World Road Race Championships 2011

takethehighroad
takethehighroad Posts: 6,821
edited February 2011 in Pro race
Having just finished listening to the latest Real Peloton podcast with SwiftyBSwift and @DeanDowning and they were talking about the World Championships in Copenhagen,

A few points to discuss really.

1. What is the likelihood of Cav winning if we don't have 9 riders?
2. What is the likelihood of getting 9 riders in?
3. Who will be the main challengers and why?

I think Team Sky will be the key to Cav winning the title, as they're the team that can get riders to win points from races to get 9 riders for GB, if that makes any kind of convaluted sense
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Comments

  • Tusher
    Tusher Posts: 2,762
    It was a good podcast, wasn't it?
    And 100% better than the previous one.

    1. Reasonable if they get 6 riders
    2.Dunno. But at the moment, it looks good.
    3. Farrar, Hushovd, Pettachi

    Agree that Team Sky will be crucial to Cav's success, and they'll pull out all the stops for him.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    1. It'll be difficult, but not impossible. Norway only had three last year. But then Hushovd brings a different dynamic than Cav. With 9 riders, GB can put together as good a sprinter's team as any other nation (Oz also very good).

    2. Pretty good I'd say. Swift has got us off to a cracking start. I think about 450 points will be enough to get in the top ten (only top five riders count). Italy, Spain, Belgium and Australia are virtually guaranteed to be in the top ten. Beyond that, there's maybe 12 nations which could get in the top 10 (most are reliant on one or two big stars).

    3. Any experienced half-decent sprinter or someone with a lot of power (I think the finish it uphill a bit)

    PS You're getting your Downings confused.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • pedro118118
    pedro118118 Posts: 1,102
    Would imagine Sky are keen to put Cav in the Rainboy Jersey, given the likelihood of him switching teams for 2012 - his contract is up at the end of this season isn't it?

    If he's in decent shape and has strong support, then his chances are good. Not seen the route in detail, but gather it's flat and well-suited to a pure sprinter.

    Competition likely to come from the usual suspects isn't it - Greipel, Freire, Farrar, Hushovd, Pettachi, Boonen etc.
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,821
    RichN95 wrote:
    PS You're getting your Downings confused.

    Cheers, changed it now.

    It's a good point that Sky could say to Cav, "We'll help you win the Worlds if you join us in 2012"
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    You can see the profile here:

    http://www.copenhagen2011.dk/docs/elementer/20101104-1419-57.jpg

    A kick up at the end, but nothing that a top sprinter can't handle.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    TakeTheHighRoad wrote:
    It's a good point that Sky could say to Cav, "We'll help you win the Worlds if you join us in 2012"

    I think they will anyway. Most of them (Thomas, Swift, Wiggins, Kennaugh, Millar etc) are his mates.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • iainf72
    iainf72 Posts: 15,784
    TakeTheHighRoad wrote:

    It's a good point that Sky could say to Cav, "We'll help you win the Worlds if you join us in 2012"

    I would expect many people would be outraged if that happened. If he didn't agree with it, would they not ride for him?

    I believe Cavendish did the right thing in terms of getting support from the GB team at the worlds last year.
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    iainf72 wrote:
    I believe Cavendish did the right thing in terms of getting support from the GB team at the worlds last year.

    What did he do?
    _
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,549
    Paid them.
  • inkyfingers
    inkyfingers Posts: 4,400
    As others have said, Sky hold the key to how many riders we get for the worlds. Barring injury, Cav will surely score a hatful of points himself, then you need Wiggns to do well in the tour or other top stage races (like he did in 2009) and Swift, Thomas and maybe Downing to pick up some good stage wins along the way.

    If we do get at least 6 riders then I think Cav has an excellent chance of winning the WC. If he can win MSR then he can win on a flattish worlds course. Having full 9 riders would give him an even better chance as you'd then have the option to throw guys like Downing into the breaks and still have a solid lead out train (Thomas, Millar, Swift...) left for a lead out if it all comes back together.

    Of course it often doesn't pan out like that, a crash, bad weather or even some guys going hard on a small climb near the end can blow your best laid plans out of the water. Then again if it was easy to win it wouldn't be held in such high regard!
    "I have a lovely photo of a Camargue horse but will not post it now" (Frenchfighter - July 2013)
  • FJS
    FJS Posts: 4,820
    1. I don't think 9 are necessary - all major nations will make a sprinter team leader, and ride for him. 6 would be useful though.

    2. I think 9 are difficult - Spain, Italy, Belgium and Australia are pretty much guaranteed, and Luxembourg will probably take a top-10 place. Leaves 5 places, with US, Netherlands, Germany, Russia, Switzerland, Kazachstan, France, Ireland and Slovakia with I reckon at least as much chance as GB. Cav got 198 points last year - to get 9 a British rider would probably need to win a classic, a 1-week protour tour's GC overall, or top-5 in a Grand Tour. Not sure that's going to happen. And there's a serious risk of ending up with 3 again - last year GB was 24th in the Europe tour! Consequence of hardlly having any domestic UCi races.

    3. probably the usual sprintng suspects, although worlds are always tricky, and the lap seems much twistier and more technical than Zolder for instance.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    FJS wrote:
    3. probably the usual sprintng suspects, although worlds are always tricky, and the lap seems much twistier and more technical than Zolder for instance.

    Farrarrrrrr then?

