*Spoliers* Tour de France talk *Spoilers*

cjcp

Greg66 wrote:

I get the sense from his post-race interviews that he's walking on such a lot of new ground at the moment that he's not really sure what he's capable of, and so (naturally enough) he's riding a bit conservatively. Be fascinating to see him really give it some gas on a climb and see what happens.

+1. He seemed to be pulling Nibali and F Schleck. That's impressive. He's also asserting himself within the team (see the bit in the post-race interview when he refers to him telling the team that we need to be at the front when the climb starts).

Wiggins put 40 secs into A Schleck in the first TT over 15k, and 20 into LA. Over 50k, on paper, Wiggins should be good for a podium. I think the danger, so far as second place goes, is Kloden. He was marginally slower than Wiggo on Stage 1, but he's such a good TTer. If Astana want to be in with a better shout for the top two spots, LA should work for Kloden.

attica

cjcp wrote:

LA should work for Kloden.

He certainly seemed the stronger of the two today, can't help wondering if he was slowing because Lance was "on the rivet" (how many bingo points for that one?) in which case how much further up the road could he have got?

Jamey

Heh, I see Cav's 'written off' the green after his penalty:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_s ... 158113.stm

Bit convenient for him tbh. Was looking like he wouldn't get it anyway.

dirk_van_gently

Just some of the best bike racing I have seen in years.

Wiggns in yellow and Cavendish in green, that would be one hell of a coup for British cycling.

Is this the best tour since 89?

biondino

Dirk Van Gently wrote:

Just some of the best bike racing I have seen in years.

Wiggns in yellow and Cavendish in green, that would be one hell of a coup for British cycling.

Is this the best tour since 89?

Best in terms of British success, or best in terms of, er, being good? Yesterday was BRILLIANT but most of the rest has been relatively tedious. If Schleck/Wiggins/Armstrong/Sastre can do something at the sharp end, we might have a classic, but I foresee Bertie making more mountain breaks and becoming untouchable sooner rather than later.

cjcp

Dirk Van Gently wrote:

Just some of the best bike racing I have seen in years.

Wiggns in yellow and Cavendish in green, that would be one hell of a coup for British cycling.

Is this the best tour since 89?

Certainly great for the Brits. 2003 was a good one and, for a show of force, 2004 was enjoyable.

The yellow jersey comp was over in Arcalis, so while the demonstration of climbing is awesome, there hasn't yet been the sort of duel AC had with The Chicken in 2007. It seems to me that AC has to be attacked early in the climb if there's to be any chance of taking time out of him. LA has shown that he can't respond to bursts of acceleration, so there's a slight prospect AC could be exposed if the other GC contenders attack early in the climb and separate him from his team. But that's not going to happen.

Deadeye Duck

biondino wrote:

Dirk Van Gently wrote:

Just some of the best bike racing I have seen in years.

Wiggns in yellow and Cavendish in green, that would be one hell of a coup for British cycling.

Is this the best tour since 89?

Best in terms of British success, or best in terms of, er, being good? Yesterday was BRILLIANT but most of the rest has been relatively tedious. If Schleck/Wiggins/Armstrong/Sastre can do something at the sharp end, we might have a classic, but I foresee Bertie making more mountain breaks and becoming untouchable sooner rather than later.

I think bertie is just going to increase his lead as the tour goes on. He proved himself as being untouchable when making breaks up the hills, and I think LA has realised this now. Credit to LA for being where he is, because he is still beating a lot of people.

Cav's choice to abandon green is a wise one if you ask me. If he tried to pull anything back now he'll push himself too hard and damage his chances of finishing the tour. with the gap between Hincapie(sp?) and contador at what it is, unless Col-HTC, can pull back some major time over the next few stages, I think they'll abandon hopes of a team member on the GC podium, and concentrate on getting to the finish and possibly one last show of dominance at Champs Elysees

Agent57

Jamey wrote:

Bit convenient for him tbh. Was looking like he wouldn't get it anyway.

Was it? I thought he still looked like he had a great chance of getting it.

The local NW news this morning was reporting that Cav "missed out" on a stage win yesterday. No taking into account the fact that it was a mountain-top finish that he never had a hope in hell of contesting anyway. :roll:

dirk_van_gently

biondino wrote:

Best in terms of British success, or best in terms of, er, being good?

Both, maybe just me, but the tour became a bit jaded for me, the Armstrong years were just dull, no one to really challenge him, and his team was always just so strong.

