Scottish Independence

RideOnTime

I note it's St Andrews day, today. Bit concerned thst you Scots will spoil are nice Union Flag if you take the blue bits out. Otherwise Scottish Independence I couldn't give a .... I suspect a lot of others can't either except a few politicans.

But then I have posted about it - hyprocrite in the making...

Silly Old Hector

The irony of the Scots taking the blue bits of the Union Flag, leaving it white and red. Scotland is prone to be socialist and has never voted for a Conservative government.

daviesee

Silly Old Hector wrote:

The irony of the Scots taking the blue bits of the Union Flag, leaving it white and red. Scotland is prone to be socialist and has never voted for a Conservative government.

Not true.
"The Unionist Party (unionist in the sense of preserving the United Kingdom), in alliance with a small number of Liberal Unionist and National Liberal politicians, had always taken the Conservative whip at Westminster and had been the dominant force in Scottish politics from the 1930s to the late 1950s."

and

"The last time that the Conservatives won the most seats in Scotland was in the general election of 1955."

So not "never".

MattC59

When do I get to get my say and vote for English independence from Scotland ?

Actually, if I rent a house in Scotland, as a resident do I get to vote ?

Silly Old Hector

daviesee wrote:

Silly Old Hector wrote:

The irony of the Scots taking the blue bits of the Union Flag, leaving it white and red. Scotland is prone to be socialist and has never voted for a Conservative government.

Not true.
"The Unionist Party (unionist in the sense of preserving the United Kingdom), in alliance with a small number of Liberal Unionist and National Liberal politicians, had always taken the Conservative whip at Westminster and had been the dominant force in Scottish politics from the 1930s to the late 1950s."

and

"The last time that the Conservatives won the most seats in Scotland was in the general election of 1955."

So not "never".

Oops - off to stand in the naughty corner. But I am a child of Thatcher's time, so can't see it changing in the near term.....

If you live in Scotland, you will be able to vote, but you would need to check when the cut-off date is on the Electoral Register.

Nairnster

Anyone who is deciding to vote "Yes" based on the presumptions that Salmond is making, is going to be in for a rude awakening I feel.

Still way too many unanswered questions for anyone to make a proper decision on if it will be good for Scotland or not, and lots of statements of "so called fact" that wouldn't be purely up to Scotland if they got independence.

ugo.santalucia

Are they budgeting on oil revenue that is drying out at an alarming rate?

Nairnster

I am still reading the white paper, but amongst the ramblings:

he is saying they will keep the Pound (I think that the countries remaining in the UK - or whatever that will become may have some say in that).

I am not sure what they would be using to back up an Independent Scottish Currency (no gold reserves that I know of, not sure if Haggis/Buckfast) would be sufficient.

Scottish Defence Force - obviously there may be some members of the current UK Armed Forces who take up the offer to leave and transfer to this, but 20,000? And of those that do, will they be the ones required to train the new recruits?

Taxes - the experts are saying that Scotlands taxes would have to rise significantly, and yet Salmond is saying the opposite.

It all stinks of typical campaigning. Saying what he needs to so he can get the votes he wants. The people will only realise it was all bollocks when its already too late.

daviesee

Nairnster wrote:

I am still reading the white paper, but amongst the ramblings:

he is saying they will keep the Pound (I think that the countries remaining in the UK - or whatever that will become may have some say in that).
Any Country can use the Pound as a currency. Without permission. They just have no say in interest rates or value. Scotland could equally use the U.S. Dollar or the Euro.

I am not sure what they would be using to back up an Independent Scottish Currency (no gold reserves that I know of, not sure if Haggis/Buckfast) would be sufficient.
Gold reserves would be split in the "divorce", along with the debt.

Scottish Defence Force - obviously there may be some members of the current UK Armed Forces who take up the offer to leave and transfer to this, but 20,000? And of those that do, will they be the ones required to train the new recruits?
It would be presumed so.

Taxes - the experts are saying that Scotlands taxes would have to rise significantly, and yet Salmond is saying the opposite.
Lies, damned lies and statistics. I expect to hear plenty of all three from both sides of the argument. Everything from both sides is a prediction and no one knows for certain how anything will pan out.

