Comparing the Tour favourites

frenchfighter

I did a little searching for a few facts and the results for each proposed contender for the Tour overall and the results are quite interesting.

Top 5s on individual stages, top 20s on one day races, top 10s in stage race overalls and top 5s on jersey classifications are included. Note there is a lot of info to include so if you see an error please point it out. Riders in alaphabetical order.

ARMSTRONG
25 race days - 3200km
62nd Overall CQ Ranking

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5th Tour Lux Prologue
3rd Overall Tour Lux
5th TdS Stage 6th
2nd Overall TdS

Although he looked poor all year and has very few race days, I wouldn't be surprised if he turns up in good form for the Tour given his only results are coming near to the start. Will think he will suffer in the TTs and suffer in the mountains, so cannot see him getting a top 5.

BASSO
42 race days - 6400km
14th Overall CQ Ranking

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3rd Giro Trent Stage 3
5th Overall Giro Trent
GIRO: 2nd Stage 14, 1st Stage 15, 3rd Stage 20. 1st Overall. 5th Points. 2ns Mountains.

A solid and quality performance in the Giro, but little else apart from that. Hoping that he is in great form in the Tour, enough to top 5, ideally podium.

CONTADOR
30 race days - 4500km
2nd Overall CQ Ranking

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1st Volta Algarve Stage 3
2nd Volta Algarve Stage 5
1st Overall VA
4th PN Stage 1
1st PN Stage 4
1st Overall PN
3rd Mountains PN
3rd Points PN
2nd Crit Int Stage 3
3rd Castilla Leon Stage 3
1st Castilla Leon Stage 4
1st Overall Castilla Leon
3rd Fleche Wallonne
9th LBL
1st Dauphine Prologue
4th Dauphine Stage 4
1st Dauphine Stage 5
2nd Overall Dauphine
1st Points Dauphine
3rd Mountains Dauphine

Like Evans, he has been exciting and active in the majority of his races and his wins include solo summit finishes as well as ITTs. Hoping he can win the Tour. According to CQ he has 8 wins in 2010 which is 3rd out of EVERY Pro. Greipel is first and David Mccann is 2nd (all wins in Asia...). Not only does this demonstrate his quality, it demonstrates his attitude to races he competes in and his ability to hold form.

EVANS
42 race days - 6900km
1st Overall CQ Rankings

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2nd TDU Stage 3
6th Overall TDU
4th TA Stage 5
3rd TA Stage 6
3rd Overall TA
3rd Points TA
6th Overall Crit Int
13th Amstel Gold
1st Fleche Wallonne
4th LBL
GIRO: 3rd Stage 1, 1st Stage 7, 4th Stage 14, 2nd Stage 15, 2nd Stage 16, 2nd Stage 20, 4th Stage 21. 5th Overal. 4th Mountains. 1st Points.

An amazing rider so far this year wiht consistently high performances in top quality races. His Giro performance over so many stages is particularly impressive. Hopeing he can top 5 the Tour.

MENCHOV
29 race days - 3700km
59th Overall CQ Ranking

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4th Vuelta Murcia Stage 3
2nd Vuelta Murcia Stage 4
2nd Overall Vuelta Murcia
9th Overall Castilla Leon
4th Romandie Stage 4
3rd Romandie Stage 5
2nd Overall Romandie
3rd Mountains Romandie
5th Crit Int Stage 3

A decent set of results although not extraordinary or diverse. Presume he wont figure much in the Tour.

SASTRE
29 race days - 4800km
140th Overall CQ Ranking

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GIRO: 3rd Giro Stage 11th. 8th Overall

A barren entry for Sastre, unsurprising to many. It would hav been nice to see him win a stage or two in the Giro. For the Tour, I don't hold much hope for overall placing and would really like to see him go for the Polka Dot or stage wins.

A SCHLECK
25 race days - 4100km
93rd Overall CQ Ranking

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18th Amstel Gold
8th Fleche Wallonne
5th LBL

Very disappointing for Contador's foremost riva, except a solid Ardennes. I wonder how much is down to injury and how much is down to lack of form/quality/attitude (I suspect the latter mostly). I hope he really pushes Contador in the mountains to make the Tour more interesting. I don't really care where he finishes, as long as it is not first.

F SCHLECK
36 race days - 5500km
38th Overall CQ Ranking

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3rd Klasika Primavera
7th Amstel Gold
8th LBL
1st Tour Lux Stage 2
2nd Overall Tour Lux
1st TdS Stage 3
1st Overall TdS

Reasonably good performances from big Schleck. I would like to see him outperform his brother at the Tour. Jens is saying that he has problems prior to the Tour and we should look out for him this year.

WIGGINS
45 race days - 6900 km
97th Overall CQ Ranking

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2nd Ruta Sol Stage 4
3rd Vuelta Murcia Stage 4
3rd Overall Vuelta Murcia
GIRO: 1st Stage 1, 4th Stage 11

A vast number of race days is good despite the lack of results which all come in ITTs only apart from one Giro stage (his efficiency too is low). I guess his build up has been very targetted and planned and would assume and hope it puts him in good form for the Tour. Would hope for a top 5, although think it will quite a bit harder than last year.

