Will Lance be better this year?

donrhummy

Lance is NOT messing around. He's definitely doing a LOT more than last year. This reminds me of the Lance from 2004.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66-_sSr_BDg

And BTW, Allen Lim's idea with the strings is BRILLIANT. Much better (and cheaper) than a wind tunnel. And with the software available these days, they can track each string on a computer.

Bhima

The string idea has been around for years. I believe car companies still use it to get a quick idea of turbulance effects so they can address certain issues before venturing into the wind tunnel for more detailed analysis.

I've been meaning to try it myself on rollers and my 2 giant fans but i've not got round to it yet. You need someone to monitor the strings or a very good video camera while you do it if you don't have the proper gear.

I've been present at a UNI demonstration/open day/lecture/thingy while an aerodynamics engineer has done this with a track rider on a static trainer with a static camera hooked up to some computer gizmo thingy. The "strings" were basically some kind of device that gives off progressively more IR radiation, the more they move, which was picked up by the special camera as vibrating points and shown onscreen. The more they moved, the brighter they appeared. The hand points were off the scale! I guess glove choice in a TT might make a big difference...

He advised everyone that, ideally, you want the strings behind the head/lower back to be moving equally, as this means the airflow is smooth over your body. The difference between a TT helmet and a normal one was immense. He found the rider's ideal TT/IP arm position, which was one that actually stopped the strings on your quads moving completely. He had the strings all over the rear-end of the bike and another bike behind him, so he could analyse how cadence had an effect on the draft he would leave.

All very interesting stuff, although it looks like Lance is using a slightly less high-tech version of it, with video cameras and visual judgement.

Jez mon

The stings idea will allow for instant-ish analysis of specific areas yes. But I would still say it would have a number of disadvantages over a wind tunnel. Not least the fact that the data would be difficult to repeat as it would be affected by the outdoor conditions...

However, I'm not sure how much he trained last year, is he doing that much more this year? I doubt it, for him to have come in and got 4th at le tour last year, he must have been close to his best possible shape and whether he likes it or not, his best possible physical shape is going to continue to decline. No matter how many little bits of string he attaches to his skin suit!!

BikingBernie

Who knows what he might do. Just another few CC's of 'packed cells' might make all the difference...

VerwoodAsh

I think he will do better - A lot more stringent testing wil mean the others get caught and he can show what riding clean means....

It will be Lance vs Bradley Vs cadel as the only clean GTC contenders

camerone

BikingBernie wrote:

Who knows what he might do. Just another few CC's of 'packed cells' might make all the difference...

do you think he will be the only one doing that?

BikingBernie

camerone wrote:

BikingBernie wrote:

Who knows what he might do. Just another few CC's of 'packed cells' might make all the difference...

do you think he will be the only one doing that?

Of course not, but given the free hand the UCI and ASO seemingly gave to the riders in last years Tour (with not one rider being found to be using any sort of prohibited substance....yeah right! ) I do wonder if this year some riders will be tempted to 'make hay whilst the sun shines'...

prb007

I think he can win it this year - RS will be going all out to make it happen - plus I've been following his training in Hawaii and he's definitely in better shape than at this stage 12 months ago, PLUS a full season of racing behind him, I have every confidence!

So much so that I've put a cheeky £100 on it at 9/1 on PaddyPower.com!

blazing_saddles

If a guy pushing 39, up against a better cyclist than he encountered during his prime, wins the Tour, I'll take up watching wrestling.
Both sports would be equally credible.

Perhaps PP should set odds for how many times this thread topic will appear on cycling forums, before July.

teagar

What I don't understand is that the guy's racing more post-retirement per season than before.

I'm pretty sure that the older you get, the more you should focus on quality over quantity, because your body just takes that bit longer to recover.

Any ideas?



I can't remotely see Armstrong winning.

boneyjoe

Will certainly be very interesting to watch and make for a great contest. AC probably just taking it again, but it will be close. Don't think Bradley or Cadel can win, but a podium for either would be fab.

sampras38

BikingBernie wrote:

Who knows what he might do. Just another few CC's of 'packed cells' might make all the difference...

Can we change the record please...?

;-)

sampras38

prb007 wrote:

I think he can win it this year - RS will be going all out to make it happen - plus I've been following his training in Hawaii and he's definitely in better shape than at this stage 12 months ago, PLUS a full season of racing behind him, I have every confidence!

So much so that I've put a cheeky £100 on it at 9/1 on PaddyPower.com!

I'd love him to do better than last year but I just can't see it. Yes he'll be better prepared than last year but he's also a year older, plus the others such as Schleck and Contador will be a lot more focused. Especially as AC won't be tied to LA in the same team. There is more climbing this year and LA struggled a bit last year.

You also have Evans who screwed up last year. Not sure about Wiggo as I have a feeling he made the best of a situation last year and it won't be as easy this time. I'll be suprised if Wiggo gets top 5.

