Tour de France first week analysis

Kléber

I thought I'd start something to discuss how the racing as whole has been and what lessons we can learn from the past week's racing.

My winners:
Contador, Armstrong, Wiggo and Cavendish
Contador's still looking like the favourite but Armstrong's still very close. Wiggins is surely the surprise of the Tour and Cav's first week has gone to plan, except for maybe a couple of green jersey points.

The losers:
Evans, Evans and Menchov.
I put Evans twice! Not just because he's lost time but because he compounded this with a stupid move in the Pyrenees. Full marks for cojones to attack like that but I bet he had Bruyneel laughing his black socks off. Menchov is lurking on GC next to Botcharov and Hincapie.

IanLD

Much as it pains me to agree on Armstrong, he has done quite well with the tactics this week. Contador must be feeling quite comfortable ad Wiggins has really produced some amazing rides so far. Don't know how long he will last though if he is too much underweight.

Cavendish has been great, but I'd have liked to have seen him trying to stay with Hushovd to fight out the sprint points. As he says, Paris is more important than green, so hopefully he can still be in contention with a further couple of wins.

Although I'm not a Contador fan, I'm looking forward to seeing how he shows Armstrong the he knows a thing or two about riding a grand tour.

nferrar

What a waste of the Pyrenees though - wtf is the point of putting all the climbs in the start/middle of the stage pffft.

richa

Got to add Hushovd to the Winner list. Been right on Cav's wheels all week and then surges ahead with some intermediate points.

iainf72

TTT has been a spectacular failure in terms of what it's done to the GC. Especially with the route not being really build for people to claw back time. Perhaps a harder finish today would've changed some things.

I expect the race will be done before Ventoux. Bit of a rejigging perhaps as there are a lot of people high up who will fade in the 3rd week.

Kléber

iainf72 wrote:

TTT has been a spectacular failure in terms of what it's done to the GC.

Yes but I'd say this owes as much to the riders as it does to the route, stage type or anything else. Silence-Lotto had known for nine months what the course was about yet they still fell to pieces. I've seen junior teams ride with more unity. A shame that Evans has to pay the price but that's his fault for not drilling the team better.

FJS

I would put Tony Martin among the winners, on the same line as Wiggins. Also known mostly for flat (short) TT-ing, but finding climbing abilities. Suddenly high up the list of future GC contenders.

I would put among the losers Kreuziger; he's still in there, but losing a minute on Arcalis, and letting the first group (with Wiggins and Martin) go was just below expectation.
And, on a more unfortunate and sadder note, Gesink. He might have spiced up things in the last three days.

Bakunin

I think Contador has to be considered as a loser, but not for what he has done on the road.

As the week unfolded, it is clear that Armstrong, LL, and JB wanted to put the old man in yellow. All that talk about letting the road decide was a joke. Having Popo and HZ pull when the peloton split was weak, and Armstrong's manipulation of the media (re: team rules) was disgusting.

Contador seems like he is on the outside looking in -- a dangerous position to be in with 2 weeks to go.

Winners -- nice to see some French riders have success. Although I'm a LL Sanchez fan, I was pulling for Sandy Casar.

IanLD

I think Contador has the ability and class to ride without the distraction of a split team hindering him. The others need to exploit the apparent divisions in Astana to bring pressure to bear, but I wonder what discussions have been going on behind the scenes amongst the Spanish riders?

Contador has been handling all the fuss with dignity and has let his one attack show that he is the real thing in the Astana team. They'd be best to concentrate on him, but others in the team seem to have allegiances elsewhere that may be their overall downfall.

Jez mon

I'd put the tour organisers in the losers column, the Pyrenees were wasted, yes Cadel (and Sastre) had months to prepare for the TTT but what were they meant to do, their respective teams don't have the budget to mount a credible TTT team, nor can they afford to just focus on the tour, Silence Lotto especially need to make a good showing in the classics.

