Election 2015 - who are you going to vote and predictions

DonDaddyD

My GAWD this place has got pleasant and boring, I bet the moderators love it.

No debates and no hot topics, its like a liberal love-in.

Let's have an old fashion debate about the politics, the elections specifically, who are you voting for and why?

Me? Lib Dems.

In my Ward (Maidstone and The Weald) it is likely to be a battle between Tory and Lib Dem.

The Tory Council want to build houses in my lovely village. Now we know 250 are coming, and another 300 or so, but the real figures touted around is about 900 or 35% increase to the village population/size - 40% of which is social housing.

There has been no discussion, no consultation and no thought to infrastructure or public facilities to serve this increase in people. The Tory MP, Helen Grant, doesn't give a f*ck so I want her out the local Lib Dem guy in along with Lib Dem Councillors to save my village. The other alternative is UKIP, which has incredibly support in the neighboring village for exactly the same reasons (they also have a large traveler community - which may be influencing things)

I also like the Lib Dem because while they have become toxic they have been successful in Government getting things done, getting much of their manifesto through and they'd save the NHS from privatisation, which Cameron is determined to do and I like their childcare policy.

So how are you going to vote?

Discuss.

anthdci

I live in the north east so basically my vote counts for absolutely nothing as it will be a labour MP and a labour council. Between the main parties in my memory, Labour created loads of public sector jobs, business boomed. Tories got in propped up by the Lib Dems, they cut all that funding, lots of my friends and family lost their jobs, the town centre is now full of empty shops because there is no money, exactly what happened the last time the Torys were in power in the 80s and 90s. I work for a Uni and the Lib Dem student vote has been well and truly destroyed by them going in with the Tories and going back on everything people voted for them for.

For those basic reasons, I could go into more detail but can't be bothered, even though my vote won't matter, I will still vote labour, because I think if you don't vote then you can't complain about the government, and I really enjoying moaning about stuff.

asprilla

Housing stock required in SE England shock. Not sure whey they would need so much social housing as houses are so cheap down here. The weather is nice, what's wrong with tents?

menthel

Politicians will win, the public will lose and knuckle dragging morons will vote UKIP.

My vote? I know where it's going but given the area I live in it won't bloody matter.

davis

Voting Green because VoteForPolicies and VoteMatch told me I agreed with their policies: namely putting the NHS firmly back as a public venture (and probably increasing my taxes to pay for it; something I'm ok with), renewable energy, better social equality (and bringing back British Rail!). Ultimately I'm voting to become a bit poorer, I suppose. Some things are more important than cash.

In a confirmed Tory safe seat, so it won't make a jot of difference. Still posted the vote off this morning though. Sod 'em.

ugo.santalucia

menthel wrote:

My vote? I know where it's going but given the area I live in it won't bloody matter.

That's the problem with the current representation system. If you live in an area which has a clear majority, you can save yourself the hassle to vote, as it won't make any difference, other than eroding a majority by one vote.

Personally I believe in slightly larger areas with two elected MPs rather than one. This way, not only they would be more diverse, but also a minority vote could be significant.

DonDaddyD

anthdci wrote:

I work for a Uni and the Lib Dem student vote has been well and truly destroyed by them going in with the Tories and going back on everything people voted for them for.

The only thing they went back on was tuition fees, and I think the problem was that when they got into Government they realised that there was no money and funding this policy through taxation would be untenable. Their mistake was to make the promise in the first place.

I'm not sure what else they went back on.

I also think going into coalition for the Tories was best for the Country and while a hit on the party in the short term, definitely a greater good when looked upon in the long term.

Also, if and when its a hung parliament, if the Lib Dem's get to play king maker again they'll have a second term in Government which would be impressive for minority party.

DonDaddyD

ugo.santalucia wrote:

menthel wrote:

My vote? I know where it's going but given the area I live in it won't bloody matter.

That's the problem with the current representation system. If you live in an area which has a clear majority, you can save yourself the hassle to vote, as it won't make any difference, other than eroding a majority by one vote.

Personally I believe in slightly larger areas with two elected MPs rather than one. This way, not only they would be more diverse, but also a minority vote could be significant.

Proportional Representation, perhaps? Though the two MP idea is good.

ugo.santalucia

DonDaddyD wrote:

ugo.santalucia wrote:

menthel wrote:

My vote? I know where it's going but given the area I live in it won't bloody matter.

