ebola - the last days

mamba80

this virus has potential, predicted a million deaths in west Africa (bare in mind a few weeks ago, it was only going to be a few 100 !) exponential rise in new cases.
and now, the unexplained transmission to a Spanish nurse in a Madrid Hospital, who then went on holiday, possibly infecting how many more? has the virus now mutated to a far more virulent form?

with virtually no border control in the south of Europe and our complete inaction in supporting the countries affected, coupled with a current 70% death rate, has focusing solely on ISIS has been a huge mistake ?

simonhead

Do you write for the mail?

Nothing like a bit of scare mongering eh.

arran77

Damn you, I've probably just become infected by reading this thread, I'm doomed :evil:

jimmythecuckoo

I am having a terrible day as it is...

Thanks.

ballysmate

Can't see why you are linking it to Isis to be honest but I do fear someone, carrying the virus, getting off a plane at Heathrow more than some nutter wanting to die for Allah.
There have been outbreaks before which apparently have mostly concerned rural communities and thereby easier to quarantine.
This outbreak initially centred on the border region of Liberia/ Sierra Leone. Cross border trade made it more difficult to contain and meant that several countries would have needed to co-ordinate their response.
With people being more free and able to travel, the genie is now out of the bottle and to be honest, it was only a matter of time when such an outbreak would happen.
Biochemists are in a race against time to develop a vaccine.

bianchimoon

phew it's ok folks (well for us), was talking to a farmer who's on the parish council and they have a civil defence strategy.
They are concerned that all of the 'townies' would rush to the countryside to steal 'OUR' potatoes and turnips, but we will have perimeter guards and pitchforks at the ready, now go and sneeze somewhere else

bernithebiker

I'm stockpiling baked beans while I still can.

But seeing as I only ever leave the grounds to cycle (solo) I reckon I'm reasonably safe…...

mamba80

bernithebiker wrote:

I'm stockpiling baked beans while I still can.

But seeing as I only ever leave the grounds to cycle (solo) I reckon I'm reasonably safe…...

...not when the air born variant comes on stream........ :shock:

veronese68

mamba80 wrote:

bernithebiker wrote:

I'm stockpiling baked beans while I still can.

But seeing as I only ever leave the grounds to cycle (solo) I reckon I'm reasonably safe…...

...not when the air born variant comes on stream........ :shock:

Doesn't matter, it's spread by spiders.

tlw1

Veronese68 wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

bernithebiker wrote:

I'm stockpiling baked beans while I still can.

But seeing as I only ever leave the grounds to cycle (solo) I reckon I'm reasonably safe…...

...not when the air born variant comes on stream........ :shock:

Doesn't matter, it's spread by spiders.

:shock: (quickly shuts the office door bugger, I need a wee)

Moonbiker

Caes growing expotentially now it sees:

So will need a huge response to try stop it, before it gets so big there not stopping it.

seanoconn

Moonbiker wrote:

Caes growing expotentially now it sees:

So will need a huge response to try stop it, before it gets so big there not stopping it.

Are you already infected?

ballysmate

seanoconn wrote:

Moonbiker wrote:

Caes growing expotentially now it sees:

So will need a huge response to try stop it, before it gets so big there not stopping it.

Are you already infected?

Just installed McAfee's to be sure.

ai_1

mamba80 wrote:

this virus has potential, predicted a million deaths in west Africa (bare in mind a few weeks ago, it was only going to be a few 100 !) exponential rise in new cases....

What's the meaning of the topic title mamba? i.e. What does "- the last days" refer to?

chrisaonabike

Yes, it's all very fashionable to shout 'scaremonger' at the first suggestion that the risks are more complicated than the BBC and the Government would have us believe (like that would even be a surprise).

However, it is already clear that poor Thomas Duncan was sent home from hospital when he first presented, even though he had just travelled back from Liberia.

And the Spanish nurse that got it from the priest that died, got it despite being in a western hospital, with preventive measures in place. It will probably transpire that there was some failure in the measures taken, but even so.

So even in western, educated societies, where as Justine Greening would have you believe, precautions are so stringent as not to require any screening of inbounds, mistakes are clearly going to happen.

