Who can challenge Froome in 2014 TDF?

PBo

inkyfingers wrote:

PuttyKnees wrote:

Paulie W wrote:

Quintana wasnt great at Mont St Michel but this idea that he is a 'shocking' TTer is way off. He's weaker in flat TTs and prologues but pretty damn good in a mountain or rollling TT - he beat Porte at Pais Vasco and wasn't far behind him at Paris-Nice.

He did well on the mountain TTs, but losing 3+ minutes on a short flat TT means that he has no chance, particularly if, as another poster said, there is a longer TT next year.

Don't forget he's only 23, plenty of time to improve his TTing. He's never going to be brilliant in the real flat TTs, but with training he can probably reduce the amount he loses quite a bit. I can't imagine that he's done THAT much serious TT training yet in his career.

Fundamentally, Schleck is the weather vane here...how many years did we say "he's young, he'll improve his TTing....". Granted, he did TT respectably the year he won TdF, but its still a weakness...

I guess all I'm saying is, he may or may not improve his TTing..

Incisive insight or what? IGMC....

knedlicky

Setarkos wrote:

Next year ....

In a few more years ....

Bardet - if the French give him some time and don't hype him too much

Bardet’s just won the Tour de l’Ain, in front of LL Sanchez and Gadret. He also won the points jersey. It was his first victory as a pro.

joelsim

From what I've seen this year there's only Quintana and Nibali who come close, especially if Quintana was number one for Movistar. Betancur is a talent, but probably still a couple of years away.

paulcuthbert

Should you not wait for the route to be announced first?

If it's a TTer's Tour, then you'd bet on Froome. If it's a climber's Tour, Quintana might have Froome on the ropes...

Bo Duke

Having seen Froooome's endurance in putting together 3 weeks of daily domination, I'm believe no one more than 12 months older than him can beat him. He mentally and physically dominated, he owned each and every other rider, hill and stage, the guy was never in trouble. Shlek, Bertie, Cadel obviously, Valverde, Wiggo etc.. forget it.

Nibbles is the only one out there today who would pose a problem. Richie Porte could climb with him but doesn't have the last 2% of speed to compete on the flat or on TT's - same with Uran Uran. Ryder came and went in a puff of smoke. Dan Martin, forget it. I'm not sure Talansky has the legs for 3 weeks.

I'd look for one of the gifted youngsters with the same weight/power ratio and same mental strength. I don't think that person is out there? Whoever it could be would have to do an insane amount of training in the Canaries and see hard evidence of steady progress. And he'd need a team around him to get him through the difficult days. BMC spent the cash and look what happened. OMPQ seem to be recreating HTC Highroad so they're out. Greenedge seem to have fizzled, maybe Belkin could mount a challenge but who is their super gifted guy?

As a parallel, the only way to win the America's Cup in sailing or F1 world championship is to replicate SKY's set up. Vast resources, attention to detail and a dedicated fanaticism to cover all your bases. Then get the best helmsman, driver and rider to head the team. Apart from Sky, does that describe one of the other cycling teams?

2014 TdF - Froome

Richmond Racer

Astana have put together a very decent team around Nibali - could be seen at the Giro. And Movistar will go all out for Quintana - that time on the final climb on stage 9 when Quintana put in 3 or 4 digs but was then told by Valverde to cool his jets and not bother any more? That wont happen next year.

Let's not make the mistake of thinking that Froome and Sky are invincible. Brailsford for one certainly wont make that mistake.

ocdupalais

That Froome was the best climber in the race, with only one other rider remotely in the same realm; that he was on course to beat Panzerwagon on a flat TT - and would've done if it wasn't for that pesky headwind picking up for late starters - with all other GC contenders minutes down...
That he had the attentiveness and tactical nous to get on that Valvarde/Movistar move in the valleys on that stage where he was isolated from any teammates (one of the crux moments of the Tour, I thought...)

His competitors will be hoping for something to derail him into next year's Tour, I'd say. Nothing serious, obviously - just a niggling tendon issue or always feeling dizzy if he gets up too quick, something like that...

I'd love to be in the Tour route tweaking meetings - I'm sure Froome will have the race directors scratching their heads trying to booby-trap the race route to expose any of his/Sky's vulnerabilities (shark-tooth profile stages after back to back high mountain stages to encourage early and persistent attacking?)

I'd be surprised if we see a long flat TT at Tour for 2014 - Froome could be nearly 5 minutes up on Bertie and over 6 min on climbers like Quintana, at 2013 levels.

markhewitt1978

Bo Duke wrote:

As a parallel, the only way to win the America's Cup in sailing or F1 world championship is to replicate SKY's set up. Vast resources, attention to detail and a dedicated fanaticism to cover all your bases. Then get the best helmsman, driver and rider to head the team. Apart from Sky, does that describe one of the other cycling teams?

I don't know. "Vast resources, attention to detail and a dedicated fanaticism to cover all your bases" - that pretty much sums up McLaren's approach, and what good has it done them?

bigmat

OCDuPalais wrote:

I'd love to be in the Tour route tweaking meetings - I'm sure Froome will have the race directors scratching their heads trying to booby-trap the race route to expose any of his/Sky's vulnerabilities (shark-tooth profile stages after back to back high mountain stages to encourage early and persistent attacking?)

I'd be surprised if we see a long flat TT at Tour for 2014 - Froome could be nearly 5 minutes up on Bertie and over 6 min on climbers like Quintana, at 2013 levels.

Best bet for an entertaining GC battle would be 100km+ of flat TTs and limited climbing - at least then we might get a Wiggins v Froome battle!

Quintana is very young - he might lose time in the TTs next year, but then he might step up with his climbing. Could be like Pantani v Ullrich in 1998 (but without the drugs, obviously...)

Bo Duke

markhewitt1978 wrote:

Bo Duke wrote:

As a parallel, the only way to win the America's Cup in sailing or F1 world championship is to replicate SKY's set up. Vast resources, attention to detail and a dedicated fanaticism to cover all your bases. Then get the best helmsman, driver and rider to head the team. Apart from Sky, does that describe one of the other cycling teams?

I don't know. "Vast resources, attention to detail and a dedicated fanaticism to cover all your bases" - that pretty much sums up McLaren's approach, and what good has it done them?

Sure, any fool can waste money hence McLaren and BMC are not winning. I don't see however how your comment contributes to the discussion?

philbar72

Rick Chasey wrote:

Andy Schleck.

nope, try again.

markhewitt1978

Bo Duke wrote:

Sure, any fool can waste money hence McLaren and BMC are not winning.

My point is exactly that.

I don't see however how your comment contributes to the discussion?

And this does?

Bo Duke

My post was about achieving excellence, so should an organization waste their resources it shouldn't even be considered within the context of my point.