Tour of Flanders - odds

Daz555

Cancellara: 7/4
Sagan: 15/4
Boonen: 10/1
Vanmarcke: 12/1
Terpstra: 20/1
Stybar: 20/1
G: 25/1
Devolder: 33/1
Van Avermaet: 40/1
Degenkolb: 50/1
Paolini: 50/1
Sir Wiggo: 100/1

Canc is surely too short. Even as good as he is that is bloody daft odds - so much can go wrong!

The_Boy

Canc was odds on for P-R last year wasn''t he? Likewise Froome for Tdf this year. Madness backing at those sorts of prices, imo.

Fwiw, I've backed Devolder e/w* @ 67.00 and Gallopin e/w @ 101.00. Paulini is tempting but waiting on the possibility that bet365 might open a place market.

edit: *I don't normally back each way in bike racing because the terms are awful (usually 1/4 odds 1,2,3) but was wanting to get on Devolder before the price came in.

RichN95.

I don't think those odds are too short. If this race was run 11 times would I expect him to win four or more? I think I would.

But the returns are poor so an each way bet on another rider is more likely to get you a lobster dinner.

The_Boy

7/4 (though best I can find is 13/8) represents an implied probability of over 36%. 10/1 (best I can find is 8s) represents an implied probability of a little over 9%. I know who, at those prices, looks the better value.

But I'm the sort of shit gambler who spends ages pricing up a book, finding (what I think is) the value, looking for possible oversights on the part of the bookies and then plumps for my old favs because I just can't bring myself to cheer on Maxim Iglinsky in L-B-L, even if he is a ridiculous 151.00.

You can probably tell I've still not quite got over that one.

TheBigBean

I think Degenkolb is at least twice as likely to win as Wiggins. That aside, Degenkolb may offer some value.

Richmond Racer

TheBigBean wrote:

I think Degenkolb is at least twice as likely to win as Wiggins. That aside, Degenkolb may offer some value.

You just know some Brits are going to throw some money* at the Wiggins odds


*waste

disgruntledgoat

If Bradley Wiggins wins I'll pay you all out.

The_Boy

Richmond Racer wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

I think Degenkolb is at least twice as likely to win as Wiggins. That aside, Degenkolb may offer some value.

You just know some Brits are going to throw some money* at the Wiggins odds


*waste

Often worth checking with the likes of PMU if you're looking to back British riders. No patriotic money causing prices to be backed in. The reverse is also true - shit prices available about any French riders from French bookies.

milton50

There's some pretty good each way bets there beacuse of the big gap between Sagan and the rest. Thomas at 25-1 looks a decent each way chance. It's just there's always a nagging doubt as to whether he can avoid a crash of some kind.

I think Stybar is pure quality but he's probably a better bet for Roubaix.

tailwindhome

Daz555 wrote:

Sagan: 15/4


edit: *I don't normally back each way in bike racing because the terms are awful (usually 1/4 odds 1,2,3) but was wanting to get on Devolder before the price came in.

So if I put £40 on Sagan each way I get back £77.5 (£37.5 plus my stake)if he gets on the podium?

Is that correct?

The_Boy

TailWindHome wrote:

Daz555 wrote:

Sagan: 15/4


edit: *I don't normally back each way in bike racing because the terms are awful (usually 1/4 odds 1,2,3) but was wanting to get on Devolder before the price came in.

So if I put £40 on Sagan each way I get back £77.5 (£37.5 plus my stake)if he gets on the podium?

Is that correct?

Assuming you get 15/4 and the bookie you place your bet with is paying 1/4 the odds the place, then yes. £80.00 total stake, £267.50 total return (£187.50 profit) if he wins, £77.50 total return (£2.50 loss) if he places.

edit: assuming my arithmetic is correct. I *am* very tired today so, you know...

tailwindhome

The_Boy wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Daz555 wrote:

Sagan: 15/4


edit: *I don't normally back each way in bike racing because the terms are awful (usually 1/4 odds 1,2,3) but was wanting to get on Devolder before the price came in.