Then there's this paper. Not humans, just monkeys, but even so - still probably airborne transmission, and The Lancet is hardly the Daily Mail.

Then there's the fact that the Ebola virus is an RNA virus, which are much more prone to mutate than DNA viruses.

And that this Ebola outbreak is giving the virus a greater opportunity to mutate than ever before.

Panic is obviously unnecessary. But put the pieces together and you'll soon realise that a head-in-the-sand "it'll all be fine here" approach is just stupid. It may be ok, but only if the authorities get their acts together, which, frankly, would be a first.

mamba80

Ai_1 wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

this virus has potential, predicted a million deaths in west Africa (bare in mind a few weeks ago, it was only going to be a few 100 !) exponential rise in new cases....

What's the meaning of the topic title mamba? i.e. What does "- the last days" refer to?

well, think about it, no cure, no vaccine, a million dead with in months of its reoccurrence and that's in a region with very little population mobility.
Imagine if it were to take hold in Europe? perhaps mutate as viruses are fond of doing, modern air travel and a massively mobile population, health services that would collapse with just a few 10s of thousands of infections and we could be seeing the end of civilisation or rather be inside its collapse.

but im a positive chap by nature (really???), so I hope non of this will happen but we do need to up our game here and help Africa right now, not in weeks or months, as they say expect the best, prepare for the worst.

ai_1

ChrisAOnABike wrote:

Yes, it's all very fashionable to shout 'scaremonger' at the first suggestion that the risks are more complicated than the BBC and the Government would have us believe (like that would even be a surprise)....

Is it? I wasn't aware of that.
To be honest there is a lot of scaremongering in the media these day on some subjects and utter neglect on others.
Discussion is healthy, scaremongering deflects attention and reason from where it's needed. Judging between considered communication of concern and over the top scaremongering is tricky. In this case the title is a bit ambiguous but "ebola - the last days" sounds like an attempt at scaremongering to me. If he'd gone with "Ebola - this is looking serious" I'd be much happier.

ChrisAOnABike wrote:

Panic is obviously unnecessary. But put the pieces together and you'll soon realise that a head-in-the-sand "it'll all be fine here" approach is just stupid. It may be ok, but only if the authorities get their acts together, which, frankly, would be a first.

Agreed.
The problem is that the majority of the population in my opinion swing between apathy, panic and excited voyeurism on a regular basis but spend no time pondering rationally in the middle. Just look at climate change. Sure, some people still deny it's an issue but of those that accept it's actually real and serious apathy still rules. If some some unprescedented disaster is blamed on climate change, they may briefly swing to excited commentary but it's soon forgotten again. There's a reason why the "news" is full of extreme scandals, disasters and crimes. That's what people want to hear about. This stuff is not more newsworthy than the less exciting stuff you don't hear about and which is often far more relevant to society as a whole. But the important boring stuff just doesn't give the same thrill as a murder for example.
News is not really news. It's a cynical style of entertainment. Disagree? Why do news broadcasts regularly tag on stories about celebrities? Are they news? No.
Anyway, my point is that scaremongering is a tool of this cynical entertainment industry (and a lot of politicians and marketeers). It's not used primarily to responsibly inform the public on matters relevenat to them for their own good. It's primarily a means of manipulation by those with vested interests, be they purely looking for viewer/reader numbers to raise avertising revenue or something more specific.

VTech

mamba80 wrote:

Ai_1 wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

this virus has potential, predicted a million deaths in west Africa (bare in mind a few weeks ago, it was only going to be a few 100 !) exponential rise in new cases....

What's the meaning of the topic title mamba? i.e. What does "- the last days" refer to?

well, think about it, no cure, no vaccine, a million dead with in months of its reoccurrence and that's in a region with very little population mobility.
Imagine if it were to take hold in Europe? perhaps mutate as viruses are fond of doing, modern air travel and a massively mobile population, health services that would collapse with just a few 10s of thousands of infections and we could be seeing the end of civilisation or rather be inside its collapse.

but im a positive chap by nature (really???), so I hope non of this will happen but we do need to up our game here and help Africa right now, not in weeks or months, as they say expect the best, prepare for the worst.