    He's good when it's twisty and technical.
    _
  • inkyfingers
    inkyfingers Posts: 4,400
    FJS wrote:
    1. I don't think 9 are necessary - all major nations will make a sprinter team leader, and ride for him. 6 would be useful though.

    2. I think 9 are difficult - Spain, Italy, Belgium and Australia are pretty much guaranteed, and Luxembourg will probably take a top-10 place. Leaves 5 places, with US, Netherlands, Germany, Russia, Switzerland, Kazachstan, France, Ireland and Slovakia with I reckon at least as much chance as GB. Cav got 198 points last year - to get 9 a British rider would probably need to win a classic, a 1-week protour tour's GC overall, or top-5 in a Grand Tour. Not sure that's going to happen. And there's a serious risk of ending up with 3 again - last year GB was 24th in the Europe tour! Consequence of hardlly having any domestic UCi races.

    I think GB had 9 in 2009 when Cav won MSR and Wiggins was 4th in the tour, so it's far from impossible, especially with other emerging talents like Swift and Thomas getting some good results. Plus David Millar of course, who seemed back to his best last year so could add some useful points.
    "I have a lovely photo of a Camargue horse but will not post it now" (Frenchfighter - July 2013)
  • FJS
    FJS Posts: 4,820
    inkyfingers wrote:
    I think GB had 9 in 2009 when Cav won MSR and Wiggins was 4th in the tour, so it's far from impossible, especially with other emerging talents like Swift and Thomas getting some good results. Plus David Millar of course, who seemed back to his best last year so could add some useful points.
    I'm not saying it's impossible, just that a year like last with Protour points mostly based on Cav's stage wins won't be enough. The problem is that the points are only gained in the World Tour, with big bonuses for top-3 performances in the biggest races. Yes, Swifty, Thomas, Blyth, Downing are improving, but so are Gesink and Mollema, Sagan and Velits, Roche and Martin, Fuglsang and Breschel, Farrar and Van Garderen, Greipel and Martin, etc etc.
    Whether Wiggins can repeat his 2009 TdF performance? Who knows,but my guess it's not something Cav would want to rely on... and if Wiggins won't be able to repeat a big point-scoring year, someone else will need to improve massively compared to last year. Perhaps it's down to Cav himself, and a better early season - Milan San Remo and Gent-Wevelgem would help....
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Cavendish can rely on plenty of HTC support....
    _
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,549
    That depends if he's staying with them.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    andyp wrote:
    That depends if he's staying with them.

    I don't know why everyone's so hot on Cavendish going to sky?

    Why would he?

    HTC is a stronger, better team, with better management and better riders.

    He knows that for a sprinter nowadays that matters an awful lot.

    Just take a look at Ciolek.
    _
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,549
    You mentioned Sky, not me. His contract is up at the end of the year and a lot of teams will be interested.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    I can't see him gonig anywhere any time soon.
    _
  • inkyfingers
    inkyfingers Posts: 4,400
    Barring HTC having a major change in tactics or personell, Cav would be mad to move anywhere else.
    "I have a lovely photo of a Camargue horse but will not post it now" (Frenchfighter - July 2013)
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    inkyfingers wrote:
    Barring HTC having a major change in tactics or personell, Cav would be mad to move anywhere else.

    .....or a big change in money.

    Personally, I think he'll stay put though.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,549
    I'm not sure if he'll move or not, but I don't think for one minute that HTC hold all the aces.

    A good sprint train is relatively easy to put together, especially when the riders that make it up know their work is likely to be rewarded.

    Most sponsors want coverage at the Tour and Cavendish provides that in spades, without any of the expense (or risks) that a GC rider comes with.
  • Tusher
    Tusher Posts: 2,762
    andyp wrote:
    Paid them.



    How much? What's the going rate?
    Did he buy them a cappuccino at the end, or did he hand over a largish cheque?
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,549
    I think it's negotiable and partly dependent on what sort of bonus is due to the rider seeking assistance should he win.

    Have you read Peiper's book, Tusher? He describes how the leadership of the Australian team was decided at the 1988 Worlds in Ronse.
  • iainf72
    iainf72 Posts: 15,784
    You wouldn't have wanted to fly to Oz cattle class and I think Cav sorted that out for the boys.
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • Tusher
    Tusher Posts: 2,762
    You're both absolute libraries of information :)
  • ozzzyosborn206
    ozzzyosborn206 Posts: 1,340
    Tusher wrote:
    andyp wrote:
    Paid them.



    How much? What's the going rate?
    Did he buy them a cappuccino at the end, or did he hand over a largish cheque?

    i think his HTC team mates have quite a few very bling TAG watches to show for their lead out efforts? I wonder if Blyth will get a ride in the worlds team maybe not being at sky may make it harder for him? but i think he could be the best guy to do Renshaw's job or maybe e the backup sprinter in case something happens to Cav
  • Tusher
    Tusher Posts: 2,762
    Yes, I'd read about his generosity to his team-mates, which apparently extends beyond the expected sharing of prize money.

    And yes, I would like to see Blythe in the team.
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,821
    So what are we thinking?

    Cav, Swift, Blythe, Thomas, Wiggins, Millar, Downing (R), Downing (D), Stannard

    In reverse order of lead out?
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    TakeTheHighRoad wrote:
    So what are we thinking?

    Cav, Swift, Blythe, Thomas, Wiggins, Millar, Downing (R), Downing (D), Stannard

    In reverse order of lead out?

    Downing (D)? Ahead of the likes of Hammond, Lloyd, Hunt or Cummings? Madness!
    Twitter: @RichN95

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