Sagan: Great or underachieving?
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I think Richard Moore recently said 'Sagan can win on almost any terrain', it seems more accurate (for this Tour at least) to rearrange to 'he can almost win on any terrain!'
Rule No.10 // It never gets easier, you just go faster0 -
Underachieving? What?
Peter Sagan is no Jan Ullrich.0 -
Young. I don't want to see him riding conservatively, but I guess he could have improved his chances yesterday and in Sheffeild if he'd ridden more discretely and bided his time. He'd need to be lucky to win a pure sprint finish. Not hearing anyone say that Cancellara is washed up because he didn't pull off the win in Harrogate.0
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Surely someone will be on the radio telling him what to do? Although he should really have enough experience now to work out when to make a single effective attack or wait for the sprint.0
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frisbee wrote:Surely someone will be on the radio telling him what to do? Although he should really have enough experience now to work out when to make a single effective attack or wait for the sprint.
It's almost as if radios don't decide tactics on the road :P (which they don't, despite what people seem to think)
He's in a tough spot - If he's in a group and someone goes off the front, everyone will leave it to him to chase. But if he attacks or goes with an attack, the other guys will just sit in. It's the Cancellera gambit.
He needs a slightly stronger team who so he can have a worker with him in the tough finals.Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.0 -
He hasn't quite got that strategic capacity for winning races like a Sean Kelly had. It will come with experience though.
Cancellara is a good example. As riders started to realise just how talented he is they basically tried to mark him out the race. So he has had to learn exactly the right moment to attack, the right moment to work himself, and the right moment to force others to work.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Sagan habitually getting near misses for a while but then one season something just clicks and he wins everything.0 -
if he gets himself into proper team, he could be dominant
and, dare I say it, lose a kg or two0 -
Great. It's been alluded to above, I think at the moment he is lacking that killer instinct. He sometimes seems to just be mucking about, when that talent could be used to bury his opponents.Ecrasez l’infame0
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Do you think there's any possibility he's just chasing Green Jersey points and not risking it all for stage wins? In some of the bunch sprints he seemed OK just making sure he was up there to collect points instead of going all-out like he might do for a one day race.0
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You're a very tough crowd.
Sean Kelly won 5 stages in the tour in his career. Sagan has won 4 stages and came very close is his fifth yesterday.
Oh but Kelly won lots of monuments. How many did he have at the age of 24?
He's a very talented 24 year old who is being judged as if he is a senior pro.0 -
For those who know these kind of things, is Cannondale a relatively poor team?0
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At the moment I'd say great, but I'll answer properly 8 years from now.0
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TheBigBean wrote:He's a very talented 24 year old who is being judged as if he is a senior pro.
This. It's too early to judge whether Sagan will be good, great, or a flash in the pan. Calling him 'great' on the back of a couple of seasons is definitely overdoing it.
FWIW though,I think this year he seems to be racing with a bit more doubt in him. David Millar was talking about the way Sagan previously took risks that nobody else would - or could, frankly - to get towards the front. I get the impression that he isn't racing with quite the same aggression this year - it's a little more measured - and the desire to attack from distance is possibly a symptom of that. I'm sure he'll work it out, and if he doesn't at least we'll have fun watching.0 -
Don't write off Sagan, well not until he has won today (Saturdays) stage…I have a fiver on him, at crazy odds!!!
Maybe if the Cannondale media rep reads this he will realise it's a BIG day for Peter,and tell him the hopes of a Bike Radar member are riding on him!!!!
Joking aside, I think he seems to lack the maturity required at this stage, and also just as important he seems to ride his own team members so hard, because he is so good, he never has a real lead out for the finish when a sprint is up for grabs…
He has in the last few days tagged onto some other teams wheel at least 3 times…Good luck to him though, the train is NOT exclusively yours, and he WILL win stages this tour…hopefully today!!! Go Sagan!!!!!0 -
RichN95 wrote:
Yes. Plenty of people to do bog standard donkey work but not much else. Viviani is really the only one that you could class as above average.Milton50 wrote:For those who know these kind of things, is Cannondale a relatively poor team?
Moser's a good talent as well. But yeah, it seems as if they're missing a top tier domestique. Someone who could be with Sagan in a reduced group of 30-40 to do the chasing if people try and jump away.0 -
A bit early for a Sagan retrospective. He's about the same age as Little Pete but with a far greater palmares. Bizzarely I don't think his achievements would be questioned if he hadn't been such a successful rider.0
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I was just considering the nine at the Tour. Moser's the sort of person he needs, but they have to spread their meagre resources thinly.Milton50 wrote:Moser's a good talent as well. But yeah, it seems as if they're missing a top tier domestique. Someone who could be with Sagan in a reduced group of 30-40 to do the chasing if people try and jump away.Twitter: @RichN950 -
The very very minor worry is he's finding someone with a better sprint than him in more and more finishes; not just in the Tour, but all year, and going back to last year too. He maybe needs to stop wasting energy on finishes like yesterday; there was no need at all for him to be pushing the pace on the climb, but he always does it. The wins will come back soon enough - like today.0
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Turfle wrote:He maybe needs to stop wasting energy on finishes like yesterday; there was no need at all for him to be pushing the pace on the climb, but he always does it.
But I think he feels compelled to do that kind of thing because he knows once it gets to the run-in there'll be constant jumps out of the group and it will be up to him to chase.0 -
Milton50 wrote:Turfle wrote:He maybe needs to stop wasting energy on finishes like yesterday; there was no need at all for him to be pushing the pace on the climb, but he always does it.
