Who can challenge Froome in 2014 TDF?

epc06

It is often apparent during a tour who will be challenging the following year. It was clear in 2012 that Froome would be a serious contender in 2013, however having watched this race I am not sure where a threat will come from.
Some commentators are talking about Quintana and rightly so, but unless he becomes a mint time trialler I cant see him getting close. Porte seems to have the all round ability but unless they are on different teams he wont be challenging Froome.
Nibali looked very strong in the Giro so it will be good to see him have a go at the TDF next year but apart from that I can see Froome dominating for a few years barring injury etc..

LeicesterLad

Quintana and his little brother to tag team him in years to come. As for next year and the year after - I don't think anyone is capable of challenging him at the Tour. Going to be a few boring years to come yet.

inkyfingers

A lot depends on the course, lots of TTing suits Froome, a few more "classics" stages might not. Are we not due a visit to the cobbles again soon?

Quintana - he's probably the only guy who could, on his day, out-climb Froome.
Nibali - He's become a fine all round GT rider, much improved climber and TTer, with the attacking instinct and downhill talents of a classics specialist. At his physical peak.
Contador - OK, so he was very average this year, but it's too soon to write him off. Nobody has more experience of winning GTs.
Wiggins - If he moved to a another team and the parcours was a bit more favourable (100kms of TT) then who'd write off an angry Brad?

If you take out the Armstrong/Indurain type years of domination, then very few riders have ever consistently ridden at their best in the Tour de France. The Tour has lots of very good riders who've only won it once or twice.

alihisgreat

It really depends on the parcours... Quintana looked marginally stronger in the mountains so if it is similar to this year then I can see him mounting a better challenge - and he doesn't actually TT that badly

If its TT heavy then I'd like to see Wiggins give it another crack as team leader - Kwiatkowski isn't bad on a TT bike, but then you're looking at the likes of Valverde, Mollema, and Talansky who all lost 2 mins to Froome at Mont Saint Michel :shock:

Oh and Nibali who was looking super strong at the Giro and beat Froome in Tirreno-Adriatico lets not forget!

ddraver

If this comes true - http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/ju ... ggins-tour - and Froome has a "lead out" of Wiggins, Kennaugh then Porte then I can see it being very difficult to beat him indeed.

The obvious names are Qunitana and Nibbles. Q-dog needs to work on his TTing though and I'm not sure if Nibali is really good enough to beat Froome,likewise Mollema, Fuglsang...

2 unknown quantities are Betancur and Uran (OPQS next year)...

Whoever does come out on top is going to have to have a whole team that can sacrifice themselves early on climbs and really tag team Sky for three weeks solid, then have a TL who can genuinely put time into him. Movi and Saxo's chance was on St 13, but they blew it becasue of internal strife and indecision. Funnily enough one of the best teams at that this year was Garmin Sharp, trouble is they don't have, and probably cant afford, a good enough TL to finish Froome off.

Never count Bertie out but also remember he "only" one the Vuelta on a Hail Mary long range attack that happened to conicide with a day without for J-Rod, he was hardly invincible...

IanRCarter

Nibali was so strong in the Giro, he could push Froome hard and his TT ability has improved a lot. Descends as well as he climbs.
Quintana - Improves his TT ability and he's got a shot at beating Froome. If Movistar could use a two-pronged attack with Valverde, they could isolate Sky and Froome.
Wiggo - Doubt he'd leave Sky, it's the closest environment to BC track. He's said himself he probably won't ride a GT again. He's a better time-trialist on the flat but Froome could take back a lot of time in the mountains. I'd like to see him beat Froome, I find him far more likeable than Froome.

Garmin have a few strong guys now, Dan Martin did well until cracking at the end, Talansky picked himself up, Ryder has had some bad luck.

edhornby

Dan Martin may be the man to finally build the garmin squad around, but they do seem to have riders that have a good year but don't sustain it (CVV, then Zabriskie, then Brad, then..) - I think that he would need a change in focus to being a one-track minded rider but whether he wants to do this I don't know, there is more to bike racing than the tour

ddraver

IanRCarter wrote:

Nibali was so strong in the Giro, he could push Froome hard and his TT ability has improved a lot. Descends as well as he climbs

Was he though? Really? Who of the names mentioned above did he beat? You may be right but we ve not seen him really up against it this year...

PuttyKnees

Wiggins won't be back in the lead next year and I can't see him leading anyone out either. That's just Brailsford winding Froome up. Nibali is the only challenger for me since he seems to have sorted his TT out. Quintana is exciting but his TTing is so shocking I can't see him challenging.

Paulie W

PuttyKnees wrote:

Wiggins won't be back in the lead next year and I can't see him leading anyone out either. That's just Brailsford winding Froome up. Nibali is the only challenger for me since he seems to have sorted his TT out. Quintana is exciting but his TTing is so shocking I can't see him challenging.