VANDE VELDE
28 race days - 3800km
466th Overall CQ Ranking

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No results meet the aforementioned criteria

He never does anything all year round and then does ok in the Tour. Definitely not my type of rider.

Other riders like Gesink, Nibali, Kreuziger among others I haven't included as they don't have previous top flight GT GC palmares and aren't being touted as major contenders.

timoid.

Frank Schleck only reasonable?

Hasn't he just won the 4th biggest stage race on the calendar?

Should put Gesink in there. He will podium this year.

shinyhelmut

I did a little searching for a few facts and the results for each proposed contender for the Tour overall and the results are quite interesting.

So you've managed to prove Contador will probably win the tour. I don't think many of us needed to resort to statistics to come to that conclusion! Here's hoping for a surprise, or at least for a race as exciting as the Giro, I'm not holding my breath....

Abdoujaparov

Frank Schleck's good form is great news for Andy's TdF chances. No doubt in my mind that Frank will ride for Andy in the tour.

Menchov will do well too - my tip for third behind contador in first and a schleck in second.

Basso and evans went deep at the giro so I'd have thought one of them will be average (by their standards) and the other will be poor. An average basso would still be pretty good though.

Reckon wiggo will come to form nicely for a creditable 6th or 7th.

finchy

Timoid. wrote:

Frank Schleck only reasonable?

Hasn't he just won the 4th biggest stage race on the calendar?

No, he's just won the Tour of Switzerland.

calvjones

johnfinch wrote:

Timoid. wrote:

Frank Schleck only reasonable?

Hasn't he just won the 4th biggest stage race on the calendar?

No, he's just won the Tour of Switzerland.

yeah FF where's Mick in this run down of favourites. 2 Stage race overalls this year, TTing better than it has been for a while.

Not a parcour for him but reckon he'll finish around wiggo.

Gazzetta67

No Janez Brajkovic for the Overall then ??? - If he can keep his form he would murder his boss Armstrong in the TT's or will Lance tell Johan that "Its my ball and i wanna win" and keep him out the team - The texan messiah usually likes his yes men in the team.

Bakunin

Luis Leon Sanchez?

Sammy Sanchez?

frenchfighter

Sure there are other contenders - I just included those that most sites/magazines are saying. I could add those others guys for interest later. They aren't going to be long entries in any case.

frenchfighter

calvjones wrote:

where's Mick .

You're right. He has a very good entry.

ROGERS
47 race days - 6700km
27th Overall CQ Ranking

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5th TDU Stage 3
4th Ruta Sol Stage 4
3rd Ruta Sol Stage 5
1st Overall Ruta Sol
3rd Eroica
3rd Crit Int Stage 3
2nd Overall Crit Int
3rd Pais Vasco Stage 6
4th Romandie Prologue
3rd Romandie Stage 3
3rd Overall Romandie
2nd ToC Stage 3
2nd ToC Stage 5
3rd ToC Stage 6
2nd ToC Stage 7
1st Overall ToC

I was surprised at the extent of his wins and top placings this year and think it would be great to see him up there in the Tour as someone I haven't seen mentioned.

pedro118118

I don't think popular opinion has changed at all since the season started: -

1. Contador
2. Shleck (A);
3. AN Other..............to come from the likes of Evans, Nibali, Menchov, VdV, Kloeden etc

There's then a group behind these, which I would include the likes of Rogers, Wiggo, Basso, Gessink, Shleck (F), Armstrong, Vino who could do something with a bit of luck.

Abdoujaparov

Ok, here's my tip for the top twelve:

Contador
A Schleck
Menchov
Armstrong
F Schleck
Nibali
Wiggins
Evans
Basso
Kloden
Gesink
Rogers

Strongest TdF field in ages!

iainf72

Nibs isn't doing the Tour, is he?

Kléber

Cervelo don't yet know if Sastre will even ride.

Abdoujaparov

iainf72 wrote:

Nibs isn't doing the Tour, is he?

Oh, looks like you're right. Shame for him - thrust into the Giro at the last minute, now has to settle for a tilt at the Vuelta.

In that case, I'll move Basso up my list a little.

iainf72

Abdoujaparov wrote:

Oh, looks like you're right. Shame for him - thrust into the Giro at the last minute, now has to settle for a tilt at the Vuelta.

It's his choice I think. He didn't think he could do the Tour and would rather have a go at winning the Vuelta than performing poorly at the Tour.

Abdoujaparov

iainf72 wrote:

Abdoujaparov wrote:

Oh, looks like you're right. Shame for him - thrust into the Giro at the last minute, now has to settle for a tilt at the Vuelta.

It's his choice I think. He didn't think he could do the Tour and would rather have a go at winning the Vuelta than performing poorly at the Tour.

But did he make that decision before he was picked for the giro? Would be strange for someone of his ability to only do the vuelta and skip the other GTs.

iainf72

Abdoujaparov wrote:

But did he make that decision before he was picked for the giro? Would be strange for someone of his ability to only do the vuelta and skip the other GTs.

