Attention Scots! What do you really want?

greg66_tri_v2.0

So, the SNP may take Holyrood. And if so, offer a vote on independence.

I'm puzzled. Do a majority of Scots really want independence? Or do they just want the SNP in charge more than anyone else? How crucial is the opportunity to vote for independence to the average SNP-voting Scot, I wonder?

I'm curious as to whether the real parallel is Quebec, where the Quebecois get in urging independence from Canada, offer up referenda, and lose them.

[as an aside, I note that without Scottish MPs, there would be 591 seats in Westminster, requiring 296 for a majority. Based on the non-Scottish seats at the last election, Con would have 306, Lab 217 and LD 46. Lab and LD right now stand to lose a lot of power in Westminster from Scottish independence, but curiously, I suspect it is the Tories who have the strongest "one nation" sentiments]

UndercoverElephant

Greg66 wrote:

So, the SNP may take Holyrood. And if so, offer a vote on independence.

I'm puzzled. Do a majority of Scots really want independence? Or do they just want the SNP in charge more than anyone else? How crucial is the opportunity to vote for independence to the average SNP-voting Scot, I wonder?

I'm curious as to whether the real parallel is Quebec, where the Quebecois get in urging independence from Canada, offer up referenda, and lose them.

[as an aside, I note that without Scottish MPs, there would be 591 seats in Westminster, requiring 296 for a majority. Based on the non-Scottish seats at the last election, Con would have 306, Lab 217 and LD 46. Lab and LD right now stand to lose a lot of power in Westminster from Scottish independence, but curiously, I suspect it is the Tories who have the strongest "one nation" sentiments]

See now, the problem is that the SNP will get in using FPTP, meaning that the majority didn't vote for them. If there was a referendum, it would be a straight yes or no, and if you were to imagine that all SNP voters would vote 'Yes' and most other voters would vote 'No', then it would be voted down.

I think the reason the SNP are doing so well is partly that Alex Salmond is a very charismatic leader and partly that Scotland will never vote Conservative, the Lib Dems are now tarred with the Conservative brush and Labour are very much still recovering from the last election.

I'm not a real Scot, but personally, I wouldn't mind independence, as long as we get to keep all the oil in our waters and so long as we don't have to put up with Scottish television.

suzyb

I don't want independence, I like being British. And feel whilst we would be able to stand on our own, why do so when we're stronger as part of Britain.

UndercoverElephant wrote:

...so long as we don't have to put up with Scottish television.

The biggest reason against independence

greg66_tri_v2.0

UndercoverElephant wrote:

I'm not a real Scot, but personally, I wouldn't mind independence, as long as we get to keep all the oil in our waters and so long as we don't have to put up with Scottish television.

I'm not sure independence would work like that.

You'd get to keep Scotland, out to the low tide mark. If you want anything more than that, raise your navy, and come get it.

But you don't have any ships, you say? Ah well... lesson learned. :twisted:

I suppose we'd have to move our subs down south before we cut the rope.

As for Scottish television, you're stuck with that. Independence ain't a car boot sale.

HamishD

suzyb wrote:

I don't want independence, I like being British. And feel whilst we would be able to stand on our own, why do so when we're stronger as part of Britain.

This.

Or , alternatively. . ..

RENTON: I hate being Scottish. We're the lowest of the fucking low, the scum of the earth, the most wretched, servile, miserable, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some people hate the English, but I don't. They're just wankers. We, on the other hand, are colonized by wankers. We can't even pick a decent culture to be colonized by. We are ruled by effete arseholes. It's a shite state of affairs and all the fresh air in the world will not make any fucking difference.

kurako

I think it's mainly a big f*ck you to the establishment parties. The Tories lost all their support under Thatcher and now the Lib Dems have lost all their support for getting in bed with the Tories. Add to that no-one really knows what Milliband is all about and he's slightly odd looking....

rick_chasey

Kurako wrote:

Add to that no-one really knows what Milliband is all about and he's slightly odd looking....