So if I put £40 on Sagan each way I get back £77.5 (£37.5 plus my stake)if he gets on the podium?

Is that correct?

Assuming you get 15/4 and the bookie you place your bet with is paying 1/4 the odds the place, then yes. £80.00 total stake, £267.50 total return (£187.50 profit) if he wins, £77.50 total return (£2.50 loss) if he places.

edit: assuming my arithmetic is correct. I *am* very tired today so, you know...

Ah! I see now. An each way bet actually is 2 bets in one. 'spose that's why its called each way.

You can maybe see that I'm not a gambler

thomthom

Odds on favorites in cycling are always ridiculous, considering how much can go happen during a race.

RichN95.

TailWindHome wrote:

Ah! I see now. An each way bet actually is 2 bets in one. 'spose that's why its called each way.

Yeah, it's half on him to win and half on him to come top 3 or 4 (it depends). For odds of 4/1 or less you will actually lose money if he podiums but does not win.
Some bookies offer a straight top 3 market where you are just betting on them coming in the top 3 (currently Cancellara 1/2, Sagan 3/4, Boonen 11/10 at Unibet)

The_Boy

RichN95 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Ah! I see now. An each way bet actually is 2 bets in one. 'spose that's why its called each way.

Some bookies offer a straight top 3 market where you are just betting on them coming in the top 3 (currently Cancellara 1/2, Sagan 3/4, Boonen 11/10 at Unibet)

Which bookies? I've been looking for that very thing.

edit: bugger, should read posts properly before hitting reply. Curse me and my excitable self...

meagain

I view every gamble as 50/50 - either X happens or it doesn't, X wins or doesn't. So I don't bet.

RichN95.

The_Boy wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Ah! I see now. An each way bet actually is 2 bets in one. 'spose that's why its called each way.

Some bookies offer a straight top 3 market where you are just betting on them coming in the top 3 (currently Cancellara 1/2, Sagan 3/4, Boonen 11/10 at Unibet)

Which bookies? I've been looking for that very thing.

edit: bugger, should read posts properly before hitting reply. Curse me and my excitable self...

Use the website www.oddschecker.com
They tell you all the odds that are available at all the major bookies.

gsk82

i've just opened an account with ladbrokes through quidco. i placed the below four bets and for that will get £20 cash back and a £20 free bet (for roubaix)

Cancellara £5 at 7/4
Thomas £5 e/w at 25/1
Degenkolb £5 e/w at 33/1
Kristoff £5 e/w at 40/1

RichN95.

gsk82 wrote:

i've just opened an account with ladbrokes through quidco. i placed the below four bets and for that will get £20 cash back and a £20 free bet (for roubaix)

Cancellara £5 at 7/4
Thomas £5 e/w at 25/1
Degenkolb £5 e/w at 33/1
Kristoff £5 e/w at 40/1

For the free bet, if you win you will only get the profit back, not the £20 stake as well

TheBigBean

You should all get on Betfair. I haven't bet with a traditional bookie for a long time.

The_Boy

betfair is pretty rank for cycling betting, tbf - not enough liquidity in the markets outside of Tour.

thomthom

RichN95 wrote:

gsk82 wrote:

i've just opened an account with ladbrokes through quidco. i placed the below four bets and for that will get £20 cash back and a £20 free bet (for roubaix)

Cancellara £5 at 7/4
Thomas £5 e/w at 25/1
Degenkolb £5 e/w at 33/1
Kristoff £5 e/w at 40/1

For the free bet, if you win you will only get the profit back, not the £20 stake as well

Does he even get the profit back? I'd 'bet' he would have to play the damn thing 20 times to get it back..

The_Boy

ThomThom wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

gsk82 wrote:

i've just opened an account with ladbrokes through quidco. i placed the below four bets and for that will get £20 cash back and a £20 free bet (for roubaix)

Cancellara £5 at 7/4
Thomas £5 e/w at 25/1
Degenkolb £5 e/w at 33/1
Kristoff £5 e/w at 40/1

For the free bet, if you win you will only get the profit back, not the £20 stake as well

Does he even get the profit back? I'd 'bet' he would have to play the damn thing 20 times to get it back..