The route this year has been innovative enough to shake up the status quo, and throw a few random factors into the tour. No drugs scandal (fingers crossed), and great British success has renewed my enthusiasm

Jamey

Agent57 wrote:

Jamey wrote:

Bit convenient for him tbh. Was looking like he wouldn't get it anyway.

Was it? I thought he still looked like he had a great chance of getting it.

On the flat stages Cav was winning and Thor was second or near enough to limit the amount of points Cav could gain.

On non-flat stages (which there are considerably more of) Cav was dropping out the back of the peloton and getting nothing while Thor was sticking with the pack and ensuring he finished in the points. He only needed a few points on these stages thanks to his tactic of limiting Cav's gains on the sprints by making sure he was second.

Since there are no more flat stages until Paris I think Hushovd would've taken it.

Deadeye Duck

Agent57 wrote:

The local NW news this morning was reporting that Cav "missed out" on a stage win yesterday. No taking into account the fact that it was a mountain-top finish that he never had a hope in hell of contesting anyway. :roll:

Agent57

Jamey wrote:

Agent57 wrote:

Jamey wrote:

Bit convenient for him tbh. Was looking like he wouldn't get it anyway.

Was it? I thought he still looked like he had a great chance of getting it.

On the flat stages Cav was winning and Thor was second or near enough to limit the amount of points Cav could gain.

On non-flat stages (which there are considerably more of) Cav was dropping out the back of the peloton and getting nothing while Thor was sticking with the pack and ensuring he finished in the points. He only needed a few points on these stages thanks to his tactic of limiting Cav's gains on the sprints by making sure he was second.

Since there are no more flat stages until Paris I think Hushovd would've taken it.

But even so, the contest was close. All it would have taken would be for Thor to have a particularly bad day or a crash, or for Cav and Columbia to make a point of contesting the en route sprints (indeed, I think Cav made mention of doing just that in one of his post-race interviews). I don't think it was by any means a certainty that the contest was over. It does seem to be so now, due to the DQ. That's a shame, particularly because I don't think Cav did actually do much to warrant such a severe penalty.

DonDaddyD

cjcp wrote:

LA has shown that he can't respond to bursts of acceleration, so there's a slight prospect AC could be exposed if the other GC contenders attack early in the climb and separate him from his team. But that's not going to happen.

Not that I know much, but I think it might. Putting my hyper-aggressive riding tendencies - only to suffer 5ft down the road - aside, its exactly the kind of tatic that should be used to dispose Bertie (big name drug abuse scandle not withstanding).

Contador has been consistently and largely unprotected during the majority of the stages. Even if he becomes the 'official' team leader his current tactics don't really allow for his team to ride for him or protect him - He's not exactly riding like a team player and that may even go as far as making the team resentful and leaving to fight the cold and other riders alone. He could get seperated and swallowed up by the other GC contenders.

Again, not that I know much but its possible that Contador can only remain safe and allowed to attack (in the fashion he has) if he and Armstrong (or Kloden) stay at the front devouring any other attacks like when they (Contador and Armstrong) both flanked Cadel Evans a few days back. Then with 5km or so Armstrong allows Contador to ride off while he (Armstrong and co) ride defensively holding the pack/peleton back.

Also, I can't see Armstrong riding for Kloden, playing second fiddle, may be but third? Nope.

Also if Contador keeps attacking like this (we've seen it twice now) is there a chance he could burn out and not defend his lead?

jonginge

DonDaddyD wrote:

cjcp wrote:

LA has shown that he can't respond to bursts of acceleration, so there's a slight prospect AC could be exposed if the other GC contenders attack early in the climb and separate him from his team. But that's not going to happen.

Not that I know much, but I think it might. Putting my hyper-aggressive riding tendencies - only to suffer 5ft down the road - aside, its exactly the kind of tatic that should be used to dispose Bertie (big name drug abuse scandle not withstanding).

Contador has been consistently and largely unprotected during the majority of the stages. Even if he becomes the 'official' team leader his current tactics don't really allow for his team to ride for him or protect him - He's not exactly riding like a team player and that may even go as far as making the team resentful and leaving to fight the cold and other riders alone. He could get seperated and swallowed up by the other GC contenders.

Again, not that I know much but its possible that Contador can only remain safe and allowed to attack (in the fashion he has) if he and Armstrong (or Kloden) stay at the front devouring any other attacks like when they (Contador and Armstrong) both flanked Cadel Evans a few days back. Then with 5km or so Armstrong allows Contador to ride off while he (Armstrong and co) ride defensively holding the pack/peloton back.

Also, I can't see Armstrong riding for Kloden, playing second fiddle, may be but third? Nope.