That's the problem with the current representation system. If you live in an area which has a clear majority, you can save yourself the hassle to vote, as it won't make any difference, other than eroding a majority by one vote.

Personally I believe in slightly larger areas with two elected MPs rather than one. This way, not only they would be more diverse, but also a minority vote could be significant.

Proportional Representation, perhaps? Though the two MP idea is good.

The two MP works for representation, but you need a majority prize, otherwise you'll always have a hung parliament

MisterMuncher

I'm undecided at present, but being in NI it'll hardly matter at all. What is going to be funny is when UKIP fall to be elected in the landslide their more deluded followers believe is just around the corner. The wailing and conspiracy theories will be quite something to hear.

For the main, too close to call, but I find Labour propped up by SNP less worrying than Tories shored up by Kippers and the unDUP. Then again, coalition partners the rarely get the day they think they would.

rubertoe

Meh,

Its all a big con..... everyone is out to line their own pockets.

UndercoverElephant

I think it's fair to say that politics North of the border has changed somewhat over the past few years. In my constituency the SNP were 4th last time, with Labour well out in front. This time? Who knows.

surrey_commuter

I live in a massively Tory seat so will not be voting as it is my way of saying I want PR

davis

Surrey Commuter wrote:

I live in a massively Tory seat so will not be voting as it is my way of saying I want PR

Surely you'd be better off spoiling a paper? Not voting "for $reason" is statistically indistinguishable from apathy.

(Not that I'm saying you must vote. It's your vote!)

elbowloh

Like some above, I live in an area where one party has a massive majority and probably always will - in my case Conservative (Crispin Blunt if you must know).

None of the parties represents my views 100% or even close as far as I can make out. I guess you could say I'm of the left, but feel that Labour has been right of me since Blair. I agree with a lot of what the Greens say, but some of their policies are utter nonsense.

Having said that I'll probably vote green this time, as I don't want to vote for any of the 3 main parties. I feel betrayed and let down by mainstream politics and politicians.

surrey_commuter

davis wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

I live in a massively Tory seat so will not be voting as it is my way of saying I want PR

Surely you'd be better off spoiling a paper? Not voting "for $reason" is statistically indistinguishable from apathy.

(Not that I'm saying you must vote. It's your vote!)

My optimistic theory is that they will only change the system when the turnout drops to ridiculously low levels.

I was once in a constituency where somebody won by 56 votes so even then my vote would not have mattered. One day I might be in a tied constituency but I am prepared to take the risk that will not happen.

veronese68

anthdci wrote:

... even though my vote won't matter, I will still vote labour, because I think if you don't vote then you can't complain about the government, and I really enjoying moaning about stuff.

Have to agree with this. However for very different reasons, Zac Goldsmith is pretty much guaranteed to win in the Richmond Park constituency. As Tories go he's not bad though. I think the Lib Dems will be a shadow of their former selves, a lot of people won't forgive them for getting into bed with the Tories.

vimfuego

Voter turnout is already ridiculously low and speaks volumes for the lack of belief and engagement in the political system as it stands. Career politicians are only in it for themselves.

Viva la revolucion........ or something

dhope

Surrey Commuter wrote:

I was once in a constituency where somebody won by 56 votes so even then my vote would not have mattered. One day I might be in a tied constituency but I am prepared to take the risk that will not happen.

Depends whether 56 other people also thought theirs wouldn't have mattered. If all those that thought it didn't matter decided to vote anyway I expect there would be far smaller majorities next time around.

I don't particularly subscribe to the Russell Brand 'lets change the system by not voting' idea. If we had 90% turnout among 18-25yr olds then suddenly policies would be far more likely to address the issues of 18-25yr olds. The stereotypical self interested politician would surely act in their self interest and adopt a view that would be likely to get them elected - i.e. one that addresses the issues of those that vote.

rick_chasey

DonDaddyD wrote:

My GAWD this place has got pleasant and boring, I bet the moderators love it. .

I miss you mate, honest!

DonDaddyD wrote:

Me? Lib Dems.

Good man.

rick_chasey

dhope wrote:

I don't particularly subscribe to the Russell Brand 'lets change the system by not voting' idea. If we had 90% turnout among 18-25yr olds then suddenly policies would be far more likely to address the issues of 18-25yr olds. The stereotypical self interested politician would surely act in their self interest and adopt a view that would be likely to get them elected - i.e. one that addresses the issues of those that vote.