S'a bit rich coming from Scotland isn't it?

UndercoverElephant

I think I'm against independence in that case. If it's 24h, wall-to-wall River City, I don't know if I could stand it. Of course you'd never give up the oil either, so my point is moot. There should be a third way, of course, with greater devolvement, allowing us to set our own taxes and so on.

nation

(Scot living in Brum currently)

I was against Independence, but I'm wavering with policies of the current UK government.

England is getting a privatised healthcare system, its Higher Education system gutted, and has a government that apparently intends to sabotage UK ties to the EU.

I would rather live in an SNP-governed independent Scotland that's part of Europe than in a united Britain under the present administration, that stood apart. It remains to be seen whether the current government will survive another election cycle, though. We'll just have to see how much damage they can do until then.

davmaggs

I go up there now and again and one think I don't think is appreciated in England is the level of nationalism there is in Scotland. Even food in the supermarket is marked with the flag.

There is also a sort of obsession with England and I suspect with the localised media and now the parliament a very mild siege mentality that seems to be building over the years. What amazes them in discussions is when you tell them that England just doesn't think about Scotland, it just doesn't come up in the average person's political discussions (barr NHS/Uni fees comparisons) so we aren't in on some scheme to do them down. In a way it is more insulting to say that we just don't care about them.

There is also a very significant learn towards the left a view that the state should run things that seems much more pronunced than in southern England so Westminster policies go down badly. It seems very ingrained even in people that aren't overtly political despite Scotland's former history of industrial entrepreneurship.

I suspect that the SNP know that they'll lose a referendum so they'll keep on playing the victim card and try and avoid it.

Confusedboy

Greg66 wrote:

UndercoverElephant wrote:

I'm not a real Scot, but personally, I wouldn't mind independence, as long as we get to keep all the oil in our waters and so long as we don't have to put up with Scottish television.

I'm not sure independence would work like that.

You'd get to keep Scotland, out to the low tide mark. If you want anything more than that, raise your navy, and come get it.

But you don't have any ships, you say? Ah well... lesson learned. :twisted:

I suppose we'd have to move our subs down south before we cut the rope.

As for Scottish television, you're stuck with that. Independence ain't a car boot sale.

They might not have any ships, but they do have shipyards....

notsoblue

davmaggs wrote:

There is also a very significant learn towards the left a view that the state should run things that seems much more pronunced than in southern England so Westminster policies go down badly. It seems very ingrained even in people that aren't overtly political despite Scotland's former history of industrial entrepreneurship.

Despite? Surely you mean because of Scotland's industrial past.

cee

everyone i have spoken to....who has swung from either lab or lib...to the snp for this vote.....says the same thing...

Labour are the big incumbents...have been for a long time....and they havn't delivered what they promised...

Lib got their shot at the last General....and didn't/couldn't deliver their promises...pandered to the tories (always a bad move in scotland...) and even turned wholesale on some of their promises and delivered the opposite...

Tories votes havn't changed that much...

SNP havn't really promised anything that they have had to deliver....so although haven't delivered....haven't failed in delivering either....

It looks like this one is in the bag for them....so i expect them to fail on some of the promises (no cuts in spending, no extra generation of revenue through personal tax etc....) and it will come out in the wash over the next year....

basically...its a big fuh-q to lib/lab and even those who are for independence, or more accurately...just want to be asked the question, whether they are for or against.....voted for snp, but as soon as the question is asked will not vote for them again.

the swing stats are interesting...it looks like the majority of SNP+ are Lib-

I think the majority of scots are not only happy in the union....but oppose independence...

lets face it...its not an emphatic win for SNP...the political field was configured in a way that would be embarrasing if they had lost.

cee

Oh...and to answer the Original Question:

Attention Scots! What do you really want?

jetpacks.

nation

It's important to note that a vote for the SNP is not (necessarily) a vote for independence.

A lot of it is that there aren't any other mainstream left-wing parties since Labour jumped on the PFI gravy train, and the Lib Dems have managed to contaminate themselves with the Tory affiliation.

