La Gazzetta on Horner

frenchfighter
frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
edited October 2013 in Pro race
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/gazzett ... the-vuelta
Contador is the Greatest
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Comments

  • Paul 8v
    Paul 8v Posts: 5,458
    Hmm, part of me thinks it doesn't look normal, the other part thinks no-one would be that stupid to do it so blatantly so it might be true.
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  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,311
    Mosquera, then Cobo, then Horner... is there any credibility left in the Vuelta?
    left the forum March 2023
  • Crankbrother
    Crankbrother Posts: 1,695
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    Mosquera, then Cobo, then Horner... is there any credibility left in the Vuelta?

    Contador/Schleck (convicted doper/sudden rapid decline), Wiggins (refuses to defend ... something to hide that he feels he can't remotely compete?) then Froome (nobody to top 5 finishes in the 4 GT's he has contended) ... as much as in the TdF I guess ...
  • Richmond Racer
    Richmond Racer Posts: 8,561
    Wiggins 'refuses to defend' his Tour title this year?

    Oh thats priceless, even for you o Crank
  • Crankbrother
    Crankbrother Posts: 1,695
    Richmond Racer wrote:
    Wiggins 'refuses to defend' his Tour title this year?

    Oh thats priceless, even for you o Crank

    Contador manages to compete to the best of his ability in any TdF he has been allowed to ride since winning 7 TdF's ago, in spite of route or team politics ... Lesson to be learnt for 'our' hero ... after all, what does a Knight have to afraid of? Nothing I can 'think' of ...
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    Crankbrother wrote:
    Richmond Racer wrote:
    Wiggins 'refuses to defend' his Tour title this year?

    Oh thats priceless, even for you o Crank

    Contador manages to compete to the best of his ability in any TdF he has been allowed to ride since winning 7 TdF's ago, in spite of route or team politics ... Lesson to be learnt for 'our' hero ... after all, what does a Knight have to afraid of? Nothing I can 'think' of ...
    He doesn't have anything to be afraid of. However, he does have a different mentality than almost all cyclists - that of an Olympian. Almost all of his career has been based around four year Olympic cycles - everything building to one long term target which, when achieved, is followed by considerable downtime. Last year was just the end point of another such cycle. He's not someone who is used to performing at a steady level year after year.

    But this has got nothing to do with Horner so I'll make an observation about that.

    With the power estimates there are several different methods* of coming up with the final figure. Two of the most popular seem to be the CPL (Cycling Power Lab) equation and Dr Ferrari's formula. I noticed that one of the more prominent number crunchers on twitter, who usually uses CPL, switched to Ferrari's method for yesterday's climb. Why would that be? Could it be that Ferrari's relies on VAM - a figure which skews high for steeper climbs like yesterday's, thus giving a higher power?

    Lies, damned lies and statistics.



    (*Another method is Vayer's which is done by phoning up whoever is paying him and asking what number he wants.)
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • napoleond
    napoleond Posts: 5,992
    The only way to get the actual power data /w/kg is by looking at the actual power data and weighing the rider.

    Any 'equations' IMO are boll0cks - rough estimates...

    I've tried it on my own rides and come up with quite different figures to reality.
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  • Mikey23
    Mikey23 Posts: 5,306
    I wonder how many calories strava said he used... That will sort it out for sure
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    We should also remember that this is the same Gazzetta which calculated that Froome did 480 Watts in the first Tour TT (which lead to Marco Pinotti saying if it was actually over 430 he'd eat a live chicken). Kerrison told David Walsh it was about 415 watts.

    In your maths lessons at school you were told to show your working and not just put down the answer. Few of the estimators ever do.

    (If Antoine Vayer was on Countdown, in the numbers round trying to get 513, he would say he got 513 and when asked how he got it would demand that Rachel Riley buy his magazine for ten quid)
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • mike6
    mike6 Posts: 1,199
    Crankbrother wrote:
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    Mosquera, then Cobo, then Horner... is there any credibility left in the Vuelta?

    Contador/Schleck (convicted doper/sudden rapid decline), Wiggins (refuses to defend ... something to hide that he feels he can't remotely compete?) then Froome (nobody to top 5 finishes in the 4 GT's he has contended) ... as much as in the TdF I guess ...

    Refused to defend his title? What rubbish. He was told by Sky management, and it was reported in the press, so we all, including you, knew that Froome was going to be team leader for the Tour in 2013 and that Wiggins was going to be doing the Giro.
  • ocdupalais
    ocdupalais Posts: 4,317
    Chris Horner is a bloke on a bike doing amazing performances either on or not on drugs.
    He has published his power data on the website of arguably the most trusted/common manufacturer of the equipment that ACTUALLY MEASURES POWER OUTPUTS.