Sure they are trying to engineer a situation where it's all up in the air at the foot of the ventoux, but it's incredibly difficult to engineer an exciting race, and making the first two weeks of a GT boring isn't how you do it!

Other losers, Tom Boonen, Oscar Freire.

Winners:
Lance, he recused an average performance in the initial TT by catching a ride with his old mate George, and by having a ridiculously strong TTT team.

Cav; showed he's pretty damn hard to beat, Thor; reminded us he can climb a bit and has the nous needed to win a green jersey.

Wiggins, shows he can climb and TT with the best of them (well during the first week at least)

ACMadone

Who thought that when Lance attacked a tthe beginning of todays stage he looked sluggish and pardon me for saying this but fat?

Mettan

Where's Voigt and O'Grady - Where's Saxo Bank, as a "Team" - they've got some great riders, but they've let Astana establish themselves "psychologically" as the "Men", at the front - they've almost let Astana feel as if they own the race - not good from a psychologocal point of view (or for morale). Saxo need to say (by sitting at the front more and asserting themselves), we're here, we're big guys aswell, we want to do things aswell - but they're not doing it enough. Astana's confidence "as a team unit" must be growing and growing.

Just rambling.

Trev36

Winners:
Armstrong because he has been able to dictate to the team a race that suits him rather than Contador.
Cavendish, strong support, strong results.
Hushovd, for being able to fight back into the green
Wiggins & Martin for producing great rides to have them in a great GC position.
Contador, for riding with a win in mind and not laying down to team 'plans' that don't suit.
Evans, despite his losses he has shown he is not afraid to have a go even when it's unexpected. He hasn't given up and doing anything and everything he can. He has been virtually the only one so far taking it up to the Astana juggernaut.
Voeckler, for the luck that the sprinter teams didn't work properly to hunt him down.



Losers:
Contador, clearly the strongest so far and getting shafted by team mate(s).
Evans, the poor TTT has really made his chance of a win become next to zero
Menchov, a little bad luck and also perhaps tired from the GIro's efforts.
Boonen, a winner in a sense because he actually got to start, but I reckon he might be wishing he stayed home so far.
Davis because he was there to start and got replaced last minute.
Freire, some bad luck on a couple of stages not being able to even contest the sprint.
All the main non Astana GC riders and their teams, for what seems they are more concerned with racing for second or third rather than trying to win. (takes you back a few years).
Cancellara, for his big whinge in the Evans breakaway, Why did he join it if he thought won't succeeed?
Saxo Bank, because they could have used Evans & Cancellara in the break to put some hurt on Astana.

victorponf

A big loser for me: ASO, the have insult Pinineos, specially Tourmalet, what a shame of stage!

dave_1

the biggest loser is the TDF...Pruedhomme damaged his event with that route decison st 1-14

Best of the week-Lance Armstrong. Could Indurain have come out of retirement in 2000 to battle Pantani and Lance? Could Hinault have come ouf retirement in1990 to battle Lemond and Indurain?

Wiggins...brill. Could he win the TDF 09?

rockmount

Dave_1 wrote:

Wiggins...brill. Could he win the TDF 09?

I doubt it, but, I have a fiver each way on him @ 800:1

FJS

Another big loser, although this has been going on for longer, but particularly pronounced this year:
The polka dot jersey.
It seems nobody that matters takes it seriously anymore. OK, Egoi Martinez is a fine rider, but where are the times of Van Impe, Herrera, Chiappucci, Virenque, Rasmussen even? While the Green jersey is taken seriously by a score of top-level sprinters it seems all the top-level climbers now sniff at polka. I know, they all think they can still win the overall, but come on Frank, Carlos, Andy, Roman, Denis, Cadel, you know you would look good in it!

mididoctors

FJS wrote:

Another big loser, although this has been going on for longer, but particularly pronounced this year:
The polka dot jersey.
It seems nobody that matters takes it seriously anymore. OK, Egoi Martinez is a fine rider, but where are the times of Van Impe, Herrera, Chiappucci, Virenque, Rasmussen even? While the Green jersey is taken seriously by a score of top-level sprinters it seems all the top-level climbers now sniff at polka. I know, they all think they can still win the overall, but come on Frank, Carlos, Andy, Roman, Denis, Cadel, you know you would look good in it!

