The Sky Train

alwaystoohot

As both the Tour and Olympics get closer got to say that Bradley's looking in a stronger position to get the glory than Cav.

Brad's races so far have been controlled, effective and well supported by his team mates whereas Cav's Sky Train have dominated the 30 to 5km sections then broken up leaving him badly placed and struggling to get the final jump off. HTC worked like clockwork, Sky are struggling.

Some monster rides by the likes of Stannard but I don't see a polished lead out and lets face it he's fallen twice being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Bradley seems in better control of his half of the team at this stage than Cav.

But its only half time and still a long way to go.......

smithy21

I think the Giro will be a good learning experience as to how the team can function on two fronts. They have the sprint stages where they are riding for Cav but also on the lumpier stages they are supporting Uran and Henao.

Certainly on the second crash Sky worked brilliantly to get to a position where Cav was there at the final corner as he had dropped back a distance on the climb.

greasedscotsman

Alwaystoohot wrote:

HTC worked like clockwork, Sky are struggling.

Don't think Sky are doing that bad. The stage to Fano, the leadout train worked perfectly. And I don't think HTC always used a big lead out train, Cavendish won plenty of races by finding his own way though the bunch. Maybe the cause of the crashes he's had at the Giro are nothing to do with Sky not leading him out properly, but Cavendish picking the wrong wheels. Maybe they are missing Renshaw!

rick_chasey

Argh. No-one listens when I say it. THE OLYMPIC COURSE IS TOO TOUGH FOR CAVENDISH.

Right. Anyone want to step outside?

andyp

You're only little, aren't you Rick? Doesn't seem fair to settle this outside.

As for Box Hill, it's not that tough a climb and, with a 30 mile run in, there's time to recover before a sprint. There will be enough nations, like the British, the Germans, the Australians and the Americans who'll want a sprint and they'll close the race down.

rick_chasey

andyp wrote:

You're only little, aren't you Rick? Doesn't seem fair to settle this outside.

As for Box Hill, it's not that tough a climb and, with a 30 mile run in, there's time to recover before a sprint. There will be enough nations, like the British, the Germans, the Australians and the Americans who'll want a sprint and they'll close the race down.

I've said it before, I'll say it again.


It's pretty much the Poggio with less turns 9 times.

http://www.climbbybike.com/climb.asp?Co ... inID=10887

http://www.climbbybike.com/climb.asp?co ... ntainID=41

Box Hill:
Average: 3.8 %
Length: 4.38 km
Height start: 43 m
Height top: 213 m
Gradient: 170 m

Poggio:
Average: 3.7 %
Length: 4 km
Height start: 20 m
Height top: 169 m
Gradient: 149 m

Even when Cav won M-SR he was dropped on the Poggio. He managed to get back on with the help of Hincape.

Now, for sure, the run in is bigger, but 9 times in very quick succession - not a chance.

iainf72

andyp wrote:

There will be enough nations, like the British, the Germans, the Australians and the Americans who'll want a sprint and they'll close the race down.

I think only a mug would want it to be a sprint finish if Cavendish is there.

If the other teams can get rid of him, they'd take their chances in a sprint, but the first objective has to be to get rid of him, surely.

Monty Zoncolan

Alwaystoohot wrote:

he's fallen twice being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Not wanting to be argumentative but is this right? As I recall the two finishes, he was ready to crank it up at the end of the first, only for Ferrari to swerve wildly across him, and in the second he was taking quite a sensible line around that last bend, only to be forced either into the barrier or to go over another rider (Pozzato?) by a series of falls around him. The factors causing him to lose out were more to do with erratic riding by others and, you could argue, the weather.

I can think of plenty of times under the old HTC/Columbia/Highroad guard where Cav would have been in a similar position to where he was on those two stages - he didn't always get a nice clear tow all the way to the line.

andyp

The Poggio comes after 280 kms of racing, less than two months into the racing season. It is a very different proposition to Box Hill.

Both Greipel and Goss, and to a lesser extent Farrar, will fancy their chances in a chaotic sprint after 250 kms even if Cavendish is there.

ilovebigwig

They will definitely try to attack Cav fairly early and drop him, with the smaller team I think he'll struggle to come back. Also, as mentioned, everyone involved will be trying to stop him getting in a sprint.

iainf72

andyp wrote:

Both Greipel and Goss, and to a lesser extent Farrar, will fancy their chances in a chaotic sprint after 250 kms even if Cavendish is there.

Coz that worked out well in Copenhagen?

The Italians will put the hammer down to so Sagan can win. 8)

TheBigBean

Mr Chasey, I appreciate your numbers based argument, but I'm still struggling to believe that a course in south-east England can be challenging.

