Ranking the riders' chances in TT

donrhummy
donrhummy Posts: 2,329
edited July 2011 in Pro race
So last year Andy rode the final TT at about 47 kph. it was a longer TT (52 km) and much flatter. So he's got a chance to do somewhere around the same speed.

In the past Cadel has ridden similar length TT's (50+ km) in the TDF at about 48.25 kph avg.

If the two of them kept those approximate speed differences, Cadel would win.

It's all conjecture and vague estimation, but in good fun!
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Comments

  • martylaa
    martylaa Posts: 147
    I was hoping Andy would gain another 30 secs on Cadel today because I think he needed it, still the adrenaline of wearIng the yellow jersey might push him on to do something special....
  • shinyhelmut
    shinyhelmut Posts: 1,364
    martylaa wrote:
    I was hoping Andy would gain another 30 secs on Cadel today because I think he needed it, still the adrenaline of wearIng the yellow jersey might push him on to do something special....

    Is "the adrenaline of wearing the yellow jersey" a euphemism for 500cc of platelets?
  • ozzzyosborn206
    ozzzyosborn206 Posts: 1,340
    Andy will be getting time checks on evans and anyone else that may be useful this could prove to be the difference as if it was the other way round i think he would be more likely to loose it by a few seconds. Wouldn't be surprised if frank looses his podium place though
  • iainf72
    iainf72 Posts: 15,784
    Lets remember Cadel did a pretty good performance on this exact TT course in June, and he wasn't in as good shape as he is now.

    Got uphill, twisty downhill and a bit that needs real power.
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • frenchfighter
    frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    Tough course. Martin did 42.5km in 55.27, Wiggins in 55.38 and Evans in 56.47
    Contador is the Greatest
  • iainf72
    iainf72 Posts: 15,784
    frenchfighter wrote:
    Tough course. Martin did 42.5km in 55.27, Wiggins in 55.38 and Evans in 56.47

    I reckon they'll go quicker tomorrow.
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • jon208
    jon208 Posts: 335
    ShinyHelmut wrote:
    martylaa wrote:
    I was hoping Andy would gain another 30 secs on Cadel today because I think he needed it, still the adrenaline of wearIng the yellow jersey might push him on to do something special....

    Is "the adrenaline of wearing the yellow jersey" a euphemism for 500cc of platelets?

    Might be handy if he had a clotting disorder but I can't see that being of any use at all in a TT...........
  • Echo et les Boniments
    Echo et les Boniments Posts: 142
    iainf72 wrote:
    frenchfighter wrote:
    Tough course. Martin did 42.5km in 55.27, Wiggins in 55.38 and Evans in 56.47

    I reckon they'll go quicker tomorrow.

    On that day it was raining and the leaders were very careful going downhill.
  • shinyhelmut
    shinyhelmut Posts: 1,364
    Might be handy if he had a clotting disorder but I can't see that being of any use at all in a TT...........

    apologies, it's a few years since I did my GCSE biology!
  • Mettan
    Mettan Posts: 2,103
    Any weather forecasts ??
  • MaxwellBygraves
    MaxwellBygraves Posts: 1,353
    Likely to rain, who does that favour? Evans I'm guessing.
    "That's it! You people have stood in my way long enough. I'm going to clown college! " - Homer
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    MaxwellBygraves wrote:
    Likely to rain, who does that favour? Evans I'm guessing.

    Well there are some descents and we've seen their relative abilities on a wet descent.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • fleshtuxedo
    fleshtuxedo Posts: 1,858
    RichN95 wrote:
    MaxwellBygraves wrote:
    Likely to rain, who does that favour? Evans I'm guessing.

    Well there are some descents and we've seen their relative abilities on a wet descent.

    TT bikes? Wet descents? TDF up for grabs?

    = CRASH!!!!
  • Echo et les Boniments
    Echo et les Boniments Posts: 142
    Well, the French equivalent of the Metoffice ("meteo France") says it will be mainly cloudy tomorrow afternoon in Grenoble with only a slim chance of rain.
  • donrhummy
    donrhummy Posts: 2,329
    Gonna be the best final TT since 1989 (Not final stage)?

    (Obviously not including 2006..., LOL)

    Would be incredible to see Evans pull this one out, he's REALLY earned it.
  • Mettan
    Mettan Posts: 2,103
    edited July 2011
    donrhummy wrote:
    Gonna be the best final TT since 1989 (Not final stage)?

    (Obviously not including 2006..., LOL)

    Would be incredible to see Evans pull this one out, he's REALLY earned it.