I think the polka dot jersey competition is quite intriguing..mainly because of the parcours..

1) its more open

2) it makes the race harder to control

Kléber

Trev36 wrote:

Losers:
Cancellara, for his big whinge in the Evans breakaway, Why did he join it if he thought won't succeeed?
Saxo Bank, because they could have used Evans & Cancellara in the break to put some hurt on Astana.

A bit harsh to call Cancellara a loser just because he disputed Evans presence in a break? After all he won the opening stage by a substantial margin and claimed the yellow jersey for the first week, including towing his entire team around the TTT.

Saxo seem to be losing to Astana. Look at Voigt yesterday, he was dropped on the Tourmalet, last year he set such a pace on this climb that he was able to get rid of GC contenders like Valverde.

GemmaAtkinson1

positives for me have been that iv really enjoyed the sucess of breakaways. Loved the ride by LLS t'other day. Also huge kudos to wiggins, really showing his determination and form after ditching track. Everytime i see an interview with him it seriously endears me to him, seems mega down to earth and chuffed with his performance.
negatives for me being the course of the race, a bit lame, seem to bank too much on later mountain stage.

all in all a good first week, would like to see a few more moves by yellow contendors this week rather than playing it safe.

singlespeedexplosif

poor route selection in the Hairyknees. Only one summit finish?
Contador now needs to crash or bonk spectacularly to miss out here - thanks mostly to the TTT. As Kleber says, it wasn't the existence of the TTT itself or the course, just blatant lack of preparation or teamwork from some of the teams. All over bar the shouting after that.
Great stuff from Wiggins although you have to think he'll tire and drop out of the top 10 come the Alps, and I fear for him on the Ventoux. Another year of climbing with the big boys and we'll see him up there at the end of the race IMO.
Cavendish - pretty much as expected.
Armstrong - opened his can of whupass and found it had passed its expiry date. Great comeback, sure. No chance of the win, and classless in his interviews.

Cumulonimbus

Mettan wrote:

Where's Voigt and O'Grady - Where's Saxo Bank, as a "Team" - they've got some great riders, but they've let Astana establish themselves "psychologically" as the "Men", at the front - they've almost let Astana feel as if they own the race - not good from a psychologocal point of view (or for morale). Saxo need to say (by sitting at the front more and asserting themselves), we're here, we're big guys aswell, we want to do things aswell - but they're not doing it enough. Astana's confidence "as a team unit" must be growing and growing.

Just rambling.

Voigt showed yesterday. Going from this site

http://www.sportsscientists.com/

it must have taken him about 58 minutes to go up the Tourmalet (he got dropped from the break and absorbed into the main field). Last year he was dropping climbers going up the Tourmalet and must have done it in about 45 minutes say. What a difference a year makes! However, i dont know whether he dropped back in order to give some cover for the Schlecks - this worked out in the end as he helped Andy chase back from a late puncture but in the end several other Saxobank riders also finished with the leaders. Cant help thinking that if he was feeling strong then he should have been able to stay with the pace fairly comfortably though given last year's effort.

Saxobank had to do some work for Cancellara early on so maybe they are just having a rest while Astana do a lot of work. Maybe they have some plans for the last week and are just saving their energy while Astana lose theirs.

cswebbo

I'm not too sure what to make of first week. Two great wins for Cav, delivered the goods under massive pressure. Wiggins going very well, hope he can last 3 weeks.

Unfortunately the ttt has runined the gc, as it always does.

I still think Lance can win. Now that Contador has shown his cards (lets face it 21 seconds on Arcalis was hardly conclusive) Lance knows not to be in front of Contador on the next mountain top finish. If Lance is faster than Contador in the time trial it will make Ventoux stage a classic.