Quintana wasnt great at Mont St Michel but this idea that he is a 'shocking' TTer is way off. He's weaker in flat TTs and prologues but pretty damn good in a mountain or rollling TT - he beat Porte at Pais Vasco and wasn't far behind him at Paris-Nice.

Setarkos

Next year could be difficult but for the years to come we've seen so many potential GT winners:

Contador & Schleck - will be back stronger than this year
Quintana - depending on amount of TT
Nibali
Mollema - has the right (modern) physique and with good coaching could have a great GT career
van den Broeck - we didn't get to see much of him this year and physiologically he is a "new-style rider"
Kreuziger - modern style rider, could become better than Contador in one or two years, team politics will matter, no born leader
Rui Costa - similar to Kreuziger, would've finished higher if he hadn't been pulled back to Valv on the echelon stage.
Porte - will take the Giro next year and help Froome again at the TdF
Talansky - didn't get his second peak right this year (horrible at dauphine - got stronger in the last week)
van Garderen - if he is designated leader from winter on and skips the ToC
Betancur - needs a better team, TT - should skip the classics
Dan Martin - I would like to see him up there but I doubt it, the worlds this year could be for him though
Tony Martin - is reportedly going to lose weight and become a GC rider, certainly has the engine but will be a tough walk
Uran - personally, I don't think he has what it takes
Pinot - has to get over his descending issues

In a few more years:
Kwiatkowski - has potential (big engine) but will have to chose what kind of rider he wants to become
Dombrowski - let's see if he stays with Sky
Aru - got an infection at this year's Giro
Rohan Dennis - hard to tell what type of rider he will become
Majka - will have difficulties getting a leader's position with Contador and Kreuziger on the team
Bardet - if the French give him some time and don't hype him too much

pat1cp

inkyfingers wrote:

A lot depends on the course, lots of TTing suits Froome, a few more "classics" stages might not. Are we not due a visit to the cobbles again soon?

There's talk of a stage that losly follows the Great War Batttle Front through Belgium. I honestly don't think that would be enough to de-rail the SKY team though. They'll do loads of preparation and chances are it'll be early in the race so there will definately be plenty of them.

Turfle

Nibali is the one.

He was never in difficulty in the Giro (vs lesser climbers admittedly), and looks to have come on a level or two since the 2012 Tour. While I don't subscribe to the Froome as a poor descender meme, Nibali is one guy who actually can take it to others on descents.

alihisgreat

Setarkos wrote:

Next year could be difficult but for the years to come we've seen so many potential GT winners:

Contador & Schleck - will be back stronger than this year
Quintana - depending on amount of TT
Nibali
Mollema - has the right (modern) physique and with good coaching could have a great GT career
van den Broeck - we didn't get to see much of him this year and physiologically he is a "new-style rider"
Kreuziger - modern style rider, could become better than Contador in one or two years, team politics will matter, no born leader
Rui Costa - similar to Kreuziger, would've finished higher if he hadn't been pulled back to Valv on the echelon stage.
Porte - will take the Giro next year and help Froome again at the TdF
Talansky - didn't get his second peak right this year (horrible at dauphine - got stronger in the last week)
van Garderen - if he is designated leader from winter on and skips the ToC
Betancur - needs a better team, TT - should skip the classics
Dan Martin - I would like to see him up there but I doubt it, the worlds this year could be for him though
Tony Martin - is reportedly going to lose weight and become a GC rider, certainly has the engine but will be a tough walk
Uran - personally, I don't think he has what it takes
Pinot - has to get over his descending issues

In a few more years:
Kwiatkowski - has potential (big engine) but will have to chose what kind of rider he wants to become
Dombrowski - let's see if he stays with Sky
Aru - got an infection at this year's Giro
Rohan Dennis - hard to tell what type of rider he will become
Majka - will have difficulties getting a leader's position with Contador and Kreuziger on the team
Bardet - if the French give him some time and don't hype him too much

Interesting point about Tony Martin.. shouldn't be too difficult to loose some bulk if he takes the 58 ring off his TT bike! You've got to wonder if he can maintain his TT form - but looking at Wiggins' transformation..

and apparently he's only ~75kg so its not out of the question that he could get his weight down to 70kg. (As opposed to someone like Cancellara who weighs 80kg)

Cumulonimbus

Looking back, Quintana lost 3.28 in the 33km time trial. He might be able to improve position etc but that is still a chunk of time to give away - if the tour has a 50km TT next year then it could be 5 minutes he loses.

Maybe Contador will be able to get back to his previous heights next year, or Andy Schleck will come back to top form (although there are TT problems there too).

