French Presidential Elections
MaxwellBygraves
Posts: 1,353
So this Sunday sees the first round of voting for the new French president. I'm bored, it's raining out and so I thought I'd write a wee post on what's going down. I've always found European politics particularly interesting too.
French Presidents are elected for a fixed term of five years and like the US president can only serve a max of two terms in office. The electoral formula used is a bit different to what we're used to - all candidates stand in a first round of voting. People go to the polls and vote for their first choice candidate. If no-one wins an absolute majority, which rarely happens, there is another round of voting after the first round where just the two highest scoring candidates from the first round are put to the public vote. The public then have to vote for their preference of the two. Winner becomes president.
This can and does lead to very interesting situations - for instance in the elections of 2002, Jacques Chirac, centre-right, and Jean-Marie Le Pen, far-right, were the two candidates to make the second round (Le Pen sprung a big surprise). This lead to a bizarre situation where those on the left in France rallied for Chirac to prevent the far-right candidate winning. Chirac won in the second round with a landslide 82% of the vote.
So who is running this time around?
Current President, Nicolas Sarkozy
Sarkozy's politics can generally be described as right-of-centre. Once riding high in the polls, he's now struggling relative to his previous support. I don't think he's too dissimilar to our own Mr. Cameron. I think he's had a fairly strong campaign but he faces challenges on both sides.
From the left, most voters appear to think that Mr. Hollande is better placed to deal with high unemployment in France. From the right, Le Pen is extremely attractive to many of Mr. Sarkozy's core support base. To counter this, he's promised a tougher stance on immigration and promised to ban halal meat in schools. He has also promised more spending cuts in order to reduce the deficit. He's nicknamed in France as 'President Bling' because of the extravagent lifestyle he has led as president. The main counter from Sarkozy to Hollande is to accuse his rival of being a reckless spender and incompetent and weak.
The main rival, Francois Hollande
Barring any upsets, Francois Hollande of the Socialist party will be the next French president. He's run a considered campaign, careful not to appear too radical, trying to look 'normal' compared to Sarkozy. This is despite Melenchon shifting the debate to the left. He recently met Ed Miliband in London, but the French Socialist party are probably well to the left of the Labour party.
His policies include creating thousands of new jobs, especially in education, to help get people into work, a 75% top rate of tax for those earning over a million euros a year, changes to the retirement age and no immediate renationalisations. The main threat to his campaign is that he loses votes to Melenchon and doesn't make the second round. Most polls put him neck and neck with Sarkozy in the first round, with Hollande having a comfortable lead in the second. I reckon that his main problem is that for undecided voters he lacks the leadership of Sarkozy.
The surprise, Jean-Luc Melenchon
So far the surprise of the campaign is hard-left Melenchon who became disillusioned with the Socialist party for being too moderate. He has succeeded in uniting many left wingers under one banner (The Left Front) and is polling third behind Hollande and Sarkozy, and his standing is continuing to rise.
He has based his campaign on a radical, anti-establishment manifesto of policies such as a 100% tax on earnings over 360,000 Euros, 20% rise in minimum wage, referendum on the EU, free university education, withdrawal from NATO and a ban on profit-making companies laying off workers. Although increasingly popular, it's unlikely he'll reach second round, but I wouldn't rule it out yet. He owes a lot of his success to his excellent ability to deliver speeches.
The far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen
Daughter of aforementioned Jean-Marie Le Pen, she is the candidate for the National Front. Her Father was convicted for hate crimes after suggesting the Nazi occupation of France was 'not particularly inhumane' and describing the holocaust as 'just a detail'. Marine has tried to modernise her party in an attempt to distance herself from her Father.
Her policies include removing France from the Euro, severely limiting the amount of migrants allowed into France and ending the 'Islamisation' of France. Her standing in the polls has fallen dramatically as Sarkozy has tacked to the right (as mentioned) in an attempt to stop voters switching to Le Pen.
Francois Bayrou
The centrist candidate, sits roughly in the middle between Sarkozy and Hollande. His policies include spending cuts (though less so than Sarkozy), further European co-operation and greater private sector job creation. Most polls have him behind Melenchon and Le Pen.
From what I can gather he's a bit like the Nick Clegg of French politics, i.e in the middle with not that much to say. Still not far enough behind to rule out though.
