Get the cold weather gear ready EARLY

Kieran_Burns

http://news.uk.msn.com/uk/forecasters-w ... in-october

Forecasters warn of snow in October

Dig out your hat and scarf and get ready for an early winter; forecasters are predicting that snow will fall in Britain as early as next month.

Temperatures will fall sharply over the coming months and are forecast to drop below average for the time of year.

Long-range forecasters at Exacta Weather have also said that we should brace ourselves for another brutal winter from December through to February.

James Madden said: "As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK.

"I expect December, January, and February to experience below-average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to ­January across many parts of the UK."

Mr Madden added that the UK will face ­"prolonged periods of extreme cold and snow from the Arctic regions as cold easterlies or north-easterlies develop".

The Met Office also warned that we should expect colder-than-average nights at the beginning of October, which would bring with them the chance of overnight frosts. The Midlands and the South-east are expected to bear the brunt of the cold snap.

Heavy snowfall and freezing conditions have caused chaos across Britain for the last two winters and it looks like we can expect more of the same this time round.

I think I have everything I need from last year... looks like my CX tyres will be making an early christening.

notsoblue

Aaaaaaaaand now I've heard of "Exacta Weather"

Good job, Exacta Weather PR team!

Cafewanda

And London will shut down, including the airports :roll:

I'd better get my winter gloves and walking boots by the weekend

bails87

notsoblue wrote:

Aaaaaaaaand now I've heard of "Exacta Weather"

Good job, Exacta Weather PR team!

You beat me to it! An easy story for the Express the other day, and some free PR for the forecaster (yes, there's just one of them, he's currently doing a geography degree).

Have you seen their oh-so-professional website?
http://www.exactaweather.com

mossychops

I'll get me Marathon Winters ready. Just have to remember after getting to work there is ice on the floor and not to slip over when I put my feet down.

Was late for the train last winter and actually made it by going full belt all the way over some very icy roads.

notsoblue

bails87 wrote:

notsoblue wrote:

Aaaaaaaaand now I've heard of "Exacta Weather"

Good job, Exacta Weather PR team!

You beat me to it! An easy story for the Express the other day, and some free PR for the forecaster (yes, there's just one of them, he's currently doing a geography degree).

Have you seen their oh-so-professional website?
http://www.exactaweather.com

Good lord, what a crock. And this made the front page of the Express?! An undergraduate guessing the weather...

rjsterry

Saw a programme on chaos theory the other day, which used weather forecasting as an example. They showed the results of the computer weather models: 1 day - all the predictions cluster around one obvious 'most likely scenario'. Run it on a few days and the different results start to spread out, so a depressiion might be over the op of the uK, still in the Atlantic, or over Scandinavia. Run it on a couple of weeks and it's anyone's guess. Long range forecasting is hokum.

BTW, didn't the Express predict a heatwave this summer?

joelsim

How good are the winter tyres?

bdave262000

And an Indian summer has been forecast for the next few weeks. The best way to predict the weather is to open your curtains in the morning and take a look outsie.

Mr Plum

rjsterry wrote:

BTW, didn't the Express predict a heatwave this summer?

There was that Friday and Saturday in July...

bails87

rjsterry wrote:

BTW, didn't the Express predict a heatwave this summer?

They're not exactly consistent with a lot of their reporting:
31st August 2011:
4th Sept 2011
12th Sept 2011

They also revealed a new miracle diet that could reduce heart disease. The secrets were drinking less alcohol, doing exercise, eating less saturated fat and more fruit and veg. Revolutionary :roll:

As for winter....snow you say, well that's an excuse for a new bike, so maybe I should believe it.....

rick_chasey

notsoblue wrote:

bails87 wrote:

notsoblue wrote:

Aaaaaaaaand now I've heard of "Exacta Weather"

Good job, Exacta Weather PR team!

You beat me to it! An easy story for the Express the other day, and some free PR for the forecaster (yes, there's just one of them, he's currently doing a geography degree).