Yup.

imatfaal

With the numbers of late sign ups to vote (460K in one day) then hopefully we are all getting a bit more engaged. My constituency will be Tory f/b UKIP so my vote for LD or Lab will be protest only.

http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/201 ... gistration

surrey_commuter

dhope wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

I was once in a constituency where somebody won by 56 votes so even then my vote would not have mattered. One day I might be in a tied constituency but I am prepared to take the risk that will not happen.

Depends whether 56 other people also thought theirs wouldn't have mattered. If all those that thought it didn't matter decided to vote anyway I expect there would be far smaller majorities next time around.

If I had a block vote of 56 then this would be relevant. Your 2nd point that you are teeing things up for the next election is a fair point.

Also not all votes are equal as the smallest electorate is Na h-Eileanan an Iar with 22,000 voters whereas the Isle of Wight has 110,000.

veronese68

Rick Chasey wrote:

DonDaddyD wrote:

My GAWD this place has got pleasant and boring, I bet the moderators love it. .

I miss you mate, honest!

I agree.

TheStone

Completely pointless.
Society has found the nice middle ground, the career politicians have flooded and exploited it.

There is virtually no difference between Labour and Cons. They'll pretend there is.

I'd love to vote Green, but have you read their policies!!!

Lib Dems failed in the coalition so badly, they're no longer viable. They had the chance to get a few of their big policies through as part of the agreement, but instead wasted our time and money with their failed (and pointless) voting reforms.

HamishD

I am voting Green. They are totally inept but they're nice which is better than the other way round.

gbsahne001

My vote's wasted, as our MP is Theresa May, so it's unlikely that's going to change (16,769 majority).

Coach H

I'm with Billy Connolly on this; don't vote, it only encourages them! Anyone who expresses an interest in becoming a politician should be banned for life from becoming one.

However not voting at all is simply not having a say. Therefore, in every election but one I have spoiled my paper. This is as close as it gets to an abstention and showing that I am not prepared to vote for any of the self serving parasites that normally inhabit the halls of Parliament. The result that I believe is best for the country is for a 100% turn out spoiling their paper 100%, that would give the politico's & the Queen something to think about

My constituency has had the same useless freeloader for an eternity because it is a north eastern industrial area who will vote Labour even if its in their manifesto to sacrifice all 1st born children. He is now retiring and at least the new candidate is a fairly attractive lady (this is not sexist and has no bearing on her ability to be an MP. Regardless of her gender or what she looks like, the chances are she will be useless).

The only time I actually voted for a candidate was last time around when a guy who was VERY active in the community in his own time and at his own expense was persuaded to run. Sadly even though for a number of years he absolutely demonstrated that he put his community before himself he got next to no votes. Oh well, for a while it looked promising.

PBo

Coach H....you wouldn't be talking about a certain ex - presenter of "calendar" would you???

vermin

...

greg66_tri_v2.0

davis wrote:

Voting Green

HamishD wrote:

I am voting Green.

You know that the Greens have some really nutty ideas, don't you? Like reducing the population of the UK to about 20 million by 2050, reducing electricity use to 25% of its current levels by the same date, and basically deconstructing the western capitalist society we have in favour of an agrarian commune style existence?

Greens are the watermelons of politics: green on the outside and deeply red on the inside.

MisterMuncher wrote:

but I find Labour propped up by SNP less worrying than Tories shored up by Kippers and the unDUP. Then again, coalition partners the rarely get the day they think they would.

The Tories won't get anywhere with UKIP or the DUP.

Have a look here: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk.

The bottom line is that unless the Tories start peeling back from Labour some of the 25 or so seats they are projected to lose (partly due to desertions to UKIP) and then some more besides, they won't have a majority even with the LDs. The SNP will join with Labour to block a minority Tory govt or Tory/LD coalition, because they hate the Tories. That means the Miliband & Balls Show play Downing Street for the next five years, with a script written, directed and produced by the short one from the Krankies and the fat one who looks like Shrek (but isn't funny)

I hope everyone likes paying lots and lots of tax, and watching it migrate to the Scottish NHS. If student fees are anything to go by it won't be long before the Scottish NHS ceases to be free at the point of use to Sassenach b'stards!