The Rookie

While I believe in the Union, if the Scots are going to vote SNP we in the rest of the union need to point out the downsides, so equalisation of public spending on current population levels (not those from 30 odd years ago) and no votes by Scots MP's on non Scots issues (what started tuition fees lest you forget) would make a good start.....oh and we'll have the money back plowed into Scottish banks as well thanks.....

Agree with cee, the SNP promise nothing (except 'trying' to get independance) so haven't yet failed to achieve their promises, now they have to live or die by their own sword!

Simon

nation

The only Scottish Bank that got money is RBS, and the (UK) government still owns the shares. It just needs to sell them to get the money back if it wants it (not that it could in practice, as doing so would immediately collapse the share price).

Bank of Scotland was part of HBOS, now part of Lloyds.

greg66_tri_v2.0

nation wrote:

The only Scottish Bank that got money is RBS, and the (UK) government still owns the shares. It just needs to sell them to get the money back if it wants it (not that it could in practice, as doing so would immediately collapse the share price).

Bank of Scotland was part of HBOS, now part of Lloyds.

HMG owns a large chunk of Lloyds though, so indirectly owns BoS and directly owns RBS.

So, if the Scots became independent, their two major banks would be owned by a foreign Gov.

I predict a Mugabe-esque expropriation without compo...

greg66_tri_v2.0

nation wrote:

It's important to note that a vote for the SNP is not (necessarily) a vote for independence.

That's what I'm trying to understand - whether the ascendancy of the SNP is because it wants independence, or despite it wanting independence. cee seems to think it is the latter.

As for jetpacks, we *all* want jetpacks. Get in line!

nation

Greg66 wrote:

nation wrote:

It's important to note that a vote for the SNP is not (necessarily) a vote for independence.

That's what I'm trying to understand - whether the ascendancy of the SNP is because it wants independence, or despite it wanting independence. cee seems to think it is the latter.

A few years ago you would have found plenty of people that would have happily voted SNP on the basis of their policies were it not for the independence question.

There used to be a general perception that you only voted SNP if you wanted independence, and I don't think that's the case anymore. I've always been a Lib Dem but I would have voted SNP this time around.

I don't think there's a huge amount of momentum behind the independence movement at the moment, but that might change as England and Scotland move in very different political directions. My perception is that England seems to be moving in direction that makes it more similar to the likes of the US, whereas Scotland seems to be shifting in the direction of the Nordic countries.

tailwindhome

A zig a zig ah!

davmaggs

notsoblue wrote:

davmaggs wrote:

There is also a very significant learn towards the left a view that the state should run things that seems much more pronunced than in southern England so Westminster policies go down badly. It seems very ingrained even in people that aren't overtly political despite Scotland's former history of industrial entrepreneurship.

Despite? Surely you mean because of Scotland's industrial past.

I see what you mean, but I was thinking before the growth of the union movement / state involvement. All those shipwards, finance houses and manufacturers were founded independently and were huge world-wide players. Scotland also sent all sorts of people world-wide (Carnegie etc) that had an impact beyond the size of the country, but now the trend seems to be the 'government' should do something or a subsidy must be provided.

jonginge

TailWindHome wrote:

A zig a zig ah!

I thought that, too

wgwarburton

Greg66 wrote:

nation wrote:

It's important to note that a vote for the SNP is not (necessarily) a vote for independence.

That's what I'm trying to understand - whether the ascendancy of the SNP is because it wants independence, or despite it wanting independence. ...

In my view it's both. the reason why they have done so well this time round is that they have garnered support from both of those camps. There seems to be a great deal of disillusionment with the three major parties.

As to whether a majority of Scots want independence... My impression is not. There may, however, be a majority of Scots who want a referendum on independence.

Alex Salmond is a very canny political operator and has played the hands dealt him over the last few years very well indeed... He's now been dealt a much stronger hand than he's had before and the question is, can he win the pot with it, or will the other players manage to get together and shut him out of the game...?
Interesting times, indeed...