TheBigBean

iainf72 wrote:

andyp wrote:

Both Greipel and Goss, and to a lesser extent Farrar, will fancy their chances in a chaotic sprint after 250 kms even if Cavendish is there.

Coz that worked out well in Copenhagen?

The Italians will put the hammer down to so Sagan can win. 8)

Do the Germans have a better plan? A silver medal for Greipel with a small possibility of Gold is surely better than no hope at all.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean wrote:

iainf72 wrote:

andyp wrote:

Both Greipel and Goss, and to a lesser extent Farrar, will fancy their chances in a chaotic sprint after 250 kms even if Cavendish is there.

Coz that worked out well in Copenhagen?

The Italians will put the hammer down to so Sagan can win. 8)

Do the Germans have a better plan? A silver medal for Greipel with a small possibility of Gold is surely better than no hope at all.

There are as many, if not more teams with an interest to dump Cav.

Seriously - if Boonen thinks the route may be too selective for him you can be sure it'll be too selective for Cav.

iainf72

Rick Chasey wrote:

Seriously - if Boonen thinks the route may be too selective for him you can be sure it'll be too selective for Cav.

Isn't that because the route goes past a few girls secondary schools, rather than a terrain?

rick_chasey

iainf72 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Seriously - if Boonen thinks the route may be too selective for him you can be sure it'll be too selective for Cav.

Isn't that because the route goes past a few girls secondary schools, rather than a terrain?

He heard I was laying an kidnap somewhere on Fulham road .

Y'know, for the new avatar FF wants. :P

fidbod

I refuse to believe that any professional cyclist would consider Coll de Boite as anything other than a trifling bump - now if they were going up whitedown 7 times I would be concerned for some of the riders.

heart says Cav for the win but the head may have a few quid on Boonen at betfair.

alwaystoohot

Monty Zoncolan wrote:

Alwaystoohot wrote:

he's fallen twice being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Not wanting to be argumentative but is this right? As I recall the two finishes, he was ready to crank it up at the end of the first, only for Ferrari to swerve wildly across him, and in the second he was taking quite a sensible line around that last bend, only to be forced either into the barrier or to go over another rider (Pozzato?) by a series of falls around him. The factors causing him to lose out were more to do with erratic riding by others and, you could argue, the weather.

I can think of plenty of times under the old HTC/Columbia/Highroad guard where Cav would have been in a similar position to where he was on those two stages - he didn't always get a nice clear tow all the way to the line.

In the first race the Sky lads flaked off too early after some epic leading by Stannard and Cav was up there alone with no protection, in the second, Goss had him beat - again the train ran out of steam and Cav was no where to be seen 400m before the fateful corner - again alone. The pre-sprint is great, the whole sprint community is using Sky to set the pace and pull them along them boom - they nip past and Cav is in no better a position than the other sprinters. Don't tell me Goss or Renshaw are worried by the prospect of a Sky lead out, in fact they know how best to use it!

bigmat

Rick Chasey wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

iainf72 wrote:

andyp wrote:

Both Greipel and Goss, and to a lesser extent Farrar, will fancy their chances in a chaotic sprint after 250 kms even if Cavendish is there.

Coz that worked out well in Copenhagen?

The Italians will put the hammer down to so Sagan can win. 8)

Do the Germans have a better plan? A silver medal for Greipel with a small possibility of Gold is surely better than no hope at all.

There are as many, if not more teams with an interest to dump Cav.

Seriously - if Boonen thinks the route may be too selective for him you can be sure it'll be too selective for Cav.

Boonen doesn't really think that, though, does he? He appears to be basing the rest of his season around it.

The first few times up Box Hill will probably be fairly restrained, then it will get tasty. There'll be chance to get back on with each loop if he does get dropped. Plus, its an easier climb then Poggio - long straights, billiard smooth surface (now). It will be a challenge but I think Cav has a decent chance. Especially when you'll have USA, Germany, Australia and UK plus any other country without a rider in the break chasing for the last 30 miles. Most of the big countries will have a sprinter so will be keen to chase unless they have a man ahead. It will be tough for a small break to stay ahead unless they get a decent gap on the Box Hill loop, and that will be tough to achieve.

rick_chasey

He said (to paraphrase) he'd have to be in top top shape if he was to make it over with the big boys - hence his bailing out of the Tour.

If people are right about Poland being the best prep. Cav will be at another disadvantage too. At least he won't be overweight though! (which I still think he was in Milan in March).

jibberjim

TheBigBean wrote:

Do the Germans have a better plan? A silver medal for Greipel with a small possibility of Gold is surely better than no hope at all.

Degenkolb from a smaller group - but would probably still be beaten by Goss in that scenario.

rick_chasey

No-one thinks Cancellara to go solo off the final box hill lap .

The olmypics is tough for sprinters - only 5 riders per team.