It all stinks of typical campaigning. Saying what he needs to so he can get the votes he wants. The people will only realise it was all **** when its already too late.
Politicians politicking. It will all be **** whatever the outcome.

ugo.santalucia wrote:

Are they budgeting on oil revenue that is drying out at an alarming rate?

Not as fast as some are making out. And it will support a population of 5 million a lot longer than a population of 60 million.

MattC59 wrote:

When do I get to get my say and vote for English independence from Scotland ?

Actually, if I rent a house in Scotland, as a resident do I get to vote ?

Anytime you petition enough English MPs to go for it. The English have as much right.
If you are on the electoral role, yes.

crescent

Nairnster wrote:

It all stinks of typical campaigning. Saying what he needs to so he can get the votes he wants. The people will only realise it was all **** when its already too late.

Many of us are already aware.
I was never a huge supporter of Independence to start with but where Alex Salmond totally lost me was a few years ago when he held up Ireland and Iceland as two role models for an independent Scottish economy. About ten days later the a**e fell out their financial worlds. Nice one!

Bozman

I may have heard this wrong, but If Scotland do gain independence won't Labour be shafted under the current voting system.

finchy

Crescent wrote:

Nairnster wrote:

It all stinks of typical campaigning. Saying what he needs to so he can get the votes he wants. The people will only realise it was all **** when its already too late.

Many of us are already aware.
I was never a huge supporter of Independence to start with but where Alex Salmond totally lost me was a few years ago when he held up Ireland and Iceland as two role models for an independent Scottish economy. About ten days later the a**e fell out their financial worlds. Nice one!

Erm, well I hate to break this to you, but the current Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom also held Ireland up as a model economy. That's why I have absolutely no sympathy for Tories who say that they're just trying to clean up Labour's mess - you supported the same f**king policies!

Anyway, back to Scotland. From what I understand, the SNP wants to base the economy on other northern European economies - high value exports and a strong welfare state. It would be interesting to see if part of the UK could completely change its economic model, how long it would take and what the results are.

finchy

Bozman wrote:

I may have heard this wrong, but If Scotland do gain independence won't Labour be shafted under the current voting system.

I doubt it in the long term. People always blame the other side for all of the country's woes. When the economic cycle carries on in its usual way, with booms and busts, people will realise that you can't just blame everything on Labour/Tories.

Pross

My worry is that if they get to keep the pound and become independant then they could destroy the rest of the UK economy as they seem intent on committing to high spending without any obvious source of income to cover it.

daviesee

Pross wrote:

My worry is that if they get to keep the pound and become independant then they could destroy the rest of the UK economy as they seem intent on committing to high spending without any obvious source of income to cover it.

Seeing a most of them are socialists then this will make complete sense to Labour voters.

Nairnster

The problem lies in that Salmond says they will continue to use the pound in the same way they do, i.e involved in decisions relating to interset rates etc. In reality, Wales for example have already said they would veto a Sterling zone.

The SNP have not outlined a backup plan relating to their currency, but have hinted at attempting to blackmail the rest of the UK into a currency pact by threatening to abandon their responsibility relating to national debt if they do not get the Sterling Zone.

Scotland will not be getting off to a good start in the eyes of the EU they will be asking to join, if they have walked away from their financial responsibilities.

daviesee

Nairnster wrote:

The problem lies in that Salmond says they will continue to use the pound in the same way they do, i.e involved in decisions relating to interset rates etc. In reality, Wales for example have already said they would veto a Sterling zone.

The SNP have not outlined a backup plan relating to their currency, but have hinted at attempting to blackmail the rest of the UK into a currency pact by threatening to abandon their responsibility relating to national debt if they do not get the Sterling Zone.

Scotland will not be getting off to a good start in the eyes of the EU they will be asking to join, if they have walked away from their financial responsibilities.

