Your WC RR tactical assessments and predictions

RichN95.
RichN95. Posts: 27,253
edited October 2010 in Pro race
This seems to be a course of mystery. No-one seems to know what sort of race it will be.

Most of us have made our PTP picks, but how do you think it will work out tactically, and what sort of finish will it be.

Now, personally, I see the course as the finishing circuit as the same as GP Montreal, but not quite as tough (more flat bits). So it'll turn out similar, but with less hope for a 'Gesink'

I think the usual no-hoper breaks will go away. In two phases - no-hoper countries early, and once they're caught some proper pros in a second break. These guys will still be out there on the last but two lap, when the peloton ratch it up a little on the climb, to see who is struggling. Penultimate lap - break caught - big tempo on the climb from the Belgians/Italians to thin things out.
Final klap - attacks on the steep climb, getting maybe six riders away, but not by much. Enough teams left to chase them down on the wide roads. 30-40 arrive in a bunch at the finish. A known sprinter wins. But who?

Women's Road Race prediction: Pooley attacks on the penultimate lap (big climb) and rides away with it. I haven't picked her for PTP though.
Twitter: @RichN95
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Comments

  • Pokerface
    Pokerface Posts: 7,960
    Your first scenario pretty much described the Montreal and Quebec races. But I don't think you;re wrong about how the World's will go.

    As for the women's race - Pooley will attack early on and try and stay away. She's done it before with great success. In Montreal if I'm not mistaken.
  • FJS
    FJS Posts: 4,820
    If the Italians especially but also Belgians, Australians, Russians, and Spanish want to win they'll have to start making the race hard much much earlier than the penultimate lap... It might be different than normally
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,655
    The climbs are short but steep (the shorter topped out at 22%, which is nasty), but the descents are wide and straight. It'll take a special rider to break on one of the climbs and stay away.

    The finish is also on a long uphill drag, not massively steep, but perhaps enough after 11 circuits of lactic acid to sap the power from the sprinters.

    If it's won by a breakaway then it'll be by a rider that can blast up a short climb and round it off with some serious TTing ability. I'm not up to date on who that might be, other than maybe Cancellera.

    I imagine that any decent sized team with a sprinter and a decent breakaway rider will try and put the breakaway out on the 2nd last climb. If he stays away, fine, if not then they'll have stayed fresh to put their sprinter at the front for the finish.

    Don't ask me though, I've only been watching cycling again for six months....
    Warning No formatter is installed for the format
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    It'll be the usual worlds affair.

    Heat up with 2 laps to go. Selection occurs throughout that final 2 laps - final lap is a fast moving/changing state of affairs.
    _
  • iainf72
    iainf72 Posts: 15,784
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    It'll be the usual worlds affair.

    Heat up with 2 laps to go. Selection occurs throughout that final 2 laps - final lap is a fast moving/changing state of affairs.

    I would sort of agree but I think some of the stronger team might want to bin out certain people a bit earlier (Hello Mr Cavendish), so perhaps they'll crank it a bit earlier.
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    FJS wrote:
    If the Italians especially but also Belgians, Australians, Russians, and Spanish want to win they'll have to start making the race hard much much earlier than the penultimate lap... It might be different than normally

    Spanish will want to keep it easy for Freire surely?

    Cavendish etc won't make it to the finish with the lead guys.


    I can see the Belgians chucking in a few good one-dayers in the break and playing chicken with the Aussies and Italians.

    But I can't see any proper team ripping it up before 2 laps to go.

    They didn't last year and it was still very selective.
    _
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,549
    How quickly people forget Varese.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    andyp wrote:
    How quickly people forget Varese.


    ?
    _
  • FJS
    FJS Posts: 4,820
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    andyp wrote:
    How quickly people forget Varese.


    ?
    Large group away - all major nations present - game over for pre-race favorites
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,549
    Exactly.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    I guess so - I think there are enough teams who want to keep it together for that not to happen.

    Freire is one who is very happy to gamble that it'll come back together.
    _
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    (how was Ballan not a favourite btw?)
    _
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,549
    It'll be interesting to see how the Aussie team handles the pressure and responsibility that comes from being the host nation. They, along with the Italians, don't have a top rank sprinter in their team so need to make it a selective race.
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,549
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    (how was Ballan not a favourite btw?)

    It was Bettini's final race so all the pre-race attention was focused on him. Which left the likes of Ballan, Rebellin and Cunego with lower profiles than you'd expect.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    andyp wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    (how was Ballan not a favourite btw?)

    It was Bettini's final race so all the pre-race attention was focused on him. Which left the likes of Ballan, Rebellin and Cunego with lower profiles than you'd expect.

    Pfft...

    You know what they say:

    If you can win De Ronde, you can win the Worlds...
    _
  • FJS
    FJS Posts: 4,820
    andyp wrote:
    Exactly.
    There's a lot of teams it would suit very well this year.... and even the Belgians would want someone with some status in there to avoid having to do all the work...
  • stagehopper
    stagehopper Posts: 1,593
    Pokerface wrote:
    Your first scenario pretty much described the Montreal and Quebec races. But I don't think you;re wrong about how the World's will go.

