French Presidential Elections

MaxwellBygraves

First round voting in France is tomorrow.

This gives the candidates until 6th of May when the second round will be held. Everyone expects it to be Hollande and Sarkozy to make it into the first round. It's still important to see who 'wins' the first round. For example if Hollande beats Sarkozy in the first round, it will take a lot of the wind out of Sarkozy's sails for the final run in. And vice-versa.

Personally I hope Melenchon can at least beat that horrible Le Pen. I appreciate that a Melenchon first round second place (to knock out Sarkozy, of course) is unlikely, but stranger things have happened (see 2002).

Good luck to both Melenchon and Hollande.

finchy

If Le Pen beat Sarkozy in the 1st round, it would be interesting to see how many conservatives back Hollande in the 2nd round.

MaxwellBygraves

johnfinch wrote:

If Le Pen beat Sarkozy in the 1st round, it would be interesting to see how many conservatives back Hollande in the 2nd round.

Well it is an unlikely situation.

2002 is comparable. Chirac polled over 80% of the vote in a run off with Le Pen's father.

Yet Chirac is/was centre-right, compared to Hollande, a socialist.

An interesting question. Unfortunately, if it ever did happen, I'm not sure I'd be that optimistic...

MaxwellBygraves

Voting is underway.

Everyone on mainland France has until 6PM in countryside to vote and until 8PM in cities. Unlikely to hear much until around or after 8.

Edit: Most polls show abstention is likely to be around 30%.

Stevo_666

Rick Chasey wrote:

Hollande FTW.

Even if only so that I get some more work.

I'll agree with Rick on that one - if Hollande wins there'll be quite a few more French types in London before long.

Vesterberg

interesting and instructive thread. I will be voting Melenchon.

Frank the tank

MaxwellBygraves wrote:

This ought to raise a few eyebrows. Daily Mail editorial comes out in favour of facist Le Pen: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/artic ... e-Pen.html

Daily Mail in we back right wing extremist candidate shocker. I'm sure they would back the BNP here if it wasn't so damaging to its circulation.

MaxwellBygraves

Frank the tank wrote:

MaxwellBygraves wrote:

This ought to raise a few eyebrows. Daily Mail editorial comes out in favour of facist Le Pen: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/artic ... e-Pen.html

Daily Mail in we back right wing extremist candidate shocker. I'm sure they would back the BNP here if it wasn't so damaging to its circulation.

They know that there would be outrage if they openly supported the likes of the BNP. So instead, through columnists like Hitchens and Phillips, they just echo the sentiment and 'fan the flames' so to speak. They know full well what their doing.

MaxwellBygraves

I'm keeping my eyes peeled on Twitter for any provisional news...

On the French Island Saint Pierre & Miquelon (islands etc. voted yesterday) Sarkozy (23%) is behind Hollande (30%) and Melenchon (24%).

MaxwellBygraves

Latest polling for first round:

: First Round: François Hollande 27% Nicolas Sarkozy 26% Jean-Luc Mélenchon 17% (Left) Marine Le Pen 15% (FN)

MaxwellBygraves

Polls in countryside have closed. Polls in cities have another hour.

MaxwellBygraves

Very mixed bag of results. Hollande is the clear winner which is good for anyone that considers themselves left-of-centre.

Bad news that Le Pen polled so highly. Melenchon did well, but not as well as I'd hoped.

Genuinely gutted that 1 in 5 people basically voted for a facist candidate

Results here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/french- ... 012-france

MaxwellBygraves

Working class vote according to Ipsos: LePen 30%, Hollande 27%, Sarkozy 18%, Melenchon 12%, Bayrou 8%

nathancom

I guess everything depends on how much of the LePen vote now switches to Sarkozy or just stays at home.

MaxwellBygraves

nathancom wrote:

I guess everything depends on how much of the LePen vote now switches to Sarkozy or just stays at home.

If you were a betting man, the safe money would still be on Hollande. Still, anything can happen.

Just because he's centre right doesn't mean they'll automatically transfer. He's not a popular man in France - it's been dubbed the 'anyone but Sarko' election.

EKIMIKE

Rick Chasey wrote:

Within reason, it's been proven that spending cash doesn't make much difference!

Sorry for going back a bit in time here but surely it has to be said that whilst spending cash doesn't make much difference to the outcome of the election itself, there a lot to be said for how that cash affects the policies of the recipient politician... and that it ultimately what matters.

alihisgreat

EKIMIKE wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Within reason, it's been proven that spending cash doesn't make much difference!

