PTP - What's your strategy?

tailwindhome
tailwindhome Posts: 19,431
edited April 2012 in Pro race
So I'm interested in how you make your selections.

Do you study the 'form book', analysing the route, previous results and feed all your data into a sophisticated spreadsheet to determine the winner?

Do you go by gut feeling?

Do you follow the herd?

Do you go against the grain?
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
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Comments

  • LangerDan
    LangerDan Posts: 6,132
    I employ an infinite number of monkeys.

    Otherwise a "wild stab in the dark" approach usually suffices.
    'This week I 'ave been mostly been climbing like Basso - Shirley Basso.'
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    I definitely have a strategy this year.

    Absolutely not going to say what it is.
    _
  • jgsi
    jgsi Posts: 5,062
    My excuse is debut season and the fact that everyone just disappoints me as I sit in my virtual Skoda.
  • andyjr
    andyjr Posts: 635
    Having played last year it made me wise to a couple fo things. So for this year it's a mixture of profile/stage studying, going with the majority in some cases (so as not to lose points) & trying to find the opportunities to put 'one over on some people' in picking someone different
  • rebs
    rebs Posts: 891
    mixture of looking at the stage. Worth being bold on days where Breakaways have a chance of winning.

    I'm useless so not sure why you would want to listen to me!
  • afx237vi
    afx237vi Posts: 12,630
    rebs wrote:
    mixture of looking at the stage. Worth being bold on days where Breakaways have a chance of winning.

    I'm useless so not sure why you would want to listen to me!

    Hah, I was about to suggest the opposite and say it's worth picking a sprinter to get some minor placement points rather than taking a blind punt at someone getting in a breakaway on one of those intermediate grand tour stages.

    But I'm rubbish too... my strategy just consists of looking at the stage profile then guessing.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    I definitely have a strategy this year.

    Absolutely not going to say what it is.

    Let me guess. Is it picking Boonen whenever possible?
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    RichN95 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    I definitely have a strategy this year.

    Absolutely not going to say what it is.

    Let me guess. Is it picking Boonen whenever possible?

    It isn't actually!!

    Pretty sure I didn't pick him for M-SR..!
    _
  • TheStone
    TheStone Posts: 2,291
    If you want to win you've got to play safe.
    Every tour/stage/race has a handful of favourites and you go with your gut feel from them.
    exercise.png
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    afx237vi wrote:
    But I'm rubbish too... my strategy just consists of looking at the stage profile then guessing.

    I think that goes for at least 80% of us.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • rozzer32
    rozzer32 Posts: 3,923
    TheStone wrote:
    If you want to win you've got to play safe.
    Every tour/stage/race has a handful of favourites and you go with your gut feel from them.

    I do something like this. Have a look at the profile and see who it would suit. Sometimes I go for a bit of a guess i.e man in a break winning.

    Also luck plays a big part, last year I had a lot of it. This year a few of my picks have crashed/had mechanicals which leave me with no points :(
    ***** Pro Tour Pundit Champion 2020, 2018, 2017 & 2011 *****
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    You do know that some riders who go for 'points' - whether they're world tour points or sprint jersey points are always a good bet to get SOME PTP points in.

    Cancellara in M-SR being a good example.
    _
  • LeicesterLad
    LeicesterLad Posts: 3,908
    This thread is just wrong.

    A. If i had a strategy i wouldn't tell anyone, I want to win.

    B. It shows what a bunch of sad b@stards we all are. Me included.
    http://www.twitter.com/InTheGC http://www.InTheGC.com http://www.facebook.com/intheGC
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    LeicesterLad wrote:
    This thread is just wrong.

    A. If i had a strategy i wouldn't tell anyone, I want to win.

    B. It shows what a bunch of sad b@stards we all are. Me included.


    I think the post-count (and rate) of some is a bigger indicator of that! :P
    _
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,462
    Is this a new race then? What's the route and start list?

    I try to avoid out-and-out favourites. As you'll see from my scores this usually a reason why the favourites are the favourites!!
  • LeicesterLad
    LeicesterLad Posts: 3,908
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    LeicesterLad wrote:
    This thread is just wrong.