    La Gazzetta is a newspaper trying to sell copies by using their traditional journalistic tactics of attention-seeking headlines, eyebrow-raising content ...followed by doubt-inducing caveats about their "experts", their agenda and the fact that ALL OF THEIR FIGURES ARE CONJECTURE.
  • negativelycra
    negativelycra Posts: 225
    Did someone really just claim that Wiggins must be a doper because proven cheat Contador repeatedly rides well in the TdF "when he is allowed" (as in not on a timed ban for doping)?

    You sir, have no respect for logic.
    [urlhttp://veloviewer.com/SigImage.php?a=f3252&r=3&c=5&u=I&g=s&f=abcdefghij&z=a.png]Veloviewer[/url]
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,725
    Err, this is a thread on Chris Horner.
    Let's try not to send yet another thread Skywards.
    Ignore the bait.

    Velonews follow up on Gazzetta's claims:
    http://velonews.competitor.com/2013/09/ ... lta_302720
    Nibali told Italy’s La Gazzetta dello Sport newspaper, “I can’t climb at 500 watts. I was going at 430 watts and that guy accelerated. What could I do?”

    Says it all, I suppose.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • greasedscotsman
    greasedscotsman Posts: 6,962
    So how many watts was Rodriguez putting out yesterday?
  • frenchfighter
    frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    Have a read of Horner's comments after the stage yesterday which can be seen on cyclingnews. You have to feel a little sorry for him.

    I dont find his performances here credible but at the same time I think that the other top three being under par is making him seem better than usual. Anyone can see that Valv and JRod have got a much reduced firepower and anyone who watched Nibali in the earlier season knows that he is miles off. The guy did not just beat his opposition but he crushed them like Contador did in 2011.

    One of my favourite races was one where Horner and Contador were on Astana and Horner destroyed the majority of the field with such class before Contador unleashed his magic - I will post the video later.

    Interesting comments by Nibali.
    Contador is the Greatest
  • FJS
    FJS Posts: 4,820
    Blazing Saddles wrote:
    Velonews follow up on Gazzetta's claims:
    http://velonews.competitor.com/2013/09/ ... lta_302720

    This is such poor journalism, comparing VAMs and power on a 16 minute climb with much longer climbs. "If he keeps riding like he did yesterday, when he reportedly set a new VAM record" - what utter rubbish. Gilbert's VAM on the Cauberg is something like 2500. I reckon I can get a VAM of 10,000 on my local speed bumb
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,725
    FJS wrote:
    Blazing Saddles wrote:
    Velonews follow up on Gazzetta's claims:
    http://velonews.competitor.com/2013/09/ ... lta_302720

    This is such poor journalism, comparing VAMs and power on a 16 minute climb with much longer climbs. "If he keeps riding like he did yesterday, when he reportedly set a new VAM record" - what utter rubbish. Gilbert's VAM on the Cauberg is something like 2500. I reckon I can get a VAM of 10,000 on my local speed bumb


    Certainly true in respect of Ventoux.
    Verbier is a lot closer though, at around 21 minutes.
    It's all pseudo science stuff.
    Like I say, I'd love to know how to factor in his age..................but I don't.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • Paul 8v
    Paul 8v Posts: 5,458
    Basically it's all just a bunch of people clutching at straws, the only way to tell if someone is cheating is if there is a positive test. (And the UCI don't 'make it go away') It would be absolutely terrible for the sport if that happened in such a high profile race.
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  • iainf72
    iainf72 Posts: 15,784
    If you use that patented "iainf72 GT potential formula" , Horner doing well is a lot less surprising than Wiggins or Froome's break throughs.

    It boils down to whether you like him - or more specifically if you dislike him whether you think he's doing something dodgy.

    He's an outlier. But he might be an outlier with doping, or without. Who knows.
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,434
    iainf72 wrote:
    "iainf72 GT potential formula"

    Can you elaborate on this?
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  • greasedscotsman
    greasedscotsman Posts: 6,962
    Blazing Saddles wrote:
    Like I say, I'd love to know how to factor in his age..................but I don't.

    You could try this?

    http://www.rugbyrcc.org.uk/vets/vets_table25.htm

    :D
  • iainf72
    iainf72 Posts: 15,784
    TailWindHome wrote:
    iainf72 wrote:
    "iainf72 GT potential formula"

    Can you elaborate on this?

