Wiggo's form

Frank the tank

Shaping up nicely in the Dauphine.

TdF winner perhaps? Or is he peaking too soon.

FWIW I think (barring accidents) he's good for a podium place.

As for the olympics who knows (track that is).

RichN95.

Frank the tank wrote:

As for the olympics who knows (track that is).

He won't be doing track the Olympics, that's for sure. Road race and TT for him.

ratsbeyfus

Am I right in thinking Olympic TT is after the road race? If so, would Wiggins be able to (or want to) bury himself like he did in the World Champs for Cav and recover in time?

Frank the tank

RichN95 wrote:

Frank the tank wrote:

As for the olympics who knows (track that is).

He won't be doing track the Olympics, that's for sure. Road race and TT for him.

Oh! in that case could be good for a medal in the TT.

v2p

Yeah that was one of the things they were saving about the GB squad, that since the TT is after the road race, cav is unlikely to get the utter devotion of wiggo like he did last year. Perhaps someone knows the answer as to why they made the rule that all TT riders must compete in the road race too?

Also regarding wiggo peaking too soon, he says his new coach who was a swimming coach, has put him on a training schedule where he always stays in good form even during the winter, much like a swimmer, rather than start off slow in jan and slowly build up form. I can't find the link to where I read it atm

Bakunin

He looks very impressive -- difficult to criticize/question his form/riding.

The question is can he do it for three weeks in July?

It is going to be fun watching him and Sky.

tremayne

Wiggos form this year will have made him the envy of pro cycling (not talking about this forum!!) and thats already starting to be seen with some very negative comments from the likes of BMC (even Jensie has waded in).

Personal opinion is that when Sky kicked off, they were given a very hard time by the other teams. Their failures in yr2 I think almost endeared them and they experienced a sort of rehabilitation in the peloton. This year, they are on fire and once again are generally disliked.

I think when it comes to Olympics Wiggo will already have gained major success at TDF, sealing an epic year. Cav prob won't have finished the tour and I feel that (with yellow in the bag) he might almost be persuaded to give his all for Cav. However - what do I know. They also don't come across as being perhaps as close as their track days.

Summary - form of his life. Hardly a single wrong step this year. Shortly to make serious history.

alwaystoohot

Yeah Wiggo's on fire and the last 5% is confidence. Other lads are on form but don't have Wiggo's self belief. Full steam ahead Wiggo.

For those wondering if he's peaked too early, consider he has to put iin big performances now and the TdF and the Olympics - its a sports science study in how to maintain form for such an extended period. Maybe Shhhhleck is simply looking at the July window to peak?

patchy

A slightly side question on Wiggins. Throughout the Dauphine, the Australian commentators have been casting aspersions on his descending ability - saying it's a weakness that Cadel (who is admittedly a gun descender) can exploit.

I don't ever recall Wiggins being seen as a bad descender - is this an actual weakness or something the Aussie commentators are just hyping up for the home audience?

RichN95.

patchy wrote:

A slightly side question on Wiggins. Throughout the Dauphine, the Australian commentators have been casting aspersions on his descending ability - saying it's a weakness that Cadel (who is admittedly a gun descender) can exploit.

I don't ever recall Wiggins being seen as a bad descender - is this an actual weakness or something the Aussie commentators are just hyping up for the home audience?

I don't think he's one to take any great risks (like Nibali, for example), but I don't think he's particularly weak. He's an ex-Madison rider so he can certainly handle a bike.
On yesterday's stage they just weren't paying attention and it was 50km from the finish so there was no real hurry to catch Evans (who is nearly 2 minutes down on GC). If the Tour was on the line I'm sure it would have been different.