Have you seen their oh-so-professional website?
http://www.exactaweather.com

Good lord, what a crock. And this made the front page of the Express?! An undergraduate guessing the weather...

http://www.freakonomics.com/2008/04/21/ ... forecasts/

mossychops

*puts me ice spike tyres away again*

Weather prediction is the very definition of Chaos theory ie it's impossible. You can be pretty accurate within a few hours using pressure trends (ie a barometer) but anything longer than that is impossible. I once read that you could be more accurate just copying yesterdays actual weather for today than looking at cloud patterns.

Loving that picture of a foot of snow on top of a 4x4 - they should put photos of milk bottles piling up outside old peoples bungalows and pictures of people using climbing gear to get through 4 foot of snow - really s*** us up.

MaxwellBygraves

This sure is a favourite tactic of papers like the Express/Mail...obscure weather company issues outlandish weather forecast based on dubious credentials, Mail/Express publish big story based on it to scare your gran. Paper gets sensational story, obscure weather company gets plenty of publicity. Then, when the forecast turns out to be a load of balls, the paper can run a story about how useless the countries weather forecasters are when the Met Office etc never actually said anything of the sort.

mossychops

Joelsim wrote:

How good are the winter tyres?

I loved them, you need to buy them early though or they run out. I got Schwalbe Marathon Winters. These are built to be left on all winter, when you first get them they make a gentle clacking noise which quietens down when the studs are pushed in firmly (they recommend a few miles before the ice with no heavy braking or turning). My old route to the station had a park and a road that became sheet ice, I was testing them out on this road when I first got them by cornering and braking hard to see how good they were, they didnt slip at all so I decided to put my feet down to see if it was just frost and not ice and slipped over.

I left them on for 4-5 months all weather, just like normal Marathons when there's no ice and the studs rounded off only slightly during that time. I reckon you could get 2-3 winters out of them depending on how hard and far you ride. They are not designed for deep fresh snow (2-3 inches plus) - they clog up a bit, but then the deep snow tyres are not as good on ice or normal road so they seemed to be the most sensible for the UK and are fine if you cycle in the tyre tracks.

Definately recommend them - got me up some icy hills that cars slid back down with not a single loss of traction.

Edit: Some people take the car in the icy weather - I found the risk of an accident and time taken to be much less on the bike/train with these tyres than in the car. Bit of slow riding on the pavement in heavy traffic areas to avoid the idiots. Definately be doing it again this year.

rjsterry

bails87 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

BTW, didn't the Express predict a heatwave this summer?

They're not exactly consistent with a lot of their reporting:
31st August 2011:
4th Sept 2011
12th Sept 2011

They also revealed a new miracle diet that could reduce heart disease. The secrets were drinking less alcohol, doing exercise, eating less saturated fat and more fruit and veg. Revolutionary :roll:

As for winter....snow you say, well that's an excuse for a new bike, so maybe I should believe it.....

Love that Joan Collins story. Could also read "Britain Today: Why we despair of Joan Collins"

bails87

mossychops
Are they really as heavy as they say? My Gatorskins are apparently 250g, the Winters are >900g!

Kieran_Burns

Gawd you lot are miserable.

Here's a story where we can look forward to swanning past all the stuck cars and you lot tear it apart.

Yeesh.

Don't mind me, I'll be over there kicking the cat.

UndercoverElephant

bails87 wrote:

mossychops
Are they really as heavy as they say? My Gatorskins are apparently 250g, the Winters are >900g!

To be fair, you're comparing them to normal tyres. The 700x35 Marathon Winters are actually slightly lighter than the same-sized Marathon Plus tyres some people ride all-year round.

bails87

UndercoverElephant wrote:

bails87 wrote:

mossychops
Are they really as heavy as they say? My Gatorskins are apparently 250g, the Winters are >900g!

