be a wasted vote. Like Rick, the food bank issue has set my vote, along with bankers bonuses and cutting funding to vital public services like mental health support.Commute: Chadderton - Sportcity0 -
I'm in the twickenham ward so Vince Cables, the others don't seem rooted to the area nor would I trust them to see it anything but a steeping stone, so probably a lib dem vote from me simply, since he appears to make time for local interests.
I'm fairly unintested in party politics much more in the local0 -
Any thoughts on a Lib Lab coalition? It makes the most sense, they are natural bedfellows and but for Brown the last government might have gone that way. Biggest obstacle seems to be the collapse of the Liberal vote, they may not have enough seats to make a difference. Labour should be pushing the Scots to come back to them to avoid an unworkable Lab / SNP coalition / alliance and letting the Tories back in through the back door, they could even press for tactical voting from Scottish Tories as if the Tories' concern is genuinely keeping the SNP out (rather than stopping Lab getting in) then propping up the Scottish Labour vote is the best way to do it. Its all an intriguing mess really, there will be a coalition but who will be in it? I'm not sure the country is ready for a government that doesn't include the biggest party so whoever "wins" between Lab and Tories likely to have first dibs, we just need either to be able to form a credible coalition without UKIP or SNP. What are the odds?0
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Clegg's "big thing" in 2010 was going with the party that had the most seats, rather than the party that the LDs were ideologically closest to (which is why, incidentally, Sturgeon's promise to screw the Tories no matter what - including if they are the largest minority party - is so disgraceful).
If Labour is the biggest party, and/or Clegg loses his seat and is replaced by someone more left leaning, I could see the LDs supporting Labour. It would be a heavenly solution for Labour as they would not have to rely on the SNP, but would also know that the SNP would likely never gang up with the Tories to defeat them.0 -
I think you're right on the largest party thing, it'll end up being either a minority government of the largest party or a coalition; in either case, I wonder what their chances will be of lasting 5 years.BigMat wrote:I'm not sure the country is ready for a government that doesn't include the biggest party so whoever "wins" between Lab and Tories likely to have first dibs, we just need either to be able to form a credible coalition without UKIP or SNP. What are the odds?
SNP obviously a big factor, but not sure about UKIP being that relevant to a coalition; although they are scoring 13% in the latest BBC poll, it seems hard to believe they'll get more than a couple of seats.
It's not that hard to envisage a scenario where the only 2-party coalition with a majority would be Lab/Con...Pannier, 120rpm.0 -
Any party promising anything in the way of election reform?
PR and the like?"If you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you've always got."
PX Kaffenback 2 = Work Horse
B-Twin Alur 700 = Sundays and Hills0 -
msmancunia wrote:I'd be quite tempted to vote Green - I think this is the first year we've had a candidate - but he hasn't got a cat
I read that far - which is where the line break is on my screen - and thought "OMG! This girl used to be sensible. WTF happened to her?" 0 -
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Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:(which is why, incidentally, Sturgeon's promise to screw the Tories no matter what - including if they are the largest minority party - is so disgraceful).
Scotland is an irrelevance to the Conservatives, they only have Tweeddale, and I can't imagine they'll add to that this time. Labour usually get about 40 seats which it's hard to see them getting in nationally without.
What would you imagine that the SNP could do if they win the suggested 40+ seats (out of 59)? Their voters obviously couldn't stand them in coalition with the Conservatives, Scotland hasn't been Conservative since the 50's and show little sign of becoming so. So the natural thing would be to join with their most aligned national party.
Wait for the next election, when the SNP start to field candidates in England...0 -
Yes, because that was such an overwhelming success 4 years ago. Fucking moronic British public voted overwhelmingly for the shitty status quo, or more accurately the majority of the moronic British public didn't even bother to fucking vote (despite the endless chorus of 'oh i don't bother voting, safe seat, never makes any difference blah di fucking blah' every time we get an election).rubertoe wrote:Any party promising anything in the way of election reform?
PR and the like?
They don't even bother to vote in the European elections where we actually do get PR.
In short, once again, the UK populace will get the government it deserves.0 -
TGOTB wrote:
UKIP want to abolish postal voting; does that count?rubertoe wrote:Any party promising anything in the way of election reform?
PR and the like?
Sounds good to me. I'll submit my postal vote for them later"If you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you've always got."
PX Kaffenback 2 = Work Horse
B-Twin Alur 700 = Sundays and Hills0 -
UndercoverElephant wrote:Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:(which is why, incidentally, Sturgeon's promise to screw the Tories no matter what - including if they are the largest minority party - is so disgraceful).
Scotland is an irrelevance to the Conservatives, they only have Tweeddale, and I can't imagine they'll add to that this time. Labour usually get about 40 seats which it's hard to see them getting in nationally without.
What would you imagine that the SNP could do if they win the suggested 40+ seats (out of 59)? Their voters obviously couldn't stand them in coalition with the Conservatives, Scotland hasn't been Conservative since the 50's and show little sign of becoming so. So the natural thing would be to join with their most aligned national party.
Wait for the next election, when the SNP start to field candidates in England...
A principled stance could be: "We (the SNP) will, if we hold the balance of power, support the party that the UK as a whole has returned as the largest minority party in Westminster".
Or: "If we hold the balance of power, we will not block (ie will abstain) the Tories from forming and running a minority Govt if they are the largest minority power in Westminster" (or sub in Con/LD coalition for Tories).
Also "We will in any event continue to abstain in Westminster on matters which do not concern Scotland".0 -
Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:A principled stance could be: "We (the SNP) will, if we hold the balance of power, support the party that the UK as a whole has returned as the largest minority party in Westminster".
In reality, there's absolutely no way that the SNP could create a workable government with a party that's so different in its views. Since they're somewhere to the left of Labour, I can't see them getting on with the Tories.Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:Or: "If we hold the balance of power, we will not block (ie will abstain) the Tories from forming and running a minority Govt if they are the largest minority power in Westminster" (or sub in Con/LD coalition for Tories).
Well, if Mr. Milliband (the antithesis of a 70's supergroup) is to be believed (pinch of salt), he won't be joining in a coalition with them anyway. Of course, things said before the election have little resemblance to the reality afterwards. It would, of course, be perfectly democratic either way. We're breaking new ground with this coalition stuff recently.Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:Also "We will in any event continue to abstain in Westminster on matters which do not concern Scotland".
I agree with this, but find it a shame that you don't have an (a number of) English Assembly(ies) to discuss English problems in.0 -
Your principled stance basically boils down to "the SNP should support my party"Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:A principled stance could be: "We (the SNP) will, if we hold the balance of power, support the party that the UK as a whole has returned as the largest minority party in Westminster".
If the UK had Single Transferable Vote, how many SNP voters would have the Tories as their second preference? My guess is bugger all.
It makes perfect sense for the SNP to act in a way that gets as much for their voters as they can while keeping their voters in the fold. Getting in bed with the Tories would do the exact opposite.0 -
Whoa, that is nutty, can you post a link to the Green manifesto where it states this so we can read more? Thanks in advance!Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:You know that the Greens have some really nutty ideas, don't you? Like reducing the population of the UK to about 20 million by 20500 -
Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:(which is why, incidentally, Sturgeon's promise to screw the Tories no matter what - including if they are the largest minority party - is so disgraceful).
Why is that disgraceful? That's basically the entire premise of Scottish politics.
"We keep the Tories out" is a vote winner every day of the week. That's why Labour did so well for so many years.
You know that. I get a bit of tribal myopia, but come on Gregg!0