Cheers,
W.

PS In my view, the SNP probably can't "win" Scotland from Westminster... It is possible, however, that Westminster can "lose" Scotland... Much of the SNP's support is grounded in resentment against Westminster and it's perceived indifference to Scottish issues. If that perception is not addressed then independence may be carried by the passion and conviction of its supporters being pitched against an uninspiring and weak pro-union campaign, fatally linked to the poisonous "Tory" brand.

mitchell_inman

I think Alec Salmond is faced with an interesting dilemma.

I don't think there's a cat in hell's chance of us voting for independence, and the SNP know it.

So, do you have a referendum, knowing that you'll lose and end up a busted flush? Or, do you get on with governing the country and put up with opposition taunting you about not having a referendum?

daviesee

The SNP have been voted in here due to the failure of the other parties in Westminster.

Basically, the Conservatives blew it in the 80's, Labour blew it around the turn of the century and the Libs blew it with the pact. SNP win by default, regardless of independance.

Re the independance vote, I suspect it would be fairly close and would probably depend on turn out as much as anything. On a personal note, I would vote depending on the strength of Westminster v Europe. If Europe is going to take more control and Westminster just be a middle man then I would rather be represented by Hollyrood. If Westminster can show some b@ll$ then united we stand.

sketchley

Freedom?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLrrBs8JBQo

slunker

As billy Connelly says "don't vote it only encourages them"

SNP are in because they are the best of a bad lot........

The Rookie

Scotland has an inherently more socialist outlook than the rest of the union (correlation with the increased number on benefits?) so the Tories will always fair worse there than south of the border, combine that with the smaller (average number of voters per) constituencuies and they will always suffer at the hands of Scottish voters, although the %age of votes they get is nowhere near reflected in the number of seats they get.

Simon

Full Merckx

WGWarburton wrote:

Greg66 wrote:

nation wrote:

It's important to note that a vote for the SNP is not (necessarily) a vote for independence.

That's what I'm trying to understand - whether the ascendancy of the SNP is because it wants independence, or despite it wanting independence. ...

In my view it's both. the reason why they have done so well this time round is that they have garnered support from both of those camps. There seems to be a great deal of disillusionment with the three major parties.

As to whether a majority of Scots want independence... My impression is not. There may, however, be a majority of Scots who want a referendum on independence.

Alex Salmond is a very canny political operator and has played the hands dealt him over the last few years very well indeed... He's now been dealt a much stronger hand than he's had before and the question is, can he win the pot with it, or will the other players manage to get together and shut him out of the game...?
Interesting times, indeed...

Cheers,
W.

PS In my view, the SNP probably can't "win" Scotland from Westminster... It is possible, however, that Westminster can "lose" Scotland... Much of the SNP's support is grounded in resentment against Westminster and it's perceived indifference to Scottish issues. If that perception is not addressed then independence may be carried by the passion and conviction of its supporters being pitched against an uninspiring and weak pro-union campaign, fatally linked to the poisonous "Tory" brand.

Good post.

As a Scot living in Scotland I'm pretty sure there isn't an overwhelming desire for independence. SNP offers something the English don't have which is an alternative to Labour and the Conservative/LibDem pact. Alex (aka Jabba the Hut) plays the scottish psyche brilliantly appealing to perceived injustices generally perpetrated by our southern neighbours. We are a different country form the South, perhaps our dependence on state support stems from the very scale of our previous industrial strength when you left school and worked on the yards or the mines until you retired as did you kids with the yards serving the role the state currently does ? I don't know

I think I'm with Renton, lets sort ourselves out but for me that would be as part of the union

sketchley

General Election Results in Scotland

LAB 42.0%
SNP 19.9%
LD 18.9%
CON 16.7%

Reasonably fair to assume that if Scotland gained independence it would be left wing for some time.

Result In England was

CON 39.6%
LAB 28.1%
LD 24.2%
UKIP 3.5%

I think this would mean much more likely that rest of UK staying right wing for some time if Scotland gain independence.