As far as form and peaking is concerned, it's hard to tell. I wrote a different thread that for twenty years the received wisdom about these things has been based on riders who were on doping programmes. 'Form' was transfused in and out and 'peaks' were injected. Take that away and maybe the old ideas are no longer valid. It's notable that Sky have a trainer who has come from outside cycling and perhaps seen things differently.

dave_1

Today should answer a few questions...want to see what happens when a strong climber goes and Cadel goes after that attack..how long can Bradley handle that? His climbing at Paris Nice..there weren't many tests of it and on the steepest hill Westra distanced Bradley or at least Wiggo could not reply with an out of the saddle burst..to get to Westra. Col'deze was a steadier effort TT. To win the TDF Wiggo will have to stand up on those pedals sometimes to go with the surges Schlek will put in and which Evans can mostly match..

alwaystoohot

I can't say I'm impressed with the ozzie commentator...... they go out to a global audience but eem very focused on their own riders.

Yellow Peril

Dave_1 wrote:

Today should answer a few questions...want to see what happens when a strong climber goes and Cadel goes after that attack..how long can Bradley handle that? His climbing at Paris Nice..there weren't many tests of it and on the steepest hill Westra distanced Bradley or at least Wiggo could not reply with an out of the saddle burst..to get to Westra. Col'deze was a steadier effort TT. To win the TDF Wiggo will have to stand up on those pedals sometimes to go with the surges Schlek will put in and which Evans can mostly match..

This^

The chink in Brad's armour is his ability to either respond to a change in pace on a climb or inject the pace change himself. The way he tried to vercome this at Romandie was to ride at a high tempo to try and take the sting out of any attacks. It had some success but Westra was able to ride off the front. Even if Brad was fitter and climbing better than then is such a tactic sustainable over the longer climbs of the Tour? I doubt it.

Hopefully he can accrue reasonable time gains through the TT's to minimise the requirement to defend/attack on the bumps.

iainf72

tremayne wrote:

Wiggos form this year will have made him the envy of pro cycling (not talking about this forum!!) and thats already starting to be seen with some very negative comments from the likes of BMC (even Jensie has waded in).

I must've missed these "very negative comments"? I'd suggest everyone has been full of praise?

Yellow Peril

I don't think Jens was overtly negative he just stated the obvious about recent dauphine winners and the Tour...which is pretty much what most of us have alluded to on the forum.

I think he is in the road racing form of his life. I'm curious to see how far he can go with it. I do doubt though that there will be much left following the Tour to do anything at the Olympics.

smithy21

If this does happen, and I don't think it will, Brad could afford to hand back a bit of time and still be ok without going too deep. Sky could even send Rogers and Froome after an attack and still have EBH, Sitsou and Porte to pace Wiggins if required.

Gazzetta67

I think the only thing that will stop wiggins this year will be illness or a crash. Sky seem to have got it right this year and nearly all of the dauphine squad are on top form or nearing it. This will be wiggins best chance to win it this year as i dont think he would beat a fully fit contador. As some have said the only time i have seen wiggins struggle is when the pace changes say when a schleck attacks he has to climb out the saddle rather than just pursuit the way indurain had to.

iainf72

Gazzetta67 wrote:

I think the only thing that will stop wiggins this year will be illness or a crash. Sky seem to have got it right this year and nearly all of the dauphine squad are on top form or nearing it.

Do you think they're near the top of their form? If so, I think when the mountains start in the Tour with real racing, Wiggins is going to have to be prepared to ride alone a lot based on what I saw yesterday. I suspect they will be better by the Tour though.

I think the problem they've got is everyone knows you need to get rid of Sky and Wiggins. So everyone will let them work (and with Cavendish on the team there is double reason to do that). And if you look at Liquigas in the Giro, notice how by week 3 they were shredded

inkyfingers

Having a strong team might force them into doing more work sometimes, but it's still surely better than having a weak team?

I can still see BMC doing a fair bit of pacemaking as well, Wiggins isn't the only GC rider who likes a good steady pace being set.

iainf72

inkyfingers wrote:

Having a strong team might force them into doing more work sometimes, but it's still surely better than having a weak team?

I can still see BMC doing a fair bit of pacemaking as well, Wiggins isn't the only GC rider who likes a good steady pace being set.

Sure, but Evans understands sometimes you need to risk losing to win.