    A. If i had a strategy i wouldn't tell anyone, I want to win.

    B. It shows what a bunch of sad b@stards we all are. Me included.


    I think the post-count (and rate) of some is a bigger indicator of that! :P

    I think the post-count (and rate) of some as a direct effect of posting PTP picks is the biggest indicator of that! :lol:
    http://www.twitter.com/InTheGC http://www.InTheGC.com http://www.facebook.com/intheGC
  • richard wants a baum
    richard wants a baum Posts: 744
    I had Davis down for the first and second stage of Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco, he comes in 3rd from last for the first stage so i change my pick. What happens?, he comes in 2nd :roll: Milan San Remo i spent the week talking to my dad about possible winners i raised Gerrans a couple of times because i reckon it will break up and he would look good in a small sprint. Of for PTP i went with the safe option of Cancellara, still score points but spend the rest of the weekend thinking what if. Same with Flanders in the top 15 so play it safe and go with Cancellara because he will place even if he doesnt win. I have played a couple of years and I've learned that its nice to go out on a limb and pick left field but the ones that seem to be up there come the end of the season seem to pick based on who will place and leave the left field guess's to the small one week tours were missing points doesn't hurt you too much.
    Take care of the luxuries and the necessites will take care of themselves.
  • rozzer32
    rozzer32 Posts: 3,923
    Basically people don't pick whoever I pick. Because I'm having a f***ing mare at the minute.
    ***** Pro Tour Pundit Champion 2020, 2018, 2017 & 2011 *****
  • jgsi
    jgsi Posts: 5,062
    Passing a can of 7up around the team Skoda, I seem to have picked up points today...
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,462
    Couldn't decide between two riders for Scheldpries. I picked the one that came nowhere whilst the other won. First stage pick for Pais Vasco came nowhere then finished second on stage 2 and picked the rider who finished 5th for today whilst the person I've got for tomorrow won!
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,649
    My strategy is to forget to predict, become despondent at all the PTP points I might have won going out of the window, give it up as a pointless exercise that only serves to prove my ignorance of pro racing and inability to properly commit to such a time consuming endeavour, then drink lots of beer.

    Hope that helps.
    Warning No formatter is installed for the format
  • ms_tree
    ms_tree Posts: 1,405
    I've tried looking at the profile and picking a rider that will suit but it doesn't always work as I also only pick riders that I like or have had promising results before (then don't do anything again!). I don't like to pick the obvious favourite and I don't pick riders who are dodgy even if it means I don't win.
    'Google can bring back a hundred thousand answers. A librarian can bring you back the right one.'
    Neil Gaiman
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    As an aside, didn't the winner of the very first PTP season actually win a prize? It was back when this forum was on the C+ website and I think they donated something. Was it an apron? A fellow C+ veteran may remember. I'd make more effort for an apron.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • iainf72
    iainf72 Posts: 15,784
    RichN95 wrote:
    As an aside, didn't the winner of the very first PTP season actually win a prize? It was back when this forum was on the C+ website and I think they donated something. Was it an apron? A fellow C+ veteran may remember. I'd make more effort for an apron.

    It was an apron. Bloody masons get everywhere.

    My main problem with PTP is I have a hard time picking riders I actively dislike. And I pay for that an awful lot.
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    As to strategy, I toyed in the off season of setting up a second account and playing with that one by either a) copying whoever posted first or b) picking the most popular choice (the wisdom of crowds theory). I hadn't chosen which option to do and frankly couldn't be bothered in the end. I'm fairly sure I would have beaten me though.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    iainf72 wrote:
    RichN95 wrote:
    As an aside, didn't the winner of the very first PTP season actually win a prize? It was back when this forum was on the C+ website and I think they donated something. Was it an apron? A fellow C+ veteran may remember. I'd make more effort for an apron.

    It was an apron. Bloody masons get everywhere.

    My main problem with PTP is I have a hard time picking riders I actively dislike. And I pay for that an awful lot.

    My conscience is clear.
    _
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,820
    I pick people I'd like to win, cos then it's more fun when you're watching to cheer on your pick.

    As SkyBet [don't] say, it matters more when there's [PTP points] on it.
  • StrawberryFields
    StrawberryFields Posts: 232
    Maybe there should be an offshoot PTP for predicting who's going to win PTP!
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,887
    Ms Tree wrote:
    I don't pick riders who are dodgy even if it means I don't win.

    That's got to be quite a limiting criterion.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    StrawberryFields wrote:
    Maybe there should be an offshoot PTP for predicting who's going to win PTP!


    That could all get very meta.
    _

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