    Take all grand tour finishes before they got into a podium position. Divide by number of grand tours.
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • gpreeves
    gpreeves Posts: 454
    FJS wrote:
    Blazing Saddles wrote:
    Velonews follow up on Gazzetta's claims:
    http://velonews.competitor.com/2013/09/ ... lta_302720

    This is such poor journalism, comparing VAMs and power on a 16 minute climb with much longer climbs. "If he keeps riding like he did yesterday, when he reportedly set a new VAM record" - what utter rubbish. Gilbert's VAM on the Cauberg is something like 2500. I reckon I can get a VAM of 10,000 on my local speed bumb

    Exactly. I was dismissive of this methodology during the Tour and see no reason to think differently now that it's being used to "analyse" the performances of a rider I don't particularly like.

    Even if we had accurate times for every rider on the climb, there are too many factors that contribute to these times that we can't/don't quantify or observe: wind speed, team mates (on lower gradients), fatigue from previous stages, cumulative fatigue over the course of season, road surface, weather and length of climb are all variables that need to be included in order for the (gu)estimation to be unbiased.

    To Horner's credit he has released his power data from his win on Stage 10:

    http://www.srm.de/news/road-cycling/vuelta-a-espana-stage-10/

    Apparently his output on the final climb averaged 393W over 15 minutes. Any estimation of his power to weight ratio will be biased by the fact we don't actually know his weight during the climb.

    If you can believe that Horner hasn't fiddled with the data to lower his power figures, it leads me to think that Nibali might have been employing a spot of gamesmanship with his 430W claim. If Horner was able to drop Nibali on Stage 10 by averaging 393W, then there's no reason to think he wouldn't have been able to do the same on Stage 18 too - unless Nibali was performing below his usual levels for some reason.

    Even if we knew Horner's weight, calculating his P-to-W ratio would be largely academic. The majority of us really have no idea what levels are physiologically possible over a given time, other than having once read somewhere that anything over 6.x W/kg for t minutes is suspicious - the values of x and t varying dependent on the scepticism of your source.

    Apologies for the essay.
  • MrTapir
    MrTapir Posts: 1,206
    The SRM site says he is racing at about 65kg so for the 393 watts that is 6.04 w/kg.
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,311
    My VAM is over 1000 for a 10-15 minutes climb; 900-950 for a 30 minutes climb and 800-850 for a 90 minutes climb... Then of course there are good days and bad days and even super days... I once did the Aubisque at 950 VAM (followed by the Tourmalet at 700 or so... :( )
    left the forum March 2023
  • gpreeves
    gpreeves Posts: 454
    MrTapir wrote:
    The SRM site says he is racing at about 65kg so for the 393 watts that is 6.04 w/kg.

    While I see no reason to dispute this figure, I deliberately neglected to mention it in my original post.

    I've seen discussions on other forums and blogs veer off into attempts to weigh Horner through assessing his physique on TV coverage. As one of the more reasonable forums I didn't want to risk us stooping to that sort of conjecture.
  • deejay
    deejay Posts: 3,138
    Crankbrother wrote:
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    Mosquera, then Cobo, then Horner... is there any credibility left in the Vuelta?

    Contador/Schleck (convicted doper/sudden rapid decline), Wiggins (refuses to defend ... something to hide that he feels he can't remotely compete?) then Froome (nobody to top 5 finishes in the 4 GT's he has contended) ... as much as in the TdF I guess ...
    My eyes tell me that I have seen something like this Vuelta so often before.
    Where a guy rides in Europe for a few weeks and dances on the pedals to win a G.T. event.
    They were proved unreal and my gut feeling is this will be another unreal result.

    Wiggins rode and won events from March to the end of July with a lot of graft and his program succeeded in attaining his ambitions.
    This year they set his program for the Giro but forgot the weather which beat him and his health which was still in recovery a few weeks later when the TDF started earlier this year in June.
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  • mike6
    mike6 Posts: 1,199
    iainf72 wrote:
    TailWindHome wrote:
    iainf72 wrote:
    "iainf72 GT potential formula"

    Can you elaborate on this?

    Take all grand tour finishes before they got into a podium position. Divide by number of grand tours.

    Tosh. What about Merckx? What about Indurain?
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,725
    Since Frenchie doesn't recognise the guy in the number 1 spot as record holder,
    today's result must come to him as a bit of a blow:

    http://climbing-records.blogspot.co.uk/ ... great.html

    Reads a bit like a who's who of you know what.
    (err what's that young French bloke doing there, mucking up the theory?)
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    Two little things to consider, a propos very little:

    - For the third year in a row the Vuelta has been won by someone who did neither the Tour nor the Giro
    - This is the first time Horner has been a team leader in a GT
    Twitter: @RichN95

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