Is Nibali the main danger for Contador in the future?

victorponf

I think so

It's better than Andy in TT and has better mentality in my opinion (a true champion, whit ambition) and competitive always (3th Giro without specific preparation and this great Vuelta)

Bernardus

I doubt it. After several years a a promising GT rider, he made a big step this year by becoming a contender and even a winner. But he'll need (several?) big steps like these to come close to Andy and Contador (and Menchov in top shape).

FJS

It looks like Nibali and Gesink are making more progress than, say, Kreuziger, but whether they'll be able to challenge Contador... time will tell

Pokerface

While Nibali had a good Vuelta - there were times when he struggled in the mountains. When faced with the explosiveness of a rider like Contador, I don't think he would be any match.

But he could still develop into a contender.

luckao

Yeah, he definitely needs a lot of improvement if he's to be considered a serious contender at the levels being mentioned.

Mosquera was unfortunate in that he lacked a big kick to put himself out of Nibali's sights. The Italian would never hang on like that with the two best mates, and certainly wouldn't be able to ride back up to them, not unless they have a repeat of their "no, you first" routine.

takethehighroad

The tthing that struck me about the Vuerlat this year, good as it was, was that everyone was at a n equal level, they were just about as poor as each other in the mountains. Like has been said before, with real top climbers like Basso and Contador he will struggle in the future

iainf72

The big advantage Nibs has over Schleck is he's good under pressure. He doesn't seem to panic and "calculates" very well (quoting Mr Kelly)

Nibs was also smart enough to realise he wouldn't be competitive in the Tour this year and skip it in favour of the Vuelta.

luckao

He also has his suicidal descending skills going in his favour.

I've just reminded myself of this.

lucybears

«Ganar a Contador no es fácil, pero nos veremos en el Tour»

http://translate.google.com/translate?j ... 81810.html
.

micron

Nibali seems somewhat more complete to me than Schleck and the way he rode back to Mosquera to effectively win the Vuelta showede a panache I'm not sure Schlecklet is capable of. Those descending skills are something to behold, too. And on the totally irrational level, there's something about him that I prefer to the Schlecklet's obvious sense of entitlement

Tom Butcher

I can't see it - not next year anyway - Nibali has just beaten Mosquera - does anyone think Mosquera would have been challenging for the Tour ?

It's not as if Schleck is over the hill - he's just had his best Tour, his descending has come on a lot, he's still on the up. I like Nibali as a rider and he's one of a group of possibles that might challenge for the tour over the next few years but for me Andy Schleck is still the main threat to Contador going on matching or bettering the Merckx, Indurain etc group on 5 wins.

micron

Had Cancellara not organised the stage 2 go slow, Schlecklet would have been totally out of contention - coupled with the chaingate panic it looks like a rider who doesn't know how to win a GT. Nibali has a 1st & 3rd in arguably the 2 hardest GTs of the season - he has already taken the step up that Schleck seems incapable of doing

victorponf

micron wrote:

Had Cancellara not organised the stage 2 go slow, Schlecklet would have been totally out of contention - coupled with the chaingate panic it looks like a rider who doesn't know how to win a GT. Nibali has a 1st & 3rd in arguably the 2 hardest GTs of the season - he has already taken the step up that Schleck seems incapable of doing

It's exactly i think, but imposible to me to explain, Andy have too many hangover to develope a champion mentality

micron

Totally agree Victor

dougzz

micron wrote:

Had Cancellara not organised the stage 2 go slow, Schlecklet would have been totally out of contention - coupled with the chaingate panic it looks like a rider who doesn't know how to win a GT. Nibali has a 1st & 3rd in arguably the 2 hardest GTs of the season - he has already taken the step up that Schleck seems incapable of doing

I think the hardest GT is the one that Bertie and Schleck ride, simply because they're the best. Until he's beating Schleck in the TdF he's not Bertie's main rival. If NIbali thought he was that good he'd go after the TdF which carries far more prestige, the fact he rode the Giro and Vuelta says something about his mentality too. Several people have questioned Schleck's champion credentials, but he's the one carrying it to Bertie, he's not picking up the cat 2 GTs.