Also if Contador keeps attacking like this (we've seen it twice now) is there a chance he could burn out and not defend his lead?

Saxo bank tried quite hard to unsettle AC yesterday. They set a ferocious pace at the foot of the climb and then Schleck Sr tried an attack to further soften it up. AC responded to that immediately, without even trying. He did a look around the group and when Schleck Jr was at the back and a bit boxed he went up the road. Andy couldn't grab the wheel and Bertie was free to fly: masterful stuff.

I think Contador has been the perfect professional, all the time playing the part of team leader whatever else was going on around. The team leader is perfectly entitled to p!ss off up the road when he sees his rivals are in trouble.

It's possible that Contador could blow as there are some long hilly stages to come before ventoux. He did in Paris-Nice due to not eating enough and not having good team support (a weak Astana supported Bertie during the spring stage races). I don't think he'll make the same mistake here, though.

Go Twiggo! What a ride. Podium very much a possibility so long as he doesn't have a bad day. Fantastic stuff

fungus_the_muffin_man

If Contador was to blow ( fingers crossed ) and its a big IF. Wiggo is 22/1 on bet365 to win outright. not bad odds for an off the cuff outside bet.

Stone Glider

Yes JG I noticed how AC took a long look around before he launched his attack yeseterday. As you say "the prefect professional".

Mr Wiggins seems to have arrived in a whole new world on this tour. It is great to see his wonder as he explores what he can do. It is a pity that the DQ has ruined the plan for Cav. However he still has Plan A to work with, Paris and a sprint win up the Champs- Elysees would be good.

Great Tour

cjcp

Agent57 wrote:

Jamey wrote:

Agent57 wrote:

Jamey wrote:

Bit convenient for him tbh. Was looking like he wouldn't get it anyway.

Was it? I thought he still looked like he had a great chance of getting it.

On the flat stages Cav was winning and Thor was second or near enough to limit the amount of points Cav could gain.

On non-flat stages (which there are considerably more of) Cav was dropping out the back of the peloton and getting nothing while Thor was sticking with the pack and ensuring he finished in the points. He only needed a few points on these stages thanks to his tactic of limiting Cav's gains on the sprints by making sure he was second.

Since there are no more flat stages until Paris I think Hushovd would've taken it.

But even so, the contest was close. All it would have taken would be for Thor to have a particularly bad day or a crash, or for Cav and Columbia to make a point of contesting the en route sprints (indeed, I think Cav made mention of doing just that in one of his post-race interviews). I don't think it was by any means a certainty that the contest was over. It does seem to be so now, due to the DQ. That's a shame, particularly because I don't think Cav did actually do much to warrant such a severe penalty.

The contest was very close, but, before the DQ, four points separated the TH and Cavendish. There are intermediate sprints on stages 18, 20 and 21 which Cavendish would have been been in with a good chance of winning, although the second IS on stage 20 would have been a problem. But, against that, you have to wonder how much TH had in his tank after his effort on Stage 13.

Cavendish still has a chance, but it's a slim one.

Jamey

The vast majority of intermediate points on this tour have been mopped up by breakways. What makes you think the next set of stages will be (or would have been, if you ignore the DQ) any different for the Cav/Thor battle?

cjcp

Columbia would have to have chased down the breaks, certainly, and it's questionable how much help they'd get, but the previous mopping up was done before Cav was DQ'd.

I'll keep my fingers crossed...

Eau Rouge

Jamey wrote:

Agent57 wrote:

On non-flat stages (which there are considerably more of) Cav was dropping out the back of the peloton and getting nothing while Thor was sticking with the pack and ensuring he finished in the points.

He did that once, when the peleton was too wet and tired to really up the pace. It's not like Hushovd is actually any better at climbing that Cavendish is. They finished together in the same group yesterday and probably would have done ont he rest of the mountain stages too.
Without the DQ, Thod would only have had a 4 point lead. I think there has only been one stage when the peleton en masse passed through an intermediate sprint, and Cavendish beat Hushovd in those. Which of them was going to be in green in Paris was far from decided, and would probably have come down to the line in Paris. It looks like it won't now.

cjcp wrote:

certainly

Who's been listening to too much Sean Kelly then
With 4 points to make up, and a 5 point gap from 1st to 2nd, there would have been no need for Columbia to worry about breaks taking intermediate sprints had the DQ not happened. Hushovd would have had to go out of his way to stay in Green, Cav just needed to keep winning the flat stages. Now things are different, and as long as Hushovd if there or there abouts in the few remaining flat stages, coupled with inevitable breaks taking intermediate points, Cavendish is very unlikely to win it now.

always_tyred

There is a scenario, a bit like what happened to Cadel Evans last year, where Schleck A, Schleck B, Evans and Sastre all have a go at various points on a multi-mountain stage (Wednesday?). Contador is the only guy who has to respond to all of them. In principle, this is the way to break the strongest guy. Unfortunately since so many of them are lemons in a time trial, this year, he doesn't infact have to respond to all of them.