I'm not saying having a strong team is a problem. It's just Wiggins form has been telegraphed to everyone, so other can rightly expect them to do all of the work.

Gazzetta67

I dont know how many of them will be shredded come week 3 of the tour. Liquigas seem to have a really strong team for the mountains..as you have said iain if i were the other teams i would let Sky ride on the front for cavendish,wiggins and knacker the lot of them.

Tom Butcher

patchy wrote:

A slightly side question on Wiggins. Throughout the Dauphine, the Australian commentators have been casting aspersions on his descending ability - saying it's a weakness that Cadel (who is admittedly a gun descender) can exploit.

I don't ever recall Wiggins being seen as a bad descender - is this an actual weakness or something the Aussie commentators are just hyping up for the home audience?

Agree with previous comments - Wiggo is not a bad descender - probably not in the Evans class who in turn is probably not quite in the Nibali class but certainly not poor in the way a Menchov or a Pozzivivo (sp?) is. He's more conservative than a poor bike handler I think - I can't actually remember him crashing on a descent or thinking he takes a poor line through corners.

I think there's a chance those two could attack on a descent and make it stick against Wiggo - but how often does that actually work - not that often.

iainf72

Tom Butcher wrote:

I think there's a chance those two could attack on a descent and make it stick against Wiggo - but how often does that actually work - not that often.

No, but if you do it, he's got to chase. Or his team do. And it's a wearing down process and there is the stress of the situation too.

I think with Wiggins a better idea is to try and put a bit of time into him near the top of the climb and press on during the descent. You almost want to try an generate some panic. He is very tranquilo though so he doesn't strike me as a panicker.

BelgianBeerGeek

+1 to this.^
Wiggins is on v. good form. Is he a GC contender? Yes. He has a plan and is sticking to it. The course also suits him. The minor problem for him is that everyone else can see his plan, and if he has one chink in his armour it is that he is a cautious rider. Others may take the occasianal risk, but his inclination is to be conservative (see TdF 2010).
But he seems sanguine (good sign for Brad). If he holds his nerve and doesn't panic when others try to provoke a reaction, as they will to stand a chance of GC contention, he should do it.

BikingBernie

I know Wiggins is a Brit, and most posters on this forum probably are Brits as well, but even I am a little surprised that no one has even raised a metaphorical eyebrow at the way Wiggins has been going, nor the reasons he has given. For example,

“It’s just trying to be 95, 97% all year and constantly working,” Wiggins said.

Really? And I had thought that these days the only way to reach a high enough peak to win a major Tour was to target and that trying to ride at '97%' all year was a sure way to overtrain.

Even the mainstream cycling press seem to me throwing in little 'teasers'. For example:

The Dauphiné is only the fifth race Wiggins has started in 2012 as he builds for the Tour de France under the stewardship of Tim Kerrison, his Australian coach, with a training programme that has aroused considerable interest.

...Wiggins has sprinkled his preparation for July with an approach to racing that seems to have been lifted straight from the “you might as well win” school of thought.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/wiggins ... philosophy

Now who was it who wrote a book with that same title?

OK, so perhaps the blood passport and so on now means that it is hard to get more than 5% out of a doping programme these days, rather than the 10% plus of a few years ago. However, 5% is still a big difference at this level and I think we can be sure that there are plenty of riders taking full advantage of that 5%, and yet Wiggins appears to be riding at an even higher level.

Does everyone really take everything that has been said about Wiggins' form at face value? Would people perhaps be just a little less credulous if Wiggns was Spanish, or Italian?

dougzz

Bernie sometimes you just need to have a little faith.
Who knows, and will we ever really find out. I, as an Ingerland fan, am more than happy to see my Australian/Belgian Brit do the business.

Gazzaputt

BikingBernie wrote:

I know Wiggins is a Brit, and most posters on this forum probably are Brits as well, but even I am a little surprised that no one has even raised a metaphorical eyebrow at the way Wiggins has been going, nor the reasons he has given. For example,

“It’s just trying to be 95, 97% all year and constantly working,” Wiggins said.