Sterling is a fully convertible reserve currency, just like the US dollar and the euro. Any country in the world can, if it wishes, make use of such a currency for both domestic and external transactions. Even Communist Cuba in effect utilises the US dollar, as a hard currency in parallel to its own soft peso, and it certainly does not ask permission from Washington to do this. Montenegro has adopted the euro, without being a member of the European Union or of its eurozone.

Numerous Central American and Caribbean nations use the dollar in the same way, as do some oil-producers. Many African nations use the euro. In all these cases, the countries concerned often have a local currency as well, but pegged to the dollar or euro so that some of the benefits of a common currency accrue. As the dollar and the euro are also fully convertible reserve currencies, there is nothing the United States or the European Central Bank could do to stop this even if they wanted to (which they do not).

c40nl12

not sure if Haggis/Buckfast

Imagine saying a small African country was basing their independence on bongo drums and shiny beads !!

Nairnster

If its as easy as Scotland just using it, why is it all over the financial websites/papers that UK parliament will not agree and that wales will veto it?
They may be able to USE it, but not with any say in anything else relating to it. And it is not just using it that Salmond is saying is going to happen.

Daviesee, you can quote all that stuff you want, but just using the pound is not what Salmond is saying will happen.

IMO Scotland will regret independence if they get it. And how can you be truely independent if you dont even have the confidence to have your own currency. Salmond wants to have his cake and eat it. He makes a great case for Devolution Plus.

Stevo_666

Bozman wrote:

I may have heard this wrong, but If Scotland do gain independence won't Labour be shafted under the current voting system.

This is why I want Scottish independence. Two birds with one stone :P

daviesee

Nairnster wrote:

If its as easy as Scotland just using it, why is it all over the financial websites/papers that UK parliament will not agree and that wales will veto it?
They may be able to USE it, but not with any say in anything else relating to it. And it is not just using it that Salmond is saying is going to happen.

Daviesee, you can quote all that stuff you want, but just using the pound is not what Salmond is saying will happen.

IMO Scotland will regret independence if they get it. And how can you be truely independent if you dont even have the confidence to have your own currency. Salmond wants to have his cake and eat it. He makes a great case for Devolution Plus.

1. All part of the propaganda war, and if Salmond is saying that then he is talking b0llocks.
2. As 1.
3. Just an opinion based on time scales and my prediction of the future.
If Scotland goes independent they will use the Pound as a currency (without any say or controls) until they can enter the Euro. The other options are to use the Euro or the Dollar but using the Pound would make the "divorce" easier. A sole Scottish currency is a non-starter. You may say that going into the Euro is stupid and not truly independent but my crystal glass also sees the UK being in the Euro anyway. An independent Scotland will simply be cutting out the middle man that is Westminster.
4. Salmond can't really lose. He either gets the independence that he wants or he will take credit for getting all the bribes to keep us in.

I am of the opinion that it won't happen but these are interesting times and the poles are closer than I thought.

I said on here back when this was announced that the best way for Westminster to keep us in, is to keep quiet and let Alex dig a hole for himself. Any meddling will just rub people's backs up.

Nairnster

Yeah, I am not disagreeing with you, I just think we were talking at crossed purposes.

It in some way goes to highlight the lack of clear answers to probably the majority of the Scottish population. If its not clear to those who are actually taking notice, what the hell the big buffoon means/wants, then how the people who are taking no notice to the real issues are meant to make a proper decision is amazing.

By the way, i was joking when I suggested an independent currency being backed by Haggis and Buckfast. we all know it would be deep fried mars bars and Irn Bru

I know that as an Englishman living in Scotland, I hope whichever way it goes, it works out for Scotland. I have no desire for them to fail. I just hope that people are given the FACTS so they can decide on those, rather than the opinions I here daily up here from so many of voting yes, but then when asked why it will be better, they cant even give one good reason.

arran77

Let them go, who needs you anyway :P

daviesee

Nairnster wrote:

Yeah, I am not disagreeing with you, I just think we were talking at crossed purposes.

Yeah.
Everyone on the electoral role needs one of these

For "information" coming from both sides.

Pross

Bozman wrote:

I may have heard this wrong, but If Scotland do gain independence won't Labour be shafted under the current voting system.