Most hospitals in the UK are already stretched so given the fact that this virus is said to have the capacity to double every two weeks (infection rates which have so far been the case) then how would they cope ?
I'm not certain people have really thought about just how dangerous this is. The fact is that we are overpopulating and with that comes naturally stronger and more dangerous virus's ready to attack.

Borders are open with very little control so how do we honestly think we have a chance to stop these types of virus ?

chrisaonabike

Ai_1 wrote:

ChrisAOnABike wrote:

Yes, it's all very fashionable to shout 'scaremonger' at the first suggestion that the risks are more complicated than the BBC and the Government would have us believe (like that would even be a surprise)....

Is it? I wasn't aware of that.

Well, it is a little. From Alex Salmond to the climate change deniers, there is a general aversion to facing up to and debating concerns in a balanced way. I'd put the conflation of the Immigration debate with racism in a similar sort of category, where of course the two are separate, but an attempted debate brings out all kinds of accusations.

But as you say, the cynical media create a lot of hype in the other direction as well. But who buys the papers and clicks on the celeb stories?

News is not really news. It's a cynical style of entertainment..

Yes, you're right of course.

Look on the bright side - if Ebola becomes aerosol-transmissible, the population will soon be back down to a level where we won't have to worry about carbon emissions any more.

mamba80

Ai_1 wrote:

If he'd gone with "Ebola - this is looking serious" I'd be much happier.

oh grow up Ai, this is a bike forum and my post isn't a paper to Cobra.

some long winded debate on scare mongering/racketeering or not is just the sort of prevarication that we really do not need but I suspect we will get

pblakeney

ChrisAOnABike wrote:

Look on the bright side - if Ebola becomes aerosol-transmissible, the population will soon be back down to a level where we won't have to worry about carbon emissions any more.

The roads will be quieter too.

ai_1

mamba80 wrote:

Ai_1 wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

this virus has potential, predicted a million deaths in west Africa (bare in mind a few weeks ago, it was only going to be a few 100 !) exponential rise in new cases....

What's the meaning of the topic title mamba? i.e. What does "- the last days" refer to?

well, think about it, no cure, no vaccine, a million dead with in months of its reoccurrence and that's in a region with very little population mobility.
Imagine if it were to take hold in Europe? perhaps mutate as viruses are fond of doing, modern air travel and a massively mobile population, health services that would collapse with just a few 10s of thousands of infections and we could be seeing the end of civilisation or rather be inside its collapse.

but im a positive chap by nature (really???), so I hope non of this will happen but we do need to up our game here and help Africa right now, not in weeks or months, as they say expect the best, prepare for the worst.

Okay... just checking
So, yes, you're scaremongering.
Yes, there's a need for serious concern and carefully thought out measures to control this. Yes, there's risk of much more spread and huge numbers of deaths. Yes, the impact on society could be great. Yes, you're inviting panic with that sensationalist title. Yes, you're jumping the gun somewhat with your analysis.....and No, I don't think it's likely these are "the last days".

ai_1

mamba80 wrote:

Ai_1 wrote:

If he'd gone with "Ebola - this is looking serious" I'd be much happier.

oh grow up Ai, this is a bike forum and my post isn't a paper to Cobra.

some long winded debate on scare mongering/racketeering or not is just the sort of prevarication that we really do not need but I suspect we will get

Don't worry. I'll likely be dead soon. :shock:

chrisaonabike

Ai_1 wrote:

Yes, you're jumping the gun somewhat with your analysis.....and No, I don't think it's likely these are "the last days".

Of course it's not likely. But what does that actually mean? It only means that the really catastrophic outcomes don't happen very often.

The point is, it only needs to happen once, and by definition, even very unlikely things happen eventually. A big asteroid on a collision course with Earth is very unlikely, but it will happen eventually, and it's the single most likely thing that could actually eradicate our species.

The measures we take need to be commensurate not only with the risk, but also with the terribleness of the outcome if the unlikely thing did happen.