Sorry for going back a bit in time here but surely it has to be said that whilst spending cash doesn't make much difference to the outcome of the election itself, there a lot to be said for how that cash affects the policies of the recipient politician... and that it ultimately what matters.

That's probably partly true, as the policy maker has to plan for the next election and keep the donors happy. But a lot of donations are to people who already have the same policy objectives as the donor, so they isn't really any need to influence.

It also depends on where the cash comes from -> if someone is funded by big business connections then influence is more likely to be an issue as they may lose millions if they don't keep a single donor happy.

However in 2008 Obama raised most of his money from small individual donors, without the power/cash to pressurise and influence.

EKIMIKE

Erm, Obama received huge backing from Wall Street. The consequent policy decisions speak for themselves. :evil:

Almost all of the 'peoples' rhetoric that surrounded Obama upon election now looks painfully naive with hindsight.

MaxwellBygraves

Good week for politics nerds, local elections coming up here with London Mayor and French presidential on Sunday.

Facist candidate Le Pen has today refused to endorse either Sarko or Hollande.

Hollande still fav. to win.

MaxwellBygraves

Polling underway today, Hollande still favourite to win.

Hearing estimates that so far Hollande is on 52% compared to Sarko's 48%. Good news!

crispybug2

The children from my first marriage all live in France, between Limoges and Clermont Ferrand, and I speak to them most every day. They are all completely enthused by the election and have talked about it to me almost every day for the last two weeks or so, mostly their viewpoint is anti Sarkosy in common it seems with most French schoochildren. They are aged 17, 15 and 12, I genuinely believe that they wouldn't be even slightly interested in politics in the UK, in France there is genuine differences between the political parties whereas here the main political parties are one homogenous lump.

OffTheBackAdam

crispybug2 wrote:

whereas here the main political parties are one homogenous lump.

Now, ain't that just the truth!
The Millicleggaron Party!

MaxwellBygraves

crispybug2 wrote:

The children from my first marriage all live in France, between Limoges and Clermont Ferrand, and I speak to them most every day. They are all completely enthused by the election and have talked about it to me almost every day for the last two weeks or so, mostly their viewpoint is anti Sarkosy in common it seems with most French schoochildren. They are aged 17, 15 and 12, I genuinely believe that they wouldn't be even slightly interested in politics in the UK, in France there is genuine differences between the political parties whereas here the main political parties are one homogenous lump.

Nice story, good to hear them taking an interest in politics.

MaxwellBygraves

Just breaking: Socialist candidate Francois Hollande has been elected the new President of France, beating incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, 52% to 48%.

Vive la France!

MaxwellBygraves

A few facts:

France shames the UK with a turnout of approx. 80.5%.

Sarko is the first President to fail at re-election bid since 1981, when President Giscard d'Estaing was not re-elected

Hollande is the first Socialist President to be elected in France since Francois Mitterrand in 1988.

David Cameron refused to even meet Hollande when he visited London just a few weeks ago.

The last time the UK saw turnout that high was in 1951.

Sarkozy is expected to resign as leader of his party.

nathancom

This is fantastic news. Sarkozy doesn't have to worry about removing his £45k watch now that he now longer needs to lower himself to shaking ordinary people's hands.

This is going to make the upcoming months very interesting. Is Hollande going to be able to make any headway against the current idiotic and dangerous austerity pact?

MaxwellBygraves

nathancom wrote:

Is Hollande going to be able to make any headway against the current idiotic and dangerous austerity pact?

I certainly hope so. The tide seems to be shifting slowly but surely.

geoffgomez

Logically this is good news for the UK as, if he succeeds in implementing his 75% tax rate, I would expect a lot of French tax revenue to migrate our way. I think it will be good news for the City as well, pretty much for the same reason. Be interesting to see how relations with Germany go in the next few months, particularly with the Greeks looking likely to ditch their government and presumably default. I suspect Angela Merkel is not very happy right now.

MaxwellBygraves

According to pollsters, Hollande beat Sarko in every age group under the age of 60. Bravo, Francois!

bompington

I would say this is pretty good news for Cameron and the Tories: by the next UK election it will have given three years or so to demonstrate what good old-fashioned tax'n'spend can do to a country in tough economic times.