To be fair, you're comparing them to normal tyres. The 700x35 Marathon Winters are actually slightly lighter than the same-sized Marathon Plus tyres some people ride all-year round.

Obviously I was expecting them to be heavy, I was just suprised they weighed almost the same as a 2.4" dual ply downhill tyre.

didn't know normal Marathon Pluses were so heavy.

mossychops

Wiggle say 995g for the 26" x 1.75. I put them on my mountain bike (disc brakes) and they seemed no different from normal rigid MTB tyres. Certainly most weight must come from the Kevlar bead and belt. The tungsten spike weight must be very low although I guess 200 spikes at 0.5g each is still 100g extra (apparently tungsten is the better metal as it doesnt wear much on non-icy roads unlike steel etc)

Just checked some other Marathon Plus tyres and they are about the same weight. Quite a lot heavier than your Gatorskins by the look of it.

mossychops

UndercoverElephant wrote:

To be fair, you're comparing them to normal tyres. The 700x35 Marathon Winters are actually slightly lighter than the same-sized Marathon Plus tyres some people ride all-year round.

Yep, I guess the Kevlar (steel) belts and beads are heavier than the carbon mixture on the Gatorskins. They do seem heavy now, but like I said I didn't really notice when I put them on.

bails87

And 900g + grip is probably faster than 250g + no grip!

mossychops

bails87 wrote:

And 900g + grip is probably faster than 250g + no grip!

Depends on the angle of the hill you're going down and the coefficient of friction of your chops against the road.

Jay dubbleU

Time to dig out the winter tyres for the Duster methinks - oh and when I'm riding on winter tyres in my balaclava and rab jacket in blazing sunshine I won't curse Mr Burns and his geography student at all

MonkeyMonster

knobblies when i really need to otherwise nice grippy specialised all condition pros!

rolf_f

mossychops wrote:

I left them on for 4-5 months all weather, just like normal Marathons when there's no ice and the studs rounded off only slightly during that time.

Rather you than me - I just kept them on when there was potential for ice. I think I had them on for a couple of weeks (of which on no days were they actually necessary!) and then on for another few days. You'd lose more time in the slower riding than you lose by swapping the tyres over!

Initialised

I didn't get mine in time last year, used them for a week while there was still a bit of ice about. The amount of falls I had in the ice I'll be fitting them as soon as there's frost on the ground and keeping them on till spring. Also I'm 2 stone down on last winter so I wont bounce so easily so falling is to be avoided.

meanredspider

I was a bit shocked at the weight of the Marathon Winters - they are about the same as the regular Ice Spikers. I'm glad both bikes that use ice tyres have disc brakes!

I need ice tyres much of the time between Nov and March - especially because of the 700ft hill and its north-facing aspect. It's often 2-3C warmer in Inverness than my house.

UndercoverElephant

meanredspider wrote:

I was a bit shocked at the weight of the Marathon Winters - they are about the same as the regular Ice Spikers. I'm glad both bikes that use ice tyres have disc brakes!

Hang on, you what now? Why would having slightly heavier tyres mean you needed disc brakes? (Although disc brakes would have been great in the snow, my mini-V's on the Day One got so clogged with snow it was unbelievable).

Fourwheels

There's no call to belittle James Madden, just because he is still engaged in studying for a degree in Physical Geography. After all, he is already a graduate, and has amassed a wealth of knowledge in his favourite field, meteorology. More to the point, his weather forecasts for the last two winters, AND the last two summers have been accurate, much more so than those which came from the Met. Office, and he was confident enough of them to, as he put it at the time, "stick his neck out" and issue them, no matter that they were radically different form the long-range forecasts issued by the Met. Office.
James has not allowed himself, as many at the Met. Office have obviously done, to be fooled by all the fashionable hype about "Global Warming" (now called "Climate Change", apparently) and "Greenhouse Gases", and looks at all the factors objectively which affect our weather, especially the two main drivers of it : the sun, and the Gulf Stream Drift.