TJ had a bad tour this year, quite what the reasons where i dont know, maybe he peaked too early at California. Could be a threat though, considering how young he was last year and where two years improvement should land him.

Is Richie Porte definitely staying with Sky next year?

Turfle

Cumulonimbus wrote:

Looking back, Quintana lost 3.28 in the 33km time trial. He might be able to improve position etc but that is still a chunk of time to give away - if the tour has a 50km TT next year then it could be 5 minutes he loses.

Maybe Contador will be able to get back to his previous heights next year, or Andy Schleck will come back to top form (although there are TT problems there too).

TJ had a bad tour this year, quite what the reasons where i dont know, maybe he peaked too early at California. Could be a threat though, considering how young he was last year and where two years improvement should land him.

Is Richie Porte definitely staying with Sky next year?

Yep, Porte is definitely staying. All signs point to him being their Giro leader.

markhewitt1978

Quintana is the only realistic challenger I can see at the moment. But if I had to put £100 down on the 2014 winner, it would be Froome again.

Setarkos

markhewitt1978 wrote:

Quintana is the only realistic challenger I can see at the moment. But if I had to put £100 down on the 2014 winner, it would be Froome again.

There are so many with great potential. It's impossible to say what improvements they will make and how their preparation goes next year.
Would you have put anything on Froome prior to the 2011 Vuelta?

epc06

Setarkos wrote:

markhewitt1978 wrote:

Quintana is the only realistic challenger I can see at the moment. But if I had to put £100 down on the 2014 winner, it would be Froome again.

There are so many with great potential. It's impossible to say what improvements they will make and how their preparation goes next year.
Would you have put anything on Froome prior to the 2011 Vuelta?

No, but Froome looks pretty unique to me and I also sense a determination to keep his jersey.
I have seen a lot of names mentioned so far in the same way we used to hear about gesink, menchov and cunego as TDF favourites. Dont see any of them coming to the party with perhaps the exception of Nibs

adr82

inkyfingers wrote:

If you take out the Armstrong/Indurain type years of domination, then very few riders have ever consistently ridden at their best in the Tour de France. The Tour has lots of very good riders who've only won it once or twice.

This is a good point to remember. Even if you're a very good rider (which Froome certainly is) it doesn't come close to guaranteeing you a win each year. There are so many things that can go wrong in a 3 week race. That's why winning it even once is such an achievement. I think that barring injury/loss of form, Froome will almost definitely be in the top 3-5 for the next few years, but I don't think you can predict he's a sure bet for a couple more wins just because he won comfortably this year.

Setarkos

EPC06 wrote:

No, but Froome looks pretty unique to me and I also sense a determination to keep his jersey.
I have seen a lot of names mentioned so far in the same way we used to hear about gesink, menchov and cunego as TDF favourites. Dont see any of them coming to the party with perhaps the exception of Nibs

Nobody is saying they will all be contenders but a few years ago people would've said the same about Wiggins and especially Froome or Hesjedal for that matter. Most people didn't think Nibali could be better than at Vuelta 2010 and TdF 2012...
We've seen a lot more riders who have very similar physique as Froome getting stronger - many of them very young.

PuttyKnees

Paulie W wrote:

Quintana wasnt great at Mont St Michel but this idea that he is a 'shocking' TTer is way off. He's weaker in flat TTs and prologues but pretty damn good in a mountain or rollling TT - he beat Porte at Pais Vasco and wasn't far behind him at Paris-Nice.

He did well on the mountain TTs, but losing 3+ minutes on a short flat TT means that he has no chance, particularly if, as another poster said, there is a longer TT next year.

mididoctors

Setarkos wrote:

EPC06 wrote:

No, but Froome looks pretty unique to me and I also sense a determination to keep his jersey.
I have seen a lot of names mentioned so far in the same way we used to hear about gesink, menchov and cunego as TDF favourites. Dont see any of them coming to the party with perhaps the exception of Nibs

Nobody is saying they will all be contenders but a few years ago people would've said the same about Wiggins and especially Froome or Hesjedal for that matter. Most people didn't think Nibali could be better than at Vuelta 2010 and TdF 2012...
We've seen a lot more riders who have very similar physique as Froome getting stronger - many of them very young.

+1

It's not impossible to think that challengers are not going to start popping up.

I think its a lot more open.

inkyfingers

PuttyKnees wrote:

Paulie W wrote:

Quintana wasnt great at Mont St Michel but this idea that he is a 'shocking' TTer is way off. He's weaker in flat TTs and prologues but pretty damn good in a mountain or rollling TT - he beat Porte at Pais Vasco and wasn't far behind him at Paris-Nice.

He did well on the mountain TTs, but losing 3+ minutes on a short flat TT means that he has no chance, particularly if, as another poster said, there is a longer TT next year.