Arkibal

dougzz wrote:

I think the hardest GT is the one that Bertie and Schleck ride, simply because they're the best. Until he's beating Schleck in the TdF he's not Bertie's main rival. If NIbali thought he was that good he'd go after the TdF which carries far more prestige, the fact he rode the Giro and Vuelta says something about his mentality too. Several people have questioned Schleck's champion credentials, but he's the one carrying it to Bertie, he's not picking up the cat 2 GTs.

To be fair, Nibali was supposed to ride the Tour this year, Pellizotti's bust changed Liquigas' plans and Nibali went to the Giro with a short notice, unprepared and still made it to the podium.

That Nibali was also able to win the Vuelta, I certainly think he is a rider Contador and Andy have to worry about.

iainf72

dougzz wrote:

If NIbali thought he was that good he'd go after the TdF which carries far more prestige, the fact he rode the Giro and Vuelta says something about his mentality too. Several people have questioned Schleck's champion credentials, but he's the one carrying it to Bertie, he's not picking up the cat 2 GTs.

Nibs wasn't supposed to do the Giro, did it and came out of it more tired than he expected to be at that time of year. He took the sensible option and went for the Vuelta. All it says to me is he's smarter than the average bear.

Contador's head games work on Schleck. I doubt they'd work on Vinny.

finchy

micron wrote:

- coupled with the chaingate panic it looks like a rider who doesn't know how to win a GT.

Either that or he could learn from his mistakes and come back a stronger more intelligent rider with help from his team and experienced coaching staff. :idea:

Tom Butcher

There was no chaingate panic - he dropped the chain and failed to pedal it back on - that could happen to anyone. After that he limited his losses very well.

Nibali is an up and coming rider but he's older than Schleck and so far his performances in grand tours have been less impressive than Schleck's - does anyone really think he'd have come closer to Contador than Schleck did this year ?

vision267

Tom Butcher wrote:

There was no chaingate panic - he dropped the chain and failed to pedal it back on - that could happen to anyone. After that he limited his losses very well.

Nibali is an up and coming rider but he's older than Schleck and so far his performances in grand tours have been less impressive than Schleck's - does anyone really think he'd have come closer to Contador than Schleck did this year ?

Nibali is a likeable sort of cyclist.Best descender they is,totally fearless.Very good at the TT,there is still questions about his climbing at the very highest level.

If he can go up a level in the big mountain stages and slightly improve again in the TT's he would bee a massive threat to Contador.He seems to be a confident person and a real competitor.I think his recent win will give him more confidence,but he must improve again.Mentially he is very strong and I don't think he would crack under pressure.


I always enjoy watching him race,but at this moment in time Andy Schleck is still a better grand tour cyclist.

rick_chasey

Jeez what's with all the hating on Schleck the last fortnight?

He's good value in the Tour - better value for spectacle that Bertie.

Ian - with regard to headgames - I don't think it's Contador's mind games working on Schleck. On the contrary they don't work. Schleck ultimately doesn't care as much.

He'll give it his best effort and if it comes up short then fine. He'd never be called the badger.

I thought, chain slip aside, he rode the Tour pretty well. Bertie was always going to beat him, and he made Bertie work hard for it.

He even stayed on Chinny's wheel on the cobbles.

Not that many riders can do that, especially those who fly uphill faster than sh!t off a shovel.



As for Nibs - he, and Liquigas, will be happy for him to clean up the Giros. He'll make a few token Tour efforts and probably realise the Giro is his best bet for fame and glory.

iainf72

Rick Chasey wrote:

Ian - with regard to headgames - I don't think it's Contador's mind games working on Schleck. On the contrary they don't work. Schleck ultimately doesn't care as much.

I don't know - Jeff Bernard or Fignon (one of them, can't remember which) said during the Tour that Schleck wil never win because Contador can get into his head and control him there.

I gather from reading some other stuff that young AS isn't quite as nice as everyone would like to think.

RichN95.

iainf72 wrote:

I don't know - Jeff Bernard or Fignon (one of them, can't remember which) said during the Tour that Schleck wil never win because Contador can get into his head and control him there.

