Your WC RR tactical assessments and predictions

frenchfighter

Gilbert is total class.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/philipp ... -at-worlds

ozzzyosborn206

i think fab just enough to win, i think he could have gone harder in the tt if he had needed, to save himself and also not show how well he is going, i think the group will get whittled down then with people watching each other he will attack get 15 meters then will be gone

LangerDan

Problem is that the Swiss team isn't exactly an embarassment of riches. Fab might find himself having to do a little more work than the other team leaders. That, combined with his efforts in the TT and simply being marked out of it are going to make it a difficult finish for him.

LangerDan

Problem is that the Swiss team isn't exactly an embarassment of riches. Fab might find himself having to do a little more work than the other team leaders. That, combined with his efforts in the TT and simply being marked out of it are going to make it a difficult finish for him.

rick_chasey

Langer - having a small team in the worlds just means you just have to gamble a little more.

Ultimately, if a good enough selection is made, and that's a big if, he'll be in with a big shout.

Personally I'm gutted Boonen's not riding this. Really gutted.

clanton

If it doesn'tt come down to the bunch sprint then the winner will probably be someone who can climb AND then stay away - someone with a decent TT but also quick up a climb. So I think Cuddles is a good bet.

frenchfighter

http://www.pavepavepave.com/2010/09/30/ ... y-numbers/

dcj

all things being equal between nations, mark cavendish would win but for this race he can't call on 8 HTC columbia team mates working to keep it together for 160miles.

the bigger teams don't seem have their very best sprinters, so their tactics from the start will reflect a bunch sprint avoidance strategy.

at the very least, if mark is still in contention on the last lap, by definition he is going to be in a large group and they will make him chase everything. as the fastest sprint specialist there is no way the other nations are going to deliver him to the last km on his terms.

it would be completely different if mark was italian, belgian or australian.

durhamwasp

Either Cancellara gets going after the final climb and powers to the win

or its a sprint finish, and my bet is on Thor.

dcj

Problem is that the Swiss team isn't exactly an embarassment of riches. Fab might find himself having to do a little more work than the other team leaders. That, combined with his efforts in the TT and simply being marked out of it are going to make it a difficult finish for him.

+1

added to the fact that during the TDF rider go slow cancellara didn't exactly make new friends in the bunch either :roll:

FJS

dcj wrote:

it would be completely different if mark was italian, belgian or australian.

You mean like Petacchi, Weylandt and McEwen?

dcj

dcj wrote:

it would be completely different if mark was italian, belgian or australian.

You mean like Petacchi, Weylandt and McEwen?

i assume the implication is that a nine man british team would also have left out sprinters, to make my POV invalid

the other countries with nine riders have decided to dictate tactics to avoid a bunch sprint they think mark cavendish would probably win.
they seem to be saying there is no point in bringing their best sprinter if someone elses best sprinter is more or less 100% guaranteed to beat him.

however, if mark was say Italian, then because he able to get the job done, i believe they would do everything to make it finish in a sprint, and with 9 men it would be likely to happen, eg cippolini 2002 :idea:

FJS

dcj wrote:

the other countries with nine riders have decided to dictate tactics to avoid a bunch sprint they think mark cavendish would probably win.
they seem to be saying there is no point in bringing their best sprinter if someone elses best sprinter is more or less 100% guaranteed to beat him

I sincerely doubt that; they selected those they did because they consider the route too hard for a sprinter like Pettachi, McEwen or Cavendish. Next year they'll all select their best sprinters on a truly (almost) flat Copenhagen lap

iainf72

FJS wrote:

I sincerely doubt that; they selected those they did because they consider the route too hard for a sprinter like Pettachi, McEwen or Cavendish. Next year they'll all select their best sprinters on a truly (almost) flat Copenhagen lap

Someone pointed out to me next year a team will be absolutely critical as the race is going to be nearly 300km to make up for the lack of hills.

RichN95.

FJS wrote:

dcj wrote:

it would be completely different if mark was italian, belgian or australian.

You mean like Petacchi, Weylandt and McEwen?

If Cavendish were Belgian, Italian or Aussie, they would have picked him no, doubt. In a bunch sprint Cavendish will win 60+% of the time when on form. Petacchi maybe 15%, McEwen 3%, Weylandt 1%. Petacchi and McEwen can't outclimb Cavendish and are unlikely to outsprint him - so they offer a low chance of success. So the teams have chosen to go a different direction.

FJS

RichN95 wrote:

FJS wrote:

dcj wrote:

it would be completely different if mark was italian, belgian or australian.