TheBigBean

jibberjim wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

Do the Germans have a better plan? A silver medal for Greipel with a small possibility of Gold is surely better than no hope at all.

Degenkolb from a smaller group - but would probably still be beaten by Goss in that scenario.

and Sagan too.

fidbod

Rick Chasey wrote:

No-one thinks Cancellara to go solo off the final box hill lap .

The olmypics is tough for sprinters - only 5 riders per team.

Surely no one would stupid enough to let him get off the front, we all know he can TT all the way in from that far out if he has the chance.

rick_chasey

fidbod wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

No-one thinks Cancellara to go solo off the final box hill lap .

The olmypics is tough for sprinters - only 5 riders per team.

Surely no one would stupid enough to let him get off the front, we all know he can TT all the way in from that far out if he has the chance.

Depends who's around to chase him down.

andyp

Most of the peleton still.

rick_chasey

andyp wrote:

Most of the peloton still.

*shrugs* you lot are clearly past being helped.

I'd be surprised if half the peloton is still there after 230km, but we'll see eh?

greasedscotsman

Alwaystoohot wrote:

In the first race the Sky lads flaked off too early after some epic leading by Stannard and Cav was up there alone with no protection, in the second, Goss had him beat - again the train ran out of steam and Cav was no where to be seen 400m before the fateful corner - again alone. The pre-sprint is great, the whole sprint community is using Sky to set the pace and pull them along them boom - they nip past and Cav is in no better a position than the other sprinters. Don't tell me Goss or Renshaw are worried by the prospect of a Sky lead out, in fact they know how best to use it!

Cavendish seemed to manage fine without a big leadout train in the second stage at the Giro, there was a crash in that one as well.

smithy21

Alwaystoohot wrote:

Monty Zoncolan wrote:

Alwaystoohot wrote:

he's fallen twice being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Not wanting to be argumentative but is this right? As I recall the two finishes, he was ready to crank it up at the end of the first, only for Ferrari to swerve wildly across him, and in the second he was taking quite a sensible line around that last bend, only to be forced either into the barrier or to go over another rider (Pozzato?) by a series of falls around him. The factors causing him to lose out were more to do with erratic riding by others and, you could argue, the weather.

I can think of plenty of times under the old HTC/Columbia/Highroad guard where Cav would have been in a similar position to where he was on those two stages - he didn't always get a nice clear tow all the way to the line.

In the first race the Sky lads flaked off too early after some epic leading by Stannard and Cav was up there alone with no protection, in the second, Goss had him beat - again the train ran out of steam and Cav was no where to be seen 400m before the fateful corner - again alone. The pre-sprint is great, the whole sprint community is using Sky to set the pace and pull them along them boom - they nip past and Cav is in no better a position than the other sprinters. Don't tell me Goss or Renshaw are worried by the prospect of a Sky lead out, in fact they know how best to use it!

Renshaw??? Did you say Renshaw? Now I know you are on a windup. He's got more to worry about than a Sky leadout.

Pross

Alwaystoohot wrote:

In the first race the Sky lads flaked off too early after some epic leading by Stannard and Cav was up there alone with no protection, in the second, Goss had him beat - again the train ran out of steam and Cav was no where to be seen 400m before the fateful corner - again alone. The pre-sprint is great, the whole sprint community is using Sky to set the pace and pull them along them boom - they nip past and Cav is in no better a position than the other sprinters. Don't tell me Goss or Renshaw are worried by the prospect of a Sky lead out, in fact they know how best to use it!

Um, no - the 'train' had dropped back to bring Cav back up through the bunch as he was dangling near the back at the summit if the climb 4km out. There was no point in having 5 riders driving it on when their man was trying to work his way forward as he'd have never got to the front. I doubt he'd have won that stage but that was due to losing too much ground on the climb. On stage 2 he lost Thomas' wheel and decided to sit behind other riders than fight to get back. He timed it well and I think would have won. Far too much is made of the lead out train, Cav won the worlds without the final part of the train after GB had done everything right up until the final few hundred metres and he won several stages at last year's Tour without Renshaw. He is one of the best there is at hopping from wheel to wheel. As for Wiggo's 'train' it's a lot less physical trying to get people setting a hard pace on a mountain than it is trying to control the head of a race in the final few kms!

My prediction is that Cav will win the most stages at this years Tour and the green jersey if he finishes the race. The Olympics is far harder to predict, no team is big enough to fully control the race and there will be lots of people wanting to make the most of the only selective part of the course. If GB can keep it all together until the last km then I think Cav will win even without a lead-out man.

greasedscotsman

Pross wrote:

On stage 2 he lost Thomas' wheel and decided to sit behind other riders than fight to get back. He timed it well and I think would have won.

He did win Stage 2. Stage 1 was the TT that Phinney won, it wasn't a prologue as it was too long.