Correct, he decided in the latter parts of the Giro. I'm sure he considers a 3rd place in the Giro more important than a possible win in the ToC.

Also, for the Vuelta he'll be the main man for Liquigas. In the Tour he'd be joint leader (but in reality, sharing 2nd choice with Roman K)

calvjones

iainf72 wrote:

Abdoujaparov wrote:

But did he make that decision before he was picked for the giro? Would be strange for someone of his ability to only do the vuelta and skip the other GTs.

Correct, he decided in the latter parts of the Giro. I'm sure he considers a 3rd place in the Giro more important than a possible win in the ToC.

Also, for the Vuelta he'll be the main man for Liquigas. In the Tour he'd be joint leader (but in reality, sharing 2nd choice with Roman K)

So will Basso be leader for the Tour then I wonder?

Abdoujaparov

calvjones wrote:

So will Basso be leader for the Tour then I wonder?

Yep, Basso has confirmed as much and hopes that Kreuziger will do what Nibali did for him in the Giro.

dave_1

Contador will win by 1 minute or less..the schelks shonky TT form will not be shown up so late in the race given the need for stamina. AC was poor in the final TT of the 08 Giro though! It will be a very close TDF , 30 seconds- 1 minute max on GC

Kléber

Sastre is now confirmed for the race but I can't see him doing a lot. The KoM jersey might be a good idea, deliberately sit up on the cobbles to play it safe, lose time and then be allowed to claim the jersey. But beyond that, it would take a small miracle for him to crack the top-10 given the back pain.

dave_1

Kléber wrote:

Sastre is now confirmed for the race but I can't see him doing a lot. The KoM jersey might be a good idea, deliberately sit up on the cobbles to play it safe, lose time and then be allowed to claim the jersey. But beyond that, it would take a small miracle for him to crack the top-10 given the back pain.

Fair strategy but think back to Lucien Van Impe, Robert Millar, who made it meaningful, Hinault even in 1986, who were not seeking ways to drop off the GC radar to win the Polka dot jersey-which should never ever be seen as a most aggressive rider jersey but a pure climber jersey. Jalabert was the first rider that really left me surprised. He was no Lucho Herrera ever.

JSB24

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/4622/ ... -ride.aspx

As the link above suggests, Sastre has been cleared to ride the Tour

dave_1

At the TDF 1986 they did away with the hot spot sprints jersey and had the combine Jersey for the next three years for aggressive riders, a bit like the inter-Giro jersey circa at the Giro 1989-90. The Polka dot Jersey should be exclusively for riders in the forefront of GC battles. Sorry to sidetrack the thread but Kleber's posting got me thinking back to the halcyon days

http://velonews.competitor.com/files/ar ... bnail2.jpg

OffTheBackAdam

I suspect (&n hope!) it's going to be an interesting race.
Those opening stages mean Bertie's going to be put under pressure by the teams who've got a good racing brain at the helm.
Will he cock-up like last year, getting caught out in a cross-wind split?
Armstrong's coming into form, judging by his TdS performance, but I suspect that Anno Domini will still be acting against him.
Schleck Jnr appears to have found out how to do a TT, so that should put him in good stead.
Wiggin's will be a marked man, they won't cut him any slack and to beat Bertie, he's got to beat him in the mountains, a tall order that relies on Bertie having Un Jour Sans.
So, I suspect it'll be a Contador waiving the lion in Paris, with Schleck Jnr and someone else following him!
(How's that for a prediction)

dave_1

Anyone rooting for Basso? He's the most transparent at the moment, not been race dodging/test dodging and it's all online. Even though he ain't man enough to give up his 06 Giro a la Millar 04, I hope he does a great tour

DaveyL

Dave_1 wrote:

Anyone rooting for Basso? He's the most transparent at the moment, not been race dodging/test dodging and it's all online. Even though he ain't man enough to give up his 06 Giro a la Millar 04, I hope he does a great tour

I can't imagine anyone on here who would be....

greeny12

If it can't be a Wiggins "miracle" I'd be happy to see Basso win. Think he might have left too much in the Giro though - man, that was a tough race!

My top three:

Contador
Lance
F Schleck

Cumulonimbus

Dave_1 wrote:

Contador will win by 1 minute or less..the schelks shonky TT form will not be shown up so late in the race given the need for stamina. AC was poor in the final TT of the 08 Giro though! It will be a very close TDF , 30 seconds- 1 minute max on GC

AC and Astana only knew they were riding the 08 Giro a couple of weeks beforehand so Conty not being in the best form in the tt wasnt that surprising. Most of the people who beat him had been soft=-pedalling through the previous mountain stages anyway.

I think the 1-2 from last year will be the same again this year but the odds reflect this so its not the bravest statement ever

Abdoujaparov

Agree that Contador's winning margin is likely to be less than last year. Not because any one rider is particularly strong, but cos the field is stronger than before. One of the six or seven other contenders is bound to have a great race.