You mean like Petacchi, Weylandt and McEwen?

If Cavendish were Belgian, Italian or Aussie, they would have picked him no, doubt. In a bunch sprint Cavendish will win 60+% of the time when on form. Petacchi maybe 15%, McEwen 3%, Weylandt 1%. Petacchi and McEwen can't outclimb Cavendish and are unlikely to outsprint him - so they offer a low chance of success. So the teams have chosen to go a different direction.

Not sure. Perhaps, in the same way the Belgians took Boonen to Mendrisio last year, even though that was way too tough a parcours for him. On the other hand, the Italians rarely took Cipollini to the Worlds, even in the years he was as dominant as Cavendish is now. I agree that on this parcours they probably all would have taken Cavendish. But that wouldn't suddenly have made him top favorite or even guaranteed winner, like dcj suggests.

Kléber

The U-23 riders did 10 laps... the pros are doing 11. I hadn't realised they were doing so few laps. So only one more time up the climb, all because they're starting in Melbourne and doing the 80km ride out to the circuit in Geelong.

So, relatively, the race is actually easier for the pros and if the hill is hard, the potential for damage is a bit reduced.

Now I have to decide who to pick... :twisted:

RichN95.

FJS wrote:

Not sure. Perhaps, in the same way the Belgians took Boonen to Mendrisio last year, even though that was way too tough a parcours for him. On the other hand, the Italians rarely took Cipollini to the Worlds, even in the years he was as dominant as Cavendish is now. I agree that on this parcours they probably all would have taken Cavendish. But that wouldn't suddenly have made him top favorite or even guaranteed winner, like dcj suggests.

The Belgians take Boonen, if he wants to go, because he's Boonen. He's their superstar. If he's not picked, even if justifiable, then the Belgian press are going to complain like mad if they don't win. It's just easier to pick him and avoid asking awkward questions.

rick_chasey

RichN95 wrote:

FJS wrote:

Not sure. Perhaps, in the same way the Belgians took Boonen to Mendrisio last year, even though that was way too tough a parcours for him. On the other hand, the Italians rarely took Cipollini to the Worlds, even in the years he was as dominant as Cavendish is now. I agree that on this parcours they probably all would have taken Cavendish. But that wouldn't suddenly have made him top favorite or even guaranteed winner, like dcj suggests.

The Belgians take Boonen, if he wants to go, because he's Boonen. He's their superstar. If he's not picked, even if justifiable, then the Belgian press are going to complain like mad if they don't win. It's just easier to pick him and avoid asking awkward questions.

Boonen was pretty handy in last years' break.

This is a course that would really suit Boonen.

dcj

...so with hindsight after the race, here is a brief summary:

in the end the course was hard, but clearly not hard enough to justify the effort expended in order to prevent a bunch sprint.

personally i think thor benefitted enormously from the failed tactics of the major nations, and good luck to him.

anyone on the forum who thinks the belgian and italian press will be sparing in criticism of their own teams in tomorrows papers?

andyp

Some criticism of the Italians is justified, but I can't see what more the Belgians could have done tactically as they don't have a decent sprinter in the absence of Boonen.

FJS

The Belgian, well Flemish, analyses immediately afterwards was that they didn't make major tactical mistakes, that Gilbert might have gotten a medal if he had done nothing all day but not beat Hushovd in the sprint, and that this would have been an ideal parcours for a fit Boonen

dcj

quote from leukemans...

In the final lap, on the last climb, Philippe would have been better off waiting to attack. But it's no use crying over spilt milk. We came to win. We did not win, but we can be proud of the race we rode.”

Moomaloid

Moomaloid wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

edhornby wrote:

I can see it being the other way round this year... Spartacus for the double ?

'tis my prediction.

mine too! He should've nailed it last year and i don't think he wants to let it go again. However i've also got a sneaky feeling about Thor...

Typical!!

durhamwasp

durhamwasp wrote:

Either Cancellara gets going after the final climb and powers to the win

or its a sprint finish, and my bet is on Thor.

and thats the first bet ive ever won! Well done Thor!

rick_chasey

Moomaloid wrote:

Moomaloid wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

edhornby wrote:

I can see it being the other way round this year... Spartacus for the double ?

'tis my prediction.

mine too! He should've nailed it last year and i don't think he wants to let it go again. However i've also got a sneaky feeling about Thor...

Typical!!

Shows how much I know...

Bronzie

frenchfighter wrote:

http://www.pavepavepave.com/2010/09/30/world-champ-by-numbers/

Should have done the math - it was all there in the numbers.