    As for the women's race - Pooley will attack early on and try and stay away. She's done it before with great success. In Montreal if I'm not mistaken.

    She doesn't even need to attack early these days - witness her win in the GB Road Race and this win in Women's World Cup at Plouay:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XH9FJH0GZB8
    @stagehopper
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    It'll be a grinding down process with the big names making moves towards the end, much like last year. Hence my PTP pick of Cuddles.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    FJS wrote:
    andyp wrote:
    Exactly.
    There's a lot of teams it would suit very well this year.... and even the Belgians would want someone with some status in there to avoid having to do all the work...

    Like Boonen did last year!
    _
  • edhornby
    edhornby Posts: 1,780
    A happy as I was for Cuddles last year. I can't see him doing it again as he'll be more closely watched, also the Italian tactic of 'stop fabien' helped him get away

    I can see it being the other way round this year... Spartacus for the double ?
    "I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, how good is that"
    --Jens Voight
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edhornby wrote:
    I can see it being the other way round this year... Spartacus for the double ?

    'tis my prediction.
    _
  • LangerDan
    LangerDan Posts: 6,132
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    edhornby wrote:
    I can see it being the other way round this year... Spartacus for the double ?

    'tis my prediction.

    He is looking very lean - and finished the TT in far better shape than many of his rivals.

    (Just as long as he has remembered to bring the Swiss / /Australia travel adapter for the battery charger)
    'This week I 'ave been mostly been climbing like Basso - Shirley Basso.'
  • frenchfighter
    frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    Whatever happens I hope it is attritional. One of my favourite qualities for a race yet which rarely happens as it often isn't the best tactic. One reason Roubaix is great. Can't remember which is was but read that Hinault put the hurt on each time up a climb for 10 laps or something and whittled away a few more each time.
    Contador is the Greatest
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    frenchfighter wrote:
    Whatever happens I hope it is attritional. One of my favourite qualities for a race yet which rarely happens as it often isn't the best tactic. One reason Roubaix is great. Can't remember which is was but read that Hinault put the hurt on each time up a climb for 10 laps or something and whittled away a few more each time.

    Shaking the tree it's called...

    to see who falls out.
    _
  • pb21
    pb21 Posts: 2,171
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    frenchfighter wrote:
    Whatever happens I hope it is attritional. One of my favourite qualities for a race yet which rarely happens as it often isn't the best tactic. One reason Roubaix is great. Can't remember which is was but read that Hinault put the hurt on each time up a climb for 10 laps or something and whittled away a few more each time.

    Shaking the tree it's called...

    to see who falls out.

    Paris-Roubaix ‘09 was a classic example of this., except riders were falling off.
    Mañana
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    pb21 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    frenchfighter wrote:
    Whatever happens I hope it is attritional. One of my favourite qualities for a race yet which rarely happens as it often isn't the best tactic. One reason Roubaix is great. Can't remember which is was but read that Hinault put the hurt on each time up a climb for 10 laps or something and whittled away a few more each time.

    Shaking the tree it's called...

    to see who falls out.

    Paris-Roubaix ‘09 was a classic example of this., except riders were falling off.

    Sure, but even before then, Boonen was attacking on the cobbles to get rid of quite a few riders.

    He was trying the same this year in P-R, but then everyone rinsed him for it.
    _
  • afx237vi
    afx237vi Posts: 12,630
    I predict a repeat of Madrid 2005. Lots of attacks, solo or groups of three or four, in the final two laps, but a sprint at the end of 20-30 riders. Watching that video of McEwen riding the course, I think that the long, wide roads after the second climb will make it hard for anyone to get away.
  • Pokerface
    Pokerface Posts: 7,960
    afx237vi wrote:
    I predict a repeat of Madrid 2005. Lots of attacks, solo or groups of three or four, in the final two laps, but a sprint at the end of 20-30 riders. Watching that video of McEwen riding the course, I think that the long, wide roads after the second climb will make it hard for anyone to get away.


    Indeed - which may be why someone will have to try and break away much earlier and build a bigger gap to win. If the peleton miscalculate at all and let a break get too far out - it'll be a surprise ending.
  • Moomaloid
    Moomaloid Posts: 2,040
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    edhornby wrote:
    I can see it being the other way round this year... Spartacus for the double ?

    'tis my prediction.

    mine too! He should've nailed it last year and i don't think he wants to let it go again. However i've also got a sneaky feeling about Thor...
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Moomaloid wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    edhornby wrote:
    I can see it being the other way round this year... Spartacus for the double ?

    'tis my prediction.

    mine too! He should've nailed it last year and i don't think he wants to let it go again. However i've also got a sneaky feeling about Thor...

    Hedging your bets already? :wink:
    _

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