Don't forget he's only 23, plenty of time to improve his TTing. He's never going to be brilliant in the real flat TTs, but with training he can probably reduce the amount he loses quite a bit. I can't imagine that he's done THAT much serious TT training yet in his career.

mike6

I think there are a lot of potential challengers. I don't believe the physiological differences between the good GT riders are very big. I think Froome is on the best team for, I know it sounds a bit old now, marginal gains and all the advantages they give him.
If the other big budget teams raise there game regarding personal coaching etc etc, equipment, they will be in the ball park.
I think Froome is a very good GT rider, but not great. Put one of the other good GT prospects in the Sky team and it is entirely possible 2013 would have had a different winner.

Just one point, using marginal gains......... If Berties team had experimented beforehand, and realised how much faster he could have finished the last TT, on a TT bike, rather than sticking with his road bike??? Its details like the bike change that help to win GTs.

timoid.

- Nibs will be his biggest rival, but not truly threaten.
- Quintana will be there or thereabouts, but his TTing just isn't strong enough.
- Porte would be interesting, but knows himself that he isn't at Chris Froome's level so will be happy to have a tilt at Pink.
- Contador is done. Unless he gets back on the steak.
- Schleck is even more done
- Van Gaarderen, Valverde, Costa, Uran are a level below.

If this man was a bit older http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Jungels it might be different.

rick_chasey

Andy Schleck.

ms_tree

Setarkos wrote:

Next year could be difficult but for the years to come we've seen so many potential GT winners:

Contador & Schleck - will be back stronger than this year
Quintana - depending on amount of TT
Nibali
Mollema - has the right (modern) physique and with good coaching could have a great GT career
van den Broeck - we didn't get to see much of him this year and physiologically he is a "new-style rider"
Kreuziger - modern style rider, could become better than Contador in one or two years, team politics will matter, no born leader
Rui Costa - similar to Kreuziger, would've finished higher if he hadn't been pulled back to Valv on the echelon stage.
Porte - will take the Giro next year and help Froome again at the TdF
Talansky - didn't get his second peak right this year (horrible at dauphine - got stronger in the last week)
van Garderen - if he is designated leader from winter on and skips the ToC
Betancur - needs a better team, TT - should skip the classics
Dan Martin - I would like to see him up there but I doubt it, the worlds this year could be for him though
Tony Martin - is reportedly going to lose weight and become a GC rider, certainly has the engine but will be a tough walk
Uran - personally, I don't think he has what it takes
Pinot - has to get over his descending issues

In a few more years:
Kwiatkowski - has potential (big engine) but will have to chose what kind of rider he wants to become
Dombrowski - let's see if he stays with Sky
Aru - got an infection at this year's Giro
Rohan Dennis - hard to tell what type of rider he will become
Majka - will have difficulties getting a leader's position with Contador and Kreuziger on the team
Bardet - if the French give him some time and don't hype him too much

There's also Kruijswijk and the very promising Wilco Kelderman who Gesink rates very highly. Re Uran I think he should stick to being a hilly Classics rider; after all he has been on the podium at Lombardia twice.

Turfle

I think both Kelderman and Talansky have a shot, but are a a couple of years away. They seem to have the best combination of TTing and climbing. Personally I think Kwiatkowski and the TJGV will both be a step or two off the top climbers.

Coach H

Froome should absolutely be the favorite 49 weeks out :roll:

To be more certain next year IMHO Sky need to be a bit more clinical next year with team selection. For the all the talk of ruthless management Froome largely got to choose who was in the team based on who he was comfortable with. He was probably allowed to do this to bolstr his confidence but it coulld have, and nearly did, backfire.

Sky were unlucky with G and Stannards early crash as they were slated to do much of the flat work. But this is racing and these things happen (see Suitsou last year). Without G being able to pull and having let EBH sprint a bit too much, when Porte got distanced all they had left was Kirienka to try to bring him back single handed and then get blown out. This was probably the single biggest tactical error of the whole race (by any team).

If SKY sort these issues out then Froome should be in the box seat (form not withstanding). Sky NEED a Rogers and this should be a role that Wiggins is given to round out his career. I would like to think he would volunteer for it but not sure his ego will let him, maybe Uncle Shane needs a word. If it were me; same team as this year with Wiggins in for Lopez and Knees in for Suitsou to help Stannard as he did a far better job of sitting on the front for hours last year than Suitsou did this. Would like to see a place for Bernie to organise things on flat stages and 'classics' type days but just dont see who he would replace.

rick_chasey

Waaay too many Dutchies named in this thread.

Don't you learn people?

I believe in the Andy Pandy and Frank's ability to turn Andy around.....sort of.

I think you lot have written him off too soon.