    Yeah agreed, Cadel has fought well (as ever) - some great chases from him - respect to the man - however, I want Andy to win - he's clearly performed the best overall and has been the most exciting of the GC's through-out. He's also been far closer to Contador in the last few years in the TDF than anyone else in the world - if anyone deserves it, Andy does (for me). I'm worried about tomorrow, but will just have to see on the day - here's hoping for good weather :)
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    I said Andy needed around 1-2 minutes at least in another thread before it kicked off today, and I'll stand by that.

    You can add 20 seconds to that too if it's raining.

    TTing with yellow helps a fair bit, but Evans looks so strong.
    _
  • Pokerface
    Pokerface Posts: 7,960
    Hard to imagine them going faster than they did in the Dauphine. They will be a lot more tired right now I would think.

    My heart want Cadel to win. But I have this sneaking suspicion that Andy will end up the winner by.... 13 seconds.
  • Tom Butcher
    Tom Butcher Posts: 3,830
    Heart says Evans, head says Schleck will just do enough. Let it rain.
    it's a hard life if you don't weaken.
  • Tusher
    Tusher Posts: 2,762
    No, let it pour. Evans for the win, Tommy for the podium. Please, please, Thomas for the podium.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    The bookies odds are firmly on a first Tour win for the Southern Hemisphere.

    Typical odds:

    Evans 3/5
    Schleck 5/4
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • dave_1
    dave_1 Posts: 9,512
    AndySchlek only lost about 32 seconds to contador over 52km last july, but a look at the Dauphine TT results from june shows the time gaps get huge outside the top 6 placings...Evans on a good day could do it, but it isn't conclusive. i fear Schlek will win by 2 or 3 seconds :-(
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKBacb2V ... ata_player
  • patchy
    patchy Posts: 779
    Either way, it's going to be extremely tight. Really hope Cadel can pull this one off.
    point your handlebars towards the heavens and sweat like you're in hell
  • El Imbatido
    El Imbatido Posts: 144
    You also have to remember that in the Dauphine it was wet and some of the GC guys probably didn't want to risk crashing and ruining their whole season just to win the Dauphine.

    On a sunny day IMO there is now way Wiggins puts 2min into Vinokourov...the only thing i find useful abou that TT is th fact Evans has ridden it before and knows the course. Andy on the otherhand i read somewhere will see the course for the first time tomorrow
    Do you have any Therapeutic Use Exemptions?
    No. Never have.
    Never? What about the cortisone?
    Well, obviously there was the cortisone
  • dave_1
    dave_1 Posts: 9,512
    okay guys. I believe Evans will win. Why? in 2010 Andy Schlek only lost 32 seconds in 52km to Contador...but Contador rode badly..the wind was the samefor Menchov and Wiggins as it was for Contador who all started near the end of the day's stage...so their performances show Contador was on a bad day at that TT 2010 (AC lost 1 minute 50 to Menchov who was off a few minutes in front of him) ..Contador did still put 30 seconds into Andy on a bad day so it shows Andy up badly. I would say Andy's time loss to Evans will look something like his time loss to Wiggins, Menchov at the 2010 final TT. Menchov lost 3 mins 50 in 52km, Wiggins lost 3.30 in 52 km. Vaughters reckoned Wiggo would have been 3rd in that TT without the wind. So, to see who will win the TDF...don't look at Schleks small 30 second loss to Contador last year in final TT..instead look at his time loss to Wiggins and Menchov. That is what cadel can comfort himself with. Andy is extremely vulnerable over 26 miles. I think Andy will be worried. Evans will win the TDF IMO
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKBacb2V ... ata_player
  • phreak
    phreak Posts: 2,953
    What time does the TT get under way?
  • mortozola
    mortozola Posts: 23
    What time (BST) do you think the last 5 will be coming over the line?

    Im at a wedding and am going to try and sneak out for 15 minutes but im not sure roughly what time they will be going for the line!
  • patchy
    patchy Posts: 779
    Heavy rain in Grenoble... as if there aren't enough variables already.
    point your handlebars towards the heavens and sweat like you're in hell
  • whitbags
    whitbags Posts: 878
    I was pretty ambivalent about watching this edition of Le Tour with Contador involved and seemingly likely to win at a canter, but how wrong was I?

    I have watched from start to finish, utterly enthralled, as has my 10 year old son. Stages 18 and 19 were superb, although I raised an eyebrow at Contador's miraculous turn of pace up Alpe d'Huez.

    Whoever designed the route for this year should be congratulated and feel extremely proud; to have the race undecided going into Stage 20, and that a final individual TT, is a work of art. Whoever wins, it is going to be a very exciting day indeed. I can hardly wait for the start. And we also have the excitment of a green jersey up for grabs tomorrow. Wow.
    Regards

    Whitbags.
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,821
    It's a case of who's going to be the least fooked, as Sean Kelly would say.

    And it will be close.

    Heart says Andy, head says Cadel.

    And we all remember the calculations everyone made in 2007, and what good they were. And 2008, and 2010.....

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