So the analysis is very much not jumping the gun. It's a 'what-if' question, and perfectly valid and sensible.

Such analysis needs to be before the mutation to make the virus airborne, not after.

bernithebiker

Maybe we'll see a boost in bike sales; think about, what would you choose?

a) cycle into work in the fresh air, at least 3m from any other human.

b) squeeze into the Tube, with plenty of unwelcome bodily contact and people sneezing in your face, all in a hot and humid 25'C.

chrisaonabike

or c) become a health worker and be among the first to get the vaccine when it arrives. Just try and time it so that you don't have to do too much Liberian corpse shovelling until then.

Paulie W

There has been until the last few days a pretty clear position that ebola does not ultimately pose a global threat because in its current form it is too effective for its own good - it kills most of its hosts pretty quickly - and the virus cannot not be transmitted through the air. It should therefore be very containable in most western contexts with their developed health infrastructure, particularly if cases are identified at the earliest opportunity. There is also a cultural aspect to this that makes its spread less likely in the West.

The fact a nurse in Spain caught the virus when that should have been virtually impossible without her bypassing agreed procedures and that the guy in Dallas was sent home after presenting with ebola symptoms and proceeded to have contact with 50 plus people has shaken that view a little, as has the increased possibility of mutation - the guy who discovered ebola has said recently he can see it mutating to become less effective at killing its hosts (although he rejects the notion that airborne transmission is a possible mutation).

Over the last few days some of the news reporting does resemble the beginning of all those post-apocalypse movies!!

mamba80

Ai_1 wrote:

So, yes, you're scaremongering.
Yes, there's a need for serious concern and carefully thought out measures to control this. Yes, there's risk of much more spread and huge numbers of deaths. Yes, the impact on society could be great. Yes, you're inviting panic with that sensationalist title. Yes, you're jumping the gun somewhat with your analysis.....and No, I don't think it's likely these are "the last days".

Agreed its possibly not the last days, but it got your attention and ire and it still might be!

no I am def not scare mongering because I am not in any position of authority, so my opinion counts for diddly so who am I scare mongering? sensationalist title??? please don't give me that sort of influence

Had the WHO/UN/USA/EU taken this more seriously a few months back we would nt be where we are now, past Flu pandemics have shown that 100s of millions can die, the black death killed 1/2 of Europe's population est to be 75m to 200m deaths.
we live in an age of great medical advances but that may not always be the case and we shouldn't take human health for granted

chrisaonabike

I don't usually read the Grauniad, but in my Ebola-related internet travels I came across this very interesting article.

We trash the environment at our peril.

ai_1

ChrisAOnABike wrote:

Ai_1 wrote:

Yes, you're jumping the gun somewhat with your analysis.....and No, I don't think it's likely these are "the last days".

Of course it's not likely. But what does that actually mean? It only means that the really catastrophic outcomes don't happen very often.

The point is, it only needs to happen once, and by definition, even very unlikely things happen eventually. A big asteroid on a collision course with Earth is very unlikely, but it will happen eventually, and it's the single most likely thing that could actually eradicate our species.

The measures we take need to be commensurate not only with the risk, but also with the terribleness of the outcome if the unlikely thing did happen.

So the analysis is very much not jumping the gun. It's a 'what-if' question, and perfectly valid and sensible.

Such analysis needs to be before the mutation to make the virus airborne, not after.

I agree with pretty much all of that.
I never said analysis was jumping the gun, in fact I think I said almost the exact opposite in an earlier post. Forecasting doom, on this occassion, is premature. And that's what I am critical of in Mambas posts and specifically the thread title. The subject is real and dramatic enough as it is. No need for theatrics

mamba80

the only person focusing on my thread title is you, no one else mentioned it before or since.
also, despite this being in the news for many weeks, no one had posted a thread about it before and it now has 2 pages of comment, most serious, some humorous but only yours critical of the thread title??? why? you are starting to appear like a troll tbh, it really is irrelevant and you need to try and get over your fascination.

I have raised the subject, given historical precedence and suggested where perhaps, the west needs to improve its response, because even a so called minor out break in Europe would be catastrophic for all our lives.