So that's the lot. As I have said, most polls put Sarkozy and Hollande into the second round with Hollande winning comfortably. However, it isn't set in stone and a late surge in support for any of the other candidates could provide an upset and we could still see either Melenchon or Le Pen into the second round yet. What do you reckon?
French Presidents are elected for a fixed term of five years and like the US president can only serve a max of two terms in office. The electoral formula used is a bit different to what we're used to - all candidates stand in a first round of voting. People go to the polls and vote for their first choice candidate. If no-one wins an absolute majority, which rarely happens, there is another round of voting after the first round where just the two highest scoring candidates from the first round are put to the public vote. The public then have to vote for their preference of the two. Winner becomes president.
This can and does lead to very interesting situations - for instance in the elections of 2002, Jacques Chirac, centre-right, and Jean-Marie Le Pen, far-right, were the two candidates to make the second round (Le Pen sprung a big surprise). This lead to a bizarre situation where those on the left in France rallied for Chirac to prevent the far-right candidate winning. Chirac won in the second round with a landslide 82% of the vote.
So who is running this time around?
Current President, Nicolas Sarkozy
Sarkozy's politics can generally be described as right-of-centre. Once riding high in the polls, he's now struggling relative to his previous support. I don't think he's too dissimilar to our own Mr. Cameron. I think he's had a fairly strong campaign but he faces challenges on both sides.
From the left, most voters appear to think that Mr. Hollande is better placed to deal with high unemployment in France. From the right, Le Pen is extremely attractive to many of Mr. Sarkozy's core support base. To counter this, he's promised a tougher stance on immigration and promised to ban halal meat in schools. He has also promised more spending cuts in order to reduce the deficit. He's nicknamed in France as 'President Bling' because of the extravagent lifestyle he has led as president. The main counter from Sarkozy to Hollande is to accuse his rival of being a reckless spender and incompetent and weak.
The main rival, Francois Hollande
Barring any upsets, Francois Hollande of the Socialist party will be the next French president. He's run a considered campaign, careful not to appear too radical, trying to look 'normal' compared to Sarkozy. This is despite Melenchon shifting the debate to the left. He recently met Ed Miliband in London, but the French Socialist party are probably well to the left of the Labour party.
His policies include creating thousands of new jobs, especially in education, to help get people into work, a 75% top rate of tax for those earning over a million euros a year, changes to the retirement age and no immediate renationalisations. The main threat to his campaign is that he loses votes to Melenchon and doesn't make the second round. Most polls put him neck and neck with Sarkozy in the first round, with Hollande having a comfortable lead in the second. I reckon that his main problem is that for undecided voters he lacks the leadership of Sarkozy.
The surprise, Jean-Luc Melenchon
So far the surprise of the campaign is hard-left Melenchon who became disillusioned with the Socialist party for being too moderate. He has succeeded in uniting many left wingers under one banner (The Left Front) and is polling third behind Hollande and Sarkozy, and his standing is continuing to rise.
He has based his campaign on a radical, anti-establishment manifesto of policies such as a 100% tax on earnings over 360,000 Euros, 20% rise in minimum wage, referendum on the EU, free university education, withdrawal from NATO and a ban on profit-making companies laying off workers. Although increasingly popular, it's unlikely he'll reach second round, but I wouldn't rule it out yet. He owes a lot of his success to his excellent ability to deliver speeches.
The far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen
Daughter of aforementioned Jean-Marie Le Pen, she is the candidate for the National Front. Her Father was convicted for hate crimes after suggesting the Nazi occupation of France was 'not particularly inhumane' and describing the holocaust as 'just a detail'. Marine has tried to modernise her party in an attempt to distance herself from her Father.
Her policies include removing France from the Euro, severely limiting the amount of migrants allowed into France and ending the 'Islamisation' of France. Her standing in the polls has fallen dramatically as Sarkozy has tacked to the right (as mentioned) in an attempt to stop voters switching to Le Pen.
Francois Bayrou
The centrist candidate, sits roughly in the middle between Sarkozy and Hollande. His policies include spending cuts (though less so than Sarkozy), further European co-operation and greater private sector job creation. Most polls have him behind Melenchon and Le Pen.
From what I can gather he's a bit like the Nick Clegg of French politics, i.e in the middle with not that much to say. Still not far enough behind to rule out though.