But I think he feels compelled to do that kind of thing because he knows once it gets to the run-in there'll be constant jumps out of the group and it will be up to him to chase.
Definitely. Going with attacks I'm absolutely okay with (it's what makes him exciting, and if they stayed away he would have won), it's the unnecessary efforts he does to follow every single pace increase on climbs that maybe blunts his sprint.
It's the Cancellara problem. It's easy for me to tell him to just relax, be willing to lose, and let the race come back to you sometimes, but in reality that's a very hard thing to do!0 -
iainf72 wrote:frisbee wrote:Surely someone will be on the radio telling him what to do? Although he should really have enough experience now to work out when to make a single effective attack or wait for the sprint.
It's almost as if radios don't decide tactics on the road :P (which they don't, despite what people seem to think)
He's in a tough spot - If he's in a group and someone goes off the front, everyone will leave it to him to chase. But if he attacks or goes with an attack, the other guys will just sit in. It's the Cancellera gambit.
He needs a slightly stronger team who so he can have a worker with him in the tough finals.
I agree although sometimes you wonder if he/his DS could maybe save one or two of the team a bit more for the finale - as Carlton never tires of telling us Sagan does use his team up early. Obviously there are some finishes, Sheffield for example, where it'd be a big ask to come into the finish with a team mate but if he had had one you could almost have guaranteed the win.
edit - just read through and the same point has been made about 3 times in the last 5 posts.[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0 -
TheBigBean wrote:You're a very tough crowd.
Sean Kelly won 5 stages in the tour in his career. Sagan has won 4 stages and came very close is his fifth yesterday.
Oh but Kelly won lots of monuments. How many did he have at the age of 24?
He's a very talented 24 year old who is being judged as if he is a senior pro.
Kelly was relatively mature when he made his big breakthrough in 1983 Lombardy - 27 (though its not as if he wasn't a big winner before then). Some guys are up at the front all the time, but never quite make the breakthrough (of Kelly's contemporaries Etinne de Wilde comes to mind as as not having quite fulfilled his potential). Kelly also won green in 1989 without picking up a stage, so it's not easy. Sagan is exciting to watch and I'm sure he has plenty of fantastic rides to come. He certainly seems frustrated at not having won when he's interviewed. Not sure if that's a good sign or not?0 -
OP here. I know it's early to say but I think it's an interesting question. Since his TdF breakthrough, he has ridden really well and cruised to green jerseys but he has been nullified as a stage winner to a large extent. Just interested to see how people think this will be perceived in years to come if the pattern were to continue.
As for frustration, demonstrates his passion which is a positive but shows a lack of detachment which can be a negative if he needs to make a calculated decision in the heat of the moment.0 -
On a more general level, his palmares (wins and jerseys only) since signing for Liquigas / Cannondale:
2010:
Paris-Nice: (2 stages and points jersey)
Romandie: (1 stage)
California: (2 stages and points jersey)
2011:
Sardegnia: (3 stages, GC and points jersey)
California: (1 stage and points jersey)
Tour de Suisse: (2 stages and points jersey)
Poland: (2 stages, GC and points jersey)
Vuelta: (3 stages)
National RR Champion
Winner of GP Industria
2012:
Oman: (1 stage and points jersey)
Tirreno: (1 stage)
3 Days of De Panne: (1 stage)
California: (5 stages and points jersey)
Tour de Suisse: (4 stages and points jersey)
Tour de France: (3 stages and points jersey)
National RR Champion
2013:
Oman: (2 stages)
Tirreno: (2 stages)
3 Days of De Panne: (1 stage)
Winner Gent-Wevelgem
Winner Brabantse-Pijl
California: (2 stages and sprinters jersey)
Tour de Suisse: (2 stages and points jersey)
Tour de France (1 stage and points jersey)
USA Pro Cycling Challenge: (4 stages and sprinters jersey)
Tour of Alberta: (3 stages and sprinters jersey)
National RR Champion
Winner Gran Premio Citta di Camaiore
Winner GP Montreal
2014:
Oman: (1 stage)
Tirreno: (1 stage and points jersey)
3 Days of De Panne: (1 stage)
Winner E3 Harelbeke
California: (1 stage and points jersey)
Tour de Suisse: (1 stage and points jersey)
National RR Champion
So the question is: is he plateauing (having peaked early or because his condition is poor) or has his drop-off in results simply been because he's now so tightly marked? Or a bit of both? Ultimately, people have been aware he was bloody good for a few years now yet he had an excellent season in 2013. He doesn't seem as strong this year. A change of team is perhaps overdue.0 -
Sagan is great - I really hope he'll win a monument or two next season. His problem is he's like a kid with a new bike.0
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He'll almost certainly break Zabel's green jersey record0
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iainf72 wrote:frisbee wrote:Surely someone will be on the radio telling him what to do? Although he should really have enough experience now to work out when to make a single effective attack or wait for the sprint.
It's almost as if radios don't decide tactics on the road :P (which they don't, despite what people seem to think)
He's in a tough spot - If he's in a group and someone goes off the front, everyone will leave it to him to chase. But if he attacks or goes with an attack, the other guys will just sit in. It's the Cancellera gambit.
He needs a slightly stronger team who so he can have a worker with him in the tough finals.
This. When it comes to crunch time he is either out soloing it with a mixed group on a bumpy stage, or sitting on a pure sprinters wheel on the flat days. Needs a better team to support him when it gets to the pointy end to take him to the next level.0