I reckon LA will get 3rd again.

Although the cobbles might screw everything up...

sampras38

teagar wrote:

What I don't understand is that the guy's racing more post-retirement per season than before.

I'm pretty sure that the older you get, the more you should focus on quality over quantity, because your body just takes that bit longer to recover.

Any ideas?



I can't remotely see Armstrong winning.

Who knows, but I suppose it's a bit like any sportsman who doesn't feel there's anything to prove anymore. They can relax a bit and do stuff they wouldn't have before. Tennis players sometimes start mucking about with doubles or more exhibitions once they're close to hanging up the racket for Slams.

calvjones

He'll need to improve substantially just to recover the losses implied by the ITT (over riders other than AC and Wiggo). Add to this the increased climbing, where he is clearly not as good as Andy or Bertie, and the fact the only ITT comes at the end, when gaps tend to be smaller...

He's gotta hope for some crashes or echelons in the first few days as he tends to be well placed (and well lucky) compared to other riders.

calvjones

Oh, yeah, I forgot, and he can't TT anymore...

moray_gub

calvjones wrote:

He'll need to improve substantially just to recover the losses implied by the ITT (over riders other than AC and Wiggo). Add to this the increased climbing, where he is clearly not as good as Andy or Bertie, and the fact the only ITT comes at the end, when gaps tend to be smaller...

He's gotta hope for some crashes or echelons in the first few days as he tends to be well placed (and well lucky) compared to other riders.

I think he will be better this year if he has an injury free season and it goes the way he wants it to go. Clearly the two you mention are better than him but the others ? Also when you say lucky you ever considered the possibility maybe other riders arent as good bike handlers as him ? Up until last year i cant recall him having many crashes or at least crashes that meant time off the bilke. I also dont think he was given nearly enough credit for his 3rd last year taking everything in to consideration it was a excellent performance .

BikingBernie

calvjones wrote:

Oh, yeah, I forgot, and he can't TT anymore...

He never could.... until he teamed with Ferrari that is.

sampras38

Moray Gub wrote:

calvjones wrote:

He'll need to improve substantially just to recover the losses implied by the ITT (over riders other than AC and Wiggo). Add to this the increased climbing, where he is clearly not as good as Andy or Bertie, and the fact the only ITT comes at the end, when gaps tend to be smaller...

He's gotta hope for some crashes or echelons in the first few days as he tends to be well placed (and well lucky) compared to other riders.

I think he will be better this year if he has an injury free season and it goes the way he wants it to go. Clearly the two you mention are better than him but the others ? Also when you say lucky you ever considered the possibility maybe other riders arent as good bike handlers as him ? Up until last year i cant recall him having many crashes or at least crashes that meant time off the bilke. I also dont think he was given nearly enough credit for his 3rd last year taking everything in to consideration it was a excellent performance .

Difficult to crash when you're at the front though...;-)

But yeah, he does seem to have great awareness.

And I'll say it again. BB, change the record it's really getting quite boring. Can you not respond to a thread without making reference to LA and drugs?

And no I'm not a fanboy.

BikingBernie

sampras38 wrote:

[BB, change the record it's really getting quite boring. Can you not respond to a thread without making reference to LA and drugs?

And people talking endlessly about Armstrong isn't?

Nevertheless I will do as you say..
















...as soon as he is no longer the topic of the moment....

timoid.

Moray Gub wrote:

calvjones wrote:

He'll need to improve substantially just to recover the losses implied by the ITT (over riders other than AC and Wiggo). Add to this the increased climbing, where he is clearly not as good as Andy or Bertie, and the fact the only ITT comes at the end, when gaps tend to be smaller...

He's gotta hope for some crashes or echelons in the first few days as he tends to be well placed (and well lucky) compared to other riders.

I think he will be better this year if he has an injury free season and it goes the way he wants it to go. Clearly the two you mention are better than him but the others ? Also when you say lucky you ever considered the possibility maybe other riders arent as good bike handlers as him ? Up until last year i cant recall him having many crashes or at least crashes that meant time off the bilke. I also dont think he was given nearly enough credit for his 3rd last year taking everything in to consideration it was a excellent performance .

I don't think its bike handling skills, its more his racing brain. He knows where to be at all times and expends his team mates keeping him there. Not getting done by splits and echelons ain't luck its judgement.

terongi

VerwoodAsh wrote:

I think he will do better - A lot more stringent testing wil mean the others get caught and he can show what riding clean means....

It will be Lance vs Bradley Vs cadel as the only clean GTC contenders

Oh, you mean just the ones that speak ENGLISH

sampras38

BikingBernie wrote:

sampras38 wrote:

[BB, change the record it's really getting quite boring. Can you not respond to a thread without making reference to LA and drugs?

And people talking endlessly about Armstrong isn't?

Nevertheless I will do as you say..
















...as soon as he is no longer the topic of the moment....