So that's the lot. As I have said, most polls put Sarkozy and Hollande into the second round with Hollande winning comfortably. However, it isn't set in stone and a late surge in support for any of the other candidates could provide an upset and we could still see either Melenchon or Le Pen into the second round yet. What do you reckon?
"That's it! You people have stood in my way long enough. I'm going to clown college! " - Homer
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Comments
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haven't you missed out Jules Avoirdupois Ackroyd
The dissenter is every human being at those moments of his life when he resigns
momentarily from the herd and thinks for himself.0 -
Couldn't give a flying fark, who the kermits elect.
They still dance to the EU pipers' tunes, like us.Remember that you are an Englishman and thus have won first prize in the lottery of life.0 -
Sophie Marceau not running?? She'd look better in high heels than Sarkozy. I'd put a big X in her box faster than an arrow whacking King Harold's eye.........................
"There's a shortage of perfect breasts in this world, t'would be a pity to damage yours."0 -
We need a PTP for European elections.0
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Now, let's imagine a British female politician like that!
Hmmm, let me start....
Claire Short?Remember that you are an Englishman and thus have won first prize in the lottery of life.0 -
OffTheBackAdam wrote:Couldn't give a flying fark, who the kermits elect.
They still dance to the EU pipers' tunes, like us.
Given your views, I'd have thought that you'd be quite interested considering several candidates, who are doing quite well in the polls, are opposed to further integration/ in favour of referendum (albeit for quite different reasons)"That's it! You people have stood in my way long enough. I'm going to clown college! " - Homer0 -
"That's it! You people have stood in my way long enough. I'm going to clown college! " - Homer0
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MaxwellBygraves wrote:OffTheBackAdam wrote:Couldn't give a flying fark, who the kermits elect.
They still dance to the EU pipers' tunes, like us.
Given your views, I'd have thought that you'd be quite interested considering several candidates, who are doing quite well in the polls, are opposed to further integration/ in favour of referendum (albeit for quite different reasons)
What their views expressed in public are, is doubtless very different from what they'll actually do if they get into power.Remember that you are an Englishman and thus have won first prize in the lottery of life.0 -
OffTheBackAdam wrote:MaxwellBygraves wrote:OffTheBackAdam wrote:Couldn't give a flying fark, who the kermits elect.
They still dance to the EU pipers' tunes, like us.
Given your views, I'd have thought that you'd be quite interested considering several candidates, who are doing quite well in the polls, are opposed to further integration/ in favour of referendum (albeit for quite different reasons)
What their views expressed in public are, is doubtless very different from what they'll actually do if they get into power.
Fair enough. I think a certain level of distrust of elected officials is healthy.
But do you think the likes of, say, UKIP in the UK would renege on their electoral promises?"That's it! You people have stood in my way long enough. I'm going to clown college! " - Homer0 -
Former President Chirac breaks rank and intends to vote Hollande: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 54790.html"That's it! You people have stood in my way long enough. I'm going to clown college! " - Homer0
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Are criminals allowed to vote then?0
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Nice post.. but i just don't find European politics interesting at all -> American politics is where there is excitement to be found!0
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ALIHISGREAT wrote:Nice post.. but i just don't find European politics interesting at all -> American politics is where there is excitement to be found!
By excitement, do you mean an absolutely hilarious freak show?0 -
johnfinch wrote:ALIHISGREAT wrote:Nice post.. but i just don't find European politics interesting at all -> American politics is where there is excitement to be found!
By excitement, do you mean an absolutely frightening freak show?
CTFY0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:johnfinch wrote:ALIHISGREAT wrote:Nice post.. but i just don't find European politics interesting at all -> American politics is where there is excitement to be found!
By excitement, do you mean an absolutely frightening freak show?
CTFY
I'll start to get frightened once one of the real psychos gets near power again. Until then, we've got another 4 years of relative calm.0 -
Indeed, much prefer European politics. US politics is scary. Obviously I'm biased because in Europe you have real chances for genuinely left-wing candidates."That's it! You people have stood in my way long enough. I'm going to clown college! " - Homer0
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Elections in Europe matter more to the average Brit than US elections do.
Only difference is they don't speak English so no-one here can be arsed to watch their speeches.