For that reason I can never understand why Cameron puts on a pretence of fighting against Scottish independence.

Stevo_666

arran77 wrote:

Let them go, who needs you anyway :P

The idea of passport checks for economic migrants at Hadrian's Wall has some appeal. From a London dwellers point of view, the Scots are like piles. When they come down and they go back up again, they're fine: when they come down and they stay down, they're a pain in the arse

daviesee

Pross wrote:

Bozman wrote:

I may have heard this wrong, but If Scotland do gain independence won't Labour be shafted under the current voting system.

For that reason I can never understand why Cameron puts on a pretence of fighting against Scottish independence.

One of the reasons that I am undecided.
Whenever someone is trying to get me on their side, I always ask, what is in it for them?

MattC59

A couple of years ago I read a paper* that stated that the net flow of cash between the treasury (or whatever, I can't remember the terminology) and Scotland, was £32 per head of the Scottish population, per week, into Scotland. That was taking into account all revenue from oil and gas.

With a population of around 5.2 million, that's around £8.6 billion that Scotland will be short of annually, which goes some way to supporting claims that Scotland will need to considerably increased taxes if they get independence.

*(Sorry, can't remember where I found the paper)

daviesee

MattC59 wrote:

A couple of years ago I read a paper* that stated that the net flow of cash between the treasury (or whatever, I can't remember the terminology) and Scotland, was £32 per head of the Scottish population, per week, into Scotland. That was taking into account all revenue from oil and gas.

With a population of around 5.2 million, that's around £8.6 billion that Scotland will be short of annually, which goes some way to supporting claims that Scotland will need to considerably increased taxes if they get independence.

*(Sorry, can't remember where I found the paper)

See. Here is where the issue highlights the vacuity of people.
If they are committed to independence then being a few bob short shouldn't matter.
People in other Countries have died fighting for independence.
Voting whether you are £500 up or down is a selfish act. It should be a matter of principle.

mr_goo

I listened to Salmond and Sturgeon (funny that they both have fish related surnames) on the radio when they launched the independence document during the week. They both made Scotland sound like a 'nirvana', I was nearly taken in and considered putting the house on the market in the afternoon with a view to moving up to the Highlands. The whole document is based on trade offs and acceptances with both the remaining UK and the EU. The monetary policy is immediately flawed, how can and independent nation retain the £ sterling, as it will still be influenced by the Bank of England, surely something Scotland would wish to sever ties with.

My personal thoughts are that the push for independence is purely driven by a nationalistic hatred (by some) of the English and past histories.

C J Sansom writes a very interesting article at the back of his latest novel Dominion. In it he decries the SNPs move for an independent Scotland, and states

" the empty populist bonhomie of Alex Salmond, the prospective break-up of Britain is already creating a new culture of hostility and bitterness on both sides of the Border."

Sansom, from Edinburgh, adds: "A party which is often referred to by its members, as the SNP is, as the National Movement should send a chill down the spine of anyone who remembers what those words have often meant in Europe."

He says in his notes: "I find it heartbreaking – literally heartbreaking – that my own country, Britain, which was less prone to domestic nationalist extremism between the wars than most, is increasingly falling victim to the ideologies of nationalist parties."

He adds: "It does not take more than a casual glance at its history to show that the SNP have never had any interest in the practical consequences of independence."

The above are snippets from his notes, and I suggest that if you can get your hands on a copy of the book, it's quite a reasonable read (Shardlake series are infinitely better as is Winter in Madrid).

MattC59

MattC59 wrote:

A couple of years ago I read a paper* that stated that the net flow of cash between the treasury (or whatever, I can't remember the terminology) and Scotland, was £32 per head of the Scottish population, per week, into Scotland. That was taking into account all revenue from oil and gas.

With a population of around 5.2 million, that's around £8.6 billion that Scotland will be short of annually, which goes some way to supporting claims that Scotland will need to considerably increased taxes if they get independence.

*(Sorry, can't remember where I found the paper)

Thinking about it, maybe independence is a good thing, I'm sure the remaining UK could do with an additional £8.6 billion per year !