So, you know how LA has said he'll work for AC - what happens if Wednesday's stage sees all the GC contenders finish close to each other and he's going into the ITT 1:30 down. AC is better than he was on the time trial bike, but its not impossible that he could lose a chunk of time to Wiggo and LA.

So, LA goes into the Ventoux stage, where he's never won (silly deal with Pantani) less than a minute down. What happens next?

DonDaddyD

Someone explain Time Trials to me and the skills/tactics necessary to be successful, please?

Rich158

DonDaddyD wrote:

Someone explain Time Trials to me and the skills/tactics necessary to be successful, please?

It's easy, get to the point you're about to throw up as quickly as possible, and hold it there for the requisite distance :shock:

Eau Rouge

DonDaddyD wrote:

Someone explain Time Trials to me and the skills/tactics necessary to be successful, please?

Starting with the last place rider, each rider sets off all on their own to cover the course, at 1 minute intervals, and everybody gets an individual time. Drafting, wheel sucking, pacing etc are all not allowed. It's everybody on their own against the clock.
Hence, you get quite large time differences, big enough to shake up the GC a good bit.

They usually use full-on aero TT bikes for those stages.

Contador has seriously improved his TT'ing recently. It's entirely possible he could actually win that stage and take even more time out of everybody.
As Rich says, there are no real tactics. Go as fast as you can while still finishing the course.

shoulder_of_orion

This race is all over bar injury or positive dope test.

It is interesting that on Betfair, in their "Winner w/out Contador" market, the top three riders are:

1) Andy Shleck
2) Bradders
3) Lance

Suggesting that Lance will get squeezed off the podium. I guess he will struggle on Ventoux but the ITT will be really interesting as he always used to nail those...

tailwindhome

Stone Glider wrote:

Yes JG I noticed how AC took a long look around before he launched his attack yeseterday. As you say "the prefect professional".

Yep, always take a good look before launching an attack

greg66_tri_v2.0

Anyone see the interview with Dave Brailsford on the ITV4 prog this evening?

Having talked around the fact that he's looking for top Euro talent as well as Brits:

"So, Alberto Contador. He's very unsettled where he is. Would you have him?"

"No."

"No" was delivered in a flat tone of "No, and not even if you wrapped him in free money."

Does he know something, I wonder? Or is that reading too much into it?

Coriander

Greg66 wrote:

Anyone see the interview with Dave Brailsford on the ITV4 prog this evening?

Having talked around the fact that he's looking for top Euro talent as well as Brits:

"So, Alberto Contador. He's very unsettled where he is. Would you have him?"

"No."

"No" was delivered in a flat tone of "No, and not even if you wrapped him in free money."

Does he know something, I wonder? Or is that reading too much into it?

I saw that and was intrigued as well. Maybe he just knows that he couldn't afford him? Or maybe he figures there's no point creating a team around someone who will always win, giving little opportunity for the up and coming Brits to shine...???

cjcp

On yesterday's show, he said he rejected someone (a top rider) after seeing their bio passport.

That was a bit odd given that Dekker was excluded from the Rabobank team for problems over his bio passport. So, was it someone in Le Tour or not?

No positives yet. That would normally be a positive (excuse the pun), but is it?

cjcp

Coriander wrote:

Greg66 wrote:

Anyone see the interview with Dave Brailsford on the ITV4 prog this evening?

Having talked around the fact that he's looking for top Euro talent as well as Brits:

"So, Alberto Contador. He's very unsettled where he is. Would you have him?"

"No."

"No" was delivered in a flat tone of "No, and not even if you wrapped him in free money."

Does he know something, I wonder? Or is that reading too much into it?

I saw that and was intrigued as well. Maybe he just knows that he couldn't afford him? Or maybe he figures there's no point creating a team around someone who will always win, giving little opportunity for the up and coming Brits to shine...???

Thing is, he needs these top Euro riders to help groom the up and coming Brits on a fast track basis. Dan Lloyd is 27 odd and, ideally, we need riders like him coming through a lot earlier. For example, Haussler is 25. Guys like Kristian House and Ben Swift will learn from seasoned pros. It could be PR of course, but it's a serious thing to say.