:roll:

prb007

BB.......why would LA NOT be the topic of the moment, he's thirty-eight and going for his EIGHTH tour victory, a feat which will probably never be repeated in our lifetime, if ever.

BTW if you have information (re. doping) which the UCI, WADA, etc. etc. haven't been able
to discover in nearly 20 yaers of testing LA, please, do share it with us all........muppet!

sampras38

prb007 wrote:

BB.......why would LA NOT be the topic of the moment, he's thirty-eight and going for his EIGHTH tour victory, a feat which will probably never be repeated in our lifetime, if ever.

BTW if you have information (re. doping) which the UCI, WADA, etc. etc. haven't been able
to discover in nearly 20 yaers of testing LA, please, do share it with us all........muppet!

Don't bait him, otherwise the thread'll turn into another drug debate., and I guess not what the OP originally wanted. There are enough of em on here as it is.

pedro118118

Putting the Tour to one side for a moment, I've been impressed with him so far - I know it's early days. He is far more active and has animated the TdU this year and at least provided some brief respite from the HTC/Greipel show.

At the moment, he looks strong and lean.

As for the quality over quantity argument. Well, even in his prime years, he only really rode the Tour to win and everything else was preperation, so no one had any idea what his form was like until the Dauphine. Perhaps he fancies having a crack at a Classic, it think he's always liked Amstel Gold and some cobbles practice would be sensible. Does seem a bit odd to race more now, then he did in his peak, but then again, I'm not a sports scientist!

prb007

I think its' safe to safe that after 20 years or so as a pro, he should know what he's doing wrt preparation! Allez Lance!

dougzz

How can LA beat AC and AS?

He's a year older, can't match AS in the climbs, and AC in the TT and climbs. HIs only positive (aside from the ones the UCI don't look for) is he beats them hands down for smarts, and team strength against AC. He's always in the right place at the right time, that has to be smarts, you can't be that lucky year in year out. With Levi and Kloedon he has real support, which AC will lack. But ultimately the only real threat to AC is if AS has developed his TT skills, until then it's the Bertie show every July. Injury and accident aside the so called GT contenders are fighting for the bottom step of the podium.

BikingBernie

prb007 wrote:

BTW if you have information (re. doping) which the UCI, WADA, etc. etc. haven't been able to discover in nearly 20 yaers of testing LA, please, do share it with us all........muppet!

Given your lowly post count I can only assume you are unaware of all the debates on here that have considered this very topic, and as such are another of those proving the validity of the old adage 'Ignorance is bliss'. Do a search on here and you will find that there is overwhelming evidence that Armstrong doped right though his career, moving into the 'big time' by virtue of getting onto a properly medically managed doping program under Ferrari. There is also ample evidence showing that the UCI have gone out of their way to protect him 'for the good of cycling', not to mention the half a million Dollar bung he gave them for commissioning a hatchet job on the LNDD when his 'positives' for Epo in the 1999 Tour came to light.* It is also the case that right through Armstrong's career autologous blood doping - the favoured method of doping in USP** - was undetectable...

The following would be two good places to begin your enlightenment...

http://www.scribd.com/doc/16226502/Lanc ... ng-History

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Lance-Landis-In ... pd_sim_b_1

---

*UCI experts do not believe in Armstrong

It may be that Lance Armstrong never officially tested positive, but according to Robin Paris Otto, one of UCI's anti-doping experts and the man who in 2000 developed the first analytical method for the detection of EPO, there is evidence that the opposite is true.

...He adds that the results which showed that the American was doped in1999 must be considered to be valid from a scientific point of view . "The methods used were valid. It is clear that the question mark concerning whether Armstrong was doped really is more of a legal than scientific nature. So there is scientific evidence that he was doped in1999 and that he took epo. To deny it would be to lie. "

http://www.feltet.dk/index.php?id_paren ... yhed=17128

"So there is no doubt in my mind he (Lance Armstrong) took EPO during the '99 Tour."

http://nyvelocity.com/content/interview ... l-ashenden

---

** Cyclevaughters: yeah, it's very complex how the avoid all the controls now, but it's not any new drug or anything, just the resources and planning to pull of a well devised plan

Cyclevaughters: it's why they all got dropped on stage 9 - no refill yet - then on the rest day - boom 800ml of packed cells

FDREU: they have it mastered. good point

Cyclevaughters: they draw the blood right after the dauphine

FDREU: how do they sneak it in, or keep it until needed

FDREU: i'm sure it's not with the truck in the frig

Cyclevaughters: motorcycle - refridgerated panniers

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/indepth/landis ... ssage.html

The Prodigy

BB, just out of interest how many times have you posted those links?

Don't get me wrong I agree with a fair old chunk of what you say but could you not provide maybe one link rather than having to scroll through all that each time someone refuses to see through the myth of LA

dennisn

Somebody please give the record player a nudge. The needle is sticking.