I will celebrate the day UK TV decides to get over the language barrier and sub-title like any other civilised nation.0 -
ALIHISGREAT wrote:Nice post.. but i just don't find European politics interesting at all -> American politics is where there is excitement to be found!
What is exciting? Man/woman with biggest budget invariably wins. Even more-so than here.
Oh and doesn't the taller guy always win as well?0 -
CambsNewbie wrote:ALIHISGREAT wrote:Nice post.. but i just don't find European politics interesting at all -> American politics is where there is excitement to be found!
What is exciting? Man/woman with biggest budget invariably wins. Even more-so than here.
There's a well known study that suggest that the reason the person with the biggest budget wins is because once it's clear someone is going to win, they give them lots of cash.
Within reason, it's been proven that spending cash doesn't make much difference!0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:CambsNewbie wrote:ALIHISGREAT wrote:Nice post.. but i just don't find European politics interesting at all -> American politics is where there is excitement to be found!
What is exciting? Man/woman with biggest budget invariably wins. Even more-so than here.
There's a well known study that suggest that the reason the person with the biggest budget wins is because once it's clear someone is going to win, they give them lots of cash.
Within reason, it's been proven that spending cash doesn't make much difference!
I suppose during the actual election campaign spending is not so much of an issue...
but the problem is in the primary campaign; the front loading of the primaries towards the beginning of the year means that the smaller 'outsider' candidates can't raise enough money quickly enough to compete effectively in the early season primaries (which are the majority of primaries) so they can't win.
and the regulations are terrible.. eg. they tried to limit spending by introducing a system whereby if you agreed to a spending limit then the state would double your fundraising efforts up to that limit. (eg you earn $200000, the state adds $200000 up to $10m dollars)... but then people like Obama just laugh in their faces because they know they can raise hundreds of millions more independently (Obama raised something like $800m in the 2008 campaign) and there is nothing anyone can do about it because its a constitutional right.0 -
Good graphic here detailing voting intentions: http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presiden ... 71069.html"That's it! You people have stood in my way long enough. I'm going to clown college! " - Homer0
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Rick Chasey wrote:Elections in Europe matter more to the average Brit than US elections do.
Only difference is they don't speak English so no-one here can be arsed to watch their speeches.
I will celebrate the day UK TV decides to get over the language barrier and sub-title like any other civilised nation.
Everyone else should speak English."There's a shortage of perfect breasts in this world, t'would be a pity to damage yours."0 -
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/04 ... on-france/
If anyone's interested on the financial/economic stuff the president is likely to inherit, you should enjoy this.0 -
Apparently George Galloway has given his backing to Jean-Luc Melenchon."That's it! You people have stood in my way long enough. I'm going to clown college! " - Homer0
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I thought this was a good blog post about the implications for European politics in the wake of the French election: http://shiftinggrounds.org/2012/04/succ ... he-debate/"That's it! You people have stood in my way long enough. I'm going to clown college! " - Homer0
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France 24 on some of the satelite channels - News from France in English.
We should be more interested in European politics. I have had the pleasure of travelling/living on the continent and they are all a bit like us. The yanks are scary - look at that Sarah Palin freak and the things she was suggesting.
In the 'most democratic' nation in the world, if you want to be president you have got to be super rich and or raise a hell of a lot of money. Some form of democracy that is.
Here is an interesting fact: there are over 1000 US military bases world wide.
I say, re-colonise the baskets, teach them how to play Cricket, make them apologise for that tea fiasco, teach them how to play rugby without helmets and ecsessive padding. Obama sent W Churchills bust back - cheeky fokker, if it was'nt for Churchill, he would be dealing with a very different 'federal' Europe.
Thats my rant over.
I'll sign yer petition maxb, I did like your post - it initiated the posting of a couple of cute French women. I'm going off to whistle the Marseillaise, drink Nesquik and eat croissants whilst burning the yankee flag!seanoconn - gruagach craic!0 -
The dissenter is every human being at those moments of his life when he resigns
momentarily from the herd and thinks for himself.0 -
France grows tired of Sarkozy: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... -president"That's it! You people have stood in my way long enough. I'm going to clown college! " - Homer0
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This ought to raise a few eyebrows. Daily Mail editorial comes out in favour of facist Le Pen: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/artic ... e-Pen.html"That's it! You people have stood in my way long enough. I'm going to clown college! " - Homer0