I'd agree with that completely. I find the dynamics of their 'friendship' quite interesting. I think Andy genuinely wants to be friends, while Contador just wants to keep him in a docile submissive frame of mind.

micron

Plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest that AS has been reading the LA Book of Ego - chapter 1 'It's not a popularity contest'

Jeff Bernard has certainly been pretty scathing about AS' tactical sense in riding for 2nd and the stress that AC had obviously put him under in the TdF. How much that's Schleck or Riis, we'll find out next season.

dougzz

All this talk of Nibali and Schleck challenging Bertie, is everyone forgetting Wiggo is a big GT GC threat now

Andy always seems very pleasant and reasonable when I've seen him interviewed, always crosses my mind that he needs to be more single minded and determined to challenge AC. If as alluded to he is, then good, because GT's will be better if there are a number of genuine contenders, especially if Nibali is as good as many think, and Basso has another couple of years in him.

sampras38

dougzz wrote:

All this talk of Nibali and Schleck challenging Bertie, is everyone forgetting Wiggo is a big GT GC threat now

Andy always seems very pleasant and reasonable when I've seen him interviewed, always crosses my mind that he needs to be more single minded and determined to challenge AC. If as alluded to he is, then good, because GT's will be better if there are a number of genuine contenders, especially if Nibali is as good as many think, and Basso has another couple of years in him.

i have no evidence to back it up but something tells me Wiggo has already had his moment of glory in France and I have a nasty feeling he will soon be forgotten about. I was in France the year he got 4th and watched him up close, but I just can't see him repeating it.

Tom Butcher

micron wrote:

Plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest that AS has been reading the LA Book of Ego - chapter 1 'It's not a popularity contest'

Jeff Bernard has certainly been pretty scathing about AS' tactical sense in riding for 2nd and the stress that AC had obviously put him under in the TdF. How much that's Schleck or Riis, we'll find out next season.

That may be Jeff Bernard's opinion but there wasn't any evidence of it in the Tour this year. Anyone who watched the race and thought AS was riding for 2nd is either a poor judge of bike racing or else (more likely) is willing to bend the truth because it makes good copy.

As for Contador getting inside Schleck's head - well I don't know but what is the evidence for it ? He seemed to handle the situation around Contador attacking him when his chain slipped with remarkable calm given that he must have suspected it had just cost him the Tour.

spezial

Nibali's main problem will be that he will have to tow Basso up the climbs in any GT's they both are included in for Liquigas, just look at the Giro.
This will especially be the case now Kreuziger is on his way. If Basso sticks around for a while Nibali may need to go elsewhere.
Also, I know it's impossible to say, but would Anton have won if he'd stayed in?

iainf72

Spezial wrote:

Nibali's main problem will be that he will have to tow Basso up the climbs in any GT's they both are included in for Liquigas, just look at the Giro.

I don't know - I think Liquigas will balance it well - Better than most teams. Nibali knew he couldn't win the Giro this year and did his job very well. If Nibs was better than Basso in a GT, I doubt Basso would have any problems working for him.

spezial

iainf72 wrote:

Spezial wrote:

Nibali's main problem will be that he will have to tow Basso up the climbs in any GT's they both are included in for Liquigas, just look at the Giro.

I don't know - I think Liquigas will balance it well - Better than most teams. Nibali knew he couldn't win the Giro this year and did his job very well. If Nibs was better than Basso in a GT, I doubt Basso would have any problems working for him.

I reckon Nibali would have won the Giro if he didn't have to pull on the front up the big climbs so much, but you're right, I don't think Basso is the type of rider who would have a problem working for somebody else.
Do you think that Lickygas will have them ride in the same GT again next year? Also, how many more seasons do you think it will be before Basso goes to a retirement team like Geox or Radioshack?

iainf72

Spezial wrote:

I reckon Nibali would have won the Giro if he didn't have to pull on the front up the big climbs so much, but you're right, I don't think Basso is the type of rider who would have a problem working for somebody else.
Do you think that Lickygas will have them ride in the same GT again next year? Also, how many more seasons do you think it will be before Basso goes to a retirement team like Geox or Radioshack?

Nah, Nibs couldn't have won the Giro. He knew it, the team knew it. He was in good shape but was a few percent off Basso. Look at how he went to pieces on the final mountain stage.

I reckon Basso will ride out his career at Liquigas. Probably become a worker for someone like Nibs in the coming years.