Saw a bingo add the other night that had an offer along those lines. Except the winnings had to be played through something absurd like 200 times before being withdrawable. Criminal.

stagehopper

ThomThom wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

gsk82 wrote:

i've just opened an account with ladbrokes through quidco. i placed the below four bets and for that will get £20 cash back and a £20 free bet (for roubaix)

Cancellara £5 at 7/4
Thomas £5 e/w at 25/1
Degenkolb £5 e/w at 33/1
Kristoff £5 e/w at 40/1

For the free bet, if you win you will only get the profit back, not the £20 stake as well

Does he even get the profit back? I'd 'bet' he would have to play the damn thing 20 times to get it back..

Not with sports betting - get the winnings straight away and available to withdraw immediately (well at least with the numerous offers I've taken up with many bookies) though you don't get your stake back.

milton50

The_Boy wrote:

betfair is pretty rank for cycling betting, tbf - not enough liquidity in the markets outside of Tour.

Yeh, I find Betfair to be the best online bookie for most sports (especially football) because of the huge amount of options available. But for Flanders the only market is outright win.

By the way Betfair have taken Geraint Thomas into 18-1. So anyone thinking of putting an each way on him might want to do it soon before others follow suit.

Der Kaiser

I confidently predict that the winner at the Tour of Flanders will be the bookies. Same as the Grand National, Boat Race etc.

Ever seen a poor bookmaker?

DeVlaeminck

Boonen looks value at 10-1, depending on whether his mind is in the right place, and who could blame him if it wasn't. For the last few years people seem to have been writing him off but when he finishes Flanders or Roubaix he has always won or been the rider who took the fight to Cancellera.

I think Cancellera's odds are a touch short - if only because Quickstep are so strong they should be able to work a tactic to make it very hard for him - but there is going to have to be a degree of riding to make Cancellera lose.

TheBigBean

Der Kaiser wrote:

Ever seen a poor bookmaker?

Back in the day when they took risks and made the market, yes. See Gary Wiltshire (although he made all his money back).

Now, no, because they just offload all the risk on to the exchanges and essentially become a front for people not capable of betting directly on an exchange.

As noted above, there isn't that much liquidity on the exchanges for cycling, so there is an element of traditional market maker about it, but for the same reason there isn't much liquidity on the exchanges, there is also not much compeition amongst bookies in cycling, so I would still just use an exchange. For example, the spread on Degenkolb on Betfair is 60-75 (really not great), but is still substanially better than 16/1 at Bet Victor (worst odds).

The_Boy

Der Kaiser wrote:

I confidently predict that the winner at the Tour of Flanders will be the bookies. Same as the Grand National, Boat Race etc.

Ever seen a poor bookmaker?

Pretty sure Barney Curley was a bookie who went bankrupt before moving into horse training and betting coups. More specifically, bookies will often make a loss on individual events. The trick is to make sure you win more when you win than you lose when you lose - hence the overrounds.

joelsim

stagehopper wrote:

ThomThom wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

gsk82 wrote:

i've just opened an account with ladbrokes through quidco. i placed the below four bets and for that will get £20 cash back and a £20 free bet (for roubaix)

Cancellara £5 at 7/4
Thomas £5 e/w at 25/1
Degenkolb £5 e/w at 33/1
Kristoff £5 e/w at 40/1

For the free bet, if you win you will only get the profit back, not the £20 stake as well

Does he even get the profit back? I'd 'bet' he would have to play the damn thing 20 times to get it back..

Not with sports betting - get the winnings straight away and available to withdraw immediately (well at least with the numerous offers I've taken up with many bookies) though you don't get your stake back.

bwin do that. I will never use them again. It's totally wrong and should be outlawed. For them to advertise a free bet and then to tell you that you have to then spend about ten times that amount before you are able to withdraw the money is very dishonest.

joelsim

Might have a cheeky couple of quid EW on Gallopin and Van Keirsbulck at 150/1.