Cumulonimbus

Away from the GC battle (or lack of) one of the winners must be BBox? Two stage wins must have exceeded their realistic expectations. They also have the greatest amount of prize money so far but that will change

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/bbox-bo ... money-list

singlespeedexplosif

And they win the bonus points for most comedy TTT ever...

teagar

Michel Wuyts, (as far as I'm concerned, the authority on cycling.....), seems to be really enjoying the current Pyranean set up. I tend to agree.

He's enjoying the fact that the racing has been much harder in the first 100km than usual, presumably because there is much more competition for a breakaway.

Lance himself even felt the need to attack yesterday in order to bring some control to the front of the race in the first 100km or so.

I think this kind of racing, though perhaps easier in the final 30km for the GC riders, is overall much harder. A lot of the riders have been complaining that because the first hour - hour and a half have been so hard, they've found it difficult to find their rhythm in the mid-part of the stages.

I've really enjoyed the racing at the beginning of the stages... It's been much more exciting and eventful, and each stage seems to be ridden a bit harder, like yesterday.

It's not GC racing, but it's still good racing!


Hushovd, Wiggins, and Ten Dam would be my pick for first week winners.

ombwiri

teagar wrote:

It's not GC racing, but it's still good racing!

I think that's the key for me. The GC will heat up as we get towards Paris but there hasn't been a single dull day so far.

carbonfiend

Yawn, giro was amazing this so far is boring waiting till ventoux for something to happen and the most exciting event being a break in a cross wind and petty squabble as to whole is the leader. For me this so far is the Tour de bore. Best thing so far is Cav vs Hushovd and BW

Moomaloid

ASO can't take any credit for any excitement in the first week. i think they got lucky with events. The first week is always usually a bore, so it has been a pleasant surprise this year. The TTT was surprisingly good to watch for someone who finds them tiresome.

So everything was going so well.... then we came to the Pyrenees. or did we? What an insult. 1 summit finish which didn't look particularly hard for the riders and the rest flat finishes. Really disappointing. Lets hope the Alps gets better. After all its the Mountains that we all wait for, lets hope we get some action.

Winners:

The French - Great to see them winning
Cav/Thor - Was always gonna be a good competition
Wiggo - Riding great!
Nocentini - Yellow.
Cancellara - Obvious.
Tony Martin - Awesome ride


Losers:

The Race
Boonen - Odd's on more crashes anyone?
Menchov - Is he just keeping his head down coz of the plasma thing?
Kreuziger - Where are you?


I'd like to give a special mention to Evans. Whilst he hasn't got that explosive kick to take distance on his attacks, at least he is attacking!

Edwin

Yep, fair play to Evans for giving it a go. I think the first week has been generally a lot more interesting than I thought it would be, it's just the last few days have got boring as the GC contenders seem happy to just ride round together and not try anything.
It's difficult to see how they think they can pull back 2 or 3 minutes in the last week, unless Contador has a disaster?

SpaceJunk

I think the ASO should have 19 mountains stages with summit finishes, a prologue and an ITT.

That way there won't be any 'boring' stages and everyone will be happy.

Personally, I've really enjoyed the Tour. Sure, we haven't seen the yellow jersey get moved between riders as much as in the last couple of years, and the TTT has put a lot of riders down on time, but what would the race be like if there wasn't a TTT??

Obviously, it's a bit pointless in speculating, but I can't help but wonder if all the GC riders would've done a 'Sastre', and just rode defensively until the Mount Ventoux stage anyway. Would Astana, Saxo-Bank want to defend yellow from Pyrenees on?

The TTT time gaps (and the ITT) will now force a lot of Astan's rivals to go on the offensive, and Astana aren't invincible, teams could gang up on them yet, and we might see more aggressive riding in the Alps now than what we would've got without a TTT.

I think the race is well poised heading into 2 week.

And best of all we've seen breakaways succeed. LLS win was great, as was the Pedrigo.