Really? And I had thought that these days the only way to reach a high enough peak to win a major Tour was to target and that trying to ride at '97%' all year was a sure way to overtrain.

Even the mainstream cycling press seem to me throwing in little 'teasers'. For example:

The Dauphiné is only the fifth race Wiggins has started in 2012 as he builds for the Tour de France under the stewardship of Tim Kerrison, his Australian coach, with a training programme that has aroused considerable interest.

...Wiggins has sprinkled his preparation for July with an approach to racing that seems to have been lifted straight from the “you might as well win” school of thought.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/wiggins ... philosophy

Now who was it who wrote a book with that same title?

OK, so perhaps the blood passport and so on now means that it is hard to get more than 5% out of a doping programme these days, rather than the 10% plus of a few years ago. However, 5% is still a big difference at this level and I think we can be sure that there are plenty of riders taking full advantage of that 5%, and yet Wiggins appears to be riding at an even higher level.

Does everyone really take everything that has been said about Wiggins' form at face value? Would people perhaps be just a little less credulous if Wiggns was Spanish, or Italian?

In answer to your question yes if they had a one off super grand tour ride and had done little before and nothing after.

As to raising an eyebrow to Wiggo I think you'll find it well documented the training methods.

Also add to this it seems we have one of the cleanest peletons in years.

mr_poll

There has been a lot said about holding form from the Crit de Dauphine to the tour - i think one of ES commentators listed the couple of riders who have ever won both. However looking at the last cpl of years:

2011 - Cadel wins the tour, 2nd in the Dauphine
2010 - Contador "wins" the tour, 2nd in the Dauphine

The tour de Swiss has a similar theme - at the end of the day you aren't going to come from nowhere in the warm up events to win the tour.


I agree that it will largely be how the team stays strong, Brad needs the pace team when things go up to stop the sharp attacks. However if you look at the route the high mountains are regularly broken up and there is only 2 consecutive days of the steep stuff.
If sky play it right Brad shouldn't be in yellow until stage 10 - they then only have to actively defend the jersey for 9 stages, with 2 rest days breaking up 5/6 mountain days. It's by no means straight forward but its not day after day of climbing.

BikingBernie

Gazzaputt wrote:

As to raising an eyebrow to Wiggo I think you'll find it well documented the training methods.

All the studies of training methods I have ever read indicate that the most effective programmes are strongly cyclical in nature, with relatively few periods of targeted form. If anyone can point me in the direction of any others showing that this is false, I would love to read them.

thamacdaddy

The last training camp video on the guardian wiggo clearly says he has never been in peak form for any race yet this year and they are still aiming for the tour to be in absolute peak fitness. All this he is peaking too early comments are I think a bit false. No one will be in peak fitness at dauphine, brad and sky coming from altitude training might be a touch ahead of the rest.

I also don't understand the comments saying wiggo won't win unless he can put in an out of saddle dig. He isn't really that rider instead he works of constant high pressure. Wiggins unlike cav works well with trainers and numbers. They have analysed the power ratings etc needed (based on past winners and analysis of climbs) and know the numbers brad needs to put him in a select few who can be at the front of races. He and the team know if they keep a certain pressure and power on the climbs then it will probably nullify attacks.

I expect this to be the tactic in the tour as you have seen from sky all season. Liquigas employ the same tactics with basso. I also expect many to say they are bored when sky run a group of riders on the front of climbs that set the kind of pressure that won't allow attacks from schleck or Evans etc. wiggins won't need to do a big out of the saddle climb, his confidence will come from knowing the numbers that can win or lead up a climb and keeping his output on those numbers.

BikingBernie

thamacdaddy wrote:

The last training camp video on the guardian wiggo clearly says he has never been in peak form for any race yet this year and they are still aiming for the tour to be in absolute peak fitness. All this he is peaking too early comments are I think a bit false. No one will be in peak fitness at dauphine, brad and sky coming from altitude training might be a touch ahead of the rest.

Does any talk of 'peaking' make that much sense when you